Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory
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Today’s (meaning Saturday, but posted on Friday because of the early kick-off) free tip is in the Australian A-League encounter between Central Coast Mariners and Melbourne Victory.
The big news ahead of this game is that Victory have announced the return of Shotton and Ryan, both of which are centre-backs. The former is absolutely integral to the team; they cannot defend without him, even though he only joined this season. Ryan is good but has taken a lot of flak because he’s young, and has made mistakes. However, I’m sort of not buying this news. It’s extremely apparent that Victory need centre-backs in their squad; every A-League fan will tell you that. I almost feel like it’s a stunt though. They wouldn’t be the first A-League team to do it, announcing that players are back before they actually are, just to unsettle opponents. Given the injury history and the importance of both centre-backs, I’d be quite surprised if they rushed them back in Gosford today. They might, I suppose – that’s the risk. I don’t see them being quite that stupid though – I just think that they want the Mariners to be a bit more worried about this fixture.
I mean, as much of a joke that Victory now are, they’re still technically the better team here. They’ve been an utter disaster this season, and the Mariners have had an outrageously good campaign, but Victory have better individuals; there’s no denying it. That only makes it more embarrassing that Victory have been as bad as they have though. They’ve been short on confidence for a while now, and have far more problems than mere injuries, although an almost complete absence of centre-backs in recent times has obviously done them a lot of damage.
Those problems wouldn’t just dissipate if Shotton and Ryan did return today though. This team still lacks a natural playmaker, especially with their most creative player Rojas still injury, and he’s not exactly missed because he was awful in the games he did feature in this season. Kruse has become a joke in attack, although he at least puts himself about well. There’s still no designated striker or target man with Gestede out. Broxham is no longer suspended but he is injured, so they’ll be lacking leadership today too. Whether you view absentees as more problematic, or the fact that they can’t control games or created good chances in general as more problematic, the bottom line is that this is not a good setup.
Some fans are turning on boss Brebner; others aren’t because he did openly admit before taking this job that he wasn’t ready for it. I’m not sure Postecoglou could make this Victory team good though; that’s the reality here. I may be bewildered when I see that Brebner said his team played well against Wellington Phoenix but I really don’t see better options out there other than to batten down the hatches, shift on dead wood, and bring players in. This process will still take a year or more though; there’s no quick fix.
At times, I thought Victory played marginally better against Phoenix but it always felt like they played as the Kiwis wanted them to, you know? Phoenix got the lead, and then sat off them, knowing they wouldn’t create anything – and they didn’t other than a few shots from outside the box. Then Phoenix upped the ante, bagged three more goals, and barring a fortunate Kamsoba finish late on, Victory did nothing to them. Were it not for the woodwork, Phoenix would have scored more too. It’s hard to be optimistic about a team like this, even if the law of averages denotes that a better result is just around the corner for the visitors.
I’m of the opinion that teams have started to figure the Mariners out now too. It’s not hard, really – they opt to play without the ball, defending deep, and countering swiftly. They’ve optimised their ball usage under Stajcic rather than having more overall possession, and it’s worked well for them. Now teams know they’re doing it though, more seem inclined to afford the Mariners more time on the ball, which has limited their attacking capabilities. It’s not nullified them; don’t get me wrong. They’ve still got good target men and clever forwards, not to mention a very good playmaker in de Silva, and raw speed out wide. It does make them easier to defend against though.
I don’t see Victory being smart enough to do that today though. Victory are desperate for more possession in games to stop teams unloading on their injury-ravaged defence. Their ineffectual use of the ball makes me think that the Mariners are going to love this fixture because they’ll be able to break religiously, and few have done it better than them this season. I would advise caution with the Mariners moving forward, though. I know they’re still flying high in the A-League, and they’re certainly not crap now, but let’s just say that I expect their results to balance out that bit more, just like they did for Brisbane Roar a few weeks back after their strong start to the season.
For now, I’m still content enough to back the Mariners to beat the -1 Asian Handicap today though. They’re mentally stronger than their opponents, they work harder, they want it more, and they’re both better organised and more clinical than their opponents. Therefore, the Mariners should be able to win this game by a couple of goals. However, if Victory do get desperate enough to throw Shotton and/or Ryan (especially the former) back into the mixer today, consider backing under 2.5 goals at 6/5 instead. They’ll contain the Mariners a bit better that way, although probably still lose, and I doubt a Bozanic-led midfield will give the visitors an inch.
Verdict: Central Coast Mariners to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 27/25.
Saturday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
African Nations Qualifiers:
Lesotho vs Sierra Leone
Benin vs Nigeria
World Cup Qualifiers – Europe:
Montenegro vs Gibraltar
Russia vs Slovenia
Belarus vs Estonia
Norway vs Turkey
Netherlands vs Latvia
Croatia vs Cyprus
Serbia vs Portugal
Republic of Ireland vs Luxembourg
Czechia vs Belgium
Slovakia vs Malta
European U21 Championship Finals:
Hungary vs Romania
Slovenia vs Czechia
Germany vs Netherlands
Spain vs Italy
International Friendlies:
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Costa Rica
Qatar vs Azerbaijan
Wales vs Mexico
International U21 Friendlies:
Slovakia vs North Macedonia
Ukraine vs Uzbekistan U23
Australian A-League:
Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory
Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets
Portuguese Liga 2:
Arouca vs Feirense
Enjoy your free betting tips!