Augsburg vs MSV Duisburg
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Bundesliga 2 encounter between heavyweights Augsburg and MSV Duisburg. Neither side is as strong as they were last season and I’d generally find it rather hard to seperate these two sides as they can usually match each other blow-for-blow.
In fact, the above is partially the reason that I’ve made this selection today as both sides should really nullify the other. Augsburg have been strong at home this season with six wins in ten Bundesliga 2 home games but that record largely stems from a solid defensive record rather than a flambuoyant goalscoring record, although Augsburg do enjoy a scoring spree from time to time. Duisburg have earned their dues away from home this season via a similar method of keeping sides out rather than relentlessly attacking, hence them losing just three times away from home in Bundesliga 2 this season.
Atypically, you’d expect this type of game to go over 2.5 goals with two good sides locking horns and some of the better attacking players in the division on show but I’m not so sure here. Four out of the last six meetings between these two sides have gone under 2.5 goals at either ground so there is a history of this game struggling for goals, more often than not. It aids my cause that Augsburg miss two important attackers in Oehrl and veteran Thurk, although Rafael is still a very good striker and Hain’s not a bad substitute for the afore-mentioned. They’re missing engine Traore in midfield too, which won’t help them greatly either.
However, they’re not alone with their absences as Duisburg are missing some players too, most notably giant Austrian striker Maierhofer, who is integral for scoring, creating chances, and holding the ball up. They’re also missing two very important midfielders in Sukalo and Yilmaz, both of which tend to contribute rather a lot with goals from midfield so Duisburg’s attacking game is massively hampered in this encounter.
Seven out of Duisburg’s ten away games in the Bundesliga 2 have gone under 2.5 goals this season and Augsburg’s last three home games in the division have all gone under 2.5 goals too. I think we’ll see the two sides cancel each other out here and although I’d have to give Augsburg the advantage as I think Duisburg are missing marginally more important players to their team than Augsburg are, I still think the value is in under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Team news – Augsburg miss Traore, Oehrl, and Thurk whereas Duisburg miss Sukalo, Yilmaz, and Maierhofer.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Independiente vs Velez Sarsfield – both sides to score at 10/11.
This is the first game of the Apertura for both sides and both sides here are a little altered following the usual transfer activity in Argentina. Independiente have signed Colombian defender Velez from Once Caldas Manizales and ex-Huracan striker Defederico from Corinthians so they’re set to push on this season, especially if Defederico links up well with Silvera. Velez Sarsfield have kept hold of most of their prized assets but Cristaldo left to join Metalist Kharkiv in Ukraine for a hefty sum. However, they’ve signed Ramirez from Godoy Cruz de Mendoza to bolster their midfield so the numbers are about the same for Velez with a slight tactical change required. Velez still have Maxi Moralez suppoting Silva and Martinez in attack, which for me is one of the best attacking trios in Argentina currently so I won’t write off Velez whatsoever, although the departed Cristaldo will be missed.
Independiente have played some competitive games already this season with back-to-back games against Ecuador’s Deportivo Quito in the Copa Libertadores seeing them exit the competition and a 0-1 defeat at home to Tigre last week in a game that was part of last season’s Clausura but was postponed due to Independiente’s participation in the Copa Sudamericana. Therefore, Independiente do have more match practive than Velez Sarsfield and they’ve looked decent so far although I think there’s more to come from them yet.
Velez are still the better of these two sides although at the start of a campaign, anything can happen, hence me not entering the 1×2 market on this one. Velez Sarsfield have a Copa Libertadores game in three days time too – will they rest players here? I wouldn’t have thought so personally – the game at home to Caracas isn’t one I’d label as difficult so even if Velez do rest players then it should be a minimal amount although make no mistake here – the Copa Libertadores is the Holy Grail for South American clubs and they’ll go through fire and water to win it!
Both sides have scored for two out of the last three meetings at Independiente and I wouldn’t be surprised to see more of the same here. Although Independiente have looked ok thus far, they’re still missing important defender Galeano in defence due to his international commitments with Argentina U20 at the Copa Sudamericano U20 tournament in Peru and that does make them more vulnerable at the back, which is the last thing you’d want against a Silva-Martinez partnership. However, Independiente bring their own threat into this game with experienced Silvera and promising Defederico so I think they could penetrate a fairly rusty Velez defence in this game tonight.
Therefore, my call is for both sides to score and although neither side is particularly adventurous in circumstances such as these, I think there’s a better chance of it coming in than the bookies do as odds of 10/11 suggest all too clearly.
Team news – Independiente miss Galeano for this game.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 10/11.
LDU Loja vs Deportivo Cuenca – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Newly-promoted LDU Loja have set about Primera A rather well, scoring goals for fun but defending suicidally at the same time. They’ve already beaten well-organised El Nacional Quito 2-1 at home and gave Emelec Guayaquil a real fright in a 3-2 defeat lately so Deportivo Cuenca are in for a rough ride here. Cuenca are notoriously bad travellers too, which doesn’t help their cause. However, this Cuenca side is one of the better Cuenca sides in recent years with their ability to win (even away from home) more evident than before. The signing of Paraguayan striker Ayala from Deportivo Quito looks a good move, in my eyes, as does the signing of promising Ecuadorian striker Andrade from Espoli Cayambe. They’ve also picked up Argentinian midfielder Ledesma from Racing Club Avellaneda, defender Castro from El Nacional Quito, and Barcelona Guayaquil duo Cevallos in defence and Gonzales in midfield and although there’s a lot of changes in their team, they do look stronger for it. The old Cuenca would defend a 1-0 lead as long as possible but this Cuenca side attacks and tries to score goals. Compare that style with LDU Loja’s all-out-attack style and we really should see goals here, realistically.
I’ve never been an advocate of over 2.5 goals calls in games involving Deportivo Cuenca but the times appear to be changing somewhat in Ecuador. Both games of both of these two sides thus far this season have gone over 2.5 goals due to their attacking displays and over 2.5 goals in this game appeals to me at 4/5 as a result.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Veendam, Granada.
Recommended bets:
No multiple bets appeal to me today, sorry guys!
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Newells Old Boys (8) 2-0
Independiente vs Velez Sarsfield (3) 1-2
Australian A-League:
Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory (6) 2-1
Chilean Primera Division:
Union Espanola vs Santiago Wanderers (5) 1-1
Colombian Primera A:
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Deportes Tolima (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Ecuadorian Primera A:
LDU Loja vs Deportivo Cuenca (5) over 2.5 goals
English League Two:
Burton Albion vs Chesterfield (5) both sides to score
Finnish Liiga Cup:
VPS Vaasa vs Tampere United (6) under 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga 2:
Rot-Weiss Oberhausen vs Paderborn (5)
Union Berlin vs Osnabruck (6)
Augsburg vs MSV Duisburg (5) under 2.5 goals
Italian Serie B:
Atalanta Bergamo vs Siena (6)
Mexican Primera Division:
Necaxa vs America (4) 0-1
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Den Bosch vs AGOVV Appeldoorn (6)
Veendam vs Almere City (8) under 2.5 goals
Cambuur Leeuwarden vs Eindhoven (6) over 2.5 goals
Helmond Sport vs RBC Roosendaal (7)
MVV Maastricht vs RKC Waalwijk (5) both sides to score
Telstar vs Fortuna Sittard (3)
Emmen vs Volendam (5)
Dordrecht ’90 vs Sparta Rotterdam (6)
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Tacuary vs Guarani Asuncion (6) 1-0
3 de Febrero vs Sol de America (7) 2-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Granada vs Albacete (8) under 2.5 goals
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Fenix vs Club Nacional de Montevideo (5) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!