AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Feyenoord Rotterdam
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Eredivisie clash between giants Ajax and Feyenoord. Although Ajax have endured a strange season, their campaign is far from over unlike opponents Feyenoord, who are so badly placed that they’re actually battling to stay in the division.
Ajax haven’t played a competitive game for a while so do be careful when betting in this game. The last game that I saw them participate in was a 4-2 defeat against Hamburger SV in a friendly a few days ago. De Boer still has a lot of work to do with Ajax and he knows it but given time, I think he could do the job. The first thing that Ajax need to do is sort out this situation with Luis Suarez. As you may or may not know, Suarez is currently serving a hefty Eredivisie suspension for his stupidity earlier this season. However, even when he played for Ajax this season he looked lethargic and uninterested. I don’t know if the World Cup has given him itchy feet and he wants to leave but if that’s the case then Ajax just need to sell him. Ajax are a big enough club to say “No player is bigger than the club” and they can buy replacements as they always have. I recall speaking to some Ajax fans near the time when Van Der Vaart was sold and they were glad he’d gone; not because he wasn’t a talented player but because he was a dickhead, to be blunt. Ajax has always represented unity to me; a side with great tradition and great spirit and I don’t think harbouring a Uruguayan striker who doesn’t want to be there is helping matters one iota.
Instead, Ajax must look to the strikers that are available and to be honest, they need to do a lot of work on that front. They’re relying a lot on El Hamdaoui, who was signed from AZ Alkmaar at the start of the season, but he misses this game through injury. Mido is not fit – I can’t seem to recall when he last was fit! – so Ajax are left with Dario Cvitanich, the Argentinian striker whom you may have seen playing for Mexican outfit Pachuca during the World Club Championship last month. Cvitanich was due to stay in Mexico but a deal could not be agreed so now he’s back with Ajax and if he can recapture the form that he had when they first signed him then it could be a blessing in disguise as he’s a very able striker on his day. Ajax are going to rely heavily on him tonight – what else can they do? – and hope that Sulejmani pulls his head out of his arse and starts playing as well as he can do. The long-term injury of winger Lodeiro hasn’t helped Ajax this season, especially not in games like this where Emanuelson is ruled out with injury, but the likes of emerging Danish midfielder Eriksen and attacking full-back Van Der Wiel should bring them that little bit extra that Ajax need tonight. Despite all their attacking problems this season, Ajax have still averaged scoring nearly two goals per home game and they’ve won the majority of their home games so they are capable of doing so again tonight, especially with head-to-head records favouring them for this one.
I won’t lie to you; 4/5 wouldn’t appeal to me unless Feyenoord contributed to this game too, which they happily do. Feyenoord’s record speaks for itself this season really – six defeats and three draws from nine away games. They’re not the side they were due to their financial issues and thus a lot of experienced and talented players left the club. They now have some emerging youngsters and a few decent players but they’re no more than an average side nowadays. Feyenoord have scored less than a goal per every away game this season but have also shockingly an average of nearly three goals per away game, which explains why they’ve struggled so much on the road. What else would you expect, really? Away from De Kuip, their emerging youngsters are horribly exposed and Feyenoord haven’t yet managed to find a way to rectify that. To make matters worse for Feyenoord, Technical Director Leo Beenhakker (whom you may recall from his tenure in charge of Poland and Trinidad & Tobago) has left the club, surprisingly enough, with very little reasoning as to why from what I’ve seen. This is going to disrupt the side because he did have a large input on the team with his experience and tactical prowess so it’s not a great time to be a Feyenoord fan, to be blunt.
Shall we make life worse for Feyenoord? I think so! Out of their youngsters, Feyenoord have a few that they tend to rely on a bit more heavily than others. In my eyes, they’re Fer and Wijnaldum in midfield and Castaignos in attack. Well, as fortune would have it, all of those academy boys are absent for Feyenoord’s trip to the Amsterdam ArenA tonight and without them, Feyenoord will undoubtedly struggle. New signings Swerts from AZ Alkmaar and Simon from Ujpest are both available but it’s not much salvation in such rocky times. They’re going to have to hope that forty-two year old goalkeeper Van Dijk is in inspired form and that his experienced defenders (De Cler and Bahia) can shepherd young De Vrij and Leerdam in defence or Feyenoord will be torn apart here. With the departure of Beenhakker, the injuries that Feyenoord have, and the lack of competitive match practice they’ve had, I don’t think Feyenoord are going to be up to stopping Ajax here – there’s too much reliance on players not good enough to handle it.
I am a little nervous that I’ve taken an Ajax handicap without instrumental El Hamdaoui but Cvitanich has a point to prove and let’s face it – he’s probably the most instinctive striker that Ajax have left nowadays so I’ll take a chance here. Feyenoord’s defence don’t know each other well enough yet with the integration of youngsters and experienced and it’s already shown an awful lot this season. With Feyenoord missing two important midfielders and one of their best strikers for the tough trip to Ajax, I can’t help but feel that backing Ajax with a -1.5 goal handicap at 4/5 represents some value here.
Team news – Ajax miss El Hamdaoui, Suarez, and Emanuelson whereas Feyenoord miss Fer, Wijnaldum, and Castaignos.
Verdict: AFC Ajax Amsterdam to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 4/5.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Venezuela U20 vs Uruguay U20 – Uruguay U20 to win at 8/11.
I don’t know how many of you have been watching the Copa Sudamericano this year – probably just me! – but it’s been fascinating. It’s good to see how immensely Brazil can play when they have a single player that is frankly to good for the tournament – Neymar!
Anyway, this game today is between Venezuela and Uruguay. It’s Venezuela’s first game as it’s a group of five whereas Uruguay enter this game on the back of a somewhat unfortunate 2-1 defeat against Argentina.
Like with most international tournaments in South America, Venezuela are not at the top of the food chain. Indeed, you can count the number of talented players that they possess on one hand with Zulia midfielder Yohandry Orozco being the star of the team. The midfielder scores a lot of goals and it’s only a matter of time before he moves to one of the bigger Venezuelan clubs, I’m sure. It’s worth keeping an eye on Caracas striker Josef Martinez, Deportivo Tachira defender Jackson Clavijo, Caracas defender Alexander Gonzalez, and especially Deportivo Petare defender Juan Pablo Villaroel but the rest aren’t anything special to write home about from what I’ve seen. You’ll note that a lot of those youngsters are defenders and that’s no coincidence because Venezuela’s attacking leaves a lot to be desired. I expect defensive tactics from Venezuela with counter-attacks formed around Orozco and although there’s always a decent portion of that in youth tournaments like this anyway, I just don’t see any kind of consistent threat from this Venezuelan team.
However, Uruguay have a good side, in my opinion. Argentina needed to come from behind and score a last-gasp winner to beat Uruguay in Uruguay’s opening game so they’ll feel a little wronged from that game and perhaps justly so. Nonetheless, Uruguay do have a good side and this is the perfect opportunity for them to showcase that, particularly as they need a win. They’ve got competitive match experience ahead of this game, unlike Venezuela, so they do have an advantage here. They have some very good “potential future star” players too, namely Atletico Madrid stiker Gallegos, Recreativo de Huelva defender Cabrera, Genoa defender Polenta (captain of the Uruguay U20 team), Tacuarembo striker Luis Machado, Montevideo Wanderers midfielder Guzman Pereira, and Defensor Sporting attacker Adrian Luna. All of these players have the capacity to change a game and they should have the ability to do that tonight against a side that I can only describe as inferior opposition.
This is a must-win game for Uruguay; Venezuela are only here for pride. I must be fair to the Venezuelans and say that they are improving as a footballing nation but to be realistic, they’re still some distance away from the likes of Uruguay. Venezuela have and have always had problems with goalscoring. They scored just three goals in four games back in Paraguay 2007, which is really very poor for a record in a tournament that barely recognises defending as part of the game. Venezuela hosted the last Sudamericano and before you get carried away about Venezuela acutally qualifying for the latter stages of that tournament – it should be noted that they only qualified as they drew three out of four games in a group dominated by terrible football before inevitably crashing out without any of their players having scored more than a single goal. Venezuela have some decent players but they’re out of their depth against this Uruguay side, in my view, so 8/11 on a Uruguay win looks appealing here.
Verdict: Uruguay U20 to win at 8/11.
Botswana vs Sweden – under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Botswana have named a virtually full-strength team for this friendly in South Africa wheras Sweden have called up a lot of “unknowns” into their squad with only Anders Svensson and Tobias Hysen having frequented their side before. They’ve called up the likes of Rasmus Jonsson from Helsingborg, pacey Alexander Gernt (also from Helsingborg), IFK Goteborg midfielder Sebastian Eriksson, and midfielder Jiloan Hamad from Malmo FF. Sweden have some decent players here but it’s largely an uncapped side, hence them being priced at 4/5 to win this game. Most of you aren’t familiar with Botswana and I can undertand that; they’re hardly blessed with household names. However, as a unit, this side is rapidly becoming infamous for being hard to beat. They’ve done the double over Tunisia in the last year or so and they’ve kept seven clean sheets in their last nine games so don’t write them off here. Botswana are going to take tremendous pride into this game so Sweden are in for a tough game, in my view. Botswana’s finishing hasn’t ever been great so I don’t see many goals here but for me, under 2.5 goals at 3/4 looks a decent call.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 3/4.
LOSC Lille vs AS Nancy-Lorraine – both sides to score at evens.
Anyone that backs Lille to win this game at 2/5 wants shooting! Lille are not worthy of such short odds – they’d have to have Messi or Ronaldo in their team to earn those odds, in my view, and to the best of my knowledge, they have neither.
Lille have delightful playmaker Hazard in their team, who will almost certainly be a star in future. However, if you view this side as anything more than a hard-working unit with a good manager then good luck to you. Lille are not a Lyon or a Marseille; they are literally a hard-working side with one or two quality players. I don’t know about the rest of you, but that doesn’t equate to 2/5 to me.
However, what cannot be denied is Lille’s ability to find the net. No other Ligue 1 side has scored as many times as they have this season with Lille averaging scoring nearly two goals per game so they are be taken seriously. Intriguingly, Lille are top of the table due to their away form, not their home form, in my view. Lille don’t always win away from home but they rarely lose and that’s quite key here, in my view. Lille haven’t won a mass of home games this season – few French sides do – but the reason that they’ve not isn’t because they don’t score goals. No – this side averages scoring exactly two goals per home game because Hazard, Sow, and Gervinho link up very dangerously and Lille score goals as a result. The reason that Lille aren’t winning more of their home games is because they concede too many goals at home. Indeed, only Paris Saint-Germain, AS Nancy-Lorraine, Auxerre, Stade Malherbe de Caen, Racing Club Lens, and Arles have conceded more at home than Lille have this season. Barring PSG, all of those sides are in the bottom-half of the table so I think it’s fair to observe that their defensive record simply isn’t good enough and it’s also something that people gloss over when viewing that Lille are top of the table and thus “must win every game”. Lille have only kept two clean sheets in nine home games in Ligue 1 – once against PSG at the start of the season and once against impotent Auxerre. Everyone else has scored against them so why not Nancy today?
Nancy failed to find the net during a tough trip to Toulouse last match but I think that the statistics don’t truly reflect the difficulty of the trip; Toulouse are a good home side. Nancy tend to enjoy their away games as just three defeats in nine away games in Ligue 1 indicates all too well so don’t underestimate them here. They attack well and defend quite well although they tend to rely on their counter-attacks a little too often, hence their unconvincing goalscoring ratio at home. Nancy always give Lille a tough game when they travel to face them though – they’ve scored for their last four consecutive visits, losing three times and winning once along the way. There is rarely a big margin between Lille and Nancy and observing that leading goalscorer Hadji is back in the team for this game after his absence against Toulouse, I have to give Nancy their chances here.
I think the odds are scandalous on a Lille win here as I don’t believe there’s that kind of gap in quality between any two sides in Ligue 1; well, barring Arles and a good side, perhaps. I certainly don’t see the quality gap here so I would advise avoiding the home win unless you find better odds. However, Lille and Nancy tend to play out a good game of football with both sides often scoring when Lille are at home so backing both sides to score here looks intriguing. Nancy have only failed to score in one away game in Ligue 1 this season and that was against Olympique de Marseille so Lille have a tough job ahead of them tonight. Therefore, both sides to score at evens looks far better value than the home win, in my humble opinion, so that’s my call here.
Team news – Nancy miss Bracigilano, Alo’o Efoulou, Le Crom, and Chahechouhe.
Verdict: Both sides to score at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Internazionale, AFC Ajax Amsterdam, Twente Enschede.
Recommended bets:
Uruguay U20, AFC Ajax Amsterdam, and Internazionale at 3/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Asian Cup:
United Arab Emirates vs Iran (5) 1-2
Iraq vs North Korea (6) 1-1
Copa Sudamericano U20:
Venezuela vs Uruguay (7) over 2.5 goals
International Friendly:
Botswana vs Sweden (6) under 2.5 goals (played in South Africa)
English FA Cup:
Leeds United vs Arsenal (4) 1-1
French Ligue 1:
LOSC Lille vs AS Nancy-Lorraine (6) both sides to score
French Ligue 2:
Stade Lavallois vs Le Mans (5) under 2.5 goals
Metz vs Istres (6)
Sedan-Ardennes vs Chateauroux (4)
Italian Serie A:
Internazionale vs Cesena (9) -1.5 handicap
Dutch Eredivisie:
Twente Enschede vs Heracles Almelo (8) 2-1
VVV Venlo vs FC Utrecht (4) 1-2
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Feyenoord Rotterdam (8) -1.5 handicap
AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen (6) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!