BATE Borisov vs FH Hafnarfjordur
FreeToday’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League Qualifier in Belarus between reigning Vysshaya Liga champions BATE Borisov and reigning Urvalsdeild champions FH Hafnarfjordur. Both sides are vastly experienced in European competition over the past few years so I’m expecting a good game of football today based on that reasoning alone.
However, my concern is that BATE are simply too strong for FH. We’ve already seen Torpedo Zhodino effectively destroy Fylkir Reykjavik in European competition this year despite the Belarusian side being in the pits of despair morale-wise and not scoring goals as a result. Despite that, Torpedo smashed three goals past a Fylkir side that I consider to be amongst the top four sides in Iceland, which proved decisive in the tie. They’re two different sides to today’s two sides and it was a different competition but there’s still information to take from such an occurrance.
Since BATE Borisov burst onto the European Champions League scene back in 2007, there have only been two home games where they’ve not actually scored, which were forgivably at home to Real Madrid and Zenit St.Petersburg. In that time, BATE have managed to score two against Juventus, Anderlecht, Steaua Bucharest, and even FH’s title rivals Valur Reykjavik, just to name a few. BATE are very much an accomplished side in European competition due to their financial backing and they should remain there for some time to come. They’re solid defensively and clinical in front of goal which is why the odds are so short on the home win because frankly they’re by far the better side.
Visitors FH are a side that you all know I hold in high esteem but I fear they’re going to be outclassed today. They’re facing a much better side than they’re capable of dealing with and haven’t started well domestically this season. FH have always had problems scoring goals away from home in the European Champions League and given their woeful domestic form this season, I think we’ll see more of the same, particularly against a strong BATE Borisov side that don’t like to concede goals. Ironically, the last side that FH didn’t lose to away from home was BATE Borisov back in 2007. However, times have changed enough for me to be convinced that FH cannot defend at the moment and BATE Borisov are looking untouchable so you have to favour the hosts today.
I see a clear advantage for the hosts not only with home advantage but also with their superior quality. FH aren’t what they were whereas BATE have maintained a similar standard but with more experience. I don’t envision any other result than a home win today and I think that BATE should really ease to victory here, particularly with the growing class difference between the two leagues. For me, the odds on the handicap should be shorter than they are so there should be some value in backing BATE -1.75 today.
Verdict: BATE Borisov to beat the -1.75 goal handicap at 17/20.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Ekranas Panevezys vs HJK Helsinki – home win at 13/10.
Risky, but worth a punt. Vetra of Lithuania eased past HJK last year in the Europa Leaguel, which was a surprise at the time but has began to make sense now. Finnish football is improving domestically but not on the European scene yet. HJK’s form this season has been rather deceptive, in my eyes – they’re not at the top of their game, they’re conceding too easily, and they’re not penetrating solid defences. All of those characteristics tend to be displayed during their European campaigns, however, which is what I’m banking on today. Ekranas don’t have a favourable record in European competition but one thing they always bring to their games is goals, something which HJK often lack in European competition. I should point out that HJK won at Vetra last year before being crushed at home so do approach with caution here. However, Ekranas are just as good (if not better!) than Vetra so they’re certainly capable of emulating them. Both sides are mid-season but only one of those sides is looking like the champions that they are and that’s Ekranas. For me, this should be a narrow home win and there’s value in the odds on that basis.
Verdict: Ekranas Panevezys to win at 13/10.
Linfield vs Rosenborg BK – draw half-time/away win full-time at 29/10.
I’ve spoken before of Irish/Northern Irish tenacity and I expect that to show today, hence the selection. Linfield are no match for Rosenborg on paper but Rosenborg’s hindrance is not scoring enough goals, something which Linfield can counter with their dogged tenacity. Rosenborg have the champions’ mentality – they’ve been in European competition for many years now – so I do expect them to win today against an inferior side. However, Rosenborg prefer to defend and counter-attack away from home, something that they’re not always clinical enough doing so they may just get a surprise from a vigilant Linfield today. I think Rosenborg will win the game but I don’t see them having it all their own way here so the draw at half-time/away win at full-time bet could be good value today.
Verdict: Draw at half-time/Rosenborg BK to win by full-time at 29/10.
Viikingit Helsinki vs FC Espoo – home win at 4/5.
The odds are a tad shorter than I’d like on this but Viikingit could be a bit shorter, in all honesty. FC Espoo have performed above their ability level all season and are now beginning a gradual descent. They’ve lost two consecutive games against an excellent RoPS Rovaniemi and an impotent Jippo Joensuu so FC Espoo are starting to lose their way. Morale is lowering and whereas they’re not a side that will ever give up, the fact is that quality is not on their side in the Ykkonen – yet. However, slow starters Viikingit certainly do have quality on their side and their form is beginning to show it. I was a little disappointed by their draw at OPS Oulu last match but away wins in the Ykkonen are difficult to call. The fact remains, however, that Viikingit have won four out of their last five games and scored an awful lot of goals along the way. They’re one of the better sides in this division and have now played four consecutive home games without defeat, winning their last two consecutively in emphatic fashion against a talented PoPa Pori side and doggedly against a strong KooTeePee side. Viikingit are the good side here; FC Espoo are the over-achievers. This game has “home win” written all over it in my eyes so it should be worth a shot today, although I had hoped the bookies would naively price it at evens, if I’m honest!
Verdict: Viikingit Helsinki to win at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
BATE Borisov, Rosenborg BK, Partizan Belgrade, Gremio.
Recommended bets:
BATE Borisov -1.75, Rosenborg BK, and Sheriff Tiraspol at 2/1
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
UEFA Champions League Qualifiers:
Aktobe Lento vs Olimpi Rustavi (6) 2-0
BATE Borisov vs FH Hafnarfjordur (8) -1.75 handicap
Ekranas Panevezys vs HJK Helsinki (6) 2-1
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Dinamo Tirana (7) 2-0
Partizan Belgrade vs Pyunik Yerevan (8) 2-1
Linfield vs Rosenborg BK (8) 0-1
Brazilian Serie A:
Gremio vs Vitoria (8) 2-0
Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio (5) 0-0
Sao Paulo vs Avai (7) over 2.5 goals
Flamengo vs Botafogo (7) over 2.5 goals
Guarani vs Internacional (6) 1-1
Goias vs Vasco da Gama (5) 2-1
Ceara vs Corinthians (6) 1-1
Finnish Ykkonen:
Viikingit Helsinki vs FC Espoo (7)
Singaporean S-League:
Gombak United vs Geylang United (6) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!