Bohemians 1905 vs Viktoria Plzen
FreeToday’s featured game is the Gambrinus Liga encounter between Bohemians 1905 and Viktoria Plzen. The hosts have enjoyed a fairly prosperous start to their campaign with their ground being more of a fortress than normal but the same can be said of their league-leading opponents, who are currently in the form of their lives, so we should see a good game here.
Bohemians 1905 are the atypical mid-table side that you’ll find in most domestic leagues. They play well at home because sides don’t score many against them but they don’t score many themselves. Unsurprisingly, Bohemians 1905 are the lowest-scoring side in the top half of the table but it’s also worth noting that only Sigma Olomouc and Marila Pribram in the whole division have conceded less than they have at home. Bohemians average scoring just over a goal per home game whilst conceding a goal per home game on average too so it’s pretty straightforward to see why they’ve only lost once at home this season, which was against giants Sparta Prague a couple of weeks ago. Bohemians do well in this division in general because they have some good, experienced players in their side i.e. ex-Sparta Prague centre-back Petr Lukas and ex-Zenit St.Petersburg striker Lukas Hartig. Bohemians aren’t a great advert for the “beautiful game” but they’re efficient and hard to beat so they’ll be up for bringing Viktoria Plzen back down to reality tonight.
However, league leaders Viktoria Plzen have beaten bigger and better sides than their hosts Bohemians 1905 tonight so they’ll be confident ahead of this game. A 1-1 draw at home to Sigma Olomouc last match won’t deter the league leaders here as their opponents in that game can actually play good football; Bohemians 1905, however, cannot. Viktoria Plzen have already claimed seven wins from eight away games in the Gambrinus Liga this season with an average of over two goals scored per game, which makes them the most potent side in the division away from home. They’re not likely to be daunted by this game because they do have a good record against Bohemians with four wins and one draw from their past five meetings. Plzen have never struggled to score goals here and that’s got to be a concern for the hosts because they don’t look capable of scoring more than once in a game whereas Viktoria Plzen tend to score at least two per game in their current form. The only time Bohemians have prevented Viktoria Plzen from beating them was when they drew 2-2 at home in 2008 and that was due to a late goal from Jan Rezek, who will ironically line up for Viktoria Plzen today against his former club whilst playing in the form of his life. Plzen have become a much better side since then, which is largely due to the consistent goalscoring talents of Jan Rezek, so I expect him to play well against his former club and play a key role in what should be a fairly straightforward away win.
Plzen miss Navratil in defence today through suspension but I’m not overly concerned because Bohemians’ attack isn’t the most dangerous in the division. Nonetheless, the hosts will try to make life hard for the visitors in their usual physical manner but I can’t see Plzen leaving here with anything but three points because of how many goals they score. Bohemians can be undone by class and by goals and although Plzen aren’t the best side in the division, they do score a lot of goals so the away win looks good here, especially as the hosts don’t score many themselves. Therefore, my call is the away win, which is fairly generously priced at 3/4.
Verdict: Viktoria Plzen to win at 3/4.
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Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
This one is fairly logical, really. These two sides are by far the best in Austria’s Liga 1 and both average scoring over two goals per game. Admira have won six out of nine on the road whereas Altach have won eight out of nine at home. Both sides prioritise attacking over defending and it gives them a huge advantage over their rivals in this division as they simply outscore them. However, these two sides tend to match up quite well and although they produce a lot of goals between them, it’s hard to decide which side is actually better. If I was forced to then I’d probably say Admira Wacker are the better of the two sides but I certainly wouldn’t recommend delving into the 1×2 market here. For me, over 2.5 goals is the way forward, which is precisely what has happened for the last two meetings between these two sides in games that ended 3-2 and 3-3 respectively. Therefore, over 2.5 goals at 4/5 is my call for this game.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
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RBC Roosendaal vs Helmond Sport – under 2.5 goals at 10/11.
Going under 2.5 goals in the Eerste Divisie always takes balls because this division just oozes goals at the worst of times. However, I think we’ve got a prime candidate for under 2.5 goals occurring in this game tonight. Concerningly enough, RBC’s last five games consecutively have gone over 2.5 goals but I’m going against the trend because this side generally doesn’t score many goals as a rule. They aveage scoring approximately 1.5 goals per home game whilst conceding a goal per home game on average whereas visitors Helmond Sport average a very similar record indeed. These two sides like to play possession football, take their chances, and keep clean sheets. Unfortunately, after the worst summer in Eerste Divisie history (financially) for the vast majority of the clubs in the division, neither side is playing to their full potential due to massive squad changes and that unfortunately leaves the calls in this division even more risky than normal. However, two out of the last four games between these have gone under 2.5 goals, one of which was at the MariFlex (same venue as tonight) so the possibility is there. If my calculations are correct, based on the tactics deployed by both sides here, I expect both sides to cancel each other out and thus we should see under 2.5 goals at a decently priced 10/11.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 10/11.
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FC Eindhoven vs Cambuur Leeuwarden – away win with draw no bet at 11/10.
I mentioned the financial problems of this division in the preview above but one of the sides that wasn’t drastically affected was promotion favourites Cambuur Leeuwarden. Cambuur waved farewell to some of their squad depth but their starting eleven is still amongst the strongest in the division so I think the bookis have fucked this one up royally, especially giving Eindhoven the advantage on the draw no bet front! Cambuur are easily twice the side that Eindhoven are – fact. Whether they show it or not is another matter, however. Eindhoven are unfortunately a bit of a bastard side to play against when they’re motivated and motivation often comes against the bigger sides i.e. Cambuur. However, the bookies are still giving them too much leeway with these odds, which must be solely based on their impressive start to the Eerste Divisie campaign because they’re weaker than they were last year! Eindhoven can occasionally score goals for fun but they’re not a good side and they cannot defend for shit so I don’t understand why the bookies have priced the game like this, unless I’m missing a trick or something! It’s going to take more than a dubious 1-2 win at Telstar (their only win in seven games!) for me to be impressed by Eindhoven although their resilience will always make me wary of betting against them. I appreciate that Cambuur aren’t a particularly good side on the road, which is a little concerning, but they’re still worthy of being shorter with DNB to win this game against an inferior side and given their potent form of late, I have to give Cambuur a chance here, risky as it is!
Verdict: Cambuur Leeuwarden to win with draw no bet at 11/10.
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Legia Warsaw vs Arka Gdynia – home win with -1.5 handicap at 31/20.
You won’t often see me handicap Legia Warsaw and you won’t often see me go heavily against Arka Gdynia but I’m doing both today and the boldness of it is represented by the good odds!
So why today? Legia have just been battered 4-0 by bitter rivals Wisla Krakow and need to wake up quickly in order to get their Ekstraklasa campaign back on track and this is the perfect game for them to do so. Legia know that they’re better than Arka and their players have already expressed their confidence ahead of this game as a result. Legia have faced Arka eight times since Arka were promoted and Legia have won six of those, drawing the other two, both of which were away from home. Indeed, Arka have only scored once during those eight games and given that they’re the only side in the Ekstraklasa yet to score a goal away from home, it’s hard to see that changing today. Legia have beaten the -1.5 goal handicap in three out of their four home games against Arka and although their morale can’t be as high as they’re making out it is, there’s still light years of class difference between these two sides if Legia are motivated enough to beat a vastly inferior side. Legia have players playing for them that are too good for the Ekstraklasa; Arka are barely good enough to be in the division. However, Arka are hard to beat and thus don’t concede many so it should be interesting to see how this game develops. Legia have played well lately, barring the bizarre defeat at Reymonta against Wisla, so I’ll give them some leeway here. It also helps my cause that Arka have just lost 2-0 at a weak Polonia Bytom side prior to this game and also that they have a substantial injury list ahead of this game with Burkhardt, Bednarek, Sulima, Robakowski, and Glavina all missing this game through injury, although only two are consistent starters.
Barring the fabled Legia lapse in concentration, this should be a comfortable home win, to be blunt. Quality-wise, Legia shouldn’t be longer than 23/20 to beat the handicap here so there is value on show. Arka will make it hard for Legia but with Arka rarely scoring any goals at all since Tshibamba moved to Lech Poznan, it’s hard to see the visitors causing too many problems for the hosts. Therefore, my call is the home win with a -1.5 goal handicap in this encounter.
Verdict: Legia Warsaw to win with -1.5 goal handicap at 31/20.
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Pandurii Targu Jiu vs Brasov – home win at 11/10.
I’ve mentioned a few times in the last few weeks how Pandurii are gradually being transformed into an attacking side by new manager Grigoras and they actually look better for it, surprisingly. Pandurii are unbeaten in three games, scoring an impressive six times along the way and confidence is high as a result. Pandurii have never conceded at home to Brasov (well, I suppose that could be argued on the basis that this side isn’t “technically” Pandurii!) because Brasov don’t attack away from home – they’re defensive moguls, nothing else. Brasov seem to have special powers of survival! They should have been relegated years ago but despite having no money, they still seem to somehow survive each season. They’ve already lost four out of seven on the road with an average of less than a goal scored per every two games. Brasov generally keep sides out well and if Pandurii were their usual defensive selves then I’d hit under 2.5 goals and back away from the 1×2 market. However, the hosts are in-form, they’ve been revolutionised under their new manager, and they look bloody good for it. For me, Pandurii at 11/10 is a gift here as I’d have expected them to be evens against a poor Brasov side, especially when the hosts are playing so well, so my call is the home win.
Verdict: Pandurii Targu Jiu to win at 11/10.
Follow your bet as the match unfolds at Flashscores.co.uk!
Accumulator fodder:
Dinamo Zagreb, Legia Warsaw.
Recommended bets:
Legia Warsaw and Viktoria Plzen at 2/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Banfield (6) under 2.5 goals
Australian A-League:
Melbourne Heart vs Adelaide United (5) under 2.5 goals
Austrian Liga 1:
Lustenau vs Gratkorn (4)
St.Polten vs Hartberg (7)
WAC/St.Andra vs Austria Lustenau (5)
Grodig vs First Vienna (6) over 2.5 goals
SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker (6) over 2.5 goals
Chilean Primera Division:
San Luis vs Santiago Wanderers (5) 1-1
Croatian Prva Liga:
Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Dinamo Zagreb (8) 0-2
Inter Zapresic vs Karlovac (6) under 2.5 goals
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Bohemians 1905 vs Viktoria Plzen (8) 1-2
Danish 1st Division:
HB Koge vs Naestved (6)
English League Two:
Burton Albion vs Bury (4) draw no bet
German Bundesliga 2:
Union Berlin vs Fortuna Dusseldorf (5)
Rot-Weiss Oberhausen vs Arminia Bielefeld (6)
Osnabruck vs Hertha HSC Berlin (4)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Kaposvari Rakoczi vs Gyori ETO FC (5) 1-0
Budapest Honved vs Siofok (7) 2-0
Italian Serie B:
Vicenza vs Padova (7) under 2.5 goals
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs Den Bosch (6) over 2.5 goals
RBC Roosendaal vs Helmond Sport (6) under 2.5 goals
Almere City vs Veendam (5)
Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar (5)
FC Eindhoven vs Cambuur Leeuwarden (6) over 2.5 goals, draw no bet
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Legia Warsaw vs Arka Gdynia (8) -1.5 handicap
Gornik Zabrze vs Korona Kielce (4) 0-1, draw no bet
Polish Liga 1:
Dolcan Zabki vs Odra Wodzislaw (4) draw no bet
Flota Swinoujscie vs LKS Lodz (5) over 2.5 goals
Kluczbork vs Gorzow Wielkopolski (5)
Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski vs Sandecja Nowy Sacz (6)
Piast Gliwice vs Nieciecza (7)
Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala vs Ruch Radzionkow (7) over 2.5 goals
Gornik Leczna vs Kolejarz Stroze (6)
Romanian Liga:
Pandurii Targu Jiu vs Brasov (6) 2-1
CFR Cluj vs Gaz Metan Medias (7) 1-0
Rapid Bucharest vs Universitatea Cluj (3) 1-1
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Senica vs MSK Zilina (6) 1-2
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Barcelona II vs Recreativo de Huelva (4)
Ukrainian Premier League:
Sevastopol vs Arsenal Kiev (5) under 2.5 goals
Welsh Premier League:
The New Saints vs Llanelli (7) over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!