Atletico Goianiense vs Fluminense
FreeWe’re always looking for new recruits to help us so please click here if you want to find out more about the ways you can help us (e.g. local input, watching games)!
There are 2 bankers and 9 value tips in the Members Section today plus our exclusive UEFA European Championship/Copa America coverage so feel free to sign up here to see them + team news!
Today’s free tip is in the Brazilian Serie A encounter between Atletico Goianiense and Fluminense.
I wondered what the season ahead would hold for Fluminense after they unsurprisingly lost talented boss Hellmann, who went to coach in United Arab Emirates for big bucks. I’ve been quietly impressed with what Roger Machado has done in his stead, though. He’s basically continued his predecessor’s work whilst adding a couple of maverick attackers to make them that bit more dangerous, and I love watching it.
Fluminense play one of the more entertaining style of football in Serie A right now. It helps that they’ve got three natural creators, but this season has proven that they’re not overly reliant on them. I mean, they’ve dropped Marcos Paulo ahead of his free transfer to Atletico Madrid because he’s let his contract run down; he’s not kicked a ball for them this season. Nene is still playing, having decided not to retire just yet, and even he has had to settle for a bench role sometimes. Ganso drifts in and out of the squad because of fitness and attitude problems too. Despite that, Fluminense have functioned really well; they’re a very impressive team like that.
I also tend to find nowadays that Fluminense have a handle on youngsters coming through better than most Serie A clubs. I know that they’ve already agreed to sell youngster Kayky to Manchester City despite him barely featuring for the Fluminense first-team, although he has been playing this season ahead of his move to England in January, and has looked very lively. Luiz Henrique and Caio Paulista have been performing well, as has Martinelli in midfield, and Gabriel Teixeira has done seriously well there too. It’s far from uncommon to give kids a chance in Brazil, but Fluminense always seem to pick the right kids at the right time, and I like that.
Fusing the youngsters with the experienced heads whilst also making them work hard to play good attacking football is simply a combination that works. No, I seldom trust the Rio de Janeiro outfit to keep clean sheets, but they’re relentless in pursuit of goals, and look even more capable of scoring them this season than last. Kayky is a new threat, as are the other kids I’ve mentioned, but it’s acquiring veteran attacker Bobadilla and journeyman forward Hernandez that I like the most. It’s fair to say that neither of them will play in every game but Hernandez is the most mobile, natural striker they’ve had for a while, and Bobadilla is very skilful and competitive. Both will play significant roles for Fluminense this season, even if just used occasionally. They bring something different to an already dangerous attack, in other words.
Fluminense can outscore teams like Atletico Goianiense at home with this group. I can’t pretend that they’ll make it easy for themselves because they seldom make anything easy. However, they’re confident, they’re dangerous, and they will find goals in most games so they can win here. That’s especially true because Atletico Goianiense without Mancini as manager lack a little on the efficiency front. Barroca has done well with the team defensively; I can’t deny that. They’ve executed game-plans rather well against big teams that play slow football against them, countering easily.
However, when it comes to open games where they need to play with more intensity, they struggle. In other words, if teams work as hard as they traditionally do – or harder – then Atletico Goianiense have nowhere left to hide. With all due respect to the home team, this is not a good team. There’s an excellent level of team spirit and togetherness; I’ll give them that. Quality is in short supply though, even after retaining their place in Serie A, and it might end up costing them this season.
Not every team that comes calling in Goias will be as lazy or casual as Sao Paulo, for example, and nor will many teams play as casually at home as Corinthians. Athletico Paranaense and Fortaleza both made Atletico Goianiense sweat lately, and tonight’s hosts won neither fixture. It’s nice that they defend as well as they do, but they surely have to appreciate that their highest goal-scorer last season was a myriad of players that scored three goals apiece. Three goals! I’m not doubting that Barroca can be a good manager for them, but to place that burden on him without strengthening the attack is bold, to say the least, especially after star midfielder Ferrareis left for Puebla pre-season.
The most Atletico Goianiense did pre-season was to acquire Fluminense outcast Pablo Dyego on loan (and if they can’t get the best out of him, nobody can, Atletico Goianiense included) and Santos fringe player Arthur Gomes on loan, the latter of which is yet to kick a ball in Serie A for them. They’re not the best of signings, even with financial restrictions in mind, so I really do fear for Atletico Goianiense this season. This defensive record of theirs won’t last forever, and conceding nowadays tends to be rather condemning for them. Indeed, the only team they’ve come from behind to beat over the past month or two was Gremio Anapolis in the Goiano State Championship final, which they still lost on penalties anyway – to a team that aren’t even in a league; that’s how far down they are!
For me, this game will be all about the first goal. If the hosts sneak ahead, it’ll most likely end in a draw. If the visitors go in front though, they should be able to win it – and I really don’t see them losing. Therefore, the away win with draw no bet cover at evens is appealing to me.
Verdict: Fluminense to win with draw no bet at evens.
Wednesday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Brazilian Serie A:
Flamengo vs Fortaleza
Atletico Goianiense vs Fluminense
RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras
Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Ilves vs Inter Turku
FC Lahti vs HIFK
Enjoy your free betting tips!