Corinthians vs Sao Paulo
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Today’s free tip is in the Brazilian Serie A derby between Corinthians and Sao Paulo.
It’s derby day in Sao Paulo, and this particular edition features two of Serie A’s more boring teams. As the league table clearly indicates, one is a lot more effective than the other, which is Sao Paulo. I half-expected a transitional campaign from their neighbours, given that they finally brought in an attack-minded manager. However, he was sacked soon enough because…well, it’s Brazil; that’s what they do! Now Corinthians are back to playing ultra defensive football under ex-Atletico Goianiense boss Mancini. They’ve looked pretty good playing that way thus far but it’s just a honeymoon period; it’ll all go to shit again soon enough. It’s nice to be reminded that their midfielders can close opponents down once in a while though, right?
Their smokescreen doesn’t do anything for me here though; they’re still a big club, but they do not play football well enough to be respected by the better Brazilian teams. That’s a general truth anyway, but when you factor in their absentees for tonight’s derby, it becomes that bit more poignant. Again, I do like their defensive shape; they’re good at it, and they should be, because Corinthians have only really tried to defend for about ten years now. That’s what the team was built upon, so returning to a defensive setup under Mancinni is always going to tick a few boxes, to say the least.
This team does not threaten opponents, though. They should, given the names they’ve got, but they simply don’t commit enough men forward, which makes them easier to defend against. True enough, they’ve still got some individuals that can win them points but it generally won’t happen against good teams. I think that’s especially true tonight, given who they’re without for this derby, which is Avelar, Jo, Jemerson, Cafu, Ruan, Santos, and Mantuan, whilst Boselli and Mosquito are doubts. That’s one of their best defenders, their best striker, their new defender, their new attacker, and their backup striker and creator are doubts. I think it’s plain to see why I doubt Corinthians here.
Sao Paulo have no continental distractions to speak of, given that they managed to embarrass themselves out of the Copa Sudamericana against Atletico Lanus of Argentina, somehow conceding an abundance of goals despite almost never being without the ball. Still, it’s left them free to focus on Serie A, and that’s worked well for them so far; much better than I thought they’d do. Sao Paulo are currently doing what Corinthians have been trying to do for years, which is to grind the rest of Serie A into submission. The difference is that Sao Paulo are making it work under boss Diniz though.
There are several reasons for that. One is that they’ve got selfless, hard-working players like forward Pablo, that won’t give opponents an inch, helping to offset Sao Paulo’s general apathy for closing opponents down. Another is that they’re in possession of some terrific creators whether it’s playmakers like Hernanes and Tche Tche, or a good crosser like Dani Alves. Another is that Luciano is in the form of his life up front, and another is that they’ve chanced across three wonderkids, namely Igor Gomes, Gabriel, and Brenner. That, fused with a defence of meatheads that don’t lose many physical battles, has proven very effective for Sao Paulo this season.
Honestly, this team does not have to work hard to win games. They effortlessly glide through matches with the patience of saints when it comes to waiting for opportunities to arise. They bore me to tears sometimes, Sao Paulo, and yet they almost always score. Corinthians won’t have the first clue how to deal with a team like that; they struggle enough with the lesser denizens of Brazilian football! With so many absentees, and their opponents in ultra efficient mode, I can only see one outcome here.
For me, it’s a Sao Paulo win at evens.
Verdict: Sao Paulo to win at evens.
Sunday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Austrian Bundesliga:
Rapid Vienna vs Swarovski Tirol
Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna
Salzburg vs LASK
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Antwerp vs Club Brugge
AA Gent vs Standard de Liege
KV Mechelen vs Waasland-Beveren
Brazilian Serie A:
Flamengo vs Santos
Corinthians vs Sao Paulo
Sport Recife vs Coritiba
Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense
Bulgarian A PFG:
CSKA Sofia vs Botev Vratsa
Ludogorets Razgrad vs Cherno More Varna
Croatian Prva Liga:
Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Slaven Koprivnica
Rijeka vs Dinamo Zagreb
Czech Republic Liga 1:
Slovacko vs Sparta Prague
Slavia Prague vs Slovan Liberec
Danish Superligaen:
AC Horsens vs AGF
Aalborg BK vs Lyngby
FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Copenhagen
Brondby vs SonderjyskE
English Premier League:
Southampton vs Sheffield United
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham Hotspur
Fulham vs Liverpool
Arsenal vs Burnley
Leicester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion
French Ligue 1:
OGC Nice vs Stade Rennais
Stade Brestois vs Stade de Reims
Lorient vs Nimes Olympique
FC Nantes Atlantique vs Dijon FCO
Racing Club Strasbourg vs Metz
Lille OSC vs Girondins de Bordeaux
Paris Saint-Germain vs Olympique Lyonnais
German Bundesliga:
Augsburg vs Schalke 04
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs TSG Hoffenheim
German Bundesliga 2:
St. Pauli vs Erzgebirge Aue
Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Dusseldorf
Nurnberg vs Wurzburger Kickers
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Osnabruck
Hungarian Liga 1:
Mezokovesd-Zsory vs Paksi SE
MTK Budapest vs Diosgyori VTK
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Be’er Sheva vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs Hapoel Haifa
Italian Serie A:
Cagliari vs Internazionale
Atalanta Bergamo vs ACF Fiorentina
Bologna vs AS Roma
SSC Napoli vs Sampdoria
Genoa vs Juventus
AC Milan vs Parma
Dutch Eredivisie:
Vitesse Arnhem vs SC Heerenveen
VVV Venlo vs Feyenoord Rotterdam
Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam
PSV Eindhoven vs FC Utrecht
FC Twente Enschede vs AZ Alkmaar
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Sandefjord vs Odd
Rosenborg BK vs Molde FK
Stabaek vs Kristiansund
Russian Premier League:
Tambov vs Rubin Kazan
FK Krasnodar vs Lokomotiv Moscow
Akhmat Grozny vs FK Rostov
CSKA Moscow vs Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast
Spanish Primera Liga:
Real Sociedad vs Eibar
Real Betis Balompie vs Villarreal CF
Elche vs Granada CF
Barcelona CF vs Levante CF
Swedish Allsvenskan Relegation/Promotion Play-Off:
Kalmar FF vs Jonkopings Sodra
Swiss Super League:
Lausanne Sport vs St. Gallen
Lugano vs FC Zurich
Young Boys Bern vs Servette
Turkish Super Lig:
BB Erzurumspor vs Genclerbirligi
Istanbul BB vs Gazisehir Gaziantep
Alanyaspor vs Besiktas JK
Enjoy your free betting tips!