Alki vs A.E.Paphos
FreeToday’s featured game is the Cypriot Division 1 encounter between Alki and A.E.Paphos. Both sides have struggled in the campaign thus far but both have improved lately in a bid to push away from the relegation zone over the Christmas period so we should hopefully see a decent game here.
This game is being played in Larnaca, which you may think would suit Alki. However, Alki possess a strange record in this division in that they’re the only side in the division yet to win a home game despite attempting to seven times. The reason they’ve not won those games is because they don’t score goals; they’re the second-lowest goalscoring side in the division at home and that has led them to four defeats and three draws in seven home games, which is relegation form if ever I saw it. I say “at home” – Alki don’t have “home” games this season as all their home games are being played at Anorthosis Famagusta’s ground Antonis Papadopoulos, which perhaps explains their paltry home record. Alki aren’t a well-supported side, either, which doesn’t help matters when they’re playing in a stadium that has a far bigger capacity than the number of fans that they possess worldwide, let alone in Cyprus. However, don’t let that lead you to underestimate Alki; they’re a feisty side and nobody has an easy game against them, as their more illustrious local rivals Anorthosis Famagusta discovered via a 1-2 defeat last match. Alki are very well-organised, as indeed are the majority of Larnaca sides – must be something in the air around there!
Alki are in good form at the moment so you could be forgiven for thinking that backing them to win this game makes sense. They’ve won three consecutive games in all competitions, bagging eight goals and keeping two clean sheets along the way, not to mention beating “big brothers” Anorthosis Famagusta. All of the above makes for some very happy Alki players so they will be a handful here. However, where on earth do the bookies get 4/5 on a home win from? This side are yet to win at home this season and they aren’t allowed to play their home games at their stadium so that price looks far too short to me. I don’t think they’re aware of Alki’s absences for this game, either – they’re missing eight players for this game, in total, which is a lot for a decent squad with depth, let alone an Alki side with few players at their disposal. Alki’s most notable absentees are Quadros and Blanco in defence, Kaiafas and Krassas in midfield, and Bashov in attack. I wouldn’t classify the missing players to be as important as say Serjao or Edmar are to the squad but when there’s five important players missing, the unity of the squad is lessened and cracks are easier to exploit. Alki therefore lose some of their defensive organisation and given that they’ve not scored for three consecutive Division 1 “home” games, I find the chances of them winning this game considerably less likely than the bookies do, it seems.
A.E.Paphos aren’t a particularly good side themselves, in all honesty. They’re the polar opposite of hosts Alki in that they live in the past, back in the times when they could attack and score goals freely, which would frighten sides. Indeed, that tactic got them promoted into this division a few years ago. This side isn’t the same as it used to be, obviously – they’ve lost some players since then. However, they still like to attack and score goals, hence them scoring in eleven out of their fourteen Division 1 games this season despite currently being bottom of the table. Indeed, the only away game that they’ve failed to score in was the trip to a superior Apollon Limassol side so they do deserve some respect here. They’re in a decent vein of form too with three wins in their past five games in all competitions. Indeed, one of those wins was against an in-form and able AEK Larnaca so this side aren’t to be taken lightly today. They boast a dangerous attack too with pacey Ats Purje lending his support to Ivanov and Marques up front so I have no doubts over their offensive potential. Their defence needs a bit of work but A.E.Paphos are only fortune away from a mid-table place so I’ll give them their dues in this game. Let’s face it – the only sides to have lost less away games than they have in this division are in the top five in the table so they are capable of playing good football on their day.
A.E.Paphos have already got a good result at this stadium this season, drawing 1-1 with Anorthosis Famagusta here last month. I quite fancy them to get another result here again today, too. Their hosts are missing too many first-team players for this game and aren’t dangerous enough in attack on a consistent basis to punish sides. I do think A.E.Paphos are suicidal enough defensively to concede here but this side scores a lot of goals and I expect them to score here, especially with Alki missing defenders. My problem with backing Alki here is not only that they’re priced far too short for the reasons mentioned above but also because I don’t think they have the ability to outscore their opponents in this game. Therefore, when all’s said and done, the only value I can find in this game is to lay the hosts at 21/20, which are surprisingly good odds on the selection with the above in mind!
Team news – Alki miss Blanco, Brenner, Constantinou, Markou, Kaiafas, Bashov, Quadros, and Krassas.
Verdict: Lay Alki at 21/20.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Vitoria Setubal vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa – over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Vitoria Setubal are just outside of the relegation zone in the Liga Sagres currently. It’s a sad sight, to be honest, for a big club like them to be suffering the way that they are. However, they do look forward to locking horns with one of Portugal’s elite and Sporting Clube de Lisboa are certainly one of them. Setubal are in their current position because they don’t score enough goals, unfortunately. Their defending is usually pretty damn good, in all honesty, especially at home. Few sides boast a better defensive record than Setubal with tonight’s hosts averaging conceding less than a goal per home game over six Liga Sagres games. It took Setubal some time to get their campaign going but they’re starting to show signs of a revival with six goals scored over their past four Liga Sagres home games, even beating old “Vitoria” rivals Vitoria Guimaraes so there is confidence in the Setubal camp ahead of this game. Indeed, their last game was nine days ago in the Taca de Portugal and amusingly involved them overcoming Sporting Clube de Lisboa 2-1 in this exact fixture so Vitoria will be even more determined to get another one over on Sporting in the league. They’ve been a bit unlucky lately too, in all honesty – they missed a last-minute penalty at Porto and ended up losing 1-0 as a result, despite matching their more illustrious hosts throughout that game and only conceding due to a dubious penalty. Well, I say “dubious” – what I actually mean is that it blatantly wasn’t a penalty, although that didn’t concern me at the time as I had Porto to win in a bet of my own but the less said of that the better! All in all, Setubal are not to be underestimated here at the Estadio do Bonfim and Sporting ought to know it by now; they’ve lost twice during their last four visits!
Sporting Clube de Lisboa welcome back Tales and Liedson after their trip to Bulgaria last week, which benefits their attack considerably today, especially given that both Fernandez and Mendes miss out from central midfield and Postiga is suspended in attack for this game. However, the problem I have had with Sporting for years is that they lack a natural goalscorer. With Porto you can look at Falcao or Lopez over the past few year. With Benfica you can look at Saviola, Cardozo, or even Gomes over the past few years. Sporting, though – they don’t have anyone. They’ve attempted to rectify that this year by bringing in Postiga and it’s partially worked but the problem is still there, especially as Liedson isn’t as good as he once was. I think it speaks volumes for Sporting that midfielder Valdes is their leading goalscorer this season with just four goals and also that their midfield has scored more goals in total than their attack has. Sporting have a prestigious history when it comes to producing excellent midfielders – Quaresma, Moutinho, Simao, Ronaldo, Figo, Nani etc. – so Sporting tend to rely rather heavily upon their midfield. However, credit must be given where it’s due and Sporting have started to attack a lot more this season away from home and have actually scored more away goals than any other side in the Liga Sagres currently so I’ll give them their dues here. A lot of people rating Sporting rather highly due to their prestigious past but as much as I’m a fan of Sporting, it takes much more than that for me to blindly back a side to win and frankly, the odds are generally rather short on a Sporting win when you consider the difficulties that they actually have in attack. We’ll have to see how they cope without Postiga for this game and see how it impacts them to have a better idea of how reliant they’ve become since his signing but one thing is for sure; Sporting have lost back-to-back games now and need a win, especially against a side that beat them just nine days ago. We should see a very determined Sporting side here and if they show up and take their chances then they stand a very good chance of winning this game.
However, I just don’t have enough faith in Sporting to back them in the 1×2 market, especially given how much this game means to their hosts so I won’t enter that market here. I do expect a spirited game between these two old hands, however, so goals should be on the agenda. Setubal are playing much better of late and Sporting aren’t the most reliable of sides defensively – Setubal could upset the odds and win this game, in all honesty. Sporting will be desperate to avoid three defeats in a row, however, and will work hard here to prevent that. The old “rivalry” of sorts between these two clubs has yielded an over 2.5 goals scoreline in three out of their last four meetings so I don’t see why it can’t occur again tonight, especially with the afore-mentioned motivation in mind, and the odds are good enough to take a chance on here.
Team news – Sporting miss Postiga, Fernandez, and Pedro Mendes for this game.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Racing Santander vs Hercules Alicante – Racing Santander to keep a clean sheet at 6/5.
Only Real Madrid, Villarreal, and Real Mallorca have conceded less home goals than Racing Santander have in the Primera Liga this season, which is astounding on numerous levels. The most baffling of those levels is Racing’s overall lack of ability in their squad. I mean, let’s be frank here – they don’t have the likes of Garay anymore in defence – they’ve got Henrique and Torrejon as their defensive lynchpins but somehow it’s working for them. I can only respect Miguel Portugal here because he knows that his side will be relegated if they can’t defend due to their impotent attack but he’s set them up really well on that front and sides find it very hard to score against them currently. Indeed, they’ve only conceded in three home games out of seven this season, keeping three clean sheets in their last four home games, in fact. They kept a clean sheet in a 0-1 victory at Real Mallorca last match and with confidence high and their home support behind them, you have to fancy them to keep a clean sheet again, with or without their doubtful captain Pedro Munitis on the field.
Hercules Alicante boss Esteban Vigo has recently said “2010 was undoubtedly the best year of my coaching career after winning promotion to the Primera Liga and with Hercules having given me the opportunity to manage in top-flight football”. I can understand his optimism and even respect it but he has to be realistic here – his side cannot score goals on a consistent basis and face a very good chance of not being in the Primera Liga next season because of it. No side in the Primera Liga has scored less than Hercules have on the road this season with a meager three goals scored in seven away games, and two of those were in their infamous win at Barcelona! Indeed, the only side apart from Barcelona that they’ve scored against away from home is a poor Almeria side in a 1-1 draw so you can see the level that Hercules are genuinely at. Worryingly, they’ve been totally overrun in the majority of their away games, including trips to goal-shy Osasuna and Espanyol, so I really don’t have any faith in Hercules away from home. Indeed, I don’t see how it can change tonight either. Racing are far from immortal but Trezeguet cuts an awfully lonely figure away from home as let’s face it – he’s not as quick as he may once have been with the years catching up to him. Therefore, he needs service or a strike partner and Hercules are short in midfield on service and his usual strike partner Haedo-Valdez misses this game. Not only that but Hercules also miss Drenthe and Gomes in midfield so support for Trezeguet will be short at best and I don’t see them shattering Racing’s defence without a penalty here, to be blunt!
Therefore, my call is for Racing to keep a clean sheet here at extremely generous odds of 6/5. I’d take the home win but I have no faith in Racing’s attack, especially with Munitis doubtful. Even Hercules’ woeful away form and two missing defenders won’t persuade me to back the home win here so instead I’ll opt for the hopefully safer choice of backing Hercules not to score at 6/5.
Team news – Racing miss Tziolis, Arana, Bolado, and Coltori whilst having doubts over captain Munitis whereas Hercules miss Drenthe, Haedo-Valdez, Paz, Pamarot, Farinos, Gomes, and Thomert.
Verdict: Racing Santander to keep a clean sheet at 6/5.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Cypriot Division 1:
Alki vs A.E.Paphos (5) 1-1
English Premier League:
Manchester City vs Everton (4) under 2.5 goals
French Ligue 2:
Le Havre vs Nantes (6) under 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga 2:
Union Berlin vs Karlsruher SC (6)
Italian Serie B:
Albinoleffe vs Piacenza (6)
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Vitoria Setubal vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa (5) over 2.5 goals
Spanish Primera Liga:
Racing Santander vs Hercules Alicante (6) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!