AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Real Madrid
FreeToday’s featured game is the only UEFA Champions League game of the evening to intrigue me and it features Dutch heavyweights AFC Ajax Amsterdam hosting UEFA Champions League hopefuls Real Madrid. This game in the Netherlands sees two massive clubs from their respective countries lock horns and should prove to be a fascinating occasion with that in mind, whatever the outcome.
Hosts Ajax don’t enter this game in the best frame of mind, however. They need three points desperately, especially as their last game in this group involves a daunting trip to the San Siro, but they’re looking less and less likely to obtain those three points as each game goes by. Ajax have failed to register a goal in three out of their last four games with the only exception being a home cup game with Eerste Divisie outfit Veendam. You can look at the fact that two of those games were against title rivals PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar respectively and ignore that fact if you so desire but the fact that concerns me here is that Ajax are a fast-paced, flambuoyant, attacking side – goalscoring is their only weapon. Ajax haven’t been competent in defence for years, relying on their potent attacking ability to overcome sides. Unfortunately for Ajax, the days are gone when this tactic would work in European football and thus they’ve found Champions League football hard this year. As ever, they have some very promising academy products that will no doubt become excellent players but at the present time, Ajax are not a side that is capable of threatening a frankly superior Real Madrid side. Ajax have not only struggled to score in their last few games but they’ve struggled to create chances too, which is even more worrying. They were held off rather easily by local rivals ADO Den Haag and PSV Eindhoven outplayed them at the Amsterdam ArenA at weekend so Ajax really do have a lot to be concerned about here. The frustration showed last match as Luis Suarez decided to bite a PSV player and has subsequently been banned for two Eredivisie games by the Dutch FA but if Ajax’s arguably best player is losing it then it doesn’t say a lot for the morale of the team. All in all, this game has come at the wrong time for Ajax and I really don’t fancy their chances here as a result.
Real Madrid’s surprising inability to win at AC Milan despite dominating them in their last Champions League game means that Madrid still have at least some motivation to win this game. A win here guarantees them top spot in the group although to be honest, they’re very likely to be top of the group either way. Nonetheless, Mourinho wants to win every game that he can with Madrid and that has been shown in all the competitions that Madrid have participated in this season – there’s been passion, goals, but most impressive of all is their actual competence, something I personally don’t usually associate with Real Madrid’s mannerisms due to their eccentric and over-zealous board. Jose Mourinho has transformed this team over overpaid individuals into a very good team; something he effortlessly does in a fantastic way. Madrid look strong in defence and potent in front of goal with Ronaldo and Higuain running the show. Every time Mourinho is in charge of a side he turns them into a magnificent tactical unit. A couple of examples – their win at Gijon lately without even conceding a goal. Gijon is never an easy away game and the home fans wanted blood after Mourinho suggested that they were unlikely to rest players against Madrid (the opposite of what they did against Barcelona) so Gijon gave a spirited fight and Mourinho still deflated the situation with ease. They hosted Bilbao last match, a resilient side that knows no end to their stamina, and a side that loathes Real Madrid. What happened? Mourinho exploited the one obvious weakness and Madrid won the game calmly by taking their chances, eventually running out 5-1 winners. This guy is an absolute genius when it comes to winning football games and make no mistake here – I wouldn’t be backing Madrid in this game without him in charge. He’s done wonders for that almost forgotten club and if I’m totally honest with you, I’d argue that they’re the most “complete” side in European football at the present time. I never thought I’d be making that argument but here we are! Bluntly; Madrid look bloody good with the Portuguese mastermind in charge and I fancy them to win this one with some ease.
The old rivalry between big clubs of Europe will still exist for this game and irrespective of how Ajax have played of late, they still need three points here and will work hard for it. I question their morale after such a barren run, however, and doubt they’ll take their chances against a decent Madrid backline. Ajax simply can’t defend, however, and I think Madrid will have a lot of fun against them as a result. For me, evens on the away win is too generous for what I can only label as a “mismatch” of sides here so my call is the away win.
Verdict: Real Madrid to win at evens – why not bet on this game now at Bwin?
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Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Kashima Antlers vs Jubilo Iwata – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
With just three rounds of J-League fixtures remaining, Kashima Antlers really need to seize the initiative and not go dropping any stupid points. Realistically, if they manage to avoid defeat in all three of their remaining games, then I personally believe they’ll attain their customary Asian Champions League place for next season as I don’t believe the clubs that trail themselves and Gamba Osaka will obtain enough points to pass them. Nonetheless, a win today certainly boosts their chances of gaining their Champions League place so they will be motivated to do so. However, opponents Jubilo Iwata have nothing to play for here as they’re safe from relegation already so I suspect they’ll revert to their usual “Plan B” i.e. ten men behind the ball. Jubilo Iwata like to embarrass the bigger/better sides in this division by not losing away from home against them, something that they’ve already achieved on trips to Kawasaki Frontale, Shimizu S-Pulse, and Urawa Red Diamonds this season, and it’s not done by Jubilo Iwata being a good goalscoring side because they most definitely are not! It’s no coincidence that three out of the last four games (including the last two played at Kashima Antlers!) between these two outfits have gone under 2.5 goals as one side is expected to win but struggles to break down resilient sides and the other side purely plays to avoid defeat. The above is exactly what I expect to occur today, to be frank!
As the lowest scoring and lowest conceding side in the J-League away from home, it’s no surprise that thirteen out of fifteen J-League away games have gone under 2.5 goals for Jubilo Iwata this season. However, what you may not know is that nine out of Kashima Antlers’ fifteen J-League home games have also gone under 2.5 goals so we’ve got the scene set quite well here. Unlike most of their contemporaries, Kashima Antlers focus much more on defence than attack and that approach doesn’t work well against sides like Jubilo Iwata for obvious reasons. Antlers have played well of late and should have enough momentum to take three points from this game but I see it being a cautious and low-scoring affair with neither side wanting to be embarrassed here. Therefore, my call here is under 2.5 goals, which is priced quite generously at 4/5.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
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Accumulator fodder:
Chelsea, Bournemouth, Chesterfield, Gamba Osaka.
Recommended bets:
Chelsea and Real Madrid at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA Champions League:
Spartak Moscow vs Olympique de Marseille (5) under 2.5 goals
AS Roma vs Bayern Munich (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Basel vs CFR Cluj (6) over 2.5 goals
Chelsea vs MSK Zilina (8) 2-0
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Real Madrid (7) 0-2
Auxerre vs AC Milan (4) 0-1
Partizan Belgrade vs Shakhtar Donetsk (5) under 2.5 goals
Sporting Braga vs Arsenal (6) over 2.5 goals
English League One:
Bournemouth vs Yeovil Town (8)
Southampton vs Brighton & Hove Albion (6)
Huddersfield Town vs Milton Keynes Dons (7) over 2.5 goals
Oldham Athletic vs Exeter City (4)
Peterborough United vs Leyton Orient (6) over 2.5 goals
Notts County vs Swindon Town (5)
Tranmere Rovers vs Hartlepool United (6) under 2.5 goals
Sheffield Wednesday vs Walsall (6)
Colchester United vs Brentford (6) over 2.5 goals
Plymouth Argyle vs Dagenham & Redbridge (5)
Carlisle United vs Rochdale (7)
Charlton Athletic vs Bristol Rovers (6) over 2.5 goals
English League Two:
Macclesfield Town vs Cheltenham Town (6) over 2.5 goals
Burton Albion vs Aldershot Town (5)
Bradford City vs Accrington Stanley (3)
Shrewsbury Town vs Hereford United (7)
Rotherham United vs Northampton Town (6) over 2.5 goals
Stockport County vs Port Vale (4) draw no bet
Chesterfield vs Oxford United (8)
Stevenage vs Southend United (6) under 2.5 goals
Lincoln City vs Bury (6) over 2.5 goals
Wycombe Wanderers vs Torquay United (7) over 2.5 goals
Barnet vs Gillingham (6)
Japanese J-League:
Kashima Antlers vs Jubilo Iwata (7) under 2.5 goals
Yokohama F.Marinos vs Urawa Red Diamonds (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (6) 2-1
Nagoya Grampus vs Tokyo (7) over 2.5 goals
Gamba Osaka vs Shonan Bellmare (9) -1.5 handicap
Omiya Ardija vs Vissel Kobe (5) 1-0
Kawasaki Frontale vs Cerezo Osaka (4) 1-1
Albirex Niigata vs Vegalta Sendai (7) 2-0
Montedio Yamagata vs Kyoto Sanga (6) under 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!