Aktobe Lento vs Hapoel Tel-Aviv
FreeToday’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League Qualifier in Kazakhstan between Aktobe Lento and Hapoel Tel-Aviv. Both sides have played in this competition already in the previous round and both are accustomed to this competition due to experience so we should see an interesting encounter today.
Aktobe Lento overcame Olimpi Rustavi in the last round by easing to victory at home to the Georgians but drawing away from home, which was enough as it happened. However, Aktobe Lento are facing a much better side than Olimpi Rustavi today and whereas I don’t like backing the away side when they’re playing in Kazakhstan, which is always a tough away game, I have to so today due to the class difference. Aktobe Lento certainly aren’t what they were and their domestic form this season shows that all too clearly with goals being conceded far too easily and nowhere near enough goals being scored. Aktobe Lento last hosted Israeli opposition here in 2009, facing a decent Maccabi Haifa side and drawing 0-0. They’ve got a good enough home record in European football with one single defeat over the past few years at home and that was against a good Werder Bremen side. However, I would point out that Aktobe Lento’s opponents weren’t as good as this Hapoel Tel-Aviv side so I really fear for them today.
Visitors Hapoel Tel-Aviv have impressed me so much over the past two years in European football that it’s unreal. I never thought I’d be as impressed by an Israeli side as I was with Maccabi Haifa when they first had Yakubu but I’ve been proven wrong. Hapoel Tel-Aviv play some superb football and their comfortable 6-0 demolition of Zeljeznicar Sarajevo over two legs was thoroughly deserved. I won’t deny that the Bosnia-Herzegovina outfit had their problems but Hapoel were cool, calm, and clinical, something I’ve started to realise is a common part of their game rather than just a one-off. They boast Nigerian star goalkeeper Vincent Enyeama, former Ajax midfielder Daniel de Ridder, and former Lokomotiv Moscow striker Nemanja Vucicevic so they’re not short of talent in this side. What I like about Hapoel is that they take the game to their opponents. Although they’re competent enough defensively, they much prefer to attack and score goals and it often pays off. Last year they destroyed a very good Rapid Vienna side on the road, gave a strong Hamburger SV side a hellish game in a 4-2 defeat, and were unfortunate to lose at Celtic. Hapoel often turn up away from home, not to mention at home (no defeats in their last four European home games, winning three times) so don’t underestimate the Israelis here. I really rate Hapoel Tel-Aviv and feel they’re far superior to the hosts today and I’ll be surprised to see it not show by the final whistle.
I called a Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv away win earlier in this competition in a game on a difficult trip to Armenia to face Ulisses Yerevan. Bnei controlled the game but failed to convert their chances and drew the game. Hapoel Tel-Aviv are a much better side and whereas they’re also facing a better side, they’re far better equipped to take their chances and control the game. I’m a little concerned that the hosts have more match fitness than the visitors because they’re mid-season but that’s my only concern because the visitors are an awful lot better than Aktobe Lento and I expect the result to reflect that at decent odds of evens today.
Verdict: Hapoel Tel-Aviv to win at evens.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Debreceni VSC vs Basel – over 2.5 goals at evens.
I can’t contribute as much as I’d like here other than that both sides are big goalscoring sides and don’t pay anywhere near as much attention to defence as they probably should. Debreceni have conceded in both Champions League games so far this season against an inferior Levadia Tallinn side from Estonia but have scored in both games too, hence my point. Basel are a similar side but of marginally higher quality and their overs are well-documented both domestically and in European football enough for me to not labour the point. Three out of Debreceni’s last four home games in European competition have gone over 2.5 goals and four out of Basel’s last six away games have gone over 2.5 goals in European competition. Both sides were obviously facing different opponents but it’s generally a good gauge to see how each side approaches their respective away games and both sides often favour the attacking route. It favours our cause that Basel are marginally better because Debreceni know they have to make it count tonight and yet Basel aren’t good enough to sit and defend for the draw. I think the away win is a bit short here but I do like over 2.5 goals because of the above information so it should be worth a punt today.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs PAOK Salonika – under 2.5 goals at 10/11.
I’m a massive advocate of Martin Jol’s Ajax side with their consistent potency but I have my concerns over their style in Europe. For instance, consider that this massively potent side has only scored more than two goals just once in their last eleven home games in European football during an inspired display at home to Slovakian giants Slovan Bratislava. In more recent times since then, Ajax have drawn blanks at home to Poli Timisoara of Romania, lost at home to Anderlecht of Belgium in convincing fashion, and edged past Dinamo Zagreb of Croatia. Ajax’s tactics, to be blunt, aren’t always as effective in Europe as they are domestically. Yes, they beat Chelsea in a friendly lately but what does that mean? Chelsea were resting players and their shit goalkeeper who was bought to boost the number of English players in their squad Ross Turnbull made some howlers and thus the hosts won. Ajax have real problems in attack at the moment, largely because they bizarrely let Pantelic leave in the window and they’ve not replaced him yet. Everyone lauded Suarez but Pantelic did a hell of a lot of graft for Suarez to claim the praise that he got and I think we might see that this season unless Ajax move swiftly. It’s astounding, really, with both Mido and El Hamdaoui lined up to join the squad but neither of which are available to play. Luis Suarez hasn’t been playing because he’s been in Spain where his wife lives as she’s heavily pregnant but he will feature in this game, somewhat short of match practice however. I’m a big fan of Sulejmani but will he play after criticising Martin Jol of late? Ajax are going to have to rely heavily on their young but talented midfielders i.e. Lodeiro, Eriksen, Aissati to make anything happen today and they’re facing resolute opponents so I don’t see Ajax running away with it today.
PAOK are a good side and are definitely on the rise in Greece. However, they have their own problems today, most notably because star striker Zlatan Muslimovic didn’t travel to Netherlands with the squad, which limits their attack considerably. Not only that, but PAOK strangely fired coach Mario Beretta after a mere few weeks in the job and replaced him with former Panthrakikos boss Dermitzakis, who was a very defensive-minded coach at best. PAOK are good at controlling games and winning by the odd goal domestically but we all know how different European football is and I doubt they’ll have it their own way. To be honest, I don’t see PAOK scoring tonight so it’s up to Ajax to do the damage. PAOK will come here with their inexperienced manager to contain the hosts and maybe they’ll succeed, especially with the Dutch hosts so short in attack.
However, I’m not too concerned about the outcome as the odds don’t interest me. What does interest me is the under 2.5 goals selection at 10/11 because both sides are short of key men in attack, neither have competitive match practice under their belts, and both play possession football. To me, this game screams under 2.5 goals and although I think Ajax could and should win it, I don’t feel they merit the odds that they’re currently at with such a shortage in attack.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 10/11.
KooTeePee Kotka vs MP Mikkeli – under 2.5 goals at evens.
These are puzzling odds. I can’t think of a more under 2.5 goals side in the world other than Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk of Ukraine than KooTeePee Kotka. They’re a we’ll-win-by-a-single-goal-or-draw-trying side and they’re also massively out-of-form. They’re hosting a side that they know they’re better than but will they do it on the back of four defeats in their last five games? I’ve no idea. KooTeePee have lost two consecutive games at home, one at home to superior PoPa Pori and the other at home to impotent Hameenlinna, which was a dismal result. However, KooTeePee have improved in their last two games despite not scoring, keeping a clean sheet in their draw at lowly TPV Tampere and losing 1-0 at OPS Oulu in their last game so at least they’re on the up. Their potency is still very low, as it always is when they’re in-form, so I’m confident about them not scoring many (if any) and keeping the goals conceded low as they’re hosting a weak opponent. MP Mikkeli won their last match at home to fellow newly-promoted FC Espoo but it’s their first win in eleven games, losing nine times along the way, including a defeat at home against their opponents today. MP don’t score enough goals and concede far too easily so they’re good to bet against on the road. However, they’re facing a very impotent opponent today and with only three goals scored in seven away games themselves this season, it’s hard to see anything but a low-scoring game here today, particularly with KooTeePee averaging scoring just one goal per home game so far this season.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
IFK Norrkoping vs Assyriska Sodertalje – home win at evens.
Superettan giants IFK Norrkoping are finally back in form with three consecutive wins. Norrkoping have already won five out of eight home games this season with just one defeat along the way as they’re finally enforcing their giant status in this division, something they failed to do for the majority of last season. They average scoring two goals per home game and have scored eight goals over their last three games whilst keeping three clean sheets so they’ve got momentum and confidence a-plenty entering this game and I really fancy them to win the game as a result.
Assyriska Sodertalje are a funny side, much like bitter rivals Syrianska Sodertalje are. Both sides are always capable of playing good football but do it so inconsistently that it’s impossible to back them with any kind of confidence. Assyriska have lost three out of their last four away games whilst conceding eight times along the way and whereas Assyriska always look like scoring away from home, they rarely do enough to get a result because of hideous defending. They were good on the road earlier this season but have collapsed of late and can’t seem to pick themselves up as a result. Assyriska are strong enough at home to trouble the likes of Norrkoping but away from home, they’ve been caught out a lot of late and I expect that to happen today too as they face arguably the best side in the Superettan.
Norrkoping have won this fixture at home for two seasons running now despite not playing great football. They’re now playing good football and should be more than capable of reproducing that form and winning with some ease. I’m just rather surprised that the odds are as generous as they are, to be honest!
Verdict: IFK Norrkoping to win at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Partizan Belgrade, HB Torshavn, Nagoya Grampus.
Recommended bets:
Hapoel Tel-Aviv and IFK Norrkoping at 3/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
UEFA European Champions League Qualifiers:
Aktobe Lento vs Hapoel Tel-Aviv (7) 0-2
BATE Borisov vs FC Copenhagen (5) 1-1
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Dinamo Zagreb (5) 1-0
Debreceni VSC vs Basel (5) 2-2
Young Boys Bern vs Feherbahce (6) 1-2
AIK Solna vs Rosenborg BK (7) 0-0
Partizan Belgrade vs HJK Helsinki (8) 2-0
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs PAOK Salonika (7) under 2.5 goals
Sporting Braga vs Celtic (6) 1-0
Copa Libertadores:
Internacional vs Sao Paulo (6) 1-0
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Deportivo Cuenca vs Liga de Quito (5) 1-1
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
HB Torshavn vs B71 Sandur (9) -1.75 handicap
Finnish Ykkonen:
KooTeePee Kotka vs MP Mikkeli (6) under 2.5 goals
Japanese J-League:
Montedio Yamagata vs Kawasaki Frontale (4) 1-2
Omiya Ardija vs Yokohama F.Marinos (4) 0-1
Tokyo vs Jubilo Iwata (8) 0-0
Nagoya Grampus vs Shonan Bellmare (8) 2-0
Kyoto Sanga vs Urawa Red Diamonds (5) 1-1
Vissel Kobe vs Gamba Osaka (5) 1-2
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Sandnes Ulf vs Fredrikstad (6)
Singaporean S-League:
Gombak United vs Tampines Rovers (6) 1-1
Swedish Superettan:
Orgryte vs Degerfors (6) under 2.5 goals
Landskrona BoIS vs Ljungskile (5) over 2.5 goals
Angelholm vs Jonkopings Sodra (5)
IFK Norrkoping vs Assyriska Sodertalje (7)
Trollhattan vs Brage (7)
Falkenberg vs Vasby United (4)
Enjoy your free betting tips!