Betting on the Underdog: When Should You Do it?

In most matches, regardless of competition, there will be a team that is much more fancied to get a result than their opponent. Sometimes, this team looks so strong on paper that it’s silly to consider the underdogs causing an upset. Still, it is impossible for many to ignore those lucrative long odds and the satisfaction of predicting a shocking result, so some can be convinced to take a punt on the weaker team. Of course, the majority of the time, the favorite does indeed win, and you’re left short of money and a little embarrassed to the point where you swear to never back an underdog again. 

However, this approach may not actually be wise as there are indeed circumstances where backing the team less fancied could actually be the best option. Not every team will enjoy the success of Arsenal’s 2003-2004 season; they have to lose sometime. Shock results happen all the time, and as a football better, you need to learn of the factors that could indicate when one is coming. 

Here is everything you should consider before putting money on the underdog causing an upset. 

Fixture Congestion

The 2020/21 Premier League season has already thrown up some bizarre results that you would not expect to see in a normal campaign. The reason for this can be attributed to a more jam-packed and congested calendar, especially for stronger teams who will have to navigate European competitions on weeknights and cup runs too. 

This means that many top clubs will have players who might be extremely fatigued and lacking sharpness, which can be exploited by weaker teams and gamblers online betting on them. So before backing the underdog in a match, compare how spread out their recent fixtures have been with their opponents. The stronger side may have to have played an extra game, meaning that they may be forced to rotate the squad, resulting in a weaker starting eleven or tired regulars, which could make the game more competitive. 

Home or Away

For whatever reason, be it psychological or physical, teams always seem to perform better when they’re playing at home. This could be because they don’t have to travel as far, have the majority of the support on their side, or because it’s an environment that they’re more comfortable in. 

Regardless of what the reason is, the facts are that teams have an increased chance of winning when they play at home, which means that if your underdog is welcoming a tough side, there’s an improved chance that they could still sneak away with the result. 

‘Bogey’ Teams 

Each club has a ‘bogey’ team, which is a term used to describe an opponent that the team historically struggles against. This could be down to one team not working well against a certain tactic their opponent deploys, or it could simply be because of the psyche. Regardless, it’s always good to be aware of each team’s bogey team and use that to your advantage when considering to back the underdog, as history seems to have a habit of repeating itself within this wonderful sport.