Armenia vs Slovakia
FreeFirst of all, let me reiterate my dislike of International fixtures. I view International games in the same light as I do UEFA Europa League games – either approach with severe caution or back off and leave well alone!
If that’s not put you off, then consider today’s game, which is the European Championship Qualifier in Yerevan between Armenia and Slovakia. Armenia have been getting better and better this year, especially at home, and I personally consider it very foolish indeed to view this side as minnows anymore.
Armenia’s home record on paper may not blow you away with three defeats and two wins from their last five games but consider that they’ve lost 1-2 to world champions Spain, beaten Belgium 2-1, and outplayed the Republic of Ireland but were incredibly unlucky to lose the game and the record suddenly doesn’t look as bad. How they didn’t take anything from the game at home to Ireland is beyond me but Armenia compensated by claiming a rare away point at a tricky Republic of Macedonia side in a thrilling 2-2 draw. The fact is that Armenia are rapidly improving as a footballing nation, especially in attack, and they really shouldn’t be underestimated here. The likes of Manucharyan of AFC Ajax Amsterdam and Mikhitaryan of Shakhtar Donetsk show how far this side has come over the past few years in terms of quality and although their defence isn’t as good as it could be, their attack is very potent indeed and should be approached with caution.
Slovakia’s coach Weiss is not a stupid manager, however. He’s very defensively-minded and will line Slovakia up defensively here if he has any sense! Slovakia are a good unit but they’re very predictable. Fuck their result in Russia – any person who read my preview here expected a possible upset because the two sides play the same style of football. Slovakia’s attack is simple – they use a pacey lone man or they’ll use a target man like Sebo to partner them. I’d be surprised to see anything but 4-5-1 here though, in all honesty, with someone like Vittek in attack on his own. To stop Slovakia, you need to defend astutely from set pieces and limit their creative players, which namely are Hamsik and Weiss. If Armenia do that, which they’re capable of, then the odds on Slovakia here a complete joke – they’re not a great attacking force. They’re a hard team to beat but they’re not great goalscorers as their last-ditch win at home to a poor-travelling Republic of Macedonia proved all too well in their last European Qualifier.
I’d not call this bet a dead cert at all but the odds on Slovakia winning the game are an utter joke. I would never bet heavily against them but they lack in attack and if Armenia take the lead here, which they’re more than capable of, then I really don’t see Slovakia getting a result here. I fancy the home side to sneak a win here but the odds on laying Slovakia look better value for me, although I can’t deny that both sides to score at 21/20 intrigues me too.
Verdict: Lay Slovakia at 6/5
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Andorra vs Republic of Macedonia – under 2.5 goals at 6/5.
How can I justify the strength of Andorra? I can’t, really. All I’ll say is watch them play; they’re advancing well. Not so much in quality but in organisation and physical nature. They’re a very hard side to play against nowadays because they’re physical and with Republic of Macedonia not a good travelling side, I don’t see this as the straightforward away win that the bookies so. Andorra are not the 10-0 losers they once were. There’s a possibility that Andorra could take a draw from this game, seriously – I won’t be backing Republic of Macedonia here, that’s for sure. I think they can edge it but there’s no value in those odds whatsoever. For me, the value is in taking under 2.5 goals between two low-scoring sides or possibly giving Andorra a +1.5 goal head start.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Greece vs Latvia – both sides to score at 27/20.
Greece are ageing and slow; Latvia are emerging and quick, basically. I actually have more concerns over Greece scoring here than Latvia, bizarrely! Greece are too predictable to play against, even under new management. Stop Ninis and Karagounis and you beat them, basically – or at least draw. Greece are good from set pieces but are not a naturally gifted attacking side. I expect Greece to make their height advantage count from set pieces but in their required attacking manner, they’re going to get caught by the likes of Rudnevs and Verpakovskis on the counter-attack and they’re simply too quick for a slow Greece defence. I wouldn’t touch the 1×2 market here but both sides scoring here is priced far too generously for me.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 27/20.
Accumulator fodder:
Hungary, Belarus, Netherlands, Slovenia, Spain, Mali, Ukraine, Uruguay, Guatemala, Estudiantes De La Plata.
Recommended bets:
A fun 5-team accumulator of Belarus, Hungary, Netherlands, Slovenia, and Spain at evens.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
European Championship Qualifiers:
Armenia vs Slovakia (6) 1-1
Kazakhstan vs Belgium (3) 1-2
Hungary vs San Marino (10) -2.5 handicap
Andorra vs Republic of Macedonia (6) under 2.5 goals
Georgia vs Malta (5) 2-1
Cyprus vs Norway (6) 1-0
Czech Republic vs Scotland (7) 2-0
Luxembourg vs Belarus (8) 0-2
Moldova vs Netherlands (8) 1-2
Albania vs Bosnia-Herzegovina (6) 2-2
Austria vs Azerbaijan (6) under 2.5 goals
Serbia vs Estonia (7) 2-0
Montenegro vs Switzerland (6) under 2.5 goals
Wales vs Bulgaria (5) 1-0
Germany vs Turkey (7) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Slovenia vs Faroe Islands (9) -1.5 handicap
Republic of Ireland vs Russia (5) 1-1
Greece vs Latvia (6) 2-1
Portugal vs Denmark (4) 2-2
Spain vs Lithuania (9) -1.5 handicap
African Nations Qualifiers:
Mali vs Liberia (9) -1.5 handicap
Zimbabwe vs Cape Verde Islands (7) 2-0
Togo vs Tunisia (6) under 2.5 goals
International Friendlies:
Qatar vs Iraq (6) 1-0
China vs Syria (7) 1-0
Oman vs Gabon (6) 1-1
India vs Vietnam (7) 0-2
Kuwait vs Bahrain (6) 0-0
Japan vs Argentina (7) 1-2
Indonesia vs Uruguay (8) 0-2
Ukraine vs Canada (8) 2-0
Peru vs Costa Rica (6) 1-0
Guatemala vs Belize (8) 2-0
Ecuador vs Colombia (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Panama vs El Salvador (6) 1-1
Baltic League:
Tauras Taurage vs Skonto Riga (5) 1-2
Argentinian Primera Division:
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Olimpo (8) 2-0
Arsenal de Sarandi vs Banfield (6) 0-0
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Heart vs Melbourne Victory (5) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Colombian Primera A:
Deportes Tolima vs Envigado (7) over 2.5 goals
Finnish Ykkonen:
HJK II vs Jippo Joensuu (5)
Mexican Primera Division:
Necaxa vs Puebla (5) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!