Banfield vs Gimnasia De La Plata
FreeToday’s featured game is the Primera Division encounter in Argentina between Banfield and Gimnasia De La Plata. Primera Division heavyweights Banfield have been somewhat under-achieving so far this season but remain a force to be reckoned with at all times whereas Gimnasia De La Plata barely look a shadow of their former selves and linger near the bottom of the table as a result.
Banfield’s form this season is a bit bizarre, really. Considering that they have arguably the best defence in South America, they’re not doing anywhere near as well as they should be. Their problem is (and always has been) goalscoring as they simply don’t do it enough. The reason? Santiago Silva is no longer with them and they simply don’t have anyone else good enough to replace him. Banfield are still a strong defensive unit but their attacks are a bit easier to deal with nowadays. That said, the only side to win at Banfield this season is Velez Sarsfield in an epic 2-3 victory earlier this week. Banfield still have the capacity to overcome the lesser sides in the division at home but not the ones that are better organised at the back.
Happily, Gimnasia De La Plata do not fall into that category as they’re pretty inept all over the park, in my opinion, which makes them prime targets for misfiring Banfield. They’re the only side in the Primera Division yet to score an away goal which is why they’ve lost five out of six on the road, drawing the other game. Gimnasia’s defence is better than their league placing suggests but I don’t see it being strong enough to contain Banfield – they’ve not managed in their last three games against Banfield, losing their last two trips to Banfield consecutively. Gimnasia finally won a game last match as they overcame newly-promoted Quilmes 1-0, which is one of the few sides they can actually beat. Gimnasia have failed to score in eight out of their last twelve games either at home or away from home and against a very strong Banfield defence, I don’t see their fortune improving tonight.
The question is whether Banfield will score or not, in my opinion. Gimnasia are a tough nut to crack sometimes but I think Banfield should be able to get a goal here and if they do then it really should be enough to see them win the game. It’s interesting to note that in six out of Banfield’s last eight wins against Gimnasia De La Plata, Banfield have won the game without conceding, although ironically most of those games were away from home rather than at home. Either way, the odds on Banfield winning this game without conceding look far too generous to me so that’s my call for this game tonight.
Verdict: Banfield to win to nil at 27/20.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Rot-Weiss Oberhausen – home win at 7/10.
Last season, the hosts could have easily been 1/2 or 1/3 to win a game like this. They’ve had a bad start to their Bundesliga 2 campaign, admittedly, but is 7/10 not a tad long? It seems it to me.
Dusseldorf sold star striker Harnik over the summer, which has naturally damaged them considerably. They’ve brought in replacements (i.e. towering Hungarian striker Torghelle) but none have truly filled the void left by Harnik. However, Dusseldorf have finally started to get their act together lately and have ominously beaten promotion candidates MSV Duisburg and Augsburg respectively in their last two home games without conceding a goal. Dusseldorf’s style is to win without conceding so it’s interesting to see a return to that form finally beckoning. I’m choosing to ignore Dusseldorf’s away form because they never travel well but their home form looks very good indeed and worrying for any sides facing a trip here in the near future.
Dusseldorf’s defence doesn’t look likely to be breached by Rot-Weiss Oberhausen tonight from the strength of Dusseldorf’s defence – we’ve established that already. Now let’s consider that Oberhausen have virtually forgotten what a goal looks like with just one goal scored in their past five games. They’ve lost four of those games as a result and drew the other and it’s hard to envision that record changing against a frankly superior side tonight. Oberhausen have won just once on the road this season and that was against newly-promoted Ingolstadt so they’re hardly adept away from the Stadion Niederrhein. In fact, Oberhausen have lost their last three away games consecutively and that really isn’t a good record to take to Dusseldorf and it’s frankly not a record that I expect to improve in the near future either.
The risk with backing Dusseldorf is whether they score or not. If they score, they do tend to win the game as their defence is the best in the division and that’s what I’m banking on here. Dusseldorf have beaten Oberhausen for two consecutive seasons at home without conceding and given the meager form of their visitors tonight, I fancy Dusseldorf to do the necessary damage to win the game at a rather generous 7/10.
Verdict: Fortuna Dusseldorf to win at 7/10.
Wisla Krakow vs Legia Warsaw – over 2.5 goals at 5/4.
Miraculously, I called an over 2.5 goals game in the Ekstraklasa, which is basically like winning the lottery as it’s so rare! I must be crazy to try yet another but here we go…
Well, these two sides are the heavyweights of Polish football, to be blunt. Forget Lech Poznan – they show up from season to season – but these two are the daddies so expect a hostile game here. Wisla enter this game on the back of a somewhat fortuitous derby victory against Cracovia Krakow thanks to a last-gasp winner whereas Legia enter this game on the back of a comfortable 2-0 win against a good Jagiellonia Bialystok side. It’s interesting to see that both sides are beginning their ascent up the Ekstraklasa table at the same time after respective dismal starts so we should really see an interesting game here. We have another interesting fact, however – Legia manager Skorza used to coach Wisla for a long time and this is his first return to Reymonta since he was dismissed so it’ll be interesting to see what “secrets” he discloses to his players in a game that they frankly have a good chance of winning on statistics alone as they’ve been very strong lately.
The above alone is enough to give me an idea over 2.5 goals, especially as both sides are good enough to contribute to that bet. However, Legia are missing a lot of defenders for this game – Choto, Rzezniczak, Knezovic, and have doubts over Komorowski as he could face disciplinary action for his antics against Jagiellonia Bialystok last match. Indeed, the majority of Wisla’s defenders are carrying knocks too although none are confirmed as absent as of yet.
With the above in mind, I have to feel that over 2.5 goals has a very real chance of coming in here. Both sides really need to be winning this game to climb the table and although I won’t be drawn into the 1×2 market, over 2.5 goals still looks a little generously priced at 5/4 for this game.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/4.
Obolon Kiev vs Metalurg Donetsk – home win with draw no bet at 10/11.
Obolon Kiev look a little too long to win this game, in my opinion. They’re not a great side but they’re a decent home side. Not only that, but Obolon enter this game on the back of a heroic victory at illustrious neighbours Dynamo Kiev, which was a shock to the entirety of Ukrainian football fans for obvious reasons. Obolon’s strong point is that they don’t concede many goals but their problem that stems from that is that they don’t score many either. Nonetheless, they’ve bagged in their last four games consecutively, winning twice, drawing once, and losing just once at a good Metalist Kharkiv side. Obolon overcame Tavriya Simferopol along the way so they’re demonstrating their strength quite regularly now and also bring a lot of momentum into this game so it’s interesting to give them a chance today. It’s also interesting to note that Obolon overcame Metalurg Donetsk here last year via a 2-1 scoreline.
Visitors Metalurg Donetsk have seldom looked more troubled than they do right now, which naturally assists my tip. I have to be honest and say that I just don’t know what is up with the top five club but they’re being beaten so easily that it’s unreal. Metalurg have never been a prolific side but they’re generally very hard to score against but that’s simply not been the case lately. They’ve not won in seven consecutive games in all competitions, losing their last five games consecutively. I’m not sure what is more concerning for the Donetsk club – the fact that they’ve scored just twice in those five games or the fact that they’ve uncharacteristically leaked twelve goals along the way. They’ve lost to some terrible sides too, sides that they should be beating easily i.e. Volyn Lutsk, Illichivets Mariupol. Three of those five defeats have come at home and they’ve not scored in any of those three home defeats despite two of those sides being largely inferior to Metalurg Donetsk. Metalurg Donetsk simply look bereft of confidence and clueless tactically and they’re being battered from all sides as a result and I don’t expect that to change tonight given the consistency of their terrible run.
I’m using draw no bet cover here because Metalurg Donetsk remain a better side than Obolon Kiev. However, Obolon are playing well and scoring goals and Metalurg are not playing well and are conceding goals for fun so I’d be surprised to see a watertight Obolon side lose this game today. Will they win the game? I think there’s a better chance of it occurring than the bookies do so my call is the home win with draw no bet at 10/11.
Verdict: Obolon Kiev to win with draw no bet at 10/11.
Accumulator fodder:
Austria Lustenau, Admira Wacker, Zwolle, Otelul Galati.
Recommended bets:
Fortuna Dusseldorf, Otelul Galati, and Zwolle at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Huracan vs Colon de Santa Fe (6) 1-1
Banfield vs Gimnasia De La Plata (7) 1-0
Australian A-League:
Gold Coast United vs Sydney FC (5) 0-0
Austrian Liga 1:
Gratkorn vs St.Polten (5)
Austria Lustenau vs Grodig (8)
Admira Wacker vs WAC/St.Andra (8) over 2.5 goals
First Vienna vs Lustenau (6) over 2.5 goals
Chilean Primera Division:
Universidad Catolica vs Huachipato (7) 1-0
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slavia Prague vs Banik Ostrava (6) 1-1
English Championship:
Preston North End vs Hull City (5) over 2.5 goals
French Ligue 2:
Angers SCO vs Nantes (5)
Boulogne vs Metz (6) under 2.5 goals
Clermont Foot vs Chateauroux (5)
Dijon FCO vs Reims (6)
Grenoble Foot vs Tours (5)
Istres vs Vannes OC (5)
Le Havre vs Stade Lavallois (6)
Nimes vs Troyes (5)
Le Mans vs Evian Thonon Gaillard (6)
German Bundesliga:
BV09 Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
German Bundesliga 2:
Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Rot-Weiss Oberhausen (6)
Karlsruher SC vs Erzebirge Aue (5)
Greuther Furth vs Augsburg (4) over 2.5 goals
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
MTK Budapest vs Lombard Papa (5) 1-1
Gyori ETO FC vs Fehervar (6) 1-1
Mexican Primera Division:
Necaxa vs Pachuca (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Dutch Eredivisie:
Willem II vs De Graafschap (3) over 2.5 goals
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Helmond Sport vs RKC Waalwijk (4) draw no bet
Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard (9) -1.5 handicap
MVV Maastricht vs Almere City (6) over 2.5 goals
Cambuur Leeuwarden vs Sparta Rotterdam (6)
Den Bosch vs Volendam (6)
Norwegian Eliteserien Promotion Play-Off:
Fredrikstad vs Lov-Ham Bergen (7)
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Rubio Nu vs Nacional Asuncion (6) 1-1
Olimpia Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno (6) 2-1
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Widzew Lodz vs Cracovia Krakow (6) 1-1
Wisla Krakow vs Legia Warsaw (4) over 2.5 goals
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
CD Nacional de Madeira vs Maritimo Funchal (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Romanian Liga:
Otelul Galati vs Victoria Branesti (8) 2-0
Vaslui vs Astra Ploiesti (7) 2-1
Russian Premier League:
Saturn Moscow Oblast vs Amkar Perm (6) 1-0
Singaporean S-League:
Beijing Guoan vs Sengkang Punggol (5) 2-1
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
DAC Dunajska Streda vs Spartak Trnava (6) 1-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Villarreal II vs Numancia (4)
Turkish Super Lig:
Konyaspor vs Kayserispor (6) 1-2
Ukrainian Premier League:
Obolon Kiev vs Metalurg Donetsk (5) 1-0, draw no bet
Welsh Premier League:
Bala Town vs The New Saints (6) 0-1
Carmarthen Town vs Port Talbot Town (6) 2-1
Neath Athletic vs Haverfordwest County (6) 1-0
Prestatyn Town vs Newtown (5) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!