Newcastle Jets vs Western United
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Today’s (meaning Monday – posted early because of the kick-off time!) free tip is in the Australian A-League encounter between Newcastle Jets and Western United.
I think Western United’s derby win last week was more impressive on paper than in reality. Don’t get me wrong – they really had to work for the win, and they took their chances well. Let’s be realistic about what happened though, shall we? City were due a blip, and they had one – but they still dominated that game, and the chances they created, especially in the last twenty minutes, would have seen them draw or win that match. It would be a bit unfair on Western United to say that they were lucky to win that game, but let’s just say that they certainly lucked out during the fixture.
However, I also think it’s poignant to state that Western United were facing the best team in Australia right now. That’s not an easy game for any team. If Western United play today like they did last week, they’ll win again; it’s that simple. They had the right attitudes at both ends, and they took their chances well. It’s in defence where they needed that improvement the most because the amount of cheap free-kicks their defenders give away through little more than laziness is really quite poor, and the cover they get from midfield is not ideal. They’re going to be especially tested today because midfield sitter Sanchez is out again, and his likely replacement, Skotadis, is far more erratic with his distribution.
Still, the Western United attack is really dangerous. Pierias and Pain in wing-back roles, Diamanti making everything happen, Guarrotxena driving past players, and battering ram Berisha through the middle is enough to upset an extremely unconvincing Jets team. Now they’ve got a backup target man in Sheppard too, because Berisha is getting on a bit. I can pick some flaws with this team but the majority of it is good. They’ve got an excellent manager, tend to be good enough at stroking the ball around the pitch, and seldom leave games without scoring goals. They’ve even gotten wonderkid Pasquali back from injury, although I would be really surprised if he featured today. It’s something to keep in mind for the coming weeks though because he’s a real match-winner.
I think Western United have picked a good time to take on the Jets, home or away. They’ve lost five games in a row, and they’ve deserved to via one medium or another. It always seems like they’re making too many errors to deserve anything but defeat. For example, the defeat against Adelaide (well, both defeats against Adelaide, actually) came as a result of the Jets not dealing with the Adelaide press, being dispossessed outside their own eighteen yard box, and conceding. Against Glory, they were constantly on the back football, going two goals down, until Aspropotamitis stupidly got himself sent off. After that, the Jets created more than enough chances to get something from the game – but still failed, this time making too many errors in front of goal. Call it bad luck or too many errors, but the Jets are not in a good place at the moment.
Like all bad runs, it will come to an end at some stage. I’m hopeful it won’t be today, but then again, not many A-League teams lose six in a row. Still, logic suggests the Jets are in for another tough game here. Key centre-back Boogaard is out again, leaving Topor-Stanley all by himself – and he’s taken a lot of flak from the club’s fans this season for below-par displays. Another defensive regular, Koutroumbis, is injured for this game, and defensive utility man Kantarovski is still out. He may have been out for a while, but people seem to forget how important he is to this team. With him in the side, they wouldn’t have lost at least one of the Adelaide matches because he wouldn’t have been caught out like others (e.g. Ugarkovic) were.
For me, these absentees are too much, especially for a team that relies heavily on its defensive structure. Their attacking is improving, but isn’t clinical. Yuel is still the best they’ve got, and opponents know it now – so they focus on doubling-up on him, which pretty much nullifies the Jets’ unpredictability. O’Donovan still gives a shit but is not a good finisher, and the timing of his runs in behind are poor. Youngsters Yengi and Mauragis add a bit of unpredictability sometimes; they’re both out today. One of the Petratos brothers has unsurprisingly left because he’s crap, even by A-League standards. Abbas hasn’t ever really recovered from his injury (mentally), and Krasniqi shows some good glimpses but doesn’t really know his teammates yet so the link-up play just isn’t there – yet.
I can see the potential in the Jets attack, but it’s nowhere near where it needs to be at this moment in time. Najjarine has done really well this season; I’ve been really impressed with him. He and Ugarkovic are really good midfielders when it comes to moving the ball quickly and accurately, at least in the opposing half. I rate Thurgate highly too; he makes good runs, and is a good finisher. The trouble is that there’s simply too much congestion with their quality players i.e. they’re all in the middle. Out wide and up top, they’re not quite good enough at this moment in time. I know Millar and Krasniqi will improve in time, but until that happens, the Jets look far too disjointed in the final third, and that’s not ideal against an experienced Western United back three.
Ultimately, I would be a bit surprised to see the visitors lose this one. A draw is possible, but at 11/10, backing Western United to win with draw no bet cover is a common sense pick.
Verdict: Western United to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
Monday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Australian A-League:
Newcastle Jets vs Western United
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne City
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
OH Leuven vs Racing Genk
Zulte-Waregem vs AS Eupen
Antwerp vs RSC Anderlecht
Danish Superligaen:
FC Copenhagen vs Randers
FC Midtjylland vs Brondby
Aalborg BK vs SonderjyskE
English Premier League:
Everton vs Crystal Palace
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs West Ham United
German Bundesliga 2:
St. Pauli vs Eintracht Braunschweig
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Beitar Jerusalem vs Hapoel Kfar Saba
Italian Serie B:
Pordenone vs Virtus Entella
Ascoli vs Vicenza
Cittadella vs Reggina
Cosenza vs Cremonese
Empoli vs Chievo Verona
Monza vs Pescara
Pisa vs Lecce
Reggiana vs Brescia
SPAL vs Venezia
Salernitana vs Frosinone
Portuguese Liga 1:
Farense vs Sporting Braga
SL Benfica vs Maritimo Funchal
Moreirense vs Sporting Clube de Portugal
Portuguese Liga 2:
UD Oliveirense vs Leixoes Matosinhos
Romanian Liga 1:
Chindia vs Voluntari
CFR Cluj vs Dinamo Bucharest
Russian Premier League:
Zenit St. Petersburg vs FK Khimki
Spanish Primera Liga:
Barcelona vs Real Valladolid
Swiss Super League:
FC Basel vs Vaduz
Turkish Super Lig:
Fenerbahce vs Denizlispor
Enjoy your free betting tips!