BATE Borisov vs FC Minsk
FreeToday’s featured game is interestingly not a World Cup game, but the Belarusian Vysshaya Liga game between BATE Borisov and FC Minsk. Well, I am here to cater for value rather than public demand, after all! Reigning champions BATE Borisov are in irresistable form and are hosting unlikely title hopefuls FC Minsk today in a game which could end the title challenge of their opponents before it’s even began.
BATE Borisov have now played thirteen Vysshaya Liga games without conceding a goal, winning nine times and drawing five times. They’ve won four out of their last five games and won at in-form Belshina last match to stamp their authority on the division that they effectively own nowadays after four consecutive titles. BATE have won five out of six home games whilst averaging scoring over two goals per game so it’s safe to say that this is the most difficult trip to make in Belarus currently. BATE haven’t conceded in their last five games against FC Minsk and have won four of those games, winning their only two matches at home during that time. BATE are the best side in Belarus, to be blunt, and the bookies are normally aware of that with the average price on a home win for BATE being 1/4 or 1/3. Why they’ve not taken advantage of that factor today when BATE host FC Minsk is beyond me because FC Minsk are very much the average Belarusian side that are over-achieving in the early stages of the season. BATE are twice the side that their opponents are and have a great platform with which to show it today.
Visitors FC Minsk enter this game on the back of a demoralising but expected home defeat against illustrious rivals Dinamo Minsk, losing 2-0 and they even suffered the embarrassment of having midfielder Sachivko dismissed, who will miss this game today as a result. FC Minsk generally have good away form because they’re one of the more potent away sides in the division but defeat last match is going to have hurt them and they’re unfortunately making the hardest possible trip following that hammer-blow; the away trip to face BATE Borisov. FC Minsk are no idiots but they’re out of their league against the likes of BATE Borisov; they’re not good enough to take them on. The only thing in their favour is that BATE have occasionally been found lacking in front of goal this season and if that happens then they could take a 0-0 draw from this game but ultimately I expect them to lose this game, barring a miracle.
As I touched upon briefly earlier on – I don’t know why the bookies haven’t shortened these odds. BATE shouldn’t be longer than 2/5 for this game because of the massive quality advantage they have but the bookies apparently only take an interest in the goings-on in the present Vysshaya Liga table, which would indicate that the two are close rivals. Wrong! I’ll be surprised if BATE Borisov don’t win this one and it’s actually good value on a home win because of the longer-than-expected odds, either as accumulator fodder or even as a single.
Verdict: BATE Borisov to win at 6/10.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Algeria vs Slovenia – Slovenia to win at 5/4.
I can’t preview this game more than by saying that Slovenia are the better side. Slovenia always have goals in them as they’ve proved by scoring in nine consecutive games and they showed it last match by overcoming a New Zealand side that are strong in defence 3-1. They’re still quite young and have a lot to learn but whilst you score goals, you have a good chance of winning games. The only consistency that Algeria have executed during their World Cup warm-up matches is their ability to concede, leaking three goals against Serbia and three goals against Republic of Ireland before eventually claiming a narrow victory over United Arab Emirates to give them some confidence to take into the World Cup. Algeria are quite a quick side and are good on the break but their atypical tactical strength within the confinements of African football is nowhere near as evident outside of it so I expect them to leak a lot of goals in this tournament, starting today.
Ultimately, 5/4 is a good set of odds to back Slovenia to beat an inferior side that cannot defend and it’s also worth looking at over 2.5 goals if you can find decent odds for it.
Verdict: Slovenia to win at 5/4.
Serbia vs Ghana – both sides to score at 11/10.
As I mentioned in my lengthy preview on thursday, Serbia are conceding too many goals at the moment and always appear to have massive problems dealing with the directness and the athleticism of African sides. Examples of this were Serbia’s home win against Cameroon last week as they won 4-3 and their 3-2 defeat against Ivory Coast in the last World Cup. Serbia are strong physically against European sides but against African sides they really struggle as their strength advantage can sometimes be matched. African sides don’t tend to defend well, particularly against height, which is something that Serbia have in abundance, so the result tends to be a goal-fest. I’d like to back Serbia for this game with some kind of confidence but the fact is that their friendly displays have left me cold and if they can’t defend well then they lose their biggest advantage so I’ve real concerns for them here. Ghana are no great side but the pace of someone like Gyan, for example, will cause mayhem at the back for Serbia so I can see both sides scoring today and that has to be worth a shot at 11/10.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 11/10.
Germany vs Australia – Germany to win to nil at 13/10.
I wanted to go under 2.5 goals on this one but I’m not touching it at 8/11. However, this call looks equally as interesting as Australia have looked surprisingly impotent of late despite scoring four goals in their last three games. They were fortunate to score two past New Zealand and edged goals against USA and Denmark respectively so I’m really not convinced by them. I normally rate Australia quite highly in terms of their ability to frustrate opponents and nick goals but they were terrible defensively against USA and were largely outplayed by New Zealand so I can’t see them faring well against a good German side tonight. Don’t get me wrong – the Germans haven’t convinced me yet but they’re still a better side and I expect them to score in typical German fashion. Although the German defence is questionable at times, it’s not as questionable as the Australian attack so my verdict on this game is a low-scoring win for Germany and backing them to win to nil at 13/10 looks intriguing as a result.
Verdict: Germany to win to nil at 13/10.
Dinamo Brest vs Belshina – home win at 7/5.
Risky, but worth a shot. Belshina have been taught two heavy football lessons lately by the giants of Belarus – BATE Borisov and Dinamo Minsk respectively – and now face one of the stronger home sides in the country. Belshina have previously dealt quite well with trips like this so far this season but having leaked four goals without reply in their last two games (both defeats) you have to feel that their good run may be gradually coming to an end. Dinamo Brest away is a tough game for any side in this country and they’ve averaged scoring two goals per home game this season despite only winning half of their home games so it’s easy to see their potential masked by some dismal form of late. I’d be more hesitant about backing them had they not won their last match at a tough Torpedo Zhodino side but that victory has given them a platform to build upon so I’ll give them their chances of taking something from this game today, particularly as their talent is scoring goals and Belshina’s talent is keeping sides out rather than scoring themselves. Only BATE Borisov have scored more at home than Dinamo Brest have this season so Belshina’s sturdy but demoralised defence should get a thorough examination today.
I’m not expecting much from the visitors after their last two showings and I’ll give the hosts the benefit of the doubt after a shaky few weeks, particulrly at 7/5 as they shouldn’t be longer than 5/4 for this game.
Verdict: Dinamo Brest to win at 7/5.
KuPS Kuopio vs FC Honka Espoo – home win with draw no bet at 7/5.
KuPS have been phenomenal this season! I’ve told you all before what they’re like when they’re on the crest of a wave – they’re virtually unplayable – and they showed that mid-week by winning at Haka Valkeakoski in the Suomen Cup. KuPS are bafflingly third in the Veikkausliiga table which is testament to their excellent momentum and determination because they’re nowhere near good enough to be there! They’ve won three out of their last four games in all competitions and drew the other game so they’re on a massive momentum burst at the moment which its dangerous to go against in the Veikkausliiga, particularly when the home side have won three out of five games already!
Now there’s no question in anyone’s mind that is worth their salt on the Finnish Veikkausliiga that would say KuPS are anywhere near as good as Honka because they’re not; let’s be blunt here! However, Honka have really struggled away from home this season and I’m hoping to capitalise on that. I just don’t know what it is but away from Espoo, Honka have scored just one goal in four away games, which just isn’t good enough for a supposed title contender. They’ve only leaked three goals during that run, to their credit, but the manner of their defeat last match at newly-promoted AC Oulu was shocking. If they can lose in Oulu then they can certainly lose in the valley of a thousand lakes! Honka’s form is now looking very patchy indeed with no wins or goals in their last three games consecutively so morale is low and the pressure on target man Vuorinen is then heightened, which doesn’t do anyone any good! Ultimtely, I just don’t think Honka have got enough to win here at the moment. They’re without a doubt the better side but they’re not showing it so I’ll be going against them today.
Here’s the fun part; KuPS have never taken a point off Honka in the last two years despite meeting them six times! Therefore, it’s safe to say that this is definitely a risky call. I really wanted to lay the visitors but the bookies have been clever by pricing it at 8/11 – too short for me – so I’ll try KuPS with DNB today as it’s still good value against a Honka side that can’t play on the road yet.
Verdict: KuPS Kuopio to win with draw no bet at 7/5.
Skive vs Thisted – home win at 7/5.
We’ve all been stung by Skive of late after their frankly astonishing burst to push them clear of the relegation zone so I think it’s about time we started backing them!
I can’t escape from the fact that both of these sides are pretty dreadful but I’m basing this call on one thing alone; momentum. Skive, bafflingly, have won three consecutive games thanks to a massive amount of grit and determination and it’s paid huge dividends as they’ve beaten three top sides during that run – Fredericia, Naestved, and even Lyngby – so they’re certainly worthy of your respect today. They don’t know when they’re beaten and any side that can win 4-1 at Lyngby is frankly a threat. They’ve won half of their home games this season and although they’re now clear of relegation, this kind of momentum doesn’t just die so I’ll give them their chances today. Thisted’s season ended prematurely and they’ve now been dragged into the relegation dogfight as a result, which makes this game a tad dangerous to bet on. Nonetheless, they’ve not lost eight out of fourteen on the road this season for no reason – they simply don’t score enough goals. Thisted have lost five out of their last six games, drawing the other game, so momentum is some distance from them currently. They’re not a terrible side but if you don’t score goals then you don’t win games and one thing that Skive are doing at the moment is scoring goals so you have to favour the hosts here today.
This is a risky call between two poor sides but Skive have been inspired of late and I have to back them up on that despite Thisted needing it more, particularly when the odds are as generous as they are.
Verdict: Skive to win at 7/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Shakhtyor Soligorsk, Dinamo Minsk, BATE Borisov, RoPS Rovaniemi, Lyngby, Dinaburg Daugavpils, Levante.
Recommended bets:
Dinamo Minsk, BATE Borisov, and Shakhtyor Soligorsk at 2/1.
Slovenia, RoPS Rovaniemi, and Dinaburg Daugavpils at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
World Cup:
Algeria vs Slovenia (7) 0-2
Serbia vs Ghana (5) 2-1
Germany vs Australia (7) under 2.5 goals
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Shakhtyor Soligorsk vs Torpedo Zhodino (8) under 2.5 goals
Dinamo Brest vs Belshina (6) 1-0
BATE Borisov vs FC Minsk (8) 2-0
Dinamo Minsk vs Neman Grodno (8) under 2.5 goals
Dnepr Mogilev vs Naftan Novopolotsk (5) 0-0
Vitebsk vs Partizan Minsk (4) 0-0
Danish 1st Division:
AC Horsens vs Fyn (6) both sides to score
Kolding vs Fredericia (7)
Braband vs Lyngby (9)
Vejle vs Frem (5) under 2.5 goals
Viborg vs AB Copenhagen (4)
Vestjaelland vs Naestved (6)
Skive vs Thisted (7)
Hvidovre vs Roskilde (4)
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Manta vs Espoli Cayambe (7) 1-1
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
B68 Toftir vs B36 Torshavn (5) 2-2
B71 Sandur vs AB Argir (7) over 2.5 goals
HB Torshavn vs Vikingur Gotu (7) over 3.5 goals
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
KuPS Kuopio vs FC Honka Espoo (6) 1-0
IFK Mariehamn vs Haka Valkeakoski (7) 1-1
HJK Helsinki vs MyPa Anjalankoski (7) under 2.5 goals
Finnish Ykkonen:
RoPS Rovaniemi vs TPV Tampere (9) -1.75 handicap
KPV Kokkola vs PS Kemi Kings (5)
Viikingit Helsinki vs PoPa Pori (6)
Espoo vs MP Mikkeli (6)
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Fylkir Reykjavik (5) 2-1
Italian Serie B Play-Offs:
Torino vs Brescia (6)
Latvian Virsliga:
Dinaburg Daugavpils vs Jelgava (8) 2-0
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Atletas vs Tauras Taurage (7) 1-2
Zalgiris Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole (6) 0-1
Singaporean S-League:
Woodlands Wellington vs Geylang United (6) 1-2
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Albacete vs Girona (6)
Recreativo de Huelva vs Cartagena (5)
Hercules Alicante vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (7) under 2.5 goals
Cordoba vs Real Union Club de Irun (4)
Levante vs Castellon (9) -1.75 handicap
Salamanca vs Real Betis Balompie (6)
Huesca vs Cadiz (6)
Real Sociedad vs Celta de Vigo (7)
Gimnastic de Tarragona vs Elche (6)
Real Murcia vs Las Palmas (5)
Swedish Superettan:
Syrianska Sodertalje vs Assyriska Sodertalje (6) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Enjoy your free betting tips!