Melbourne City vs Sydney FC
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Today’s free tip is in the Australian A-League encounter between Melbourne City and Sydney FC.
Well, at least here it’s here, folks – the Australian A-League final! Melbourne City have already finished at the top of the table, but that’s not the end of things in Australia because they like to keep things fun. Anyway, after a couple of knockout matches, here we are with Melbourne City hosting Sydney FC in the final.
Now, over the years Sydney FC have been the team with more mental strength, experience, and match-winners than City. In the past, I would not have hesitated to back Sydney FC because City have always been bottlers. That’s their nature. That’s their ‘thing’. Truth be told, they wouldn’t have even made it this far in the past because they’d have crumbled by now. The fact that they’re here though, as well as having topped the table, tells you how much Kisnorbo has changed things at this club. They now look ready to be trusted to win a major match, in other words.
They’ve been better than Sydney throughout the season, although the two head-to-heads were pretty much one apiece in terms of which team deserved to win. There’s seldom much between them, as you can no doubt appreciate, and I doubt that this game will be any different. City have more to offer than Sydney right now, though – that’s my take on things. I’d have been concerned with that belief had City not beaten Macarthur FC last time out because they really needed to start winning games again after rotating their squad (having clinched top spot) and thus dropping points.
City were good against Macarthur FC though, and that was despite being without three of their top performers this season in MacLaren, Good, and Metcalfe – hard to think of three more instrumental players for them than that trio, actually. Indeed, they were also without Noone, who picked up an injury in warm-up, forcing them to start teenager Borges. Despite that, they were strong enough mentally and patient enough to beat the Bulls, and secure a home final berth for themselves today.
Sydney have improved since acquiring Le Fondre. I still don’t think it’s the right thing to do, playing him alongside Bobo, and I shudder to think what the future holds for this team with old players lingering or rejoining and little sign of kids coming through. The only thing they’ve really improved is their ability to convert chances though. Their chance creation is as disappointing as ever; against a team that defends deep, they seldom do any real damage. Luckily for them, they’ve got the required individuals to decide such games in their favour sometimes but they’re still not convincing. Perhaps it’s genius from Corica, though. I mean, Sydney are old, slow, and lacking in stamina, especially in defence. Prioritising chance conversion over anything else means that they fall behind less and/or go in front more, and they’re deadly when they have a lead to sit on because few teams get more compact than they do.
For me though, City are simply better than Sydney. I think that they’re more mobile, better-balanced, and far more consistent. Sydney may have better playmakers in the middle of the park (even Baumjohann turned up lately, presumably trying to win himself a new deal after months of under-performing) and more capacity to control a game, but City have far more live wires up front – and Sydney hate defending against that. City need to press them, need to stay fresh to stop themselves from being predictable, and obviously need to convert their chances – but they both could and should.
City do have the odd mistake in them at the back but in general they are very hard to score against. Sydney are predictable in how they attack teams, seldom creating much from open play other than from Grant overlapping. If Sydney do get chances, they’ll score them; Bobo and Le Fondre are very good like that. I think City will stifle Sydney though, and unlike other teams to face Sydney over the past month or two, they should be able to keep them out altogether.
The problem that City have though, is that their mainstays are not yet available because of international duty quarantine – and that really is an abomination. The best team in the division can’t use their best players in the most important game of their campaign – what’s that about? Why not just move the final to another weekend? So, yes – Good, Metcalfe, and MacLaren are still out whilst Nabbout and Noone are doubts, meaning that City are now going to find it very hard to break a stubborn Sydney FC down. Sydney FC are also caught up in the same mire with star right-back Grant, key centre-back McGowan, and experienced goalkeeper Redmayne on the sidelines because of international duty quarantine. Their attack is still intact though, which is why part of me thinks that they’ll nick it. I hope that they don’t, because they don’t deserve it more than City do, but this absentee situation favours the visitors massively now.
I was going to back City but I simply can’t do that now. Instead, I’m on under 2.5 goals at evens because either team that gets the lead is going to try and sit on it, given the players that they’re without.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Sunday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Australian A-League:
Melbourne City vs Sydney FC
Brazilian Serie A:
Juventude vs Flamengo
Fluminense vs Corinthians
Santos vs Atletico Mineiro
Ceara vs Sao Paulo
Athletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense
Gremio vs Fortaleza
Palmeiras vs Bahia
America Mineiro vs Internacional
Sport Recife vs Cuiaba
Icelandic PepsiMaxDeildin:
FH vs KA
IA vs Keflavik
HK vs Breidablik Kopavogur
Valur Reykjavik vs Fylkir Reykjavik
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Zalgiris Vilnius vs Nevezis
Banga Gargzdai vs Dziugas Tesliai
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Bodo/Glimt vs Stabaek
Enjoy your free betting tips!