Austria Vienna vs Athletic Club de Bilbao
FreeToday’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League game between Austria Vienna and Athletic Club de Bilbao. Athletic Club de Bilbao will enter this game with confidence following their 3-0 victory over Austria Vienna at the start of the group stages and are just two points away from qualification although they’ll secure that tonight if Austria Vienna and CD Nacional both fail to win. Austria Vienna are on the verge of exit from the competition and their domestic form has started to stutter lately, leaving them looking unconvincing ahead of this game.
Austria Vienna enter this game knowing that a win is a must. If they fail to win this game then they’re out of European competition. It’s purely speculation, of course, but I can’t help feeling that Austria Vienna have started to look stretched due to the pressures of European and domestic football simultaneously. As a result of that, Austria Vienna have only won two of their last five games in all competitions, beating title rivals Sturm Graz 1-0, relegation favourites Austria Karnten 1-0, and losing the Vienna derby 4-1 to Rapid Vienna and suffering an embarassing defeat at newly-promoted Wiener Neustadt and a defeat in the UEFA Europa League at Werder Bremen. Worryingly for Austria Vienna, they’ve conceded ten goals in those five games, averaging two goals conceded per game. This is a particularly dangerous record to possess as they face better opponents who focus entirely on attacking and I expect that to do some damage tonight!
Visitors Athletic Club de Bilbao are virtually back to full-strength in terms of injuries with just Aitor Ocio out with a long-term injury. Athletic Club de Bilbao have left David Lopez, Koikili, and Gaizka Toquero behind for this trip for varying reasons but I don’t class any of those players as essential to the squad, personally. The important players – Yeste, Llorente, Amorebieta, Iraola, Susaeta, Martinez, Iraizoz – have all travelled and will most likely start, which is a great boost for the Basque side. Athletic have demonstrated lately just what a full squad does for them by entering this game on the back of a six-game unbeaten run in all competitions, winning three times and drawing three times, scoring eleven goals in the process. Athletic’s tactics have always been about attacking and not paying much attention to defence which can often do them damage, particularly when out of form, but plays strongly to their advantage when they’re in-form as they are now. A convincing 4-1 win at Almeria at weekend set themselves up perfectly for this game and they know a win will secure them a place in the latter stages of the competition.
Effectively, Austria Vienna enter this game on a bit of a barren run but keep conceding whereas their more illustrious opponents are playing very good football and scoring a lot of goals along the way. With that in mind, it’s hard to look beyond the away win at 10/11. Incidentally, it’s also worth looking at over 2.5 goals at 5/6 as neither side can defend for shit!
Verdict: Athletic Club de Bilbao victory at 10/11 & over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Toulouse vs Partizan Belgrade – lay Toulouse at 9/4.
French side Toulouse are clear favourites for this game but I’m not entirely sure as to why that is. Toulouse have big problems scoring goals, particularly when they’re the favourites to win a game, which is why they rarely manage to do it! Striker Gignac isn’t in form and they’re really missing his goals as they stutter onwards through Ligue 1 and the UEFA Europa League. Toulouse managed to win 3-2 in Belgrade a couple of months ago but were facing a Partizan side that had the onus on them to attack. However, the tables are well and truly turned now with Toulouse needing to win this game against a resilient Partizan Belgrade side that have nothing but pride to play for. Toulouse haven’t won any of their home games in Europe this season, a run which includes defeat at home to Trabzonspor, Shakhtar Donetsk, and a draw with Club Brugge. They only managed to score in one of those games, thus highlighting their problem, a problem I don’t think that they’re capable of resolving anytime soon.
Visitors Partizan Belgrade are out of the UEFA Europa League as they’ve lost all four games. However, let’s take note of a few things about the Serbs here before we jump to conclusions! Partizan Belgrade will never give up whether they have a reason to win the game or not – it’s simply in their mentality. There’s only been one game in the UEFA Europa League this season where they’ve not scored. Interestingly, this means that they’ve now scored the same number of goals as Toulouse have, which should indicate to you that there’s not as much between these two sides as the odds suggest. Partizan Belgrade don’t travel well; I’m not going to hide that fact. However, they enter this game on the back of a massively morale-boosting deby win over Red Star Belgrade and have nothing to lose so it’s wise to consider them as a very difficult opponent tonight.
Although Toulouse would have every right to win this game, I’m going to go against the goal-shy hosts in favour of the lion-hearted, tenacious, Partizan Belgrade. I don’t see why the visitors can’t score in this game but I can’t see how Toulouse will get more than one goal, if indeed any goals, so it seems logical to expect that laying Toulouse at 9/4 could have some real value tonight.
Verdict: Lay Toulouse at 9/4.
PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Prague – home win with -1.75 handicap at 6/4.
After having been held to a 2-2 draw in Prague in their opening group stage game, PSV Eindhoven have gone on to top the group and need just three points to secure qualification to the latter stages of the UEFA Europa League. PSV Eindhoven have won both Europa League games at home in this campaign without conceding a goal and will look to repeat that record against their Czech opponents tonight. PSV haven’t been prolific at home in the Europa League this season but have scored twelve goals in their last three competitive games in the Eredivisie, averaging four goals scored per game, which sets them up well to beat the handicap against their lesser opponents tonight!
Sparta Prague have conceded three goals on the road in the UEFA Europa League group stages in just two games. Whereas that record isn’t particularly condemning, they were facing lesser opponents than the opponents that they face tonight! Sparta will be very happy to take a draw from this game but I just can’t see them doing it against a very in-form and free-scoring PSV Eindhoven. Sparta Prague are a good side but it’s been largely at home both domestically and in Europe this season.
Overall, I think the combination of Sparta Prague’s unconvincing away form and the free-scoring football of a highly-motivated PSV Eindhoven in great form spells out a home win with a -1.75 handicap.
Verdict: PSV Eindhoven to win with a -1.75 goal handicap at 6/4.
Werder Bremen vs CD Nacional – both sides to score at 4/5.
Werder Bremen are set to rest a number of players for this game after the news that they’ve already qualified for the latter stages of the UEFA Europa League. They should still have the edge over their Portuguese opponents tonight but to a lessened extent. It’s worth noting that Werder Bremen have only played one UEFA Europa League game in this game where they’ve not conceded a goal. This is largely attributed to the fact that they cannot defend, simply! How on earth they’re going to defend in this game with a weakened squad is frankly beyond me! Werder Bremen have no motivation for this game and are without key players so they’ll be happy to take whatever they can get out of this game.
For visitors CD Nacional, this game means a awful lot more. They simply have to win this game to have a chance of qualification so they’ve got all the motivation that they need. CD Nacional have scored in every group game, including two at home to Werder Bremen, and will look to repeat that feat against their weakened opponents tonight.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
FK Ventspils vs Hertha HSC Berlin – away win at 10/11.
FK Ventspils have claimed the status of “Europe’s most fortunate team” after having been drawn in this group of out-of-form sides that are all suffering the same problems; they’re not scoring goals. That reason is the only reason that FK Ventspils are still in with a shout of qualification for the latter stages of this competition. Realistically speaking, the Latvian hosts aren’t capable of playing football against any of the sides in this group and it has to show at somepoint! Ventspils are yet to win a game in the Europa League this season and it’s looking increasingly likely that it will occur tonight as they host a rejuvenated Hertha HSC Berlin tonight.
Visitors Hertha BSC Berlin are far from in their best form as they enter this game but they are at least starting to play better football, in my opinion. They won at Heerenveen in Holland a few weeks ago impressively, beating their Dutch hosts 3-2. Since then, Hertha have managed to draw at Stuttgart and lose at home to Koln and Eintracht Frankfurt, disappointingly. However, they are at least starting to score goals again. Truth be told, scoring one goal against FK Ventspils should be more than enough to overcome the defensive-minded Latvians tonight and Hertha are in the perfect position to do so. A win here would give the Germans a great shot at qualification, something which could really kickstart their season.
Although this is without a doubt a dubious bet, there’s no denying that Hertha have the better side and are capable of scoring goals against their lesser opponents despite their poor form. Ventspils would gladly take a draw from this game but I think Hertha have enough to sneak it.
Verdict: Hertha HSC Berlin to win at 10/11.
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Chacarita Juniors -1.75 handicap at 7/5.
This is a real no-brainer! Fair enough – Estudiantes haven’t been playing well lately with just one win in five games, losing three of those encounters. However, Estudiantes remain one of the best sides in the division and are absolutely deadly at home with six wins in eight games, losing just once and averaging over two goals scored per game. Chacarita Juniors won their last game but are amongst the worst sides in the division, something perfectly reflected by their away form of six defeats in eight games. They average conceding two goals per away game too so this game really does seem a no-brainer to me!
Verdict: Estudiantes De La Plata to win with -1.75 handicap at 7/5.
Accumulator of the day – Debreceni VSC, Estudiantes De La Plata, Shakhtar Donetsk, and Athletic Club de Bilbao at 6/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Europa League:
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Club Brugge (7) 2-1
Toulouse vs Partizan Belgrade (4) 0-0
PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Prague (8) -1.75 handicap
FC Copenhagen vs CFR Cluj (8) 2-0
Austria Vienna vs Athletic Club de Bilbao (7) 1-2
Werder Bremen vs CD Nacional (6) 2-1
FK Ventspils vs Hertha HSC Berlin (6) 0-1
Sporting Clube de Lisboa vs Heerenveen (6) 2-1
Fulham vs CSKA Sofia (8) 2-0
AS Roma vs Basel (7) 2-1
Galatasaray vs Panathinaikos (6) 0-0
Dinamo Bucharest vs Sturm Graz (5) 1-1
Argentinian Primera Division:
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Chacarita Juniors (8) -1.75 handicap
Colombian Futbol Profesional – Play-Off:
Atletico Bucaramanaga vs Deportivo Pereira (6) 1-1
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Debreceni VSC vs MTK Budapest (8) over 2.5 goals
Mexican Primera Division:
Morelia vs Cruz Azul (5) 1-1
Monterrey vs Toluca (7) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!