Blackpool vs Doncaster Rovers
FreeToday’s featured game is the Championship encounter between Blackpool and Doncaster Rovers. Both sides are over-achieving this season but as a result both have a decent chance of achieving a play-off place so this should be a good game today.
Blackpool have been superb at home this season with eleven wins in twenty games, losing just four times. They average scoring two goals per home game and conceding once per home game so they tend to have entertaining home games and usually emerge from them with success due to their reliable potency. Blackpool are on a great run of form following four games without defeat, winning their last three consecutively. They’ve scored an impressive eleven times during those three games and won two on the road, something almost unheard of for Blackpool as they tend to draw their points from their home games. They smashed five goals past a strong Swansea defence a few games ago and pounded four past Scunthorpe in their last match so Blackpool are certainly scoring goals for fun at the moment which helps people to overlook their poor defending throughout. Blackpool have strong momentum because of those results, they’re dynamite at home, and they’re averaging scoring nearly four goals per game currently so Blackpool look good for three points today.
Doncaster Rovers have taken a slight nosedive of late with just one win in their past four games, losing twice along the way. Their last match will have hurt them the most however with defeat coming in the last minute at home to lowly Plymouth Argyle despite Doncaster leading for the majority of the game. Doncaster are keeping sides out relatively well at the moment but they’re just not scoring enough goals so they tend to struggle. This particular issue should be very evident today against a massively potent Blackpool side, which is largely why I can’t see Doncaster taking anything from the game. Doncaster pride themselves on being hard to beat so they won’t lie down for this game but eight defeats in twenty away games in the Championship this season suggests that they tend to lose the majority of their away games so away games are certainly a weakness of theirs.
Doncaster tend to be a reliable side but they’re quite susceptible on the road and Blackpool are strong at home so the signs are looking ominous for them today. They’ve been quite poor of late although no less committed whereas hosts Blackpool have been superb and have scored goals for fun. With the above in mind, it’s hard to fathom why Blackpool aren’t 4/6 for this game but I’m happy to take them at the odds shown as they really should win this one today to continue their promotion aspirations.
Verdict: Blackpool to win at 10/11.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Zulte-Waregem vs AA Gent – away win at 13/10.
This is a risky call and I don’t like going against Zulte-Waregem at home but there’s method in the madness as usual. Zulte-Waregem have lost their first two play-off games whilst conceding eight times and scoring just once. From an outside perspective, you’d think that they’d lost something key to trigger such a dramatic downfall – and you’d be right. They’ve lost playmaker Franck Berrier through injury so their well-organised side now lacks a real sense of creativity. Zulte-Waregem aren’t a one-man team but they’re the kind of side that lose their rhythm when one of their players is out of the side because they’re generally a solid unit and a change in that unit lessens their ability. Losing at Anderlecht is acceptable; losing 6-0 at Anderlecht is not. Losing at home to Sint-Truiden in their last game is very much unacceptable and Zulte-Waregem now look like they’re losing the confidence which has lasted them so well at home already this season. All this because of one player’s absence!
Visitors AA Gent haven’t had great time in the play-offs themselves with an impressive 2-1 win at a compact Kortrijk being followed up by a 3-1 battering dished out at home against Anderlecht. That said, Anderlecht put in arguably the performance of the season during that game and I personally think that no Eerste Klasse side would have withstood that barrage. AA Gent remain a solid side, however, and do play good football so it’s important not to underestimate them. Only Anderlecht won more away games than AA Gent did during the “regular” part of the Eerste Klasse campaign so AA Gent are very much a competent away side, particularly tactically. They average scoring nearly two goals per away game and will want to win this one moreso than normal due to Zulte-Waregem having already done the double over them this season.
Although I don’t like going against Zulte-Waregem at home, their confidence is battered and they’re missing one of their best players so they’re just not producing the goods at the moment. AA Gent are still a very able side, particularly on the road, so I expect them to capitalise on a demoralised Zulte-Waregem tonight at generous odds.
Verdict: AA Gent to win at 13/10.
Slavia Prague vs Bohemians 1905 – home win at 1/2.
I know these odds aren’t good generally speaking but I do believe they’re value in a a sense…
Basically, Slavia Prague should always beat Bohemians 1905 wherever they are. However, Slavia Prague have been very poor lately, so much so that they sacked their manager and replaced him with Cipro. The impact was immediate with Slavia Prague overcoming bitter rivals Sparta Prague 1-0 in the Ondrasovka Cup. That result will have given Slavia Prague a massive momentum boost and they’ll be keen to continue that momentum burst today in order to prepare themselves for the return leg against Sparta in a few days times.
Bohemians 1905 have done well lately with no defeats in their past three games. However, two of those games have been at home and only one was away, which was a dull 0-0 draw with ever goal-shy Ceske Budejovice, so perhaps that record of theirs doesn’t tell the full tale. Bohemians 1905 aren’t a bad side; they’re just a boring side that don’t tend to try to score goals very often. Indeed, no side can match their paltry record of just five goals scored in ten away games this season but to Bohemians 1905’s credit, they have only lost four of those games so their tactics do tend to work on the road. However, they’re going to have their resolute defence tested today by a rejuvenated Slavia Prague so it’ll be interesting to see the outcome.
A rejuvenated Slavia Prague playing at home to Bohemians 1905 should be at least 1/3 in my book so I’m fairly content with 1/2 on the home win. I expect Slavia to continue from their win over Sparta by winning today. I can’t see Bohemians 1905 posing a goal threat so it’s simply a matter of whether Slavia Prague can break them down or not. This may be a game for the in-play option and it’s certainly one to watch to see if Slavia are playing as incisively as they need to to win this game but ultimately there should be value in a Slavia Prague win today.
Verdict: Slavia Prague to win at 1/2.
Teplice vs Banik Ostrava – away win at 21/10.
This is an unbelievably risky call considering how strong Teplice have been at home this season but it’s one I’m going to stick my neck out for. They’ve only lost once at home this season whilst winning seven out of eleven games so why am I going against them? Well, this bet stems largely from Teplice having been unconvincing lately. They fail to convert a good number of their chances and that’s started to look more and more evident as the Gambrinus Liga season winds onwards. Teplice lost at home to Brno four games ago without even scoring and have looked nervous ever since, claiming an arduous and fortunate 2-1 win over Slovacko before drawing 1-1 at Bohemians 1905 and losing their last game at home to Jablonec 3-1 in the Ondrasovka Cup, which is an unthinkable result for them. I just begin to wonder if all things are not as right as they seemed at Teplice and its starting to affect their football as well as their inevitable weariness. Either way, they’re not looking promising ahead of this game so should struggle today.
Banik Ostrava, however, are looking impressive. In fact, they’ve impressed me an awful lot this season with some very efficient but entertaining displays. They’ve not been overly convincing on the road due to a lack of goals scored but to their credit very few sides score against them whilst they’re away from home which is why Banik have only lost three out of ten away games. Banik bounced back well from their bizarre defeat at home to Ceske Budejovice a few games ago by emphatically winning 3-0 at a defensively-sound Bohemians 1905 and by annihlating fallen giants Slavia Prague 3-1 last match. When a side that defends as well as Banik do start scoring an average of three goals per game, the sides around them really need to be concerned, which is the present situation in the Gambrinus Liga, so I quite fancy Banik to cause an upset today.
There’s an interesting record in the head-to-heads that I wasn’t aware of prior to making this pick and that’s the fact that Banik Ostrava have only lost here once in their last four visits whilst winning twice and drawing once – just some food for thought! I can’t see Banik losing this one but given Teplice’s abject defending and finishing of late, you have to feel that the away win could be a sneakily profitable bet today!
Verdict: Banik Ostrava to win at 21/10.
Watford vs West Bromwich Albion – away win at 10/11.
The only sides that take points off West Bromwich Albion are sides that are well-organised defensively, something that Watford certainly are not at the present time. They’re without a win in five games, losing three times along the way. They lost their last home game 3-1 against Crystal Palace, embarassingly, so look likely to struggle against a far better side than Crystal Palace – West Bromwich Albion. Watford have scored in all of their last five games but their atrocious defending has left them with the unenviable record of having conceded ten times during those five games, which is an average of two goals per game, hence their issues. That kind of record is not one you want to possess when entering a game against the most potent side in the division but that’s the task that faces Watford today.
WBA have been as impressive as ever lately with six wins in their past seven games with their only slip-up being a draw at a Reading side that was massively in-form at the time. WBA have averaged scoring two goals per game during that run and have even won at Swansea City, which took a lot as Swansea are strong defensively. Although Newcastle and Cardiff can match WBA, the fact remains that no side has won more away games in the Championship than they have this season. They play goo footbll which is why they score more goals than any other Championship side with an averge of nearly two goals scored per away game. Either way, WBA are looking very strong ahead of this game and should take the initiative against a demoralised Watford today.
Both sides need the points so I expect an open game with plenty of goals. However, Watford are conceding an awful lot of goals at the moment and WBA are scoring a lot as usual so you have to favour the promotion candidates for this game as they’re on fire at the moment and Watford simply don’t look capable of keeping them out. I’m surprised at the generous odds for this selection but I’m definitely ok with them!
Verdict: West Bromwich Albion to win at 10/11.
Shrewsbury Town vs Notts County – away win at evens.
Shrewsbury Town have been strong at home in League Two for a couple of years now so even now I’m hesitant about betting against them on their own ground. However, they’ve already lost five home games in League Two this season and have lost their last five games consecutively whilst scoring just once. They’ve lost two home games during their last five games against Rochdale and Darlington respectively without even scoring a goal. Shrewsbury’s issues are stemming from their inability to convert chances and when even Darlington can win against a side away from home, you know that side has problems! Shrewsbury’s season is now redundant and the players look very demoralised due to recent form so it’s hard to see them making an appearance today.
Notts County, however, are going from strength to strength. They’ve already won eight out of eighteen on the road in League Two this season and boast the best defensive record in the division simultaneously so they’re already looking a threat ahead of this game. They’re unbeaten in eleven games, winning seven times along the way. Notts County smashed five goals past a hapless Bury side in their last match, which impressed me a lot as Bury are a good side despite their dramatic slump in form. Notts haven’t conceded a goal in their past four games and I see no reason as to why they will today against a goal-shy Shrewsbury Town. Notts County were a tad short on goalscoring ability themselves a few games ago but their rampant victory against Bury last match has restored my faith in their attacking ability so I expect Notts to do the business today at what can only be described as very generous odds.
Verdict: Notts County to win at evens.
Start Kristiansand vs Valerenga Oslo – home win at 11/10.
Knut Torum’s Start Kristiansand have really turned a corner this season with some very impressive displays. On paper, one win from three games isn’t a good ratio. However, consider that the two games they didn’t win were hard-fought draws at home to last year’s Tippeligaen runners-up Molde FK and at last year’s Tippeligaen champions Rosenborg BK and you’re suddenly not as dismissive of their form. They beat Sandefjord 2-0 in the opening day of the season but it could have and should have been more as Start dominated from start to finish, if you’ll excuse the pun! The fact remains that Start have their best squad in years and I have high hopes from them on the sly this season.
Visitors Valerenga Oslo are also capable of finishing well this season as they’ve strengthened over the break too. They’re also unbeaten so far this season despite playing some tough games so they really should complete the fixture to make it a very tough afternoon for both sides. Valerenga don’t have a good record here, however, having lost on their last two visits consecutively. Valerenga have started their campaign well but their most notable problem is that they’re not yet scoring enough goals. Although their defence has more than made up for that by being virtually unbreakable, the fact remains that Valerenga are facing a very young, hungry, and potent Start Kristiansand which have already scored six times in three games so Valerenga are going to have to work very hard to take something from this game today.
If a young Start Kristiansand performs to the level that they have been at already this season then I expect them to win this game comfortably. They’ve got a damn good manager and play good football which shows with their high level of potency. Valerenga are strong in defence but have been beaten here for two seasons in a row without putting in a good display attack-wise so I expect a similar outcome today barring a miraculous display from a talented but goal-shy Valerenga.
Verdict: Start Kristiansand to win at 11/10.
Viking Stavanger vs Lillestrom – home win at evens.
Are moneybags Viking Stavanger finally going to force the issue as one of the Eliteserien’s title challengers? If their performances so far this season are anything to go by then yes! They’ve lost two out of three games, that’s true. However, the 2-0 scoreline at Valerenga flattered the hosts as Viking dominated the majority of the game and Viking were always going to struggle to take anything from Stromsgodset’s fortress at Drammen, just like every Eliteserien side. I feel we saw the real Viking Stavanger when they annihlated bitter rivals Brann Bergen 4-0 recently and I expect a similar display today from a very good Viking Stavanger squad that is eager to finally be back amongst Norway’s elite. My only concern for Viking is their lack of a good target man but the return of Erik Nevland in summer should aid that issue considerably so Viking simply have to ride it until then.
Lillestrom have looked good under Henning Berg but his management can only take this limited side so far. Don’t get me wrong – they’re playing well and making a nuisance of themselves as a result but they have a ceiling and I think they’ve finally reached it. Lillestrom are strong at home as their two clear and emphatic wins at home this season have already proven but are still weak on the road as a flattering but comprehensive 3-0 defeat at Aalesunds proved. Lillestrom may have a rather good record at Viking Stavanger but I’ve not seen Viking play as convincingly as they have this season so I have my doubts for a rather fickle Lillestrom ahead of their trip to Stavanger today.
There should be a lot of goals in this game as both sides aren’t scared of finding the net or defending hideously. However, I’m bravely putting my trust into a previously-unreliable Viking Stavanger to maintain their strong home form and beat Henning Berg’s Lillestrom convincingly today.
Verdict: Viking Stavanger to win at evens.
Mjallby Solvesborg vs Gefle – home win at 5/6.
Mjallby Solvesborg have managed to make a real nuisance of themselves already following promotion from the Superettan and are currently unbeaten as a result. Impressively, they’re still yet to concede a goal despite travelling to reigning champions AIK Solna on the opening day of the season so they already have my respect. You could see last season that Mjallby were way too good for the Superettan but I had no idea that they’d have such an impact in the Allsvenskan – I just didn’t think that they had the players to do so. Obviously I reckoned without the irritatingly effective Tobias Grahn in midfield, however, whose antics both amuse and incense me, as they do with the majority of Sweden. Nonetheless, he’s always been a fairly gifted footballer and his style suits the battling style of Mjallby Solvesborg so all power to the newly-promoted side, particularly with two wins from three games already under their belt with one of those coming at an Orebro side that were strong at home last season.
Visitors Gefle tend to use their physical approach to muscle opponents out of their way but that won’t be much use today against Mjallby Solvesborg who certainly aren’t afraid to get their hands dirty, so to speak. Gefle will need to find another way to overcome their resilient hosts and from what I’ve seen of Gefle this season, they’re going to struggle to do that. They’re a strong home side but tend to struggle on the road due to a lack of “Plan B” and a lack of goalscoring. They’ve won at newly-promoted Atvidabergs already this season but I rate Mjallby and their momentum much higher than I do a weak Atvidabergs so this is a very different game indeed. I pay more attention to Gefle’s 3-1 defeat at home to Malmo last match, which whilst acceptable against a giant of Swedish football, remains an embarassing scoreline for a side that is generally good defensively. I fear for Gefle’s survival in the Allsvenskan this season if they lose their strong home advantage and thus their overall effectiveness but that’s the way they’re currently going as we should see today.
There’s very little difference between these two sides other than Mjallby Solvesborg are looking “fresher” than Gefle for obvious reasons with Mjallby looking to make an impression following promotion and Gefle looking a tad weary from their lengthy Allsvenskan battle against relegation. Mjallby simply aren’t conceding so I’ll back them during their “honeymoon period” and Gefle aren’t scoring so we should see a low-scoring affair today. However, with Mjallby playing so well currently it’s hard to overlook the generous odds we’ve been offered for them to win today, odds that I think represent good value.
Verdict: Mjallby Solvesborg to win at 5/6.
Accumulator fodder:
Litex Lovech, Slavia Prague, Lyngby, Newcastle United, Norwich City, Southampton, Northampton Town, SL Benfica, Haverfordwest County, Newtown, Bangor City, Moss, Sogndal.
Recommended bets:
West Bromwich Albion, Newcastle United, Blackpool, and Norwich City at 6/1.
Southampton, Northampton Town, and Notts County at 5/1.
Mjallby Solvesborg, Viking Stavanger, and SL Benfica at 5/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Kortrijk vs Sint-Truiden (6) 2-1
Zulte-Waregem vs AA Gent (5) over 2.5 goals
Belgian Tweede Klasse:
Brussels vs Tienen (6)
Bulgarian A PFG:
Litex Lovech vs Minior Pernik (8) under 2.5 goals
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slavia Prague vs Bohemians 1905 (8) 2-0
Teplice vs Banik Ostrava (5) 0-1
Viktoria Plzen vs Sparta Prague (6) 1-1
Danish Superligaen:
Silkeborg vs Aalborg BK (8) 1-1
SonderjyskE vs Midtylland (7) 0-0
Nordsjaelland vs FC Copenhagen (6) 1-2
OB Odense vs Esbjerg (7) 2-1
Danish 1st Division:
Thisted vs AC Horsens (7)
Roskilde vs Vejle (5)
Hvidovre vs Braband (7)
Skive vs Kolding (6)
AB Copenhagen vs Vestjaelland (6)
Naestved vs Viborg (7)
Fredericia vs Fyn (7) under 2.5 goals
Lyngby vs Frem (9)
English Championship:
Barnsley vs Peterborough United (6)
Blackpool vs Doncaster Rovers (7)
Crystal Palace vs Preston North End (6)
Derby County vs Ipswich Town (7)
Leicester City vs Queens Park Rangers (5)
Plymouth Argyle vs Middlesbrough (6)
Reading vs Coventry City (7)
Sheffield Wednesday vs Bristol City (5)
Swansea City vs Scunthorpe United (6)
Watford vs West Bromwich Albion (8)
Nottingham Forest vs Cardiff City (5)
Newcastle United vs Sheffield United (8)
English League One:
Yeovil Town vs Leeds United (6)
Colchester United vs Millwall (5)
Brentford vs Exeter City (6) under 2.5 goals
Bristol Rovers vs Milton Keynes Dons (6) over 2.5 goals
Charlton Athletic vs Carlisle United (7)
Gillingham vs Southend United (5)
Hartlepool United vs Brighton & Hove Albion (5)
Norwich City vs Stockport County (8)
Southampton vs Leyton Orient (8)
Swindon Town vs Tranmere Rovers (7)
Walsall vs Wycombe Wanderers (4)
English League Two:
Accrington Stanley vs Grimsby Town (6)
Aldershot Town vs Rotherham United (5)
Barnet vs Chesterfield (6)
Bradford City vs Macclesfield Town (5)
Bury vs Burton Albion (6)
Crewe Alexandra vs Cheltenham Town (6)
Darlington vs Hereford United (7)
Lincoln City vs Morecambe (7)
Northampton Town vs Torquay United (8)
Port Vale vs Dagenham & Redbridge (6)
Rochdale vs Bournemouth (6)
Shrewsbury Town vs Notts County (7)
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
Suduroy vs NSI Runavik (6) over 2.5 goals
Vikingur Gotu vs HB Torshavn (6) 2-2
B36 vs B68 (6)
AB vs B71 (7) over 2.5 goals
French Ligue 2:
Strasbourg vs Metz (7)
German Bundesliga 2:
Fortuna Dusseldorf vs St.Pauli (6)
Irish Premier League:
Sporting Fingal vs Shamrock Rovers (6) 1-0
Drogheda United vs Bray Wanderers (6) over 2.5 goals
Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk (7) 0-0
UCD vs Galway United (5) 1-0
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Start Kristiansand vs Valerenga Oslo (7) over 2.5 goals
Kongsvinger vs Aalesund (6) 1-2
Sandefjord vs Odd Grenland Skien (6) over 2.5 goals
Stabaek vs Tromso (7) under 2.5 goals
Viking Stavanger vs Lillestrom (8) over 2.5 goals
Rosenborg BK vs Stromsgodset (7) 2-1
Haugesund vs Honefoss (7) 2-0
Molde vs Brann Bergen (7) over 2.5 goals
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Fredrikstad vs Alta (7)
Bodo Glimt vs Lyn Oslo (7)
Strommen vs Tromsdalen (5)
Lov-Ham Bergen vs Sarpsborg 08 (6)
Follo vs Bryne (6)
Nybergsund vs Mjondalen (7)
Moss vs Sandnes Ulf (8)
Sogndal vs Ranheim (8)
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Naval de Maio vs SL Benfica (8) under 2.5 goals
Scottish Premier League:
St.Johnstone vs Dundee United (6) 1-1
Singaporean S-League:
Balestier Khalsa vs Woodlands Wellington (6) 2-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Villarreal II vs Real Betis Balompie (5)
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Trelleborg vs Helsingborgs (6) 1-1
Mjallby Solvesborg vs Gefle (7) 1-0
AIK Solna vs Orebro (6) 1-0
Swiss Super League:
FC Zurich vs Grasshoppers Zurich (6) 2-2, at least one red card in this game
Swiss Challenge League:
Wil vs Lugano (7)
Turkish Super Lig:
Sivasspor vs Galatasaray (7) 1-2
Welsh Premier League:
Cefn Druids vs Haverfordwest County (8) 1-2
Bala Town vs Connah’s Quay Nomads (7) 1-0
Newtown vs Caersws (8) 2-0
Porthmadog vs Bangor City (8) 1-3
Llanelli vs Carmarthen Town (7) over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!