Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix
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Today’s secondary featured game is the A-League encounter between struggling Adelaide United and Wellington Phoenix.
Hosts Adelaide United have gone from hero to zero since they lost arising star Leckie to Borussia Moenchengladbach and especially Argentinian star Flores to Chinese outfit Henan Jianye. The Flores-van Dijk combination up front was the main reason that Adelaide United were so good last season with the big Dutchman providing the power and the clever Argentinian making the runs. It was one of the most dangerous combinations that I’ve seen in the A-League and Adelaide United look lost without it. It’s no surprise at all that van Dijk has only bagged one goal in eight games this season without the necessary support and subsequently Adelaide are going to struggle until they change tactics or sign a more suitable strike partner for him. Adelaide aren’t the best side when it comes to defending either, which doesn’t help their cause. They’ve done well on counter-attacks in recent weeks but that’s all it’s been – the rest of their play is dour and uninspiring so I don’t rate their chances too highly here, especially with their only good striker van Dijk a big doubt for this game.
What does go in their favour is that New Zealand-based outfit Wellington Phoenix are notoriously poor travellers. Wellington Phoenix can beat anyone in the A-League at home – they play with such passion and attacking intent that they’re unrecognisable from the poor side that we see in away games. Inexplicably, Herbert makes them go all defensive on the road when their only strength is attacking. They almost never keep clean sheets on the road but their lack of adventure when playing away from home means that they’re still viable candidates for under 2.5 goals here, in my view. Most sides will be able to rattle a few goals past Wellington Phoenix when they play away from home but Adelaide United look so predictable that I’ll be surprised if a determined Wellington Phoenix side concede many here. The visitors don’t attack much on the road and thus the hosts will struggle to play their counter-attacking game so I can only see this game going under 2.5 goals. I’d be more concerned about the absence of Brazilian defender Cassio for Adelaide United had Wellington Phoenix definitely got Paul Ifill at their disposal today but according to reports he is a big doubt for this game. Lochhead’s absence at full-back makes Wellington Phoenix a little vulnerable but do Adelaide United have enough to punish them? I don’t think so.
Therefore, my call is to go under 2.5 goals here. Adelaide United are weak in attack this season and Wellington Phoenix are gritty enough to grind out a hard-fought draw in this one so that’s exactly what I expect. Adelaide will be keen to impress their new manager so should be tighter at the back, especially with McKain back in their ranks, but can they resolve their attacking issues? I’m not so sure, especially with the potential absence of van Dijk, and thus my call is under 2.5 goals.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Friday’s Picks
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Australian A-League:
Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix (6) 1-1
English Premier League:
Liverpool vs Newcastle United (4) 1-1
English Championship:
Southampton vs Bristol City (6) over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!