Winterthur vs FC Thun
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Today’s free tip is in the Swiss Challenge League encounter between Winterthur and FC Thun.
For clarity, I don’t regard Winterthur as being better than Thun. However, I do think that the timing of this fixture favours the hosts, and it’s the first time I’ve said that about them in ages because Winterthur’s injury problems are worse than those of most teams at Challenge League level. That in itself should give you an indication as to why I think the visitors are in trouble tonight!
Winterthur do tend to be a hard team for the better Challenge League teams to beat, and I think that applies tonight too. Their season isn’t officially over, but it kind of us with promotion looking unlikely and relegation close to impossible. It won’t stop them from trying; don’t get me wrong. It just relaxes them a shade, and it also means that their opponents need to go for the win more, both of which are helpful for the home team, given their considerable list of absentees – as ever!
With Calla and Arnold still amongst the absentees, it’s not a surprise that they’ve only bagged twice in four games. Perhaps it’ll stop folk raving about Buess now, who is simply a target man, nothing more. Alves and Pepsi are threats, particularly the former, but they’ve simply been without too many players for too long now, and it’s taking its toll. Winterthur are still controlling games well enough, and they’re still annoying to beat. Whether Loose can get them to turn those games into wins without Calla or not is another matter.
I still maintain that tonight’s opponents really do suit Winterthur though. For starters, Thun will have a go at their hosts. They still harbour hopes of promotion, and they’ve mostly done well since Bernegger took over. In essence, this is – or was – a Super League squad playing in the Challenge League. They lost some players at the start of the season but replaced them far better than I thought possible for a club with very little money behind them. I’ve been quietly impressed with the Bernese outfit, to be honest – until now.
I didn’t think it’d go down well when they lost yet another winger, this time Portugal’s Nuno da Silva, who moved to join the growing Portuguese revolution that exists at Grasshopper Zurich. To understand why, you have to appreciate that he was loaned out by Thun whilst they were in the Super League last season. He gained valuable experience at this level, so when they lost Tosetti at the start of the season, they had a readymade replacement waiting in the wings in da Silva, who has performed well this season. Now they’ve lost da Silva though, it’s yet another player that’s gone that they’ve simply not been given the opportunity to replace. Instead, it’ll have to be Dzonlagic to step up (with Salanovic still not performing well), and he’s not exactly convinced for them this season, although he has done well at this level for other clubs before.
That departure has caused problems for Thun, who are still without playmaker Castroman. Rapid Schwizer on the left remains a threat but there’s a lack of balance without da Silva. Thun need a good wide game in order to be effective, especially with limited forward threats. I mean, despite a promising start to his career in Switzerland, Kyeremateng has gone off the boil and been usurped by Chihadeh in recent times, and neither are particularly clinical. They really do need chances putting on a plate for them, these forwards, and it’s just not going to happen often enough with this setup.
The above issues are only going to be magnified by their absentees tonight. Joining Castroman on the sidelines are both remaining right-wingers for Thun, namely Salanovic and Dzonlagic, attacking full-back Kablan, and centre-back Havenaar, all of which are regulars. Even rotation defender Rodrigues is out here! Therefore, for a change, the boot is on the other foot with regard to Winterthur having the worst injury problems in the Challenge League right now. At least the home team have gotten used to being without their absentees; Thun are struggling like crazy to do the same, and a nervy 1-0 win at home against Kriens has done nothing to convince me otherwise.
Ergo, a Winterthur win with draw no bet cover at evens is a risk worth taking tonight.
Verdict: Winterthur to win with draw no bet at evens.
Friday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Australian A-League:
Melbourne City vs Macarthur FC
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Sporting Charleroi vs Club Brugge
Bulgarian A PFG:
Ludogorets Razgrad vs Arda
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Beroe
Croatian Prva Liga:
Rijeka vs Slaven Koprivnica
Czechia Liga 1:
Slovan Liberec vs Teplice
Danish Superligaen:
Lyngby vs FC Nordsjaelland
English Premier League:
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa
French Ligue 1:
Stade de Reims vs Olympique Lyonnais
German Bundesliga:
Augsburg vs Borussia Moenchengladbach
German Bundesliga 2:
Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel
VfL Bochum vs Hamburger SV
Italian Serie A:
SS Lazio vs Crotone
Atalanta Bergamo vs Spezia
Italian Serie B:
Cittadella vs Pisa
SPAL vs Virtus Entella
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Riteriai vs Banga Gargzdai
Portuguese Liga 1:
CD Nacional de Madeira vs Maritimo Funchal
Romanian Liga 1:
Gaz Metan Medias vs Universitatea Craiova
Russian Premier League:
FK Khimki vs FK Rostov
Spanish Primera Liga:
Levante vs Valencia
Swiss Challenge League:
Neuchatel Xamax vs FC Schaffhausen
Winterthur vs FC Thun
SC Kriens vs Grasshopper Zurich
Turkish Super Lig:
Istanbul BB vs Besiktas JK
Enjoy your free betting tips!