Birmingham City vs Chelsea
FreeWelcome back to betting, guys! I hope you all had a great Christmas and weren’t too depressed by the tirade of shit occasions that tend to occur around Christmas time by some bizarre quirk of fate!
Today’s featured game is the clash between Birmingham City and Chelsea in the English Premier League. Hosts Birmingham have been on a magnificent run lately which has seen them go nine matches unbeaten, which is a phenomenal record for a newly-promoted side. Visitors Chelsea are top of the Premier League but have looked dubious in recent times with just one win in four games and appear to be struggling.
Did you know that only Chelsea have conceded as few goals at Birmingham have in their respective home games this season. Birmingham have conceded just five goals at home all season, being beaten just twice in nine home games. Birmingham have already won five times at home this season but the fact that they’ve won six out of their last nine games, drawing the other three, also lends them considerable momentum at the present time. Birmingham are very good tactically as you’d expect under a good manager like Alex McGleish. It’ll be interesting to see how he does with a large amount of money now available for him to spend in January too! Either way, one thing you can rely on Birmingham to do is to be solid, work very hard, and most likely not concede a goal. They’ll need all the momentum and tenacity that they possess to take something out of this game today but they’re extremely well-placed to do so.
Visitors Chelsea have looked anything but top of the table material of late with some very unconvincing displays and results. The defeat at Manchester City started the rot and they’ve drawn with Everton and West Ham United since then, only just managing to overcome Portsmouth 2-1 in the only game they’ve won in their last four. I’d actually say that Chelsea are the best side in England currently but that’s not due to their consistency – it’s due to the sides around them faltering even more than they are. Chelsea aren’t playing well enough to beat sides like Birmingham convincingly, in my opinion, so I simply can’t see them doing so.
To make matters worse for the London-based club, they’re missing striker Nicolas Anelka through injury. With Didier Drogba, Michael Essien, Saloman Kalou, and John Mikel Obi all African Nations-bound, Chelsea are beginning to look very stretched indeed. I don’t believe they play well without Essien anyway but with no strikers or holding midfielders to speak of, you have to feel that Chelsea are going to have a very tough game indeed today.
With all of the above in mind, you have to feel that there’s value in laying Chelsea today.
Verdict: Lay Chelsea at 11/8.
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Standard de Liege vs Lokeren – lay Standard de Liege at 17/10.
I don’t know what is happening at Standard de Liege of late but they’re simply not cutting it anymore. Their heads have dropped and their confidence is blown to pieces as they’ve managed just one win in their past eight Eerste Klasse games. Standard are conceding too easily and simply aren’t scoring enough goals to overcome sides. Standard have lost three out of their last four games, drawing the other, and have generally looked very unconvincing indeed. At home this season Standard have won just three times in nine attempts, which simply isn’t good enough for a club of their size and expectations.
Visitors Lokeren are having a season to forget but don’t let that cloud your opinion; they’re still a very capable side. I don’t know why Lokeren aren’t clicking this season but make no mistake – they’re a good side on their day. Although they’ve lost four out of their last five games, a shock 5-0 win at Excelsior Mouscron a couple of games ago will have lifted their momentum considerably despite losing their following game. The win is an example of just what they can do when they put their minds to it so I can only imagine how frustrated Lokeren fans must be by their side’s inconsistency. However, Lokeren have been in this battle all season long and will be used to battling tenaciously by now, something that Standard de Liege clearly aren’t used to at all.
I won’t deny that I’m concerned that Lokeren have lost seven out of nine away games this season but what I will say is that Standard look incapable of beating anyone at the moment and Lokeren will dig their heels in if nothing else. With the above in mind, laying Standard de Liege seems to be the way forward!
Verdict: Lay Standard de Liege at 17/10.
Gillingham vs Brentford – home win at 11/10.
Hosts Gillingham are just one of those sides that win at home and lose away, simply. Only Leeds United have conceded as few goals as Gillingham have this season at home and Gillingham tend to make it count at home too, which is why they’ve won seven out of eleven times at home this season, losing just once. A convincing win at home to bottom club Stockport County last match will boost their confidence considerably and just in time for a game which is something of a derby!
Visitors Brentford have been playing some decent football lately and have been very compact, more importantly. They’ve won twice, drawn once, and lost twice in their last five League One games but there hasn’t been more than a goal scored in any of those games. I can’t honestly say that Brentford are the kind of side with the quality available to them to win games like this but they’ve got a chance of stealing a draw if they continue playing as well defensively as they have been of late. However, Brentford have a large drawback in the sense that they’ve already lost six out of eleven away games this season, winning just twice. Only Tranmere Rovers can equal the dismal goalscoring record on the road that Brentford possess and this does tend to be their downfall when playing away from home.
Although this could be a very close game and should be low-scoring, I think that there’s enough in Gillingham’s favour today to see them win this game.
Verdict: Gillingham to win at 11/10.
Bristol Rovers vs Walsall – home win at evens.
Bristol Rovers have been consistent at home this season with seven wins in eleven home games. They’ve not scored as many goals as they’d have liked to at home this season but they are still grinding out the results. Bristol Rovers have won their last four home games consecutively and have gathered strong momentum from that run too. As they’re poor away from home, it’s hard for Bristol Rovers to gain what I would call “proper momentum” because they tend to win at home and lose away. However, Bristol Rovers clearly know where their strength is and tend to utilise it far more often than not!
Visitors Walsall are on a bit of a downer at the moment with no wins in three games, losing twice and drawing once. Their loss in momentum and confidence lately is one of the main reasons that I’m going against them today because Walsall aren’t that bad a side – they’re just rather consistent in not playing to their potential! Walsall have lost five out of eleven away games this season and look destined to lose another today against a reliable Bristol Rovers side.
Verdict: Bristol Rovers to win at evens.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Accumulator fodder – Cardiff City, Newcastle United, Norwich City, Southampton, Leeds United, Milton Keynes Dons, Notts County, Rotherham United, Celtic, Airbus, The New Saints.
Australian A-League:
Gold Coast United vs Brisbane Roar (6) over 2.5 goals
Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets (4) draw no bet
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Standard de Liege vs Lokeren (4) 0-0
Germinal Beerschot vs Racing Genk (7) under 2.5 goals
Club Brugge vs Cercle Brugge (8) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Excelsior Mouscron vs Kortrijk (7) 0-0
Sint-Truiden vs Mechelen (5) 2-1
Charleroi vs Roeselare (6) 1-1
English Premier League:
Birmingham City vs Chelsea (6) 0-0
Fulham vs Tottenham Hotspur (7) 2-2
West Ham United vs Portsmouth (6) 1-0
Burnley vs Bolton Wanderers (7) 1-1
Manchester City vs Stoke City (6) over 2.5 goals
Sunderland vs Everton (5) 0-1
Wigan Athletic vs Blackburn Rovers (6) 1-0
Liverpool vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (4) 0-0
English Championship:
Watford vs Nottingham Forest (5)
Cardiff City vs Plymouth Argyle (9)
Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town (6)
Queens Park Rangers vs Bristol City (7)
Coventry City vs Doncaster Rovers (6)
Derby County vs Blackpool (6)
Middlesbrough vs Scunthorpe United (5)
Preston North End vs Barnsley (6)
Reading vs Swansea City (4)
Sheffield Wednesday vs Newcastle United (8)
West Bromwich Albion vs Peterborough United (8) over 2.5 goals
Leicester City vs Sheffield United (6)
English League One:
Gillingham vs Brentford (7)
Norwich City vs Millwall (8)
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Leyton Orient (6)
Charlton Athletic vs Swindon Town (7) over 2.5 goals
Southend United vs Colchester United (6)
Bristol Rovers vs Walsall (7)
Carlisle United vs Huddersfield Town (7)
Leeds United vs Hartlepool United (8)
Milton Keynes Dons vs Stockport County (9)
Oldham Athletic vs Tranmere Rovers (5)
Southampton vs Exeter City (8)
Yeovil Town vs Wycombe Wanderers (6)
English League Two:
Aldershot Town vs Barnet (7)
Cheltenham Town vs Bournemouth (6)
Crewe Alexandra vs Rochdale (5)
Lincoln City vs Chesterfield (4)
Morecambe vs Accrington Stanley (7) over 2.5 goals
Northampton Town vs Dagenham & Redbridge (5)
Notts County vs Grimsby Town (8)
Port Vale vs Burton Albion (6)
Rotherham United vs Darlington (9)
Shrewsbury Town vs Macclesfield Town (6)
Torquay United vs Hereford United (6)
Scottish Premier League:
Celtic vs Hamilton Academicals (8) 2-0
Dundee United vs Kilmarnock (7) 2-1
Falkirk vs Hearts (6) 1-1
Motherwell vs St.Johnstone (5) 0-0
St.Mirren vs Aberdeen (8) 1-1
Welsh Premier League:
Aberystwyth Town vs Haverfordwest County (6) 2-1
Airbus vs Newi Cefn Druids (8) 2-0
Caersws vs Newtown (5) 1-2
Carmarthen Town vs Llanelli (7) 0-1
Connah’s Quay Nomads vs Bala Town (6) 1-1
Prestatyn Town vs Rhyl (4) 1-1
Welshpool Town vs The New Saints (8) 0-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!