Albania vs Andorra
FreeToday’s featured game is the International Friendly between Albania and Andorra in Tirana. Albania are one of those nations that people tend to underestimate because they don’t know many Albanian footballers but make no mistake – this is a county on the rise.
Albania have proven over the past twelve months just how much they’ve improved as their players are gradually getting more exposed to European football as a whole. The only sides to win in Albania (barring the hosts) in their last nine home games were a very fortunate Portugal side and a well-organised Hungary side. They’ve held Sweden and Denmark here as well as beating Cyprus 6-1 and beating Northern Ireland 1-0 so they’re certainly a capable side. Albania’s last match resulted in a very impressive 1-0 win at Montenegro thanks to a well-organised and efficient display. Frankly, defensively, Albania are one of the better sides in Eastern Europe, in my opinion, due to a strong team spirit and and extremely well-organised side. However, they’re also a capable side in attack with the likes of Bogdani and Salihi to call upon so they’re not to be underestimated in attack. Albania have got some very good players indeed such as Sunderland workhorse Lorik Cana, striker Berisha, midfielder Jahmir Hyka etc. i.e. players that have been exposed to the European game and frankly Albania are a much better side for it, much moreso than most people acknowledge.
Andorra – what can I say about them? They’re one of two nations in Europe that never progress along with San Marino. They’re whipping boys for every side irrespective of what line-up they put out. I made a good amount of money by tipping Iceland to break the -1.75 handicap against Andorra during their last away game (the result was 4-0 in Iceland) because the odds had priced Iceland a lot longer than they should have and I expect a similar outcome today. Hell, Andorra is a side that have not only lost their last eighteen away games consecutively but have lost sixteen of them by two goals or more. They’ve leaked twenty-two goals in their last five away games (an average of over four goals per game!) and haven’t even scored in any of those games so I expect them to crumble yet again today.
Bluntly, Albania are way too good for Andorra, particularly in Tirana. The odds of 1/2 on the -1.75 goal handicap are offered as if the game were on neutral territory – well, either that or the bookies underestimate the hosts. Albania are very good at home and I fully expect them to go to town against Andorra, particularly in front of their passionate home crowd in their nation’s capital, Tirana. Andorra are more than capable of leaking at least two goals in this game and I doubt they’ll be scoring so why Albania are at a very generous 1/2 to win this game by two goals or more is absolutely beyond me; a real bargain, this one!
Verdict: Albania to beat the -1.75 goal handicap at 1/2.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Norway vs Ukraine – home win at 11/10.
This is a very risky call that unfortunately the bookies have priced very well indeed. Norway haven’t convinced of late but have still won whereas Ukraine have convinced lately but have left a lot of their big names behind so are fielding a second string for this game. The odds on the home win look good but when it’s looked at with draw no bet, Norway drops to 4/7, which is clever from the bookies, regrettably!
Nonetheless, the game in Norway should be met with enthusiasm from the hosts due to some good results at home of late. Norway have actually won six out of their last seven games, drawing the other encounter, so either by the hand of fortune or by good displays they’re getting the necessary results thanks to efficient football so you can only respect them at the moment. They’ve beaten some tricky sides of late too – Montenegro, Republic of Macedonia, Slovakia, and Switzerland – so they’re to be taken seriously. They’ve actually won all of their last five home games consecutively whilst scoring twelve times so despite it being a rather unusual position to consider the Norwegians as good goalscorers, you have to give them the respect they’ve earned at the moment.
Visitors Ukraine are a good side, particularly defensively, so they’ll make this hard for Norway whichever second string they field. However, they’ve got a new manager who is inexperienced at international level who takes control of his first international game outside of Ukraine and he’s fielding a weakened side at the hands of experienced and in-form hosts. I don’t know about you guys, but to me that makes them look a tad vulnerable, particularly after a nervy win at home to a disjointed Romania in their last match at home despite fielding a first string of players. I suspect that Ukraine will try to stifle Norway and steal a goal but I doubt they’ll be scoring tonight.
Maybe under 2.5 goals is the best option for this one but the odds don’t interest me enough because they’re too short. Instead, I’m calling a bolder but interesting home win for Norway. It’s going to be a physical and compact game but that’s Norway’s type of game and they’ve got the aerial prowess to make their set pieces count. Ukraine normally would share a similar style of football but cannot possibly do the same as they’re fielding a second string of players – inexperience and lessened ability are a bad combination and one I expect them to be duly punished for tonight.
Verdict: Norway to win at 11/10.
Azerbaijan vs Honduras – Honduras to win at 4/6.
These odds are too long, surely? I’d be more nervous if the game was in Azerbaijan but it’s not – it’s in Austria – so I don’t grasp these odds. Honduras are relatively inexperienced in Europe but put up a very good display in Austria against Belarus with some good attacking football. Both of these two sides have played in Austria for a week or two but Honduras have settled better with Azerbaijan drawing with Moldova and suffering a 3-1 defeat against an under-strength Republic of Macedonia so Azerbaijan are looking particularly vulnerable defensively. Azerbaijan used to be strong defensively and weak in front of goal but now they’ve abandoned their atypically strong defence in favour of attacking…they look weaker. They’ve scored a couple of goals but they’re conceding too many and it’s hampering their results, naturally. Let’s put it this way – if Azerbaijan get drawn into a proper game of football against Honduras then they’ll lose – hispanic sides always have the edge in this type of game due to their natural ability on the ball. That type of game is the one that I expect as the Azeri tend to bed themselves in at home rather than on neutral territory and Honduras have already shown that they know how to find the net so I favour them today. Both sides are capable of scoring here but I’ll be very surprised indeed if Honduras don’t outscore Azerbaijan at fairly good odds of 4/6.
Verdict: Honduras to win at 4/6.
Poland vs Serbia – lay Serbia at 10/11.
This is risky but possibly worthwhile. The game is played on neutral territory as it’s in Austria but both sides enter this game in mixed conditions. Serbia’s poor display against New Zealand last match (in a game that they lost) actually resulted in their own fans rioting, which no doubt heaps pressure on the Serbians to perform today. Nobody can question the superiority of Serbia over Poland football-wise but Serbia’s hindrance has long been goalscoring and they’re facing a similar style physically and tactically so I don’t see why they’re 8/11 to win this one today. They failed to register against New Zealand, who are a decent side but nothing special. Poland are better than New Zealand and although they too don’t score many goals, they still create chances and are hard to score against so I’m still not seeing why Serbia are such heavy favourites here. The pitch is allegedly a mess due to constant rain so nobody’s going to gain an advantage by playing it along the floor today. Bluntly, I’m expecting a physical game from two big, physical sides and I just can’t split them on these terms at the moment so I think a draw is on the cards. Poland are missing striker Jelen and may be missing defender Zewlakow, which are two pretty big blows for Poland so I can see why some are favouring Serbia but the odds still don’t respect the overall balance of both sides, in my opinion. I’d be interested in Serbia at evens but whilst they’re so short on a muddy pitch with strong fan pressure on them, I can only find value in laying Serbia at 10/11.
Verdict: Lay Serbia at 10/11.
Accumulator fodder:
Fluminense, Lyngby, AB Copenhagen, Albania, Honduras, Brazil, FK Ventspils, Liepajas Metalurgs.
Recommended bets:
Albania -1.75, Honduras, and Brazil at 3/1.
Lyngby, AB Copenhagen, FK Ventspils, and Liepajas Metalurgs at 3/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Brazilian Serie A:
Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo (5) 1-1
Fluminense vs Vitoria (8) 2-0
Gremio Prudente vs Atletico Goianiense (5) over 2.5 goals
Ceara vs Avai (4) 0-0
Palmeiras vs Flamengo (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Goias vs Sao Paulo (5) 1-2
Cruzeiro vs Santos (6) over 2.5 goals
Colombian Primera A:
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs La Equidad Bogota (7) over 2.5 goals
Danish 1st Division:
Lyngby vs Skive (9)
AB Copenhagen vs Thisted (8)
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Independiente vs El Nacional Quito (6) 0-0
Macara Ambato vs Olmedo Riobamba (5) 2-1
International Friendlies:
Norway vs Ukraine (6) under 2.5 goals
Romania vs Republic of Macedonia (5) 2-1
Albania vs Andorra (9) -1.75 handicap
Belarus vs Sweden (6) 1-0, draw no bet
Zimbabwe vs Brazil (9) over 3.5 goals
Greece vs Paraguay (6) 0-0 (played in Switzerland)
Azerbaijan vs Honduras (7) 0-2 (played in Austria)
Poland vs Serbia (5) 0-0 (played in Austria)
Italian Serie B Play-Offs:
Torino vs Sassuolo (6)
Cittadella vs Brescia (5)
Latvian Virsliga:
FK Jurmala vs FK Ventspils (8) 0-2
Skonto Riga vs Daugava Daugavpils (7) 2-1
RFS/Olimps Riga vs Liepajas Metalurgs (9) 1-3
Singaporean S-League:
Albirex Niigata vs Balestier Khalsa (6) 0-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!