Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Boyaca Chico
FreeToday’s featured game is the Colombian Primera A encounter between giants Atletico Junior Barranquilla and in-form Boyaca Chico. The hosts have long been a force in Colombia and are one of the more feared away games for other Primera A sides. Visitors Boyaca Chico had their purple patch a couple of seasons ago, even achieving a place in the Copa Libertadores, but have since deteriorated and have never really recovered from their descent.
Somehow, the bookies seem to rate these two sides as about the same; why? Atletico Junior Barranquilla have been an established and good side in the Primera A for longer than I care to remember. They were lethal at home last season with seven wins, one draw, and just one defeat from nine home games in the Apertura and won eight out of nine home games in the Clausura, drawing the other game. In fact, no side scored more goals at home in the Clausura than Atletico as they averaged scoring over three goals per home game. Bluntly, they’re a phenomenal home side and have proven that already this season despite a somewhat mixed start with four wins from five home games. They average scoring nearly two goals per home game and have only conceded three goals at home so far this season, all of which were in the same game against in-form Real Cartagena in which Atletico hilariously decided that the hispanic trait of playing with eight men was the way to claw back the deficit. Aside from that one lapse in concentration, Atletico haven’t conceded at home this season. They’re one of the top three sides in Colombia, in my opinion, and although their start hasn’t been great, that fact still remains.
Visitors Boyaca Chico are on a great run of form with four wins from their last five Primera A games. They’ve been scoring a lot, which has impressed me the most, as they’ve totalled up a tally of nine goals in five games. However, who have they played? Millonarios Bogota, Atletico Nacional de Medellin, La Equidad Bogota, Deportivo Cali, and Deportes Quindio – all sides that are around themselves in the table. I respect any side that can claim four wins from five games because you must be doing something right to achieve such a record but Boyaca Chico are out of their depth in this game tonight. There’s a damn good reason that they’ve lost five out of their last six visits here, only claiming one point from a possible eighteen, and that’s because they are not good enough to do so! Boyaca Chico lost here 5-2 last season and have already lost three out of five away games this season so why the bookies suddenly think that they’ll get something from this game is beyond me.
I’m trying really hard to find something which doesn’t make this look like a hideous lack of homework from the bookies but I simply can’t find anything. Atletico Junior Barranquilla are easily twice the side that Boyaca Chico and no matter how good Boyaca Chico’s run of form is, that fact is simply not going to change. I’m baffled that the odds for this selection aren’t 2/5, let alone 4/5!! I can only assume that the odds will drop heavily on this game heavily when fellow Colombian enthusiasts such as myself back the home win but until then I’d recommend taking this as it should be a clear and concise home win.
Verdict: Atletico Junior Barranquilla to win at 4/5.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Girondins de Bordeaux vs Olympique Lyonnais – home win at 11/10.
This game is a crucial clash of two very different Ligue 1 sides. The first leg at Stade Gerland ended 3-1 to the hosts although I think the vast majority of people would agree that the scoreline flattered Olympique Lyonnais. Girondins de Bordeaux basically bottled it on the night, losing their atypically well-organised defence which will have irritated the hell out of Laurent Blanc as a former defender himself as Bordeaux’s predominant strength over other sides is keeping them out. That was the reason that they won here at home to Lyon last season without conceding and was also the reason that they won at Lyon earlier on this season without conceding, both games being in Ligue 1.
Bordeaux have stuttered of late with the difficulty of competing on so many fronts and their stretched squad is struggling. However, what Blanc has shown of late is that he’s more keen to do well in the UEFA Champions League than any of the other competitions. This is significant as he’ll put far more into tonight’s game rather than eyeing up the tricky trip to Paris Saint-Germain in a few days time. Blanc knows Bordeaux won’t win the Champions League so why is he prioritising it? Well, I suspect he’s either trying to improve his reputation on the biggest stage in club football to attract a move to a bigger club or potentially nominate himself as the manager of the French national side after the World Cup. Either way, he’s done himself no harm whatsoever with some outstanding results already this season in the Champions League. I think this game will see the end of Bordeaux’s great run in this competition because I can’t see them overcoming their deficit from the trip to Lyon but I do think Bordeaux will win the game. They’re a better side than Lyon tactically and it often shows. If Bordeaux hold their nerve then they should win this game 1-0 or possibly 2-1. Lyon are a flambuoyant side but they’re not great tactically and have struggled on the road of late in all competitions, even drawing a blank at lowly Boulogne. Lyon don’t need anything from this game to qualify other than to not lose heavily so I can’t see them going all out for the win.
The odds look good on a home win tonight because Bordeaux have to win whatever happens and Lyon can afford to lose. Bordeaux have won all four of their previous home games in the Champions League against Bayern Munich, Juventus, Maccabi Haifa, and Olympiakos Piraeus respectively – some of the most experienced sides in European football – so don’t underestimate them when playing at the Chaban Delmas. Lyon are no mugs but I expect them to lose tonight to a side that is better tactically and a side that has more reason to win this game.
Verdict: Girondins de Bordeaux to win at 11/10.
Chacarita Juniors vs Lanus – away win at 13/8.
Chacarita Juniors have already lost four out of six home games in the Primera Division and that’s because they’re a poor side. They won their last home game in emphatic fashion against out-of-sorts Boca Juniors 4-1 although it’s fair to say that Boca brought upon their own downfall by taking the lead, having a man sent off, and then capitulating defensively. Chacarita have actually lose four out of their last five games and are conceding goals far too easily, hence their dilemma. Prior to their win over Boca Juniors, Chacarita Juniors lost two consecutive games 1-0 against Independiente and Gimnasia De La Plata respectively so that’s the record I’m choosing to pay more attention to tonight.
Visitors Lanus look to be well on their way to getting back to their infuriating best with four wins from their past five games in all competitions. Lanus don’t appear to have mastered their ability of goalscoring, something they’ve done exactly once in all five of their last five games, but they’re riding it as their defending has been nothing short of heroic with only one goal conceded during those five games during a tricky trip to Paraguay to face Libertad Asuncion. Lanus won 1-0 at little Tigre in their last Primera Division away game and won 1-0 at home to River Plate in their last game so Lanus are rapidly gaining momentum. I can’t say I favour the 1-0 win routine because sooner or later it will go horribly wrong. The old saying is “one goal is never enough” and it’s still applicable now. However, Lanus are playing well at the moment and they are the better of these two sides so the odds look rather favourable for a tentative punt on the away win tonight!
Verdict: Lanus to win at 13/8.
Flamengo vs Universidad de Chile – home win at 4/9.
I can’t fathom these odds at all – why aren’t Flamengo 1/3 for this game?! Universidad de Chile are more experienced in this competition than Flamengo are and will defend like troopers in Brazil but they should lose. Flamengo are just too good for them. This is the kind of in-play game you want to be watching as Universidad don’t concede easily in general so it will take Flamengo some time so give that some thought ahead of tonight’s game. Basically though, Flamengo at 4/9 to win at home against the majority of sides on this competition is a bargain. Flamengo need to win this game to further their Copa Libertadores dream and have already beaten Universidad’s bitter rivals Universidad Catolica here 2-0 so I can’t fathom these odds at all. This is definitely accumulator fodder or in-play gold!
Verdict: Flamengo to win at 4/9.
Banfield vs San Lorenzo de Almagro – home win at 10/11.
Tut tut! Underestimating a strong home side like Banfield is definitely tut-worthy from the bookies, particularly as they’re hosting a good but misfiring and thus under-performing San Lorenzo de Almagro.
Let’s cut to the chase – Banfield aren’t playing well at the moment. They’ve won just once in their last five games in all competitions but only one of those games has been at home in the Primera Division and that was in fact their only win during those five games, beating Gimnasia De La Plata 3-2. I can’t quite work out where Banfield’s loyalties lie competition-wise but Banfield have won four out of six home games in the Primera Division already this season and average scoring nearly two goals per home game, conceding just one goal per every two home games on average. Banfield has become a nightmare side to play away from home in the last couple of years and tonight’s game is far from exempt from that unwritten ruling.
I like San Lorenzo de Almagro but they’re having a terrible time due to a lack of goals being scored. They’ve scored just twice in their past four games and both of those goals were scored in the same game. San Lorenzo drew that game 2-2, incidentally, and have lost the other three games 1-0. They’re defending quite well, to be fair, but if you’re conceding and not scoring then you’re going to lose games, ultimately. San Lorenzo have already lost five out of six away games in the Primera Division this season, which is more defeats on the road than any other Argentinian side currently, and that’s largely due to the fact that they’ve scored just one goal during those miserable six games. It won’t surprise you to learn that they’ve only conceded six goals during those six games but five times those goals conceded have been fatal due to their inability to score goals. This record does prove that San Lorenzo are a capable side as a competent San Lorenzo wouldn’t lose four of those games but they’re in a rough place right now and aren’t getting any help from an unsympathetic league so times are tough for San Lorenzo and should get tougher tonight.
Oh, the irony! Only the top two in the Primera Division – Independiente and Godoy Cruz de Mendoza – have conceded less goals away from home than San Lorenzo have but everyone in the division has scored more than they have away from home. Even an under-performing Banfield should be able to make their home advantage count enough to at least score once tonight and that should prove fatal to an impotent San Lorenzo. San Lorenzo’s record won’t last forever and I’m sure they’ll open the floodgates against some unsuspecting side at somepoint but I can’t see that happening against a solid Banfield side on their own turf so I’ll ride the home win at generous odds.
This isn’t as much of a dead certain bet as I’d like it to be because San Lorenzo are a sleeping dragon and Banfield aren’t playing as well as they can. Plus the head-to-head factor doesn’t favour Banfield much either! Nonetheless, at 10/11, Banfield are worth backing at home to just about any Argentinian side so I have to call them tonight as a good value bet.
Verdict: Banfield to win at 10/11.
Deportes Quindio vs Atletico Huila – away win at 13/10.
There’s not really much to this one. Deportes Quindio are absolutely atrocious currently with ten defeats in eleven games and are still winless. They’ve scored twice and conceded seventeen goals and their barren run of form leaves them bereft of confidence, momentum, and potency, which all basically adds up to Deportes Quindio being able to even lose against themselves if that were indeed possible. They’ve lost all five of their home games already this season and should lose a sixth one tonight. Atletico Huila aren’t a great side but they’re one of the more competent mid-table sides. They’ve won once on the road in five attempts, losing three times, but they’re still more than able to win this one as their tally of seven goals scored in five away games indicates. Atletico Huila took a valuable three points at home to Deportivo Cali last match to boost their momentum and haven’t lost here during their last two visits in the Primera A, winning their last visit here 0-2.
Although the Colombian away win is always a dubious call, the odds on this one still surprise me given the demise of Depores Quindio. I’d expect something more like 5/6 but I’m happy to take the generous odds offered tonight.
Verdict: Atletico Huila to win at 13/10.
Astra Ploiesti vs Vaslui – away win at 11/10.
Little Astra Ploiesti are a decent home side with only three defeats here in twelve games following their promotion to this division. However, they’re now beginning to find Liga 1 life very tough indeed and have been brought back down to earth with a bang following three consecutive defeats. The loss that started it – at home to Poli Timisoara – was acceptable but their defeat at relegation rivals Unirea Alba Iulia and at home to a talented but misfiring Unirea Urziceni were surprising to say the least. Astra have now conceded seven times in three games and scored just twice so they’re looking likely to struggle to stay in this division currently.
Vaslui are one of the better sides in the division as six wins in thirteen away games indicates rather well. They’re one of the bigger goalscoring sides in the division on the road and have won their last four Liga games consecutively without even conceding in their last three. Vaslui impressively won at Poli Timisoara in their last away game without conceding, which showed their defensive strength, but also scored three goals past lowly Unirea Alba Iuli last match to show the other side of their game. Vaslui have strong momentum due to their results and are looking one of the better sides in Romania currently due to their relentlessly efficient displays and look more than capable of taking three points from this game today to further their claim for the Liga title.
There’s a big gulf in class here and although Romanian away wins are far from my favourite call, the gap in momentum and potency between these two sides is immense and it should show today with a fairly comfortable away win for the title challengers.
Verdict: Vaslui to win at 11/10.
Gloria Bistrita vs Steaua Bucharest – away win at evens.
Gloria Bistrita are a competent home side in this division with just three defeats in twelve games and owe that record largely to strong defending. Glora Bistrita have won three out of their last five games, losing twice, but remaining solid at home throughout. Gloria Bistrita are unbeaten at home since returning from the winter break but have been somewhat low on goals scored of late with just two goals scored in their past three games. They’ve struggled on the road of late, even losing to International, and it has affected them mentally as their narrow home win against Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt showed all too clearly. Gloria Bistrita have conceded five goals at home to Steaua Bucharest for their last two visits, drawing once and losing once, but similar defending today will no doubt have catastrophic results with their own goalscoring somewhat lessened of late.
Steaua Bucharest have been one of the better “big sides” away from home since returning from the winter break with impressive draws at CFR Cluj, reigning champions Unirea Urziceni, an unfortunate token defeat at bitter rivals Dinamo Bucharest, and a clean sheet at Pandurii Targu Jiu. Steaua disappointed me by failing to win at Pandurii but the hosts for that game were rigid defensively and thus rode their luck. Steaua haven’t conceded a goal in their past three games so they’re solid defensively. They’re not big on goalscoring at the moment but six wins in thirteen away games says that they’re capable of doing so at any time. Steaua were hurt by not winning the league last season; they’ll be keen to remedy that by winning this season, despite the sale of talismanic defender Radoi in the summer.
This should be a dour, tenacious game between two solid defensive sides. However, Steaua are head and shoulders above Gloria Bistrita in terms of quality and any time I see Steaua at evens in this division, I consider it to be a good value bet because they are talented and have some great individuals. Steaua should edge this game 1-0 with a bit of luck as I can’t see Gloria Bistrita scoring against their rigid defence today.
Verdict: Steaua Bucharest to win at evens.
Energiya Khabarovsk vs Khimki – home win at 5/4.
Khimki’s return to this division may have had a welcoming win at home to newly-promoted Avengard Kursk but now they’ll be battling with the old hands of this division on a trip that they will have not forgotten. Khimki generally had a good record here in the past but they’ve not made the trip across five time zones for some time and will no doubt struggle, particularly during the early part of the season. Khimki’s last trip to these parts was a trip to Khabarovsk’s bitter rivals Luch-Energiya Vladivostok in the Russian Premier League a couple of seasons ago, a result that resulted in a fortuitous 1-1 draw due to a late equaliser. No side can relish such a horrific trip and I can’t see Khimki having an easy ride here whatsoever.
Energiya Khabarovsk needed their solid home form to keep them in this division last season and will need it again this season. They don’t score many goals but their defence is particularly strong at home so they don’t often need to. Energiya’s season started well with a draw at bitter rivals Luch-Energiya and will bring some momentum into this game as a result, contrary to what people may believe as Khabarovsk didn’t actually win the game. Khabarovsk will be looking forward to welcoming former Premier League side Khimki here for obvious reasons and I expect a more motivated display from them as a result.
Although this is a dubious call in what should be a terrible footballing encounter, I’m backing Khabarovsk tentatively to have enough motivation and enough of the “welcome home” factor to take the game to Khimki and remind them as to why most Russian sides dread this trip. Odds of 5/4 aren’t as good as I’d hoped but there should still be value in this selection today.
Verdict: Energiya Khabarovsk to win at 5/4.
Salyut Belgorod vs KamAZ Nab Chelny – home win at 11/10.
Salyut Belgorod are yet to win a game this season but bear in mind that their two games played have been away from home, where Salyut are weakest. To their credit, they only lost 1-0 at recently-relegated Khimki and claimed a draw at a solid Kuban Krasnodor so Salyut look just as strong as last season, particularly in defence. Salyut’s real strength lies in their home games where they won fourteen out of nineteen games last season, losing just twice, a record bettered only by Sibir Novosibirsk. Salyut will look forward to playing their first home game of the season as they’re hosting a side that haven’t even scored here on their last three visits, drawing once and losing twice. Salyut averaging scoring nearly two goals per home game last season, which is a potent record for a Russian club, and should be in similar stead ahead of this season’s promotion push for which they look a lot more equipped defensively and away from home.
Visitors KamAZ Nab Chelny are another side looking for promotion this season. They’re a good side but I think this season may be a bridge too far for them yet again as they’re not good enough away from home. They lost eight out of nineteen away games last season and although they’ve already won twice this season, both of those games were at home to newly-promoted Rotor Volgograd and low-key Volgar Gazprom Astrakhan. I’ve no doubts over Nab Chelny at home but away from home I think they’ll be undone as usual.
It’s still early season in Russia so approach with caution but there should be value in the home win for a solid home side – Salyut Belgorod.
Verdict: Salyut Belgorod to win at 11/10.
Zhemchuzhina Sochi vs Shinnik Yaroslavl’ – away win at 15/8.
My initial reaction to seeing these odds was “Eh?”. A newly-promoted side hosting a side favourites for promotion this season and a side that is arguably the richest in the division?! I can’t grasp these odds whatsoever. The geographical location isn’t any more condemning than the average trip in Russia and Sochi have done little to convince me that they’re ready to battle with the big boys, which Shinnik certainly are, so I can’t fathom these odds at all. I can only think that there’s some secret agenda here or the bookies are making a horrific mistake. Either way, the odds on the away win look very favourable indeed so is surely worth a punt today.
Verdict: Shinnik Yaroslavl’ to win at 15/8.
Aragua vs Yaracuyanos – home win at 5/6.
Aragua are one of the most established sides in the Venezuelan Primera Division and tend to rely on their home form for that accolade. They’ve already won three out of four home games this season and although they’re a rather goal-shy outfit, Aragua are astute defensively and tend to make their presence felt at home. The only side to win here this season (other than Aragua) is giants Caracas so the hosts are certainly a force on their own turf.
Visitors Yaracuyanos have already lost three out of their four away games in the Primera Division and have conceded a hefty twelve times during their four away games, which is an average of three goals per away game. They know how to score goals but atrocious defending of this kind tends to only have one outcome as Yaracuyanos have discovered numerous times this season already.
This is a risky call as both sides are out of form and battling relegation but Aragua are tough at home and Yaracuyanos don’t travel well due to conceding too many goals so the odds should be good value on the home win tonight.
Verdict: Aragua to win at 5/6.
Accumulator fodder:
Olympique de Marseille, Unirea Urziceni, Poli Timisoara, Krasnodor, Gombak United, Schaffhausen, Racing Club Montevideo, Caracas.
Recommended bets:
Unirea Urziceni, Vaslui, and Banfield at 6/1.
Aragua, Caracas, and Racing Club Montevideo at 5/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Champions League:
Girondins de Bordeaux vs Olympique Lyonnais (6) 1-0
Manchester United vs Bayern Munich (6) 1-0
Copa Libertadores:
Deportivo Cuenca vs Club Nacional de Montevideo (5) 0-0
Flamengo vs Universidad de Chile (8) under 2.5 goals
Baltic League:
Liepajas Metalurgs vs Skonto Riga (6) 1-1
Suduva Marijampole vs Levadia Tallinn (7) 1-0
Argentinian Primera Division:
Chacarita Juniors vs Lanus (6) 0-1
Gimnasia De La Plata vs Independiente (6) 0-1
River Plate vs Newell’s Old Boys (6) 1-1
Banfield vs San Lorenzo de Almagro (7) 2-0
Belgian Tweede Klasse:
Boussu Dour Borinage vs OH Leuven (7)
Liege vs Standaard Wetteren (6)
Colombian Primera A:
La Equidad Bogota vs Envigado (6) 1-1
Deportes Tolima vs Real Cartagena (7) 2-1
Millonarios Bogota vs Cortulua (6) 2-1
Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs America de Cali (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Deportes Quindio vs Atletico Huila (6) 1-2
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Boyaca Chico (8) 2-0
Cucuta Deportivo vs Once Caldas Manizales (5) 1-1
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
Vikingur Gotu vs HB Torshavn (6) over 2.5 goals
Finnish Liiga Cup:
Jaro Pietarsaari vs JJK Jyvaskyla (6) 1-0
FC Honka Espoo vs Inter Turku (6) 1-0
French Ligue 1:
Olympique de Marseille vs Sochaux (8) 2-1
Romanian Liga:
Unirea Urziceni vs Gaz Metan Medias (8) under 2.5 goals
Unirea Alba Iulia vs Universitatea Craiova (6) 0-1
Astra Ploiesti vs Vaslui (8) 0-1
Poli Timisoara vs International (8) 2-0
Gloria Bistrita vs Steaua Bucharest (7) 1-2
Russian Division 1:
Energiya Khabarovsk vs Khimki (7) under 2.5 goals
Volgar Gazprom Astrakhan vs Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast (5)
Rotor Volgograd vs Irtysh Pavlodar (4) under 1.5 goals
Nizhnyi Novgorod vs Dinamo St.Petersburg (6)
Salyut Belgorod vs KamAZ Nab Chelny (6) under 2.5 goals
Avangard Kursk vs Volga Nizhny Novgorod (7) to win to nil
Zhemchuzhina Sochi vs Shinnik Yaroslavl’ (6) over 2.5 goals
Krasnodor vs Dinamo Bryansk (8)
Scottish Premier League:
Rangers vs Aberdeen (8) 2-1
Singaporean S-League:
Gombak United vs Etoile (7) 1-0
Swiss Challenge League:
Wohlen vs Locarno (7)
Schaffhausen vs Le Mont (8)
Ukrainian Premier League:
Zorya Lugansk vs Metalurg Donetsk (5) 0-1
Karpaty Lviv vs Tavriya Simferopol (4) 0-0
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Racing Club Montevideo vs Atenas (8) 2-0
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Aragua vs Yaracuyanos (7) 1-0
Atletico El Vigia vs Deportivo Tachira (5) 1-1
Centro Italo vs Carabobo (5) 2-1
Mineros de Guayana vs Zulia (4) 0-0
Monagas SC vs Zamora (6) 1-1
Llaneros de Guanare vs Real Esppor Club (7) 1-1
Caracas vs Estudiantes de Merida (8) 2-0
Deportivo Lara vs Deportivo Anzoategui (5) 1-0
Welsh Premier League:
Neath Athletic vs Port Talbot Town (4) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!