Brisbane Roar vs Western Sydney Wanderers
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Today’s (meaning Saturday – posted early because of the early kick-off time) free tip is in the Australian A-League encounter between Brisbane Roar and Western Sydney Wanderers.
With this kind of tip, it’s all about timing. That’s because there’s not much between the two outfits in question. For my money, Brisbane Roar are a lot better organised than Western Sydney Wanderers but the visitors are far more dangerous in the final third. Other than luck, circumstances are the main separator here.
As luck would have it, the visitors are in the better place at the moment – and I say that despite a 4-1 defeat against Melbourne City last time out. Western Sydney don’t deal well with teams that always apply pressure to a back four, or continually ask questions. They just can’t contain teams that get past their midfield. Getting past their midfield is hard because that’s a very physical, mobile group of players with a couple of very composed passers. Playing against a back three that doesn’t operate well as a back three is never going to end well though, especially not when the wing-backs either side of them love to cannon forward as Russell and Aquilina/Wilmering do.
What Western Sydney bring to the table that other teams can’t deal with is athleticism and stamina though. This is one team you do not want to be losing against when you enter the last twenty minutes because it doesn’t matter if they play Duke, Ibini-Isei, Kamau, or Yeboah – they’re all very mobile in one form or another, and none of them ever seem to play passes backward! Even Cox should be in that equation; not because of his speed, but more because of the timing of his runs. Containing a team like this for ninety minutes is hard, in a nutshell.
Despite the problem I’ve had with the Western Sydney defence all season long though, my main gripe with them is that they don’t convert enough of their chances. I’ve lost count of the amount of one-on-ones that Yeboah has squandered, or the amount of headers that Muller has put straight at the goalkeeper or wide of the mark. This team finds it very easy to create chances, especially since experienced playmaker Troisi joined from Adelaide United, but putting the ball in the net doesn’t happen anywhere near as often as it should for them.
Still, by creating so many chances, they always give themselves a reasonable enough chance of recording a positive result, and that should be the case again today. I’m sure that Roar will force them into some mistakes at the back because of how intensely the home team tends to play from front to back, but Western Sydney simply find it far easier to hurt teams than they do – and even they are more clinical than Roar!
The absence of key centre-back Gillesphey today is far from ideal for the home team, both because they don’t tend to score enough goals in general (thus the onus on good defending is more apparent than it is with other A-League teams) and because they only pick up good results based on their structure. Without Gillesphey, the chances of them keeping Western Sydney at bay are minimal, even after a fortnight or so to prepare for this game.
Roar aren’t a bad team; don’t get me wrong. What you have to appreciate about them is that everything they do hinges upon organisation, fitness, and consistency. Without any of those things, they struggle. Their organisation and fitness levels are good, but their consistency levels aren’t because their only good finisher – McDonald – has been injured for a few weeks. He’s supposed to be back today, which I’ll believe when I see it as the A-League teams tend to lie about such things in order to worry their opponents. Even if he is back, he’ll surely only start from the bench, meaning it’s the usual fellas that will be on the pitch for the home team.
When it comes to high pressing, and being a pain to beat, Roar are one of the A-League’s better teams. However, remove one of their key cogs (e.g. Gillesphey) and they become easier to break down. That’s particularly galling for them because nothing is going right in the final third. Mebrahtu has found goals hard to come by since his return to Australia, Wenzel-Halls is busy reminding everybody of how poor a finisher he actually is (ignore the goal-scoring record this season, please!), and Champness is still yet to bag since his loan move from the Jets. Much like Western Sydney, they tend to be very bad at converting opportunities but with one big difference; they don’t carve out anywhere near as many as today’s visitors.
The upshot is that I expect the visitors to outscore Roar today. They’re far better at finding the net, and they create enough chances to make it happen. Roar will be as annoying as hell to dislodge if they somehow fluke their way into the lead, but other than that, the value definitely lies in backing the underdogs here.
Verdict: Western Sydney Wanderers to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Saturday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Australian A-League:
Brisbane Roar vs Western Sydney Wanderers
Austrian Bundesliga:
Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach
St. Polten vs Admira Wacker
SV Ried vs Hartberg
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
KV Oostende vs Waasland-Beveren
Sint-Truiden vs KV Mechelen
Kortrijk vs Club Brugge
Croatian Prva Liga:
Istra 1961 vs NK Osijek
Sibenik vs Dinamo Zagreb
Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Hajduk Split
Gorica vs Rijeka
Czechia Liga 1:
Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice
Opava vs Slovacko
Slovan Liberec vs Banik Ostrava
Sparta Prague vs Teplice
English Premier League:
Chelsea vs West Bromwich Albion
Leeds United vs Sheffield United
Leicester City vs Manchester City
Arsenal vs Liverpool
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Nomme Kalju vs Trans Narva
Vaprus vs Legion
Finnish Suomen Cup:
FC Honka Espoo vs PK-35 Helsinki
HIFK vs HJK
Inter Turku vs SJK
French Ligue 1:
AS Monaco vs Metz
Paris Saint-Germain vs Lille OSC
Racing Club Lens vs Olympique Lyonnais
German Bundesliga:
Augsburg vs TSG Hoffenheim
Bv09 Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Schalke 04
Mainz 05 vs Arminia Bielefeld
VfL Wolfsburg vs Koln
RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich
Borussia Moenchengladbach vs SC Freiburg
German Bundesliga 2:
VfL Bochum vs Holstein Kie
Heidenheim vs Greuther Furth
Karlsruher SC vs VfL Osnabruck
Hungarian Liga 1:
Paksi SE vs MTK Budapest
Zalaegerszegi TE vs Diosgyori VTK
Budapest Honved vs Ujpest
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Hadera vs Hapoel Tel-Aviv
MS Ashdod vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Maccabi Haifa vs Maccabi Petah Tikva
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs Hapoel Be’er Sheva
Italian Serie A:
AC Milan vs Sampdoria
Atalanta Bergamo vs Udinese
Benevento vs Parma
Cagliari vs Hellas Verona
Genoa vs ACF Fiorentina
SS Lazio vs Spezia
SSC Napoli vs Crotone
Sassuolo vs AS Roma
Torino vs Juventus
Bologna vs Internazionale
Lithuanian Super Cup:
Zalgiris Vilnius vs FK Panevezys
Dutch Eredivisie:
VVV Venlo vs FC Groningen
FC Twente Enschede vs Vitesse Arnhem
Willem II vs AZ Alkmaar
Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle
Portuguese Liga 1:
Rio Ave vs Gil Vicente
FC Porto vs Santa Clara
Portuguese Liga 2:
Vizela vs Estoril
FC Porto II vs Arouca
Romanian Liga 1:
Hermannstadt vs Arges
Russian Premier League:
Rotor Volgograd vs Lokomotiv Moscow
FK Krasnodar vs Akhmat Grozny
Rubin Kazan vs PFC Sochi
Dinamo Moscow vs FK Ufa
Spanish Primera Liga:
Granada vs Villarreal
Real Madrid vs Eibar
CA Osasuna vs Getafe
Spanish Copa del Rey Final (19/20)
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad
Swiss Super League:
Lausanne Sport vs Luzern
St. Gallen vs FC Zurich
Swiss Challenge League:
Aarau vs FC Schaffhausen
Grasshopper Zurich vs Neuchatel Xamax
SC Kriens vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
FC Thun vs Wil
Winterthur vs Chiasso
Turkish Super Lig:
Kayserispor vs Goztepe
Rizespor vs Fatih Karagumruk
Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor
Hatayspor vs Galatasaray
Enjoy your free betting tips!