Belenenses vs Sporting Braga
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Today’s free tip is in the Portuguese Liga 1 encounter between Belenenses and Sporting Braga.
This tip is largely about the first goal. Belenenses are the same team they have been for many years now. They play football like a typical Lisbon club in the sense that they like to make quick, short passes, and they’re pretty damn atrocious at breaking teams down with any consistency. Still, put them on a nice pitch, and invite them to attack, and they’ll do some damage.
However, Belenenses lack quality, and thus never really hurt teams. Their fighting nature makes them a bit painful to displace, at least at home, and they’ve not shipped many goals this season for that reason. Much like battling Tondela, they know what it takes to survive relegation, Belenenses, no doubt with memories of the division below still in mind. I think it’s fair to say that they’ve not really had many tough games this season though, the Lisbon club. Even those that would normally provide stiff tests have had ‘reasons’ not to do so.
I mean, SL Benfica and new-look Famalicao beat them, but Rio Ave are out of sorts at the moment, Vitoria Guimaraes’ players looked like they’d never seen one another at the start of the season, Boavista only function well with space etc. I don’t want to detract anything from Belenenses’ tenacity and organisation; fair play to them on that front. I just think that they’ve had the rub of the green, if you like. When it’s come to good attacking teams getting at them properly, they’ve generally lost – and that’s what I expect to happen to them tonight.
Sporting Braga have a better record of winning this fixture away from home than they do at home, curiously enough. Seldom have they looked more likely to do so than now either. I appreciate that they were in Greece mid-week but honestly, they didn’t have to do much to win that match; AEK Athens were only too happen to lose it. Sporting Braga barely had to break sweat in that one, and got so bored with their comfortable lead that they felt compelled to actually give their hosts a goal with defender (think it was Tormena) playing the ball back to Magalhaes – but too short. Ex-FC Porto man Oliveira nipped it, took it around the goalkeeper, and buried it. It changed nothing, though – Sporting Braga were very comfortable in that game, and should have returned to Portugal without any real signs of fatigue ahead of this match.
With that win, Sporting Braga booked their place in the knockout stage of the UEFA Europa League, meaning the mid-week game against Zorya Lugansk is utterly irrelevant, so I would be surprised to see tonight’s visitors rotate their squad here. I just don’t see any reason for them to do it. For me, the big question is whether they can break Belenenses down and get that first goal because if they can, they should win it comfortably. Even with Fonte still out, Ruiz not settled, and Paulinho yet to score this season, I firmly believe that Sporting Braga can and will take the lead early enough to give themselves a good shot at clearing the handicap here. They’ve got too many proven creators at this level to falter, in my opinion. I’ve no idea how Belenenses are going to contain any one of Galeano, Medeiros, the Hortas, Castro, Fransergio, or even Gaitan/Novais, should they make an appearance.
Therefore, I anticipate that Sporting Braga will take the lead at some stage, forcing Belenenses to be that bit more adventurous, and then should be able to do enough to handicap their hosts. Sure, Sporting Braga are charitable enough to give the odd goal away but they usually have Belenenses on toast, and I’ve seen nothing of late to suggest that this game will be any different.
Verdict: Sporting Braga to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 22/25.
Sunday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Austrian Bundesliga:
Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna
Swarovski Tirol vs Wolfsberger AC
LASK vs SV Ried
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Racing Genk vs Antwerp
Germinal Beerschot vs AS Eupen
Standard de Liege vs KV Mechelen
KV Oostende vs AA Gent
Brazilian Serie A:
Gremio vs Vasco da Gama
Atletico Mineiro vs Internacional
Sao Paulo vs Sport Recife
Bulgarian A PFG:
Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia
Slavia Sofia vs Ludogorets Razgrad
Croatian Prva Liga:
Slaven Koprivnica vs Dinamo Zagreb
Hajduk Split vs Rijeka
Czech Republic Liga 1:
Zbrojovka Brno vs Ceske Budejovice
Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice
Sparta Prague vs Slavia Prague
Danish Superligaen:
SonderjyskE vs FC Nordsjaelland
FC Copenhagen vs AC Horsens
Lyngby vs Randers
English Premier League:
West Bromwich Albion vs Crystal Palace
Sheffield United vs Leicester City
Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal
Liverpool vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Flora Paide vs Nomme Kalju
Flora Tallinn vs FCI Levadia Tallinn
French Ligue 1:
Lille OSC vs AS Monaco
Angers SCO vs Lorient
Girondins de Bordeaux vs Stade Brestois
Dijon FCO vs AS Saint-Etienne
FC Nantes Atlantique vs Racing Club Strasbourg
Stade de Reims vs OGC Nice
Metz vs Olympique Lyonnais
German Bundesliga:
Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart
Schalke 04 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
German Bundesliga 2:
Paderborn 07 vs Nurnberg
Erzgebirge Aue vs Jahn Regensburg
Würzburger Kickers vs SV Sandhausen
Hungarian Liga 1:
Budapest Honved vs MTK Budapest
Paksi SE vs Fehervar
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Hadera vs Hapoel Kfar Saba
Italian Serie A:
Hellas Verona vs Cagliari
Parma vs Benevento
AS Roma vs Sassuolo
Udinese vs Atalanta Bergamo
Crotone vs SSC Napoli
Sampdoria vs AC Milan
Italian Serie B:
Reggiana vs Monza
Vicenza vs Cosenza
Dutch Eredivisie:
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Heracles Almelo
AZ Alkmaar vs FC Groningen
FC Utrecht vs ADO Den Haag
SC Heerenveen vs PSV Eindhoven
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Bodo/Glimt vs Stabaek
Kristiansund vs Odd
Brann Bergen vs Sarpsborg 08
Stromsgodset vs Haugesund
Mjondalen vs Start Kristiansand
Sandefjord vs Viking Stavanger
Molde FK vs Aalesund FK
Portuguese Liga 1:
CD Nacional de Madeira vs Santa Clara
Rio Ave vs Boavista
Belenenses vs Sporting Braga
SL Benfica vs Pacos de Ferreira
Portuguese Liga 2:
Vilafranquense vs Estoril
FC Porto II vs Academica de Coimbra
Varzim vs Cova de Piedade
Russian Premier League:
FK Rostov vs FK Ufa
Dinamo Moscow vs Arsenal Tula
CSKA Moscow vs FK Khimki
Spanish Primera Liga:
Granada CF vs Huesca
CA Osasuna vs Real Betis Balompie
Villarreal CF vs Elche
Deportivo Alaves vs Real Sociedad
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Elfsborg Boras vs AIK Solna
IFK Norrkoping vs Helsingborg
IFK Goteborg vs Sirius
Djurgarden vs Varberg
Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken Goteborg
Falkenberg vs Mjallby Solvesborg
Orebro vs Hammarby
Malmo FF vs Ostersunds FK
Swiss Super League:
Luzern vs Young Boys Bern
FC Zurich vs Lausanne Sport
Turkish Super Lig:
Fatih Karagumruk vs Rizespor
Antalyaspor vs Ankaragucu
Denizlispor vs Fenerbahce
Enjoy your free betting tips!