African Nations
FreeI’ve decided that it’s about time we had a bit of a preview for this tournament as it starts soon enough.
Ultimately, I can’t help but feel that the trophy will be in North Africa by the end of the tournament. Why? Well, the African Nations tends to be won by the best tactical side nowadays and only the North African sides know what tactics are so that does give them an advantage.
Group A – Angola, Mali, Malawi, Algeria
Angola are the hosts so it’s wise not to underestimate them although their form has decreased ever since their remarkable showing in the last African Nations tournament. They’ve got a few good individuals but I’ll be surprised if they qualify for the latter stages. The winner of this group really should be Algeria or Mali and I’d have to lean towards Algeria for their tactical prowess. Mali are a good side and enjoy scoring goals but tend to concede more than they should. I’ll be surprised if those two sides don’t make it out of this group. Malawi really should finish bottom of this group rather comfortably as they don’t have enough to trouble the bigger sides in this group. This group looks more like an unders group than an overs because then sides here aren’t as potent and tend to be low-scoring with the exception of Mali.
Group B – Ivory Coast, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo
A lot of people are bleating about Ivory Coast and Ghana. Both have good squads and fantastic individuals but they’re not good enough tactically so I wouldn’t look there personally as winners of the tournament. As far as the group itself goes, both sides should make it out. Ivory Coast are my “definite” to make it out but I feel Ghana could be undone by Burkina Faso so be careful there. Burkina Faso are often underrated by people but they’re a potent side that love to attack so they’re not worth underestimating. Togo simply rely too heavily on Adebayor and whereas that works against lesser sides, I can’t see it having much effect here so they should be bottom of the group. There should be a lot of goals in the group games so look at taking overs and I expect the pivotal game should be between Burkina Faso and Ghana – the winner of that should come second.
Group C – Egypt, Nigeria, Mozambique, Benin
Reigning champions Egypt have won this tournament more than any other nation and I don’t think it’s a good idea to overlook them for this one too. Their World Cup Qualifiers form wasn’t as good as it should have been and they tend to have problems breaking down the smaller sides. However, they’re the most tactically sound side in the tournament and should win this group. Nigeria are overrated by too many people nowadays purely because of their name, which is suicidal in betting. They’re not what they were as they don’t score enough goals or play well enough and I fancy them to take an early exit from their group with Benin qualifying behind Egypt. Benin are underestimated by many but I’m not sure why – they’re a good side and a potent side. If you want a surprise package then Benin is your team! Mozambique are the worst side in the African Nations, in my opinion, and really should lose every game in this group – this is definitely the side to handicap against! Advice – don’t back Egypt on the handicap because they don’t score enough goals to merit it. Look at unders for Egypt’s games!
Group D – Cameroon, Gabon, Zambia, Tunisia
Cameroon had a poor World Cup Qualifiers run and were fortunate to make it. They’ve got some great individuals but I don’t expect much from them in this tournament. They should make it out of this group but I expect them to go out in the next round. Gabon are a potent side but aren’t good enough defensively so look at overs for their games – I expect them to finish third. Zambia should finish bottom but don’t underestimate them – they’re good at keeping sides out on their day so don’t handicap against them. Tunisia could be a real surprise package for this tournament because they’re sound tactically. They need to be at their best because they don’t score enough goals but I wouldn’t underestimate them whatsoever. I’m not sure whether Cameroon or Tunisia will win the group but they should be the two progressing sides. Take unders for the Tunisia games and overs for the Gabon games.
Summarised – you have to look at Egypt, Algeria, or even Tunisia for the trophy this year, in my opinion. Egypt are the best tactically but haven’t been as clinical in recent times, leading to problems. Algeria have become very competent lately and are playing like Egypt did in the last tournament so don’t overlook them either. Tunisia are the least strong of these three North African nations but they can be as good on their day. None of these sides concede many goals at all so look at unders, particularly if they face each other. If forced to choose a side instead of three, however, I think I’d stick my neck out and say Algeria this year.
Good luck all!
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
SSC Napoli vs Sampdoria – home win at 10/11.
Hosts SSC Napoli are a side that enjoy fucking up a lot of bets for a lot of people due to their unpredictability. Nonetheless, they’ve been playing very well in recent times, enough so for me to take a gamble on them. They’ve now gone unbeaten in eleven Serie A games, winning six of those games. Napoli have won their last two home games consecutively and generally carry very strong momentum at the present time. Napoli have a good home record in Serie A this year with five wins and three draws in eight games, averaging scoring nearly two goals per game. Their most significant feature of late is that they’re not conceding many goals, which is always a good thing in a tactically-minded Serie A. Napoli do boast a wealth of talent in their squad and it’s finally starting to show.
Visitors Sampdoria largely overachieved at the start of this season and are finally beginning to enter reality now with no wins in their past five Serie A games, losing three of those games. Sampdoria have scored two goals in those five games but have conceded ten goals, thus spelling out a clear problem. Sampdoria are not only short on momentum but the mere fact that they’ve already lost six out of nine away games this season suggests that Sampdoria are going to struggle here today. Sampdoria were crushed by minnows Livorno 3-0 lately, which must be worrying for Sampdoria because they’re facing a much better side than Livorno today. Sampdoria have managed to score a paltry six goals on the road all season, one of the lowest totals in Serie A, and also boast the embarassing record of being the biggest conceding away side in the whole division, averaging over two goals conceded per away game.
With the above information in mind, it’s almost impossible for me to consider anything but a home win occurring in this game today.
Verdict: SSC Napoli to win at 10/11.
Academica de Coimbra vs Naval de Maio – home win at 10/11.
Hosts Academica de Coimbra have had what I would call an unfortunate season so far. They’re twelfth in the Liga Sagres but play some deceptively good football sometimes, particularly of late. In fact, Academica have now won their last three Liga Sagres home games consecutively, scoring seven goals and without conceding a single goal. Whereas their opponents were hardly at the level of Porto or Benfica, they were sides that I’d happily group with Naval de Maio quality-wise. Few sides have scored as many goals as Academica have this season, particularly outside of the top four places. It’d be stupid to underestimate this side, particularly as they boast some good momentum at the moment and are playing good football to boot.
Visitors Naval de Maio are one of the lowest scoring away sides in the division with just three goals scored in seven games. Naval concede 1.5 goals per away game on average and have already lost four out of seven away games this season, which leaves them in poor shape for this game. Although Naval have only been beaten twice in their last five Liga Sagres games, they’re simply not scoring enough goals to be a consistent thorn in the side of sides like Academica, in my opinion. It’ll be interesting to see how a defensively-minded Naval approach the game against a potent Academica side but ultimately there’s enough on show for Naval to stumble here.
With Academica playing well and scoring goals, it’s hard to see them losing their impressive run of home wins here today against a poor Naval de Maio side.
Verdict: Academica de Coimbra to win at 10/11.
Carregado vs Beira-Mar – away win at 6/5.
Hosts Carregado are currently bottom of the Liga de Honra with just two wins in fourteen games. They’ve lost eight of those games and have lost four out of their last five games overall, demoralising the squad massively and robbing them of any momentum. Carregado’s home form is just as bad as their away form, which plays a big part in the problems that they’re having too. With four defeats in seven home games, Carregado are looking unlikely to avoid the dreaded drop and with no momentum to speak of, they’re looking even less likely to even make a fight to get out of it.
Visitors Beira-Mar are having a good season so far and currently occupy second place in the Liga de Honra. They’ve won three out of their last four games and drew the other encounter, which was an impressive result in itself in a nightmarish away game against Santa Clara. Beira-Mar owe a great deal of their success to the fact that they’re one of the biggest goalscoring sides in the division. What I like most about this point is that they don’t have a focal goalscorer; they spread their goals around the side so they’re very much a “team” in every sense of the word. With such strong momentum behind them and one of the best away records in the divison in their arsenal (three wins, two draws, and just two defeats in seven away games) it’s hard to see Beira-Mar failing to make the most of their chance of three points today.
Verdict: Beira-Mar to win at 6/5.
Accumulator fodder – APOEL Nicosia, AEK Athens, Olympiakos Piraeus, Aris Salonika, Porto, Genoa, Valencia, Real Madrid, Ponferradina, Palencia, Alcorcon, Universidad Las Palmas, Sant Andreu.
Recommended bets:
Medium stakes – Alcorcon, Valencia, APOEL Nicosia, and AEK Athens in four-team accumulator at 4/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
African Nations:
Angola vs Mali (5) 1-1
Australian A-League:
Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne Victory (5) 1-1
Perth Glory vs Sydney FC (8) 1-1
Cypriot Division 1:
APEP vs AEL Limassol (5) 2-1
Doxa vs A.E.Paphos (7) 1-1
APOEL Nicosia vs Enosis Neon Paralimni (8) -1.75 handicap
English Premier League:
West Ham United vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (6) 2-1
English Championship:
Leicester City vs Ipswich Town (7)
Greek Super League:
Asteras Tripolis vs Kavala (6) 1-1
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Larissa (8) 2-1
Panthrakikos vs PAS Giannina (6) 0-0
Aris Salonika vs Iraklis (8) 1-0
AEK Athens vs Atromitos (8) 2-1
Greek B Ethniki:
Ethnikos Piraeus vs Pierikos Katerini (7)
Aigaelo Athens vs Diagoras Rodos (6)
Ionikos Nikaias vs Panserraikos (7)
Kerkyra vs Ilioupoli (9)
Panaitolikos Agrinio vs Doxa Dramas (6)
Rhodos vs Olympiakos Volos (5)
Thrasivoulos vs Kalamata (6)
Italian Serie A:
Bologna vs Cagliari (7) 1-1
Fiorentina vs Bari (7) under 2.5 goals
Genoa vs Catania (8) over 2.5 goals
Livorno vs Parma (6) 0-1
SSC Napoli vs Sampdoria (8) 2-0
Palermo vs Atalanta Bergamo (8) 2-1
Udinese vs Lazio (5) 1-1
Juventus vs AC Milan (6) 2-2
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Olhanense vs Pacos de Ferreira (5) 0-1
Academica de Coimbra vs Naval de Maio (7) 2-1
Porto vs Leiria (8) 2-0
Portuguese Liga de Honra:
Carregado vs Beira-Mar (7)
Sporting Covilha vs Varzim (6) over 2.5 goals
Penafiel vs Freamunde (5)
Feirense vs Estoril (7)
Portimonense vs Oliveirense (7)
Fatima vs Desportivo Chaves (6)
Spanish Primera Liga:
Sporting Gijon vs Getafe (7) 1-1
Deportivo Xerez vs Valencia (9) 0-2
Espanyol vs Real Zaragoza (5) 1-0
Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna (4) 1-1
Malaga vs Athletic Club de Bilbao (5) 1-2
Real Madrid vs Real Mallorca (8) over 2.5 goals
Tenerife vs Barcelona (7) 1-2
Spanish Segunda B:
Group 1:
Celta de Vigo II vs Guijuelo (6)
Montaneros vs Zamora (8)
Mirandes vs Lugo (5)
Palencia vs Compostela (8)
Ponferradina vs Racing Club de Ferrol (8)
Pontevedra vs Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa (5)
Izarra vs Deportivo Alaves (6)
Group 2:
Alcorcon vs Real Sociedad Gimnastia Torrelavega (8)
Real Racing Club Santander II vs Leganes (6) over 2.5 goals
Real Sporting de Gijon II vs Cerro Reyes Badajoz (5)
Universidad Las Palmas vs Lanzarote (9)
Tenerife II vs Vecindario (5)
Conquense vs Alcala Henares (6)
Cacareno vs Puertollano (6)
Toledo vs Real Oviedo (5)
Atletico Madrid II vs Real Madrid II (6) over 2.5 goals
Group 3:
Atletico Gramenet vs Mallorca II (7)
Gava vs Valencia II (6)
Denia vs Terrassa (7)
Sant Andreu vs Lleida (9)
Benidorm vs Orihuela (5)
Sabadell vs Ontinyent (6) under 2.5 goals
Logrones vs Villajoyosa (6)
Alcoyano vs Alicante (7)
Group 4:
Union Estepona vs Granada (7)
Sevilla II vs Real Betis Balompie II (6)
Aguilas vs Melilla (6)
Moratalla vs Real Murcia II (7)
Caravaca vs Roquetas (7)
Real Jaen vs Polideportivo Ejido (7)
Ceuta vs Ciudad de Murcia (8)
San Roque vs Marbella (8)
Ecija Balompie vs Jerez Industrial (7)
Lucena vs Sangonera Atletico (5)
Enjoy your free betting tips!