Sport Recife vs Palmeiras
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Today’s free tip is in the Brazilian Serie A encounter between Sport Recife and Palmeiras.
I’m always a bit edgy about backing teams to win in Recife, the home side included. The pitch in Recife tends to be shocking, you see. It usually takes a good team to win on it. Luckily for us, Palmeiras are good enough to do so.
Mind you, it’s important to be wary with backing the Sao Paulo juggernauts right now. They’ve been ravaged by the Copa America more than most, especially when you consider that wonderkid Veron has been injured too. Palmeiras rely heavily on their defensive setup (but are far better in the final third than neighbours Corinthians and Sao Paulo respectively) so when they’re without defenders – which they are now – they have to score more goals than they usually need to. With Vina, Gomez, and goalkeeper Weverton out, they’ve been conceding more goals than usual. They’re not quite at Chapecoense level on that front, but it’s regular enough to derail their plans in big/hard games.
However, to be fair to Palmeiras, they reinvented themselves rather well for the duration of this Copa America bout. They’ve not been able to win the more complicated games, but have managed to score enough goals to beat other teams. For example, winning against RB Bragantino and Corinthians was off the table, but beating Juventude, America Mineiro, Bahia, and most recently Internacional was very much a possibility by virtue of goals scored. With Luiz Adriano and Deyverson as attacking options, not to mention Willian, Lopes, and Wesley (all of which have scored this season), this team will still score goals, even with Veron out. Scarpa and Vega have stepped up well in midfield to help out on that front.
See, that’s another thing I like about Palmeiras – they’re not afraid to drop their more prized possession. I know Veron is injured, but Menino has lost his place to a thirty-eight year old Felipe Melo this season to serve as a reminder that he’s not suddenly Dunga for being good for one or two seasons. Abel Ferreira is a good manager, and he knows how to get the best out of players, especially in attack. That’s shown a lot lately because it’s had to, and I believe it’ll be enough to see them grind out a win here, which they’ve achieved for four straight visitors now.
I am always wary of opposing Sport Recife though. This is one of those old-fashioned, experienced teams that are happy to bend the rules. They’ll keep a crap pitch, make ‘good’ fouls off the ball, and do everything to annoy their opponents basically. They’re a team that knows how much they need to get from their home games in order to stay in Serie A too. Home games matter 100% more than away games for a team like this. Atletico Mineiro really had to fight to win this fixture earlier in the season, for example, and Gremio lost 1-0. They’re annoying, Sport Recife, if nothing else.
They do have a sprinkling of quality in their squad nowadays too. I mean, let’s not get carried away; most are there because they couldn’t be anywhere else. Andre never made it, for example – far too inconsistent, and yet has enough quality to do well at this level. Trellez has been around for what feels like forever now, and presents a physical threat up front instead of the usual speed merchants. Then you’ve got Thiago Neves still making things happen in midfield, and even at thirty-six he remains a class act, although Sport Recife have had to be really careful with how they use him in order to avoid his injury problems.
They’re better than most people suppose though, Sport Recife. It can be easy to lose sight of that when you watch them play because they try to win by whatever means necessary on the day instead of sticking to a specific style. The attacking quality is there though, and their defending since Umberto Louzer took over in April has been very good; Hayner, Sabino, and Thyere have been excellent. Make no mistake – this won’t be an easy game for Palmeiras to win. I believe that they’ll do it, hence the tip, but anyone expecting an easy ride in Recife might well be in for an eye-opening experience.
Verdict: Palmeiras to win at 4/5.
Sunday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Brazilian Serie A:
Chapecoense vs Bahia
Flamengo vs Fluminense
Sport Recife vs Palmeiras
Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino
Ceara vs Juventude
Cuiaba vs Atletico Mineiro
Gremio vs Atletico Goianiense
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Tammeka vs Legion
Vaprus Parnu vs Trans Narva
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
FC Lahti vs SJK
IFK Mariehamn vs HIFK
Finnish Ykkonen:
MuSa vs MP
RoPS vs Jaro Pietarsaari
Icelandic PepsiMaxDeild:
Fylkir Reykjavik vs HK
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Stabaek vs Sandefjord
Haugesund vs Tromso
Lillestrom vs Mjondalen
Odd vs Rosenborg BK
Sarpsborg 08 vs Molde FK
Stromsgodset vs Valerenga Oslo
Swedish Allsvenskan:
BK Hacken Goteborg vs AIK Solna
Varberg vs Kalmar FF
Hammarby vs Halmstad
Sirius vs Mjallby Solvesborg
Enjoy your free betting tips!