Atletico Madrid vs Chelsea
FreeToday’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League encounter between Atletico Madrid and Chelsea. The hosts were in dismal form when these two sides met two weeks ago at Stamford Bridge and were duly punished for their lack of cohesion by being trounced 4-0. The result perhaps flattered Chelsea as Atletico Madrid had some good chances of their own. However, what remains apparent is that Chelsea certainly did deserve the win so credit must be given to the Londoners for that. Carlo Ancelotti has certainly got Chelsea playing very good and efficient football. They’ve won all three of their group games so far and a win today would all but guarantee them qualification for the latter stages of the UEFA Champions League. Atletico Madrid have gained just one point from a possible nine, which really isn’t good enough for a club of this size or for a club with any intentions whatsoever to launch a genuine attempt for club football’s most prestigious trophy. More worryingly for Atletico Madrid, they’re still yet to register a goal in the UEFA Champions League this year. Given their atrocious form of late and inability to keep a clean sheet, it’s very hard to look beyond n away win for an extremely potent and in-form Chelsea at 5/6, which is frankly a bargain.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Atletico Madrid vs Chelsea – away win at 5/6 – see introduction for full details.
Queens Park Rangers vs Crystal Palace – home win at 4/5. Hosts Queens Park Rangers let me down last friday by losing at home to Leicester City, which was really very disappointing, particularly as Radek Cerny simply gifted Matty Fryatt his goal towards the end of the game. However, they remain a good side, jolted though they are, with three wins in their past four games. What makes it easier for me to make this call is the unimpressive form of Neil Warnock’s Crystal Palace, who haven’t won in their last four games, drawing three times and losing once. The problems that the visitors are having isn’t entirely unexpected given their stretched squad of youngsters and their large financial issues. I’m more surprised that it’s taken this long to show, really, so hats off to Neil Warnock for that. However, I fully expect them to be outclassed today by a Queens Park Rangers side desperate to get back to winning ways. Therefore, 4/5 on the home win looks a good call to me!
AC Milan vs Real Madrid – home win at 6/4. After a surprise win at the Santiago Bernabeu, AC Milan have continued their muddled season as expected, thus proving my point that the reason they won was Real Madrid’s inability to defend and inability to score goals consistently without Cristiano Ronaldo. AC Milan managed a late victory at Chievo Verona after trailing for the majority of the game with two late goals from Alessandro Nesta stealing the win for the visitors. AC Milan have also managed to draw 2-2 at SSC Napoli despite leading for the majority of the game and then managed to overcome newly-promoted Parma at weekend by a scoreline of 2-0, which again didn’t tell the whole story with Parma coming close and even rattling the woodwork at the San Siro. However, Real Madrid have fared little better with a 4-0 first leg humbling at local rivals Alcorcon from the Spanish Segunda B league. What’s more worrying is that the encounter with Alcorcon saw Real Madrid field 80% of their first team and they were still torn apart by the minnows. Real Madrid may have managed to overcome Getafe at weekend 2-0 but there are more problems there than people see. Real Madrid’s biggest problem is not only that they cannot defend but their full-backs are atrocious, continually exposing Real Madrid’s feeble offside trap and getting crosses in all too easily. Italian sides are always tactically astute and will be aware of Real Madrid’s defensive weakness, something they indicated in the reverse fixture by having godly playmaker Andrea Pirlo launching balls in behind Marcelo and finding joy every time. Real Madrid are still missing Cristiano Ronaldo so it’s difficult to see them getting a result here unless they really turn it on. Don’t get me wrong – Real Madrid have better individuals than AC Milan but AC Milan have a highly experienced and organised side so I’m backing them to do the same again, particularly with striker Pato looking as lethal as he has been. Whereas it’s unlikely that Iker Casillas will have as much a nightmare this time around (or Dida, for that matter!), I still think AC Milan will win this game at 6/4. It’s also worth looking at over 2.5 goals or over 3.5 goals in this fixture as neither are particularly effective defensively.
APOEL Nicosia vs Porto – lay Porto at 11/10. This is a bold call but I’m going to base it on Porto’s recent mishaps more than anything. They’ve simply not been playing well and although they’ve managed to grind out a few results, they were finally exposed last match by a weak Belenenses, with whom they drew 1-1 at the Estadio do Dragao. Porto’s fans have been whistling/booing their team for the past few games now and it’s starting to have an impact on the team’s performances. Two things that the Cypriot hosts do have is tenacity and organisation, as all the Cypriot sides exemplify very well. APOEL Nicosia already proved in Madrid earlier on in this campaign that they’re capable of blocking sides out and being hard to beat. APOEL Nicosia can’t realistically have any hope of emerging from this group for the UEFA Champions League latter stages but they can harbour a hope for the third-place finish, which would put them in the UEFA Europa League. Both sides could use the win here but I feel confident that both would take the draw, too. If Porto turn it on then they’re capable of beating today’s hosts but I’m relying on them not showing up against their resilient hosts, particularly as English giants Chelsea have already struggled to get a result here in this campaign. Therefore, I feel there’s some good value in laying Porto at 11/10.
Bayern Munich vs Girondins de Bordeaux – lay Bayern Munich at 10/11. The fundamental point behind this bet is the assumption that Frank Ribery and Arjen Robben will be missing, like they were at VFB Stuttgart at weekend. Why? Because these two players turn Bayern Munich from an average side with a couple of good players into a force that are capable of scoring against any side. Bayern Munich failed to register a goal away to VFB Stuttgart at weekend, something that atypically wouldn’t be such a big issue but considering how badly VFB Stuttgart have played this season and the fact that they entered the game with Bayern Munich on the back of three straight defeats, you have to be surprised that the game finished 0-0. Bayern Munich suffered a defeat away to Girondins de Bordeaux two weeks ago, as well as suffering the indignity of having two men dismissed, who will both be missing for this counter. Bayern Munich have looked anything but reliable so far in European competition and I expect Laurent Blanc’s resilient and efficient Girondins de Bordeaux to put up a big fight today. Girondins de Bordeaux have already matched Juventus away from home, drawing 1-1, and beaten Bayern Munich 2-1, so in my opinion, they’re looking the most consistent side in this group currently and I wouldn’t bet against them winning the group. The French outfit have more talent than they’re given credit for so I think they’re more than capable of getting a result here today, particularly if Bayern Munich are missing the hilariously dubbed “Robbery” duo. Therefore, laying Bayern Munich at 10/11 looks a good bet to me today!
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Champions League:
Bayern Munich vs Girondins de Bordeaux (6) 1-1
Maccabi Haifa vs Juventus (8) under 2.5 goals
Manchester United vs CSKA Moscow (9) -1.75 handicap
Besiktas JK vs VFL Wolfsburg (7) 2-1
AC Milan vs Real Madrid (7) over 3.5 goals
Olympique de Marseille vs FC Zurich (8) -1.75 handicap
APOEL Nicosia vs Porto (4) 1-1
Atletico Madrid vs Chelsea (8) under 2.5 goals
Argentinian Primera Division:
Colon de Santa Fe vs Huracan (8) 2-1
Austrian Liga 1:
Dornbirn vs Austria Vienna II (6)
Lustenau vs First Vienna (5)
Admira Wacker vs Salzburg II (7)
St.Polten vs Hartberg (8)
Gratkorn vs Austria Lustenau (6)
Wacker Innsbruck vs SCR Altach (6) draw no bet
English Championship:
Queens Park Rangers vs Crystal Palace (7)
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Sillamae Kalev vs Levadia Tallinn (7) 1-2
Maag Tammeka Tartu vs Flora Paide (6) 1-0
Tulevik Viljandi vs Kuressaare (7) 2-1
Tallinna Kalev vs Flora Tallinn (8) over 2.5 goals
Nomme Kalju vs Trans Narva (7) over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!