Genclerbirligi vs Istanbul BB
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Today’s free tip is in the Turkush Super Lig encounter between Genclerbirligi and reigning champions Istanbul BB.
Things aren’t good for either team right now, to be frank. The home team appear to have given up on surviving the drop, and their opponents look set to complete the worst title defence in Turkish history by battling to avoid joining Genclerbirligi in the division below next season, which is a journey that has already cost Buruk Okan his job despite his outstanding work with the visitors last season. Genclerbirligi are actually on their third manager of the season, having sacked Nobre in November, and Kaplan in February, so survival now rests in the hands of Altiparmak.
Other than the quality gap, the difference between these two sides right now is work-rate. I can scarcely believe I’m about to say this, but here goes: the mercenaries of Istanbul BB are putting more of a shift in than their hosts today are. Considering that Istanbul BB have barely given a toss about any game since exiting the UEFA Champions League, that should tell you how much of a sorry state the Ankara hosts are in. They genuinely are playing like they’ve already been relegated, and I just don’t know what they can do to prevent such from happening now.
They’ve still got some notable absentees, Genclerbirligi, like Stancu and Sio in attack, and Toure in defence, all of which are regulars. It’s not about absentees, though. There’s a mental weakness in this squad that I’ve not seen for a while, and it’s derailing them. Personally, I thought that replacing Sessegnon this season would have been their hardest challenge but no, Da Motta, Yildirim, and Candeias have stepped up to the plate really well. No, the problem is mental, and I’m sorry to say that it’s a far harder issue to solve than replacing a departed player.
Even the arrival of Sandro Lima in attack hasn’t changed anything for the capital club. They don’t penetrate defences due to a lack of willing runners, and a lack of confidence stops players from being that bit bolder. They’re not just on a bad run, Genclerbirligi, but they’re dropping points against teams they should be beating. Lately, they’ve failed to beat ten-men Yeni Malatyaspor, and then thrown away a one-goal advantage to lose 2-1 against a ten-men Gazisehir Gaziantep. They aren’t hard fixtures; they’re off to face Fenerbahce and Alanyaspor in the coming weeks, and they are hard fixtures. To summarise, Genclerbirligi are short on players, short on confidence, and are now onto their third manager of the season so it’s pretty straightforward to understand why I don’t fancy them right now.
I won’t deny that I’ve spent most of 2021 opposing Istanbul BB – and rightly so, too. I don’t believe they’ve turned a corner even now, and should they win today, it would please me – but I still wouldn’t trust them next week either. This is a team that no longer cares, and it’s not hard to understand why. They may have mercenaries, Istanbul BB, but they were initially built upon loyalty and togetherness under Avci. That mantle was carried forward by Okan and, as a unit, Istanbul BB were terrific. Tactically, they’re one of the best Turkish teams I’ve seen. That’s how they won the title last season; by outsmarting teams, and that’s usually not a viable Super Lig route.
However, this season the club made it clear that the old ways were no longer the reality. They began to prioritise the UEFA Champions League, all but abandoning their title defence. It got to the point where Europe was all that mattered so when they inevitably went out, their remaining matches lost all purpose, you know? The title wasn’t even a conceivable pipe-dream at that point, let alone a lofty finish! Things spiralled, and as is always the case, the manager took the fall for it. I don’t think you can blame mercenaries for not caring, though – you know what you’re getting with folks like that. The club never had an issue with it before, but suddenly they do, so the club must surely realise that the changeable variant here is, in fact, the club, not the manager.
Anyway, it cost a good manager his job, and now Kocaman is in charge, formerly of Fenerbahce fame. He knows Turkish football inside out, although I’m inclined to doubt that he can get anything more out of this team than Okan could. The signs since he took over are completely indifferent to when Okan was there, which should come as a surprise to nobody. This team will do what it wants to, basically. Much like their hosts, they’re lacking in confidence, lacking in belief, and lacking in effectiveness. However, Istanbul BB are at least still working hard as a unit, as I said above, and that trumps where Genclerbirligi are at, to be frank. An average Super Lig team that works hard can stop Istanbul BB, but they do have to work hard in order to do it. Genclerbirligi simply don’t look capable of doing that right now.
The above leaves me believing that, as bad as both teams are for different reasons, Istanbul BB are still in a far better place than their hosts. Indeed, as our site’s Turkish representative said, “at least Istanbul BB are still a team!”. That, fused with the obvious quality gap, was enough for me to back the away win today at 83/100.
Verdict: Istanbul BB to win at 83/100.
Sunday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Australian A-League:
Wellington Phoenix vs Perth Glory
Western United vs Western Sydney Wanderers
Austrian Bundesliga:
Salzburg vs St. Polten
SV Ried vs Wolfsberger AC
Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Royal Excel Mouscron vs Standard de Liege
Club Brugge vs Zulte-Waregem
RSC Anderlecht vs KV Mechelen
Racing Genk vs Cercle Brugge
Bulgarian A PFG:
Etar vs CSKA 1948 Sofia
Beroe vs Ludogorets Razgrad
Levski Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv
Croatian Prva Liga:
NK Osijek vs Gorica
Dinamo Zagreb vs Rijeka
Czechia Liga 1:
Ceske Budejovice vs Mlada Boleslav
Karvina vs Zbrojovka Brno
Slavia Prague vs Banik Ostrava
Danish Superligaen:
Randers vs Lyngby
Brondby vs FC Copenhagen
FC Midtjylland vs AGF
FC Nordsjaelland vs AC Horsens
Vejle vs OB
English Premier League:
West Bromwich Albion vs Newcastle United
Liverpool vs Fulham
Manchester City vs Manchester United
Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace
Faroese Betrideildin:
B68 Toftir vs KI
07 Vestur Sorvagur vs B36 Torshavn
HB Torshavn vs NSI Runavik
Vikingur Gota vs TB
French Coupe de France:
GFC Ajaccio vs Lille OSC
Canet Roussillon vs Olympique de Marseille
German Bundesliga:
Koln vs Werder Bremen
Arminia Bielefeld vs Union Berlin
German Bundesliga 2:
Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Nurnberg
Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Sandhausen
Hungarian Liga 1:
Budapest Honved vs Varda SE
Zalaegerszegi TE vs Ferencvaros
Budafoki MTE vs Fehervar
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Bnei Sakhnin vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Hapoel Kfar Saba vs Hapoel Haifa
Hapoel Be’er Sheva vs Hapoel Tel-Aviv
Italian Serie A:
AS Roma vs Genoa
Hellas Verona vs AC Milan
ACF Fiorentina vs Parma
Crotone vs Torino
Sampdoria vs Cagliari
SSC Napoli vs Bologna
Italian Serie B:
Empoli vs Cittadella
Reggiana vs Lecce
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Suduva Marijampole vs Panevezys
Dutch Eredivisie:
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs FC Groningen
Fortuna Sittard vs PSV Eindhoven
Heracles Almelo vs PEC Zwolle
Vitesse Arnhem vs AZ Alkmaar
Portuguese Liga 1:
Maritimo Funchal vs Moreirense
Rio Ave vs Farense
Portuguese Liga 2:
Penafiel vs Academica de Coimbra
UD Oliveirense vs Chaves
Russian Premier League:
Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast vs FK Ufa
Dinamo Moscow vs Tambov
Spartak Moscow vs FK Krasnodar
Spanish Primera Liga:
Huesca vs Celta de Vigo
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid
Real Sociedad vs Levante
Athletic Club vs Granada
Swedish Svenska Cupen:
AFC Eskilstuna vs Oskarhamns AIK
Hammarby vs AIK Solna
Dalkurd vs Gauthiod
BK Hacken Goteborg vs Helsingborg
Akropolis vs Landskrona BoIS
Mjallby Solvesborg vs Ostersunds FK
GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken
IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Goteborg
Swiss Super League:
Lausanne Sport vs FC Sion
Lugano vs FC Zurich
Luzern vs St. Gallen
Turkish Super Lig:
Fatih Karagumruk vs Ankaragucu
Hatayspor vs Kayserispor
Genclerbirligi vs Istanbul BB
Galatasaray vs Sivasspor
Enjoy your free betting tips!