Arminia Bielefeld vs Alemannia Aachen
FreeToday’s featured game is the Bundesliga 2 encounter between Arminia Bielefeld and Alemannia Aachen in Germany. Arminia Bielefeld are having a nightmare season and could find themselves relegated to Bundesliga 3 if things don’t rapidly improve whereas visitors Alemannia Aachen are perched quite comfortably mid-table so they won’t be unhappy with that.
Hosts Arminia Bielefeld are in deep shit, to be honest. Nothing more than a name nowadays, Arminia will soon be beyond a recognisable division, in my opinion – they just don’t have the quality anymore. Financial issues led to sales of defenders Mijatovic and Risgard, midfielders Federico, Halfar, and Kirch, as well as striker Katongo, just to name a few! It’s therefore no surprise that they’re utterly bereft of talent and that they tend to rely heavily on veteran Oliver Neuville in attack, who is hardly in his element at thirty-seven years of age.
Indeed, as if the above wasn’t already enough, we have to look at Arminia’s abysmal form of late. They’ve lost four consecutive games, conceding ten goals, and scoring just once along the way. I think some sides are bottom of their respective divisions through misfortune via one medium or another but Arminia Bielefeld are genuinely there because they’re not good enough to compete in the division they’re in, albeit due to misfortune, ironically. It’s just one problem area, though – the whole side is a problem! They’re the lowest-scoring side in the Bundesliga 2, averaging scoring less than a goal per game. They’re the highest-conceding side in the Bundesliga 2, averaging conceding nearly two goals per game. They’ve lost thirteen out of sixteen Bundesliga 2 games this season, which is a horrific record. They’ve lost six out of eight at home already this season and I just don’t see how things can improve for the demoralised and ineffectual hosts.
To really rub salt in the wound, consider that Arminia Bielefeld are missing eleven players for this game. Eleven players from a side that is bereft of talent and depth as it is! Included in that list is number one goalkeeper Eilhoff, important defenders Bollman and Fischer, and starting midfielders Bolster and Abelski so I think even a competent display for the hosts here is beyond them!
Alemannia Aachen welcome back holding midfielder Kevin Kratz for this game, which is a welcome bonus for a side that isn’t notorious for their defensive ability. Alemannia Aachen’s absentee list may be of similar length to their hosts’ but the vast majority of their missing players are not regulars. Indeed, only Uludag and the experienced Zdebel would be missed here so Alemannia aren’t far from being at full-strength here. In general, I’d personally say that mid-table is all that Alemannia are capable of nowadays. Let’s face it – the days of Jan Schlaudraff are behind them and the bottom line is that Alemannia’s defence is rather easily breached by a semi-decent attack and their attack doesn’t get them enough goals. Nonetheless, they’re a determined side and do still have that age-old ability to surprise sides, particularly away from home, so never underestimate this side. Although quite a number of sides may be able to match their losses on the road, it’s amusingly factual that nobody has lost less away games than Alemannia Aachen this season so they are capable away from home. They do bring some momentum into this game too, having won 1-2 at Rot-Weiss Oberhausen and having claimed a 0-0 draw at home to superior Fortuna Dusseldorf. The call of the away win does rely rather heavily on experienced striker Auer as his fellow strikers Gueye and Junglas don’t contribute much in the way of goals. Nonetheless, Auer is a capable striker at this level and should be able to score against their opponents today, who frankly aren’t good enough to be at this level anymore.
With Uludag missing for Alemannia, the visitors will look even more to Stieber and Hoger, who have already seen a fantastic return of four goals from sixteen games and five goals from sixteen games respectively despite playing most of their game in midfield. Their support is essential to Auer here and the possibility is there for them to support him too, especially with Kratz back to sit in front of the back four. Alemannia look in much better shape than Arminia with the above in mind and although Alemannia are still some distance from being a good side again, they should still win this game with considerable ease at generous odds of evens.
Team news – Arminia Bielefeld miss Abelski, Appiah, Bolstler, Delura, Fischer, Fort, Lense, Kauf, Hartmann, Eilhoff, and Bollman whereas Alemannia miss Krumpen, Stuckmann, Herzig, Olajengbesi, Muller, Zdebel, Daun, and Uludag.
Verdict: Alemannia Aachen to win at evens.
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Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Adelaide United vs Melbourne Heart – home win with -1.5 handicap at 31/20.
I think it’s a fair observation to say that Adelaide United are over-achieving this season but what else can you add to that? They’re consistently winning games and that’s what you need to do to win a title so fair play to them.
They’ve been particularly impressive at home with seven wins from eight A-League home games, averaging scoring two goals per home game and conceding a goal per every two home games on average. They’ve bagged seven goals in their past four games, winning three times and losing once along the way so momentum is good in the Adelaide camp currently. They overcame Melbourne Heart 3-2 earlier this season but Melbourne Heart were enjoying a “purple patch” at the time – needless to say that they’re no longer in that rich vein of form so should struggle here. Adelaide do miss Cornthwaite in defence but with Mullen standing by to cover for him, I can’t read too much into his absence. They also miss youngsters Leckie and Costa but only Leckie has featured this season for Adelaide and that’s been sporadically, although impressively, I should add. Adelaide’s partnership of towering Van Dijk and pacey Flores in attack is dynamite on their day and with virtually a full-strength squad available to them and momentum siding with them, I have to fancy the home win here.
Only Newcastle Jets have scored less goals than Melbourne Heart have in the A-League this season so it’s clear to see where their problems predominantly lie. The wealthy visitors may not be short of a few dollars but they are short of goals and that won’t be helped today with the absence of veteran Dutch striker Gerald Sibon due to injury. Given that only three sides have lost more away games than Melbourne Heart have this season (and two of those are in the relegation zone!), the problems that the Heart have are rapidly stacking up. Only bottom club Perth Glory have conceded more away goals than Melbourne Heart have too with today’s visitors averaging conceding nearly two goals per away game. In their current vein of form, it’s unlikely that the Heart are going to improve either, losing six out of their last seven games whilst drawing the other game. Worryingly, Melbourne Heart have only scored in two of those games whilst conceding fourteen so the alarm bells have to be ringing for the Heart today. Five out of their six defeats have involved them losing by two goals or more, including a 0-2 defeat against today’s opponents Adelaide United at home a few weeks ago, so all the signs are there that this bet can be a success.
Melbourne Heart welcome back ex-Wigan Athletic midfielder Josip Skoko from injury but that’s really the only ray of light that they have today. They still miss Terra in attack and with Sibon absent too, I don’t see how the visitors will score here. Adelaide have everything going for them and logic says that they should win this game with a great degree of simplicity. For me, there’s potentially tremendous value in the home win with a -1.5 handicap at 31/20.
Team news – Adelaide United miss Leckie, Costa, and Cornthwaite whilst Melbourne Heart miss Sibon, Terra, and Babalj.
Verdict: Adelaide United to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 31/20.
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Kortrijk vs Standard de Liege – home win with draw no bet at 21/20.
You have to hand it to Kortrijk – no other club in the Eerste Klasse has a better ratio of home wins to the number of games played than they do with seven wins from eight home games. Indeed, “hand it” may be the operative term too with their only defeat along the way coming courtesy of a very convenient handball in an undeserving win for Westerlo.
Of course, Kortrijk aren’t really good enough to sustain this record for the season, in my view. They’ll get a real test in the coming weeks with Lokeren, Anderlecht, and AA Gent all pencilled in for a visit to strong Kortrijk. However, our focus is for tonight’s game as they host Eerste Klasse giants Standard de Liege. Kortrijk don’t have a good head-to-head record against Standard in the Eerste Klasse. Indeed, they’ve lost every Eerste Klasse meeting with Standard since regaining promotion a few years ago so the omens are bleak on that front. However, Kortrijk are a nightmare side to play against away from home on their compact pitch with their physical approach and vociferous support. Standard may find it a little easier than most with defensive lynchpin Gershon missing for Kortrijk but Kortrijk are such a strong unit that they’re still hard to break down. Indeed, the likes of Rossini and Ilombe should give Standard enough to worry about at the other end of the field, especially with a strong and experienced midfield behind them with the likes of Belhocine, Oussalah, De Beule, and Carevic likely to be fielded although they may be without Pavlovic, who has returned from injury but may not be fit. Had Kortrijk still been in their fairly poor run of form lately then I may have ignored this game but an emphatic 3-1 win against relegation-threatened Lierse SK last week should see the hosts bubbling with confidence again and that makes them a very hard side to play against so I’ll give them their chances tonight.
It aids matters greatly in my eyes that Standard miss star striker Tchite for this game through injury because they’ve really struggled to score goals on a consistent basis without him, especially away from home. That’s a real hammer-blow for Standard because their defence is pretty inept, to be honest. Indeed, they’ve only beaten Germinal Beerschot in their last three away games with the predominant reasoning behind that win being poor hosts and a lack of a goal threat for the hosts. Standard have lost both away games since then, losing at Zulte-Waregem and Lokeren respectively, both in deserving fashion so I don’t have high hopes for Standard here. Indeed, as if it wasn’t bad enough already that Tchite was missing, Standard have also lost captain and starlet Steven Defour from midfield, who has suffered yet another long-term injury and will be out for approximately three months. That limits Standard’s attacking prowess considerably with Witsel holding the banner in midfield but only youngster Cyriac doing the business in attack. Therefore, a side that relies heavily on their attacking ability to counter their defensive inability is now denied two key attacking players so it really doesn’t look good for the visitors.
For me, it’s time Kortrijk finally took points off Standard. Motivation against the bigger clubs is always high and with a win behind them, Kortrijk do bring momentum into this game. They’re not the best side in the world; indeed, their home record flatters them. However, they’re a hard side to play against at the best of times and with some fresh confidence in their camp, I fancy them here, especially with Standard’s best two offensive weapons missing this game through injury, although I’ll take the home win with draw no bet cover for obvious reasons.
Team news – Kortrijk miss El Araichi and Gershon for this game whereas Standard miss Tchite.
Verdict: Kortrijk to win with draw no bet at 21/20.
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Sporting Braga vs Academica de Coimbra – both sides to score at evens.
It’ll be interesting to see if the temporary Liga Sagres break has calmed Braga down as they were quite adamant about having most of their players sent off prior to it, having three dismissed in a 3-1 defeat at Uniao de Leiria.
A more pressing issue for them may be their absentees for this game tonight, however, although the suspension of players sent off is a factor for some of the missing players, ironically. Braga miss number one goalkeeper Felipe, important defender Echiejile, strikers Nascimento (Mateus) and Lima (two hefty blows for Braga’s attack!) and squad rotation defender Garcia. I’d atypically stay away from sides scoring against Braga at Braga because they’re solid defensively but they’re missing players and they’re not playing well as four defeats in five games indicates all too well. Their UEFA Champions League campaign has done a lot of damage to their domestic campaign due to not having great strength in-depth and I expect signs of that to still show in tonight’s games. Indeed, Braga have only kept two clean sheets at home this season in the Liga Sagres, both of which were against Madeira clubs, ironically. They’ve conceded in their other home games against poor-travelling Naval de Maio and Olhanense, let alone newly-promoted sides Portimonense and Beira-Mar, the latter of which won here 2-3! Braga are not looking very assured here and having conceded at home to Academica for three out of their last four meetings, I expect more of the same tonight.
It aids my cause that Academica play nice football themselves, of course. They’re rarely an easy side to face because they do know how to keep the ball and take their chances and I think they’ll fancy their chances against under-strength Braga tonight, to be honest. They’re not on a great run themselves, Academica, but just two defeats in six away games demonstrates their capabilities, tempremental though they are. Academica have played in thirteen games this season and the only one that they’ve not scored in was their game against giants Porto, which is forgivable. Only heavyweights Porto and SL Benfica have scored more than Academica have this season in the Liga Sagres so Academica really should be taken seriously here, especially as they’re only missing one important player (Berger from defence, which aids this bet more than hindering it) and whilst boasting in-form attacking players Fidalgo, Sougou, and Laionel at their disposal. With attacking trio Valente, Diogo, and Coelho likely to be supporting them tonight, you have to note that Academica have some rather gifted and able attacking players at their disposal and even if Braga were strong defensively at the moment, I’d still fancy Academica to score here.
Therefore, my call is for both sides to score as it’s priced fairly generously at evens. I’m partially tempted by the away win with draw no bet cover but I’ll avoid it as Braga are still the better side. However, both sides scoring in this game appeals to me a lot so that’s my call tonight.
Team news – Braga miss Felipe, Echiejile, Lima, Nascimento, and Garcia whereas Academica miss Berger.
Verdict: Both sides to score at evens.
Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!
Accumulator fodder:
Adelaide United, Novara, Twente Enschede, Trabzonspor.
Recommended bets:
Adelaide United, Twente Enschede, and Kortrijk DNB at 3/1.
Novara, Trabzonspor, and Alemannia Aachen at 3/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Australian A-League:
Adelaide United vs Melbourne Heart (8) -1.5 handicap
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Kortrijk vs Standard de Liege (5) 2-1, draw no bet
English Championship:
Doncaster Rovers vs Middlesbrough (5) under 2.5 goals
English League One:
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Notts County (6)
French Ligue 2:
AC Ajaccio vs Angers SCO (5) draw no bet, under 2.5 goals
Chateauroux vs Boulogne (6)
Grenoble Foot vs Dijon FCO (4)
Reims vs Clermont Foot (5) over 2.5 goals
Tours vs Nimes (7)
Troyes vs Evian Thonon Gaillard (4) draw no bet
Vannes OC vs Le Havre (6)
Nantes vs Sedan-Ardennes (5)
German Bundesliga:
Borussia Moenchengladbach vs Hamburger SV (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
German Bundesliga 2:
MSV Duisburg vs VfL Bochum (6)
Arminia Bielefeld vs Alemannia Aachen (6)
Italian Serie B:
Novara vs Pescara (8)
Dutch Eredivisie:
Twente Enschede vs Heracles Almelo (8) over 2.5 goals
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Dordrecht ’90 vs Volendam (4) over 2.5 goals
Telstar vs RKC Waalwijk (7) over 2.5 goals
Den Bosch vs Fortuna Sittard (3) both sides to score
MVV Maastricht vs Zwolle (7)
Eindhoven vs RBC Roosendaal (6) over 2.5 goals
Emmen vs Cambuur Leeuwarden (4) draw no bet
Go Ahead Eagles vs Veendam (5)
Almere City vs Sparta Rotterdam (5)
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs Helmond Sport (6) both sides to score
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Sporting Braga vs Academica de Coimbra (5) both sides to score
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Deportivo Xerez vs Girona (6) over 2.5 goals
Turkish Super Lig:
Trabzonspor vs Karabukspor (8) 2-1
Welsh Premier League:
Bala Town vs Aberystwyth Town (5) 1-2, draw no bet
Haverfordwest County vs Port Talbot Town (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Neath Athletic vs Llanelli (6) 1-0
The New Saints vs Bangor City (6) 2-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!