Albania vs Portugal
FreeThis match in Tirana is key to Portugal’s hopes of qualifying for the World Cup. Ignoring the pedantic mathematics side of it, for a realistic chance, Portugal must win this game. The problem is that under Carlos Queiroz, they’re sadly inept. They look frail, ageing, weak in defense and their weakest area of all – attack – looks more feeble than it’s ever been. Indeed, their only salvation comes from moments of brilliance from Cristiano Ronaldo, who frankly carries this nation at times of late. Other plays chip in with brilliance as one position Portugal are not short of players is midfield with class in each position. However, they’re just not clicking under Queiroz and I honestly suspect that if he does not win this game, he will be fired. In terms of qualifiers, Portugal lost at home to a woeful Denmark, drew at home to 10-men Albania, drew at home to Sweden, draw away to Sweden (and they should have lost here!) and won at Malta. This is hardly the resumé of a successful manager/team. Let’s top that all off by pointing out that they’ve only scored 6 goals in 5 games. Despite all of the above, I can’t help but wonder how many idiots will back Portugal because they don’t know any beach resorts in Albania! More fool them, as you know, because you’re reading the words of a master in this field ;) Moving onto the hosts, however – they’re a tenacious bunch, they always have been, particularly at home. Not only that, but they’ve been steadily getting better these past few years with more players playing in big leagues outside Albania than ever before. Their strikeforce of Bogdani and Salihi play in Serie A and the Austrian Bundesliga respectively. Talismanic holding midfielder Lorik Cana plays for Olympique de Marseille. Skela and Lala, who also play in midfield, both play in Germany for Energie Cottbus and Hannover 96 respectively. So please don’t underestimate this squad – they really do know what they’re at. Hungary won here but were fortunate to do so. They’re very compact and don’t like conceding, which makes it even worse for Portugal. The trouble is that neither side scores many goals, if indeed any. For that reason, I think we’ll have a 0-0 stalemate or perhaps a real shocker with Albania winning 1-0. I’d certainly give it some thought with draw no bet.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
I gotta tell you, guys and girls, there looks to be a lot of value floating around today!
Bets with good value:
Lithuania vs Romania – home win with draw no bet at 6/5. The hosts have taken a large step up in quality and efficiency under manager Jose Couceiro (who you might remember led FBK Kaunas to a lot of praise in European football last season due to their relatively heroic displays) and have made their homeland something of a fortress. They lost two games to France lately, neither of which they should have lost based upon their performance. Romania enter this game with a new manager having encountered some dubious results along the way with none-so-convincing displays. They also miss Chivu according to widespread rumour, who is an essential player for Romania in any fixture. I’d stay away from under/over bets also!
Azerbaijan vs Wales. The visitors’ squad is thin on the ground when they have a first team to select, let alone when they’ve had 4 players withdraw through injury – Collison, Bale, Evans and Ricketts. They’re calling inexperienced players who haven’t been playing football since the start of May. They’re looking extremely weak on the ground against a side they really struggled to beat in Wales, let alone on their own turf. The Azeris are a tough side at home and they will want this win. Neither side can realistically qualify for the World Cup but I fancy a home win at 23/10 in this game – definitely stay under 2.5 goals too (odds – 4/7).
Albania vs Portugal – see introductory description for full details
Uruguay vs Brazil – Uruguay + 1 at 1/2. The odds aren’t spectacular, but are worthwhile, in my view. The visitors have been poor in this entire campaign. Forget about their win last match – you’ve got a brilliant bunch of individuals combining to make an average side as they travel to a dogged Uruguay who are more than capable of beating anyone on their continent on their day. They can be somewhat haphazard themselves however, so use caution. I like the look of over 2.5 goals at 8/11 also.
Bolivia vs Venezuela – home win at 4/9. Buoyed from their massacre against Argentina, Bolivia enter the clash between arguably the two worst sides in South American International football with confidence that they can win. La Paz is a horrible place to go and play football without the proper preperation, and even then it’s a nightmare. The Venezuelans possess little that should trouble the hosts; Juan Arango is the only name that springs to mind. The hosts will be looking for Marcelo Moreno to do the business as far as goalscoring is concerned, something he’s not quite grown accustomed to in his first season at UEFA Cup holders Shakhtar Donetsk. I really fancy a home win here, however, perhaps more than I should. I even fancy a punt on the -1 handicap at 6/5 too!
Paraguay vs Chile – home win at 4/6 is easily the bargain of the day. I can’t put it any more simply than that Paraguay will beat Chile. In my opinion, Paraguay are currently the second best side in South America, just behind Argentina and in front of Brazil. The Paraguayans boast an ability that has always mystified the two giants of South American football – the ability to hold a lead as well as playing with flair and scoring goals. There’s a wealth of talent for the hosts and they entertain a Chile side that is in transition, awaiting the talented youngsters of the future like Alexis Sanchez to show their full potential. I don’t see it today, however, but a small punt on -1 for Paraguay at 15/8 looks rather juicy!
USA vs Honduras – home win at 8/15. USA were outplayed and out-thought by Costa Rica last match and they won’t have enjoyed that one iota. USA are the best side in North American International football, however, and I’m somewhat astounded that the bookies have given us 8/15 on them to win this game. Honduras have got a handful of talented players – Palacios, Figueroa, Pavon – but they shouldn’t be able to match USA on the day. Potential bargain price here!
Uzbekistan vs Japan – home win at draw no bet. The hosts are certainly not pushovers as they have shown over the past two years. In fact, it’s a fair argument to say they’ve been one of the best sides in the World Cup Qualifiers in the Asian section. Their problem of late has been scoring goals, something their visitors today have had little problem doing lately. They’ve been playing some very good football and will be raring to go for this game. However, there’s something tenacious about the Uzbeks that might just hurt the Japanese. I’d be tempted to back a small wager on Uzbekistan +1 here.
Qatar vs Australia – away win at 4/6. There’s some serious value in this bet. Australia need to win to maintain their lead in their group and against a weak Qatar side, the Aussies should have little problem taking the initiative and progressing with their impressive recent form in this campaign.
United Arab Emirates vs South Korea – away win at 7/10. The visitors have got a little better than they used to be. That is to say they’ve improved after their downward spiral after Hiddink’s departure in 2002. The South Koreans will want to keep their World Cup hopes alive and either keep second place in the group or take first place. Not only will they want it for themselves, but they also know that a win here could cause serious problems for bitter rivals North Korea in their bid to get to their first World Cup in a long, long time.
Italy vs Northern Ireland – under 2.5 goals. Whereas I do think a home win is likely here, neither side likes scoring or conceding very much and not through choice, either! Italy have been virtually carried by the wonderful ability of Andrea Pirlo since their World Cup success and Northern Ireland have been weaker since the departure of successful managers and the dry run for lethal striker David Healy. This game has under 2.5 goals written all over it unless Northern Ireland give away too many set pieces, but taking under 2.5 goals at 10/11 looks a bargain.
Georgia vs Moldova – home win at evens. This game has had little attention from the betting world which is a shame, in my opinion, because I think there’s some good value here. Admittedly it’s a friendly but the hosts are considerably better than their visitors today and I expect it to show. Moldova’s greatest strength is stopping sides scoring but only one side in their last four games has managed to stop the Georgians from scoring at least one goal.
Estonia vs Equatorial Guinea – home win. Estonia’s mission to find a side worse than they are appears to have finally paid off as they entertain a very poor Equatorial Guinea. I don’t think the visitors will make it easy for the relatively clueless hosts, but I do think the Estonians have got more than enough to win this game. Set pieces will be key here and Estonia will be keen to perform for retiring Estonian legend Mart Poom, who will be between the sticks for the very last time for Estonia as they host Portugal next week in a World Cup Qualifying match. It will be his 120th cap and he retires to take up the post at Arsenal as goalkeeping coach.
There’s not a lot of value in accumulators/trebles in International football, as you’re probably already aware, so the above bets are all I’ll be recommending for the day on Internationals.
However, there are some crazy fucking leagues thare still in operation today, despite it being an International feast! I’m sure you’re all not aware that the Brazilian Serie A and Spanish Segunda Liga have at least one game apiece in operation today, so I’ll give you a treble to try your hand with if you want to stick with clubs – get your teeth into Corinthians (at home to very poor Coritiba and need to get a win), Hercules Alicante (away to rivals Alicante who are already relegated but Hercules Alicante have to win to have any hope of promotion), and Real Zaragoza (who travel to UD Salamanca in search of 3 points that would see them guaranteed a place in the Primera Liga next season). The odds for this bet should be approximately 4/1, which isn’t great, but it’s the best you’ll get today!
As ever, any queries/explanations required, feel free to email me at thefootytipster@gmail.com. For the complete picks listing, see below!
World Cup Qualifiers – European section:
Azerbaijan vs Wales (5) under 2.5 goals
Kazakhstan vs England (9) -1.75 handicap
Slovakia vs San Marino (10) -2.75 handicap
Republic of Macedonia vs Norway (6) 1-1
Finland vs Liechtenstein (8) 3-0
Belarus vs Andorra (9) -1.75 handicap
Bulgaria vs Republic of Ireland (7) under 2.5 goals
Sweden vs Denmark (8) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Lithuania vs Romania (6) 2-1
Croatia vs Ukraine (6) 1-1
Serbia vs Austria (8) 2-0
Cyprus vs Montenegro (4) 0-1
Iceland vs Netherlands (8) 0-2
Albania vs Portugal (5) 0-0
World Cup Qualifiers – South American section:
Uruguay vs Brazil (5) over 2.5 goals, +1 for Uruguay
Bolivia vs Venezuela (8) 3-0
Argentina vs Colombia (8) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Paraguay vs Chile (9) 3-1
World Cup Qualifiers – North American section:
El Salvador vs Mexico (7) 1-2
USA vs Honduras (9) 3-1
Trinidad & Tobago vs Costa Rica (6) 1-2
World Cup Qualifiers – African section:
Zambia vs Rwanda (7) 2-1
Malawi vs Burkina Faso (6) 1-1
Gabon vs Togo (7) 2-0
Tunisia vs Mozambique (8) 2-0
World Cup Qualifiers – Asian section:
North Korea vs Iran (5) 1-0
Uzbekistan vs Japan (5) 1-1
Qatar vs Australia (8) 1-2
United Arab Emirates vs South Korea (8) 1-2
European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Lithuania U21 vs Greece U21 (6) 0-1
Latvia U21 vs Andorra U21 (9) 2-0
Faroe Islands U21 vs Romania U21 (8) 0-3
Hungary U21 vs Luxembourg U21 (9) 3-0
International Friendlies:
Finland U21 vs Belarus U21 (7) 2-1
South Africa vs Poland (5) 1-1
Namibia vs Democratic Republic of Congo (6) 1-1
Botswana vs New Zealand (7) 1-1
Georgia vs Moldova (8) 2-0
Estonia vs Equatorial Guinea (7) 2-0
Italy vs Northern Ireland (7) under 2.5 goals, Pirlo to score at any time
Brazilian Serie A:
Corinthians vs Coritiba (8) 2-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alaves (7)
Alicante vs Hercules Alicante (8)
Albacete Balompie vs Real Murcia (6)
UD Salamanca vs Real Zaragoza (8)
Cordoba vs Las Palmas (6)
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Real Sociedad (6)
Gimnastic de Tarragona vs Castellon (7)
Enjoy your free betting tips!