Ancona vs Reggina
FreeToday’s featured game is the Serie B game between Ancona and Reggina. It’s been some time since I backed Ancona because they’ve struggled of late but I think the time is right to back Ancona to win at their fortress again. Reggina are a far more capable league side than their league placing suggests but the form charts don’t lie; Reggina will be lucky to stay in Serie B this season.
Ancona have won more home games in Serie B than any other side; fact. They’re the only side – along with Empoli – to have remained unbeaten at home this season. Ancona have won eleven home games in fifteen so their home record is phenomenal. They average scoring nearly two goals per home game and also boast one of the best defensive records in the division with only Empoli and Cesena having conceded less goals at home than they have. Ancona have won three out of their last four home games and have scored at least two goals in each game so any side with a vague chance of taking something off Ancona needs to score at least two goals at the present time and not many sides can do that, frankly.
Reggina have lost five out of their last six away games, taking their tally to nine defeats in fifteen away games this season. They concede approximately 1.5 goals per away game and only Cesena, Empoli, and Mantova have scored less away goals than Reggina have this season so Reggina look pretty poor on the road. Reggina are without a win in three games and have lost their last two consecutively so their morale is in on the way down. Although I do rate Reggina, the way they’re playing at the moment suggests that points being taken against anyone is a long shot, let alone taking points from one of the most difficult away games in Serie B so it looks likely that Reggina will struggle tonight.
Ancona are dynamite at home and have been particularly potent of late, which is worrying for their opponents. They’re not vastly better than Reggina but they’ve got far more momentum and potency behind them so they should make the home win good value tonight.
Verdict: Ancona to win at 10/11.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Libertad Asuncion vs Universitario Lima – lay Libertad Asuncion at 11/10.
This should be a very interesting game tonight. Neither of these two sides have conceded a goal in the group stages of the Copa Libertadores and the scoreline ended 0-0 when they met in Peru a month ago. Now the return leg in Paraguay looks even more like a draw with Libertad Asuncion bearing the remarkable record of having not scored a goal in any of their last four games in all competitions. They have the home advantage for this game but they’ve only faced Blooming Santa Cruz of Bolivia here this season so the win was somewhat unavoidable. Libertad have their first real test at home against an experienced Universitario Lima so have a tough game. Universitario have done ok since their last meeting with Libertad but their most notable feature is the fact that they’ve scored in each game – four times in three games, in fact, irrespective of who they’re playing and where they’re playing them. I’d personally rate Universitario as being marginally better than Libertad but they’re two good sides so can generally cancel each other out. There’s a little geographical adjustment to be done by Universitario for this game but not an excessive amount. We should see an even game between two good sides but ultimately why you can lay a side that hasn’t scored a goal in four games at 11/10 is beyond me, particularly when there’s so little between them!
Verdict: Lay Libertad Asuncion at 11/10.
Al Ain vs Al Shabab – away win at evens.
I can’t substantiate this game anywhere near as much as I’d like so I’ll be brief. Al Ain are a poor side and haven’t even scored a goal in this competition so far. They’ve not played in this competition for three years and it’s showing. Al Shabab, however, are experienced campaigners in this competition and have illustrated not only that experience but their hunger and desire by even winning in Uzbekistan against a good Pakhtakor Tashkent. Al Shabab have far more ability and knowledge in this competition than their lesser hosts and frankly odds of evens on the away win look good to me with this in mind.
Verdict: Al Shabab to win at evens.
Austria Vienna II vs Admira Wacker – lay Admira Wacker at 10/11.
Austria Vienna II are battling against relegation from the Liga 1 but they’re battling well. They’ve only lost four out of ten home games this season and are unbeaten in their four games since returning from the winter break, a run of games that has seen them even lay waste to St.Polten. Austria Vienna are looking a lot more solid, dependable, and composed in the latter stages of this campaign and I wouldn’t bet against them currently with this in mind.
Admira Wacker have won more away games than anyone else in this division – fact. Their phenomenal defensive record is largely responsible for this as they’ve only conceded three times on the road all season long. However, Admira Wacker have become somewhat unfocused since returning from the winter break. They’ve only won one game out of four in all competitions and that 1-0 win at lowly Gratkorn a couple of games ago was the only time that they’ve scored during those four games. Yes, that’s right – high-flying Admira Wacker, competing for promotion, the inpregnable side cannot score goals for shit at the moment! In my experience, a side not scoring goals is a side that doesn’t win games irrespective of how good they are or can be so the visitors are going to struggle tonight!
Now, I’m not making any cases for Austria Vienna II to be the next biggest thing in Austrian football because they blatantly won’t be. However, they’re playing well as a unit, they’re not losing games, and they are scoring goals. It’ll be difficult for Austria Vienna II to score tonight despite their potency due to the astute defence of Admira Wacker but should they do so then I just can’t see the away win occurring. Momentum, motivation, and morale are the keys for Austria Vienna II tonight and I think they’ve got more in their favour than their impotent visitors so the bookies pricing the away win at 8/11 is somewhat laughable, in my opinion!
Verdict: Lay Admira Wacker at 10/11.
West Ham United vs Wolverhampton Wanderers – lay West Ham United at evens.
This is a bold call as I do rate West Ham United but they’re just not doing the business at the moment. They’ve lost four games consecutively and have only scored twice along the way whilst conceding eleven times. This record isn’t good enough and if it weren’t for diabolical Hull City and Burnley below them then they’d be struggling to stay in the division this year. As it happens, I expect them to be fine but they’re still not playing well. They’ve won just five out of fourteen home games this season and don’t look likely to improve that record tonight. West Ham faced a trip to Wolves on the opening day of this season and although The Hammers won the game, their performance was unconvincing and a draw was certainly merited. Not much has changed since then so I expect another tight game between two relegation-battling sides tonight.
Wolves have been playing exceptionally well in recent times. They were desperately unlucky to not take anything from their games against Chelsea and Manchester United respectively due to their tremendous tenacity and stamina. All Wolves are lacking is goalscoring and that’s all they’ve been lacking for the majority of the season. However, times have changed now and Wolves are starting to find the net, which has burst the dam and increased their confidence, which now means that the goals are pouring in. Wolves have scored four in two games including two goals on a tough trip to local rivals Aston Villa last match in a very impressive 2-2 draw so Wolves are brimming with confidence and momentum currently.
Wolves have only lost eight out of fifteen away games this season, which is pretty damn good considering that they’ve only just come up from the Championship and haven’t spent lavishly on new players. They’ve got a good team spirit, a good experienced manager, they battle hard, and have scored four goals in their last two away games. With West Ham not firing on all cylinders, low on confidence due to consecutive defeats, and a bit uneasy due to reported backroom issues between Zola and the new owners, laying West Ham tonight could very well be one of the bets of the night, in my opinion.
Verdict: Lay West Ham United at evens.
Scunthorpe United vs Peterborough United – home win at evens.
A hard-fought win last match for Scunthorpe United against fellow relegation-battlers Plymouth Argyle gave Scunthorpe a much-needed victory to boost morale and give them something to take into yet another key game. Scunthorpe are in their current predicament because they can’t defend for shit but their goalscoring is actually quite good at home. They’ve won eight out of eighteen home games this season, a record which only eight teams can better, seven of which are in the top ten of the Championship, so it’s fair to say that Scunthorpe are reliable at home. They tend to do well against sides around them at home as sides around them don’t score many on the road so Scunthorpe’s leaky defence isn’t often exposed whereas their goalscoring potential runs riot. Scunthorpe are unbeaten in their last four home games, winning twice and drawing twice. They’ve scored seven goals during those four games so they will almost certainly score at least one tonight and should really outscore their opponents.
Peterborough United are a decent, well-organised side but they’re horrendous on the road and they simply do not score goals away from home, which is suicidal against a side like Scunthorpe. Peterborough have notched up just ten goals in nineteen away games this season – nearly one goal per every two away games – but have conceded thirty. They’ve lost fourteen out of nineteen away games and their goal-shy displays should surely mean that they lose against a potent Scunthorpe today too, particularly as Peterborough have lost seven out of their last eight away games.
There’s not much difference betwen these two sides. Both sides need the points but I can only see a side winning that scores goals and Scunthorpe are the only one of these two sides that scores goals so the home win looks logical and valuable, particularly with Scunthorpe playing consistently well at home.
Verdict: Scunthorpe United to win at evens.
Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County – home win at 5/6.
QPR are without a win in their last three games but consider that two were away against good sides and one was at home to a Swansea City side that defend like no other so I won’t be judgmental of the new look QPR. Warnock has got them playing some good football although they’ll need some months together before he works his full magic. QPR are frankly a better side than Derby County and have already won seven out of eighteen home games this season. It’d have been more had QPR defended better as QPR scoren nearly two goals per home game on average. However, QPR now have a manager which can enforce those changes and we’re already seeing the benefits with QPR tightening up at the back and not conceding many goals at all. What I like about this QPR side is that they always look capable of scoring goals which is naturally a very useful asset indeed for any side.
Visitors Derby County are a funny side that can turn up sporadically and cause an upset but generally are atrocious on the road. Only Scunthorpe, Peterborough, and Plymouth have lost more away games than they have in the Championship this season with Derby losing eleven out of nineteen away games. Derby have only scored thirteen goals in nineteen away games, hence their problem. They concede approximately 1.5 goals per away game so that’s not a great record but their goal-shy displays tend to ensure that they fail to take anything from their away games. Derby have lost three out of their last four away games somewhat emphatically with their only relief on this run coming in a mind-numbingly boring 0-0 draw at out-of-form Sheffield Wednesday last match in which all the players should have probably been shot for causing such pain to watching fans.
Either way, QPR are on a new lease of life and look composed and capable under Warnock. They’ve got some good players and really should score at least once so should cause goal-shy and out-of-form Derby a lot of problems tonight.
Verdict: Queens Park Rangers to win at 5/6.
Bradford City vs Notts County – away win at 13/10.
Bradford City have one massive flaw and it’s goalscoring. Only bottom club Darlington have scored less goals at home than the Yorkshire-based outfit with an average of just over a goal scored per home game. Needless to say that this record will not give them a win at home more often than not! To their credit, Bradford don’t concede many goals at home either but generally a good side will run riot here as Bradford cannot score goals! Bradford have only won twice in their last ten home games and lots of good sides have won here – Bury, Rotherham, Rochdale, Shrewsbury etc. The only sides that Bradford take points off are average sides and Notts County, unfortunately for Bradford, are one of the good sides.
Notts County are unbeaten in eight games, winning four out of their last five games. They’ve only conceded in one of those games after letting a lead slip twice agt home to Bournemouth in a 2-2 draw. They’ve won at Accrington Stanley and Crewe Alexandra during that time without conceding a goal so their away form looks good and their defence solid so it’s hard to see goal-shy Bradford doing damage to that defence tonight. Notts County have already won eight out of seventeen away games this season and boast the best defence in the league as well as scoring nearly two goals per away game so Notts County should really win this rather comfortably.
Ultimately, Bradford aren’t good enough to take anything off Notts County tonight. This result hinges entirely on how Notts County play. If they play well and score at least one goal then this game should be over with as I cannot see Bradford scoring. Either way, there’s good value in the away win for an in-form and superior Notts County tonight.
Verdict: Notts County to win at 13/10.
Accumulator fodder:
Estudiantes De La Plata, Gamba Osaka, Rapid Vienna, Gratkorn, SCR Altach, Austria Lustenau, Lokomotiv Plovdiv, Southampton, Levadia Tallinn, Flora Tallinn, Nomme Kalju, Sillamae Kalev, Trans Narva, Newtown, Llanelli.
Recommended bets:
Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma, Gamba Osaka, and Al Shabab at 4/1.
Rapid Vienna, Gratkorn, SCR Altach, and Austria Lustenau at 4/1.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv, Southampton, Ancona, and Sevilla CF at 5/1.
Levadia Tallinn, Flora Tallinn, Trans Narva, Sillamae Kalev, and Nomme Kalju at 3/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Copa Libertadores:
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Bolivar La Paz (10) -1.75 handicap
Libertad Asuncion vs Universitario Lima (5) 0-0
Asian Champions League:
Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma vs Beijing Guoan (7) 2-1
Kawasaki Frontale vs Melbourne Victory (5) 1-0
Armed Forces vs Gamba Osaka (8) 0-2
Pakhtakor Tashkent vs Sepahan (6) under 2.5 goals
Henan Jianye vs Suwon Bluewings (5) 1-2
Esteghlal vs Al Gharafa (6) 0-0
Al Ain vs Al Shabab (7) 0-1
Al Ahli vs Al Jazira (6) over 2.5 goals
Austrian Bundesliga:
Rapid Vienna vs SV Mattersburg (8) 2-1
Austrian Liga 1:
Austria Vienna II vs Admira Wacker (5)
St.Polten vs Lustenau (6) under 2.5 goals
Gratkorn vs Dornbirn (7)
Wacker Innsbruck vs First Vienna (6) over 2.5 goals
SCR Altach vs Salzburg II (8)
Austria Lustenau vs Hartberg (8)
Bulgarian A PFG:
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Sportist Svoge (9) -1.75 handicap
English Premier League:
West Ham United vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (5) 1-1
English Championship:
Blackpool vs Swansea City (5)
Bristol City vs Barnsley (6)
Doncaster Rovers vs Newcastle United (6)
Ipswich Town vs Plymouth Argyle (7) under 2.5 goals
Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace (4) under 2.5 goals
Scunthorpe United vs Peterborough United (6) over 2.5 goals
Middlesbrough vs Preston North End (6) over 2.5 goals
Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County (7)
English League One:
Southend United vs Walsall (5)
Southampton vs Hartlepool United (8)
Colchester United vs Brentford (4)
English League Two:
Bradford City vs Notts County (7)
Darlington vs Aldershot Town (5)
Rotherham United vs Macclesfield Town (7)
Accrington Stanley vs Burton Albion (6) over 3.5 goals
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Levadia Tallinn vs Flora Paide (9) -1.75 handicap
Maag Tammeka Tartu vs Sillamae Kalev (8) 1-2
Viljandi Tulevik vs Flora Tallinn (8) over 2.5 goals
Kuressaare vs Nomme Kalju (8) 0-2
Trans Narva vs Lootus (9) -1.75 handicap
Finnish Liiga Cup:
FC Lahti vs HJK Helsinki (7) 1-2
French Ligue 2:
Clermont Foot vs AC Ajaccio (6)
Italian Serie B:
Sassuolo vs Albinoleffe (6) over 2.5 goals
Torino vs Ascoli (6)
Brescia vs Cesena (7) under 2.5 goals
Piacenza vs Cittadella (5)
Vicenza vs Crotone (4)
Padova vs Grosseto (6)
Salernitana vs Lecce (6)
Empoli vs Mantova (5)
Frosinone vs Modena (4)
Ancona vs Reggina (7)
Gallipoli vs Triestina (6)
Scottish Premier League:
St.Johnstone vs Falkirk (6) 2-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Sporting Gijon vs Deportivo La Coruna (5) 1-1
Sevilla CF vs Deportivo Xerez (8) 2-0
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Malmo vs Orebro (7) under 2.5 goals
Welsh Premier League:
Newtown vs Porthmadog (7) over 2.5 goals
Welshpool Town vs Caersws (6) 2-1
Connah’s Quay Nomads vs Llanelli (9) -1.75 handicap
Carmarthen Town vs Bala Town (6) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!