Atletas vs Zalgiris Vilnius
FreeToday’s featured game is the A Lyga game between Atletas and Zalgiris Vilnius. Atletas have been virtually relegated since the start of the season due to points deduction and abysmal displays whereas old hands Zalgiris Vilnius will be looking to end their season with European football following a good campaign.
However, the tides have turned somewhat of late and it’s making this game a lot tighter than the A Lyga table indicates. I don’t think Atletas have been off the bottom of the table all season long and fourteen defeats in nineteen games indicates why that is. They’re generally not a threat in attack and thus are useful to bet against 99% of the time. However, my point regarding Atletas today concerns their goals tally more than their results. They’re not getting closer to winning games but they are getting closer to keeping sides out. Lithuanian footballing giants nowadays are Ekranas Panevezys, Suduva Marijampole, and Vetra Vilnius respectively. Atletas have faced Ekranas and Vetra in their last five games, losing 1-0 at Ekranas and drawing 0-0 at Vetra; two sides that are a lot better than they are. They’ve also kept scorelines tight against Klaipeda (0-1 home defeat), Mazeikiai (1-2 home defeat), and Kruoja Pakruojis (1-1 draw) respectively so you can see where I’m coming from here. There’s a growing undercurent of momentum in the Atletas camp and they’re getting close to pulling off a shock so I wouldn’t underestimate them today.
Zalgiris Vilnius are one of Lithuania’s oldest clubs and their return to the A Lyga was eagerly sought after by all of their fans. Their squad is good but they’re not yet amongst the better sides in the division although it’s only a matter of time before they are again. Their squad is very experienced, which has assisted them greatly this season, and the goals of top goalscorer Jersovas have been very welcome indeed as they’re fairly ineffectual without him, hence their 1-1 draw at Banga Gargzdai last match. Zalgiris are a well-organised side that are hard to beat but for all their qualities, they’re not a very potent side, which is why I find their odds to win this game somewhat laughable. Try as they might, Zalgiris are nowhere near as good away from home as they are at home and two consecutive draws on the road against fairly inferior sides indicates that. Their early-season momentum has been lost and they look a little weary so a battling Atletas side may not be as welcome an opponent as the A Lyga table suggests.
Although I’m willing to admit that this is a risky call, I think the odds on under 2.5 goals are too generous today. Atletas aren’t conceding many and Zalgiris aren’t scoring many so I think going under 2.5 goals on this game today could be a good bet.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Avai vs Santos – home win at 27/20.
Avai won the first leg of this tie 3-1 last week and are now in the driving seat as a result. Avai don’t believe in defending as they’re an atypical Brazilian side with the intention of scoring more than their opponents. Moreover, they’re a dominant home side as five wins from eight games in Serie A this season indicates, scoring over two goals per game. They overcame league leaders Corinthains here 3-2 at weekend and look well-placed to take Santos apart in a similar manner. The reliance of Santos upon young Neymar this season has come to light of late with the youngster being called up to play for Brazil’s senior team and also being chased by Chelsea affecting his displays and thus leaving Santos without results. They still have good players but his enthusiasm is infectious and the only way Santos will win this game is via his input and even then it’s a long shot – nobody wins at Avai!
My sole doubt for this game is whether Avai care enough to perform as they won the first leg comfortably but the odds are too long to ignore for a side that puts great effort into every game, particularly when hosting an out-of-form side with a leaky defence so I like the home win for Avai tonight.
Verdict: Avai to win at 27/20.
Torpedo Zhodino vs Naftan Novopolotsk – away win at 7/5.
Torpedo Zhodino have had a terrible season and face the very real threat of relegation whilst their opponents today have also under-achieved this season, finding themselves closer to the relegation zone than the European places. Zhodino have already lost six out of nine home games in the Vysshaya Liga games this season and Naftan are yet to win an away game so something has to give here. The difference between the two sides, however, is quality. Zhodino’s financial problems mean that they no longer have it and Naftan’s poor start to the season means that they still have it but previously lacked to the cohesion to make it work. However, Naftan now have that momentum with four wins, one draw, and just one defeat in their past six games despite facing a trip to giants BATE Borisov along the way. They’re not a good away side in general, Naftan, which is why their odds are so generous – theyre very much a home side. However, they’ve won their last three Vysshaya Liga visits to Torpedo Zhodino, only conceding in one of those games, so they do have a knack of winning here. It aids their cause that they’ve not faced such a weak Torpedo side for some years now so I do fancy Naftan today, particularly as they boast one of the best defences in the league and have finally added their usual potency to their game. It also helps that Zhodino have been crushed for four consecutive home games in the Vysshaya Liga, failing to even register a goal in their last three, embarassingly losing 4-0 home to Vitebsk in their last home game – true relegation form.
Naftan’s defence will play a big part here because it’s their biggest strength. I’ll be a little nervous if Zhodino score because I don’t expect them to. However, the momentum and displays of Naftan of late have been excellent and with the side scoring for fun, the away win looks a good value bet today.
Verdict: Naftan Novopolotsk to win at 7/5.
Cerezo Osaka vs Tokyo – home win at 6/5.
I’ve been so impressed with Cerezo Osaka since promotion that I find myself readily backing them whenever I can. I admire their well-organised displays, their accurate tactical approaches, their solid defence, and their clinical finishing. Few sides have played better than them this season and considering they were only promoted to the J-League this season, I find that particularly impressive. Only four sides in the J-League have conceded less at home than Cerezo Osaka and their record of five wins from nine home games is good in my books. Only two sides have scored against them in their past six games and those two sides were a good Albirex Niigata away and league leaders Shimizu S-Pulse away. They’ve kept clean sheets in their other games and have won two out of their last three games thanks to consistent pressure and clinical finishing so they really are a complete unit at the moment and I have great respect for them as a result.
However, as much as though I’d like to, we cannot write off Tokyo. I still think that the bookies give generous home win odds like today because of Tokyo’s displays on the road last season, which were a one-off. That said, it cannot be denied that they are a competent side, especially in defence, so they’re never an easy side to face. They’ve lost five out of nine on the road already this season because they only score a lot of goals against poor sides. Eight out of their eleven away goals this season have come against Omiya Ardija, Shonan Bellmare, and Montedio Yamagata respectively – three pretty damn poor sides, in my opinion. They struggle against good sides, which is what Cerezo are, so although I don’t doubt Tokyo’s ability to give them a tough game, I do fancy the hosts to match their energy and claim the three points.
With no wins for four consecutive J-League games, Tokyo have to be a tad demoralised and Cerezo Osaka is not the side to face when you’re not at 100%. I’ll be surprised but pleasantly so to see Cerezo’s run last the distance but I’m prepared to ride it when they’re playing as well as they are now. All in all, 6/5 looks too generous on the home win today so that’s my recommendation here.
Verdict: Cerezo Osaka to win at 6/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Universidad de Chile, Suduva Marijampole, IFK Norrkoping.
Recommended bets:
I don’t like any multiples today, guys – sorry!
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
UEFA Champions League Qualifiers:
Salzburg vs Hapoel Tel-Aviv (7) over 2.5 goals
Basel vs Sheriff Tiraspol (7) 2-1
Partizan Belgrade vs Anderlecht (6) 1-1
Sporting Braga vs Sevilla CF (5) 1-1
Werder Bremen vs Sampdoria (5) over 2.5 goals
Copa Libertadores:
Internacional vs Guadalajara (5) 1-1
Copa Sudamericana:
Avai vs Santos (7) over 2.5 goals
International Friendlies:
Yemen vs Armenia (6) 1-2
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Torpedo Zhodino vs Naftan Novopolotsk (6) 0-1
Chilean Primera Division:
Universidad de Chile vs Municipal Iquique (8) over 2.5 goals
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Universidad Catolica vs Deportivo Cuenca (6) 1-1
Emelec Guayaquil vs Independiente (5) 1-0
Olmedo Riobamba vs Macara Ambato (6) 2-1
Manta vs El Nacional Quito (6) 1-1
Deportivo Quito vs Liga de Quito (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Japanese J-League:
Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus (6) 0-0
Shonan Bellmare vs Kyoto Sanga (6) 1-0
Jubilo Iwata vs Vissel Kobe (5) 1-0, draw no bet
Cerezo Osaka vs Tokyo (7) 2-1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Omiya Ardija (5) 1-1
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Atletas vs Zalgiris Vilnius (7) under 2.5 goals
Kruoja Pakruojis vs Tauras Taurage (6) 1-1
Mazeikiai vs Siauliai (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Suduva Marijampole vs Klaipeda (8) under 2.5 goals
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Brommapojkarna vs Djurgarden (5) 2-1
Swedish Superettan:
Brage vs Hammarby (6)
Trollhattan vs Degerfors (5)
IFK Norrkoping vs Vasby United (8) both sides to score
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Trujillanos vs Estudiantes de Merida (6) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips