BATE Borisov vs Dinamo Minsk
FreeEdit: Yes, yes, I am a complete moron and set this post to post for the day after today, hence the late update so apologies guys! That said, who could complain at staring at the somewhat excellent tip of Young Boys Bern to win at Basel at 2/1?? I hope you were all profitable from your bets on this game!
Anyway, today’s featured game is in the Vysshaya Liga and features champions BATE Borisov and title challengers Dinamo Minsk. The visitors are ten points behind the champions currently and stand little chance of catching them, in my opinion. Dinamo Minsk were once the bigger of these two sides but a few years can change a lot of things. BATE Borisov currently boast the best home record in the division with six wins, one draw and just one defeat from their eight home games. They average over two goals per game at home and concede every other game on average when at home too. Dinamo Minsk have a quite remarkable away record that I’m not entirely sure what I should make of. They’ve played eight away games this season, only losing once but only winning twice. They’ve scored four times and only conceded three times on the road, which is the really strange part. I know they’re a good side but that record is still odd. However, they’re going to have to endanger that record to have any chance at all of taking the Vysshaya Liga crown from BATE Borisov and attacking this side is always a dangerous move. The hosts have ripped apart bigger and better sides than Dinamo Minsk at home before now and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them do it today. Interestingly, BATE Borisov have beaten Dinamo Minsk three times out of the last four meetings between these two sides, winning both home games over the last two seasons without even conceding a goal. If you add that to the fact that the hosts are considerably better than the visitors, then odds of 10/11 start to look pretty damn amazing, I’m sure you’ll agree!
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
BATE Borisov vs Dinamo Minsk – home win at 10/11 – see introduction for full details.
Aris vs APEP – home win at 5/6. It’s the first game of the season for both of these clubs and I expect both to be battling to avoid relegation this year. Newly-promoted Aris (not to be confused with Aris Salonika of Greece) had the best home record in their division last year, something I don’t expect them to readily part with, particularly against a side they know they can beat and frankly must beat. The visitors had a tough campaign last year and I see little signs that they’re ready to change that this year. For those reasons, I’m going to call a narrow home win for the eager Aris as they seek to make an impression and get off to a winning start whilst the visitors grapple with a feeling they’ll know all too well – losing. Odds of 5/6 on the home win are a little lower than I’d anticipated but there’s still value in it.
Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Prague – away win at 13/10. This is a risky
call but Sigma Olomouc’s four game winless run tells me they’re not at their best. They had a tough game with Everton mid-week where they gained a credible 1-1 draw but ultimately crashed out of the UEFA Europa League 5-2 on aggregate. Sigma Olomouc worked hard in the game to get the result they achieved and will be feeling that tiredness today. Unfortunately, giants Sparta Prague are not the kind of side you can simply “endure” in this situation – they need to be matched or they will beat you, simply. Sparta Prague also competed mid-week but had a decidedly easier game as they cantered past Maribor of Slovenia 3-0 on aggregate. Despite a slow start from Sparta Prague, they’re beginning to show their typically efficient manner with two consecutive wins and by remaining unbeaten in all five games this season. They’ve not really hit the goal-trail properly yet but nor have the hosts so it should be a quite tight affair in that sense. However, here’s a statistic that might just get you on board the Ian ship – Sparta Prague haven’t lost away to Sigma Olomouc since 1998! Sparta Prague have lost a couple of times at home to today’s hosts but not away for eleven years! They’ve won here four times out of their last five visits and the hosts haven’t scored against Sparta Prague here in their last three attempts. All this lovely statistical analysis points to one profitable away win at 13/10 although it may also be worth playing the under 2.5 goals card.
Silkeborg vs OB Odense – away win at 4/5. Despite a relvatively inconclusive start to life in the Superligaen, Silkeborg have shown that they’re more than capable of being a handful if your players aren’t motivated for the game. Unfortunately for the hosts, simply “being a handful” doesn’t necessarily guarantee you points, something they’ve discovered the hard way. They’ve not won in four games now, drawing twice and losing twice. Unfortunately for Silkeborg, however, they’re hosting a very much motivated OB Odense that enter this game unbeaten in their opening six games and on the back of three consecutive victories. The visitors today seem to get stronger each time I see them and I can’t even see the valour of Silkeborg being too much of a problem for them today. An away win at 4/5 looks to be a very good bet indeed.
Newcastle United vs Leicester City – home win at 3/4. I’m not entirely sure how, but this Newcastle United team that are in complete disarray and are without a fixed manager are performing really well in the Championship! Still, we’re not here to question why but simply to locate the profit and obtain it. Today they face newly-promoted Leicester City. The visitors have drawn praise from various sectors for their dogged displays tinted with glimpses of potential and efficient goalscoring. Unfortunately for the visitors, they were brought back down to earth with a bang last week on a difficult night at Preston North End in the League Cup, losing 2-1. The visitors may have been a little unlucky to have not had a penalty given in their favour in this game but it was a taste of how harsh the Championship can be. They’ve also got the additional issue strikers, being as they’re short on them due to injuries. Those factors combined whilst looking at the home side’s impressive form tells me that a home win is coming and is worth taking at 3/4 whilst those odds last.
Amkar Perm vs Spartak Nalchik – home win at evens. This is a dubious call but one I quite like the look of. Despite the atrocious league form of both sides, it’s more than obvious that Amkar Perm have got the upper hand here. They’re at home, a place that most sides struggle to come and play at. They’re hosting a side that has one of the worst away records in the league, having lost seven of ten away games, drawing the other three. Their goalscoring on the road is beyond rare which is a shame because they’re not that bad when it comes to keeping sides out. Amkar Perm had a break from the Russian Premier League this week as they entertained England’s Fulham in the UEFA Europa League. Although it turned out to be redundant, Amkar Perm managed to win 1-0, a result that will have salvaged some pride for the hosts and give them a bit of momentum and belief. I honestly feel that’s all they need to go on a good run and get away from the relegation zone and they couldn’t have a more perfect game, to be frank. Make no mistake, both of these sides need three points and will be going all out to obtain them. For those reasons, I recommend staying away from the over/under bets. However, I do think the hosts have gained enough momentum from victory over Fulham to take into this game and overcome Spartak Nalchik. I’m surprised that odds on the home win are evens but I’m prepared to ride it!
Vityaz Podolsk vs Volga Nyzhnyi Novgorod – away win at 15/8. Away wins in Russia’s Division 1 are some of the hardest you ever have to call but I think I’ve got a good case for one today. Despite daunting home form, Vityaz Podolsk have struggled to find any kind of form lately, losing three times consecutively. Today’s visitors, Volga Nyznhyi Novgorod, are flying, however! They’ve now gone nine games without defeat, winning six of them. Their foundation for such a run has to be their watertight defence as they’ve conceded just one goal in their past six games. I’m extremely impressed with today’s visitors and I think they’ve got enough in reserve to overcome an out-of-sorts Vityaz Podolsk and it’s certainly worth a flutter at 15/8.
GAIS Goteborg vs Djurgardens – home win at 10/11. I’m not a big advocate of GAIS Goteborg. In fact, I think they’re pretty damn poor! However, they have now won two games on the bounce in a desperate bid to escape the drop zone. The most convincing statistic I can offer you for this game is that Djurgardens are the undisputed worst away side in the Allsvenskan, losing nine games from their ten away games, drawing the other. They average conceding a horrendous three goals per game and don’t even manage to score every other game on the road on average. GAIS Goteborg don’t exactly possess a home fortress but they’ve got more than enough about them to overcome a very poor Djurgardens. I do recommend approaching this game with some caution as 0-0 is a possibility but ultimately a home win is on the cards so odds of 10/11 could prove to be worthwhile.
As ever, any questions/explanations required, feel free to email me at thefootytipster@gmail.com. For the complete picks listing, see below!
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
BATE Borisov vs Dinamo Minsk (8) 2-0
Bosnia-Herzegovina Premijer Liga:
FK Sarajevo vs Travnik (6)
Cypriot Division 1:
Aris vs APEP (6) 2-1
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Sigma Olomouc vs Sparta Prague (7) 0-1
Slavia Prague vs Slovacko (8) 2-0
Brno vs Teplice (6) 1-1
Danish Superligaen:
Silkeborg vs OB Odense (7) 1-2
English Championship:
Peterborough United vs Crystal Palace (7)
Newcastle United vs Leicester City (8)
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
EB/Streymur vs NSI Runavik (8) over 2.5 goals
French Ligue 2:
Brest vs Nantes (6)
Icelandic Landsbankadeild Karla:
Throttur Reykjavik vs FH Hafnarfjordur (8) 1-2
Stjarnan Gardabaer vs Breidablik Kopavogur (4) 0-0
UMF Grindavik vs Fylkir Reykjavik (7) 1-2
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv vs Maccabi Ahi Nazareth (7) 2-0
Bnei Sakhnin vs Beitar Jerusalem (6) 1-2
Italian Serie B:
Torino vs Empoli (7)
Norwegian Tippeligaen:
Lillestrom vs Stabaek (6) 1-2
Rosenborg BK vs Lyn Oslo (8) 3-1
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
CD Nacional vs Olhanenese (8) 2-0
SL Benfica vs Vitoria Setubal (8) 2-1
Russian Premier League:
Amkar Perm vs Spartak Nalchik (7) 2-0
Russian Division 1:
NoSta Novotroitsk vs KamAZ Nab Chelny (6)
Vityaz Podolsk vs Volga Nyzhnyi Novgorod (8)
FK Nizhnyi Novgorod vs Sibir Novosibirsk (6)
Salyut Belgorod vs Luch-Energiya Vladivostok (7)
FK Krasnodor vs Volgar Gazprom Astrakhan (7)
Metallurg Lipetsk vs Energiya Khabarovsk (4)
Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast (8)
Cherno Novorosisk vs Anzhi Makhachkala (8)
Baltika Kaliningrad vs FK Chita (7)
Spanish Primera Liga:
Barcelona vs Sporting Gijon (9) -1.75 handicap
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Orebro vs Gefle (7) 0-0
GAIS Goteborg vs Djurgardens (7) 2-1
Brommapojkarna vs Orgryte (6) 1-0
Malmo vs Helsingborgs (8) 1-1
Swiss Super League:
Grasshoppers Zurich vs Neuchatel Xamax (7) 2-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Vaduz vs Lausanne Sports (7)
Turkish Super Lig:
Ankaraspor vs Galatasaray (8) 1-2
Ukrainian Premier League:
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Zorya Lugansk (8) -1.75 handicap
Dynamo Kiev vs Metalurg Donetsk (8) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!