Lille OSC vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam
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Today’s free tip is in the UEFA Europa League encounter between Lille OSC and AFC Ajax Amsterdam.
The risk with this pick is Lille’s finishing. It cost them against Brest at weekend, but it’s cost them against Ajax in the past too. I remember both UEFA Champions League meetings between Galtier’s men and Ajax, and despite dominating both games, Lille lost them both because they didn’t convert their opportunities well enough, and they were too sloppy at the other end. This is a somewhat different Lille team now though, so I’d like to think that such problems have been addressed. Yilmaz’s continued absence in attack does bother me, as David still doesn’t seem to cope with the pressure of being the designated goal-getter. With draw no bet though, I’m happy to take a chance on Lille tonight.
I’m a big fan of Galtier, as you all know by now, I’m sure. His teams are very, very good, especially in Ligue 1, but he’s got the nous to be smart in Europe too. Lille do not have boatloads of cash to spend but what they do have, they invest wisely, and they sell players for big profits. The French media recently reported that they’ve agreed to sell another young gun for big bucks, namely Dutch defender Botman, although they were decidedly coy on stating where he was off to. Like all Lille youngsters though, I would advise caution before over-hyping such a player. He’s had a good season, yes, but Galtier is very good at getting the right players into the right positions. Once they leave his mentorship, they seldom impress, and I find it hard to believe that Ajax (the team that sold Botman to Lille in the first place) would have sold him for 8 million Euros if they knew that playing him would showcase his talents and earn them a lot more money.
Time will tell, though. For now, I like the Lille setup a great deal. They’re very flexible with excellent midfield maintainers, great speed out wide, and an all-round attacking intent that I love to see, even from their centre-backs. They do sometimes struggle to break teams down but that’s where Turkish star Yazici comes in, who has been terrific this season, both from open play and set pieces. They seldom struggle to control games, Lille, and that tends to mean that what they say, goes. I do need them to convert some chances here though, and fortunately enough, Ajax are rather charitable defensively. The bigger question for me is whether Lille can keep Ajax out or not though.
Ajax’s style is predictable, but they have some very good players so it doesn’t always matter. They enter the game in France with lots of confidence because they’ve not only won a lot of games in a row, but the manner of those victories breeds confidence. They’ve not always been great, you see, but they’ve fought through it and won against the odds from time to time. That helps to build character and mental strength. Credit must be given where it’s due; for me, this is the best Ajax team I’ve seen for a while now, and yes, I am including the squad with de Ligt and de Jong in it. That team was over-reliant on a couple of players; this team has a lot of good players, and I like their balance a lot more because of it.
Take Promes, for example. He’s not a footballer I particularly rate because he’s not very good. However, he’s fast, a decent dribbler, and he works hard. Ten Haag uses him correctly with that in mind; not relying on him for anything other than to distract defenders. They’ve got wonderkid Antony, who has typically amazing Brazilian feet, big Haller as a target man if the usual approach isn’t working, and class act Tadic to run the show, who just gets better with age. They’ve also recently loaned Idrissi from Sevilla to keep their options open, and don’t even get me started on their emerging talents like Traore and Kudus, the latter of which has been injured all season but is a very serious talent.
I love the Ajax enthusiasm, energy, and desire to play good football. Much like PSV though, I am seldom convinced that they’re smart enough to play in Europe nowadays, in the nicest way possible. I think Ajax are better placed than PSV to do it, but I still don’t think that they’re good at it. They recorded some good results in their UEFA Champions League group back in 2020 but I lost count of the amount of times that they got let off the hook by their opponents simply not converting their chances well enough. At no stage did I feel like Ajax outsmarted any opponent, and that’s a worry tonight because they’re up against a really clever, organised Lille team. They’d be much better when facing a Young Boys Bern or a Bayer 04 Leverkusen, in my opinion. Lille looks a bit too much for them.
This is a good Ajax team though, and my tip does need Lille to be at or close to their best. See, if these two teams go into auto-pilot mode for some reason, then Ajax won’t lose because at an ‘average’ level, they’re better than Lille. However, if Lille’s players do precisely as instructed by Galtier, I believe they’re smart enough to not only make it hard for Ajax to carve out good opportunities, but also to use their speed properly at the other end and hurt their opponents. Therefore, I’m on Lille with draw no bet.
Verdict: Lille OSC to win with draw no bet at 83/100.
Thursday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
UEFA Europa League:
Wolfsberger AC vs Tottenham Hotspur
Dynamo Kyiv vs Club Brugge
Real Sociedad vs Manchester United
Red Star Belgrade vs AC Milan
Slavia Prague vs Leicester City
Sporting Braga vs AS Roma
FK Krasnodar vs Dinamo Zagreb
Young Boys Bern vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PSV Eindhoven
SL Benfica vs Arsenal
Antwerp vs Rangers
Salzburg vs Villarreal
Molde FK vs TSG Hoffenheim
Granada vs SSC Napoli
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk
Lille OSC vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs MS Ashdod
Bnei Sakhnin vs Beitar Jerusalem
Portuguese Liga 2:
Sporting Covilha vs Mafra
Enjoy your free betting tips!