Brescia vs Ascoli
FreeToday’s featured game is the Serie B encounter between Brescia and Ascoli. Serie B has had a lot of bad press lately following the hype surrounding Gallipoli’s 2-2 draw with Grosseto and the influx of 2-2 bets at 8/1 shortly before the Grosseto equaliser so don’t be surprised if your bookmaker isn’t giving odds on this game – some bookies are boycotting this division. However, I like this league as it tends to run like clockwork so I’m going to continue betting on it!
Hosts Brescia are starting to get into top gear, which must be worrying for their rivals as Brescia are one of the best sides in this division. Brescia are excellent at home with nine wins in thirteen games this season. They average scoring nearly two goals per game and concede less than a goal per game. Brescia have won their last four home games consecutively and have scored eight times in doing so, conceding just twice along the way. Brescia’s overall form shows that they’re unbeaten in seven Serie B games so their momentum is very strong at the moment, particularly as they’ve won five of those games. Brescia stand a very good change of achieving promotion to Serie A if they maintain this form so they’ll be well-motivated for this game as well as having all the necessary ability to win the encounter.
Visitors Ascoli are not going to go quietly, however. They’re also unbeaten in seven games and have won five of those games too. However, two consecutive draws show that Ascoli’s run is gradually halting so they’re beginning to look a little more beatable. They’ve lost four out of thirteen away games in Serie B this season and are amongst the top goalscorers in the division away from home. However, Ascoli forgot all about their potency in their last away game at Mantova and managed a rather unimpressive 0-0 draw. I rate Mantova but Ascoli’s momentum and potency should have seen them win that game so I think this is a further sign that they’re going off the boil a litle. Ascoli are a capable side but only in short bursts; they’re not as good a side as Brescia.
I can see why the bookies have given good odds on this game give both sides’ form but they wouldn’t give odds like this had Ascoli not been in form because Brescia are considerably better than they are. Brescia traditionally do very well at home and have proven this various times this season already. Brescia won the last meeting here between these two sides and with their strong momentum at the moment I expect them to beat Ascoli again.
Verdict: Brescia to win at 5/6.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente – home win at 13/10.
These odds are too good to resist! Velez Sarsfield are one of the best sides in Argentina at the moment and they’re currently top of the Primera Division. They’ve won twice and drawn twice in their four games so far. I’ve actually been more convinced by them on the road than at home but frankly they’re a threat wherever the play. They’ve only conceded twice in their four games but have scored six times, emphasing their typically ruthless efficiency in winning games. They’ve even beaten Brazil’s Cruzeiro along the way in the Copa Libertadores although that was assisted by Cruzeiro deciding that playing the game with nine men would somehow be easier than playing with eleven men. Nonetheless, Velez have gained a lot of momentum from this run so should make it count tonight.
Independiente are unbeaten in their two away games so far in the Clausura but each time it’s been because their hosts have failed to score against them; Independiente are yet to score an away goal. They’ve played some interesting games at home that they’ve won somewhat fortunately. I admire their ability to keep clean sheets on the road but can’t help feeling that it’s because they’ve not faced a good side yet. Indepediente were great away from home in the Apertura but that was because they scored a lot of goals, something that they’re not doing in the Clausura so it’s only a matter of time before it falls down around them.
Ironically, Independiente have drawn here 0-0 for their last two visits and considering they’ve drawn their other two games 0-0 already you’d think there’s a good chance of another 0-0 draw. It goes against my bet entirely so I don’t believe it myself; I think Velez Sarsfield are well placed to beat Independiente tonight and there’s value in the odds so I’ll take the home win.
Verdict: Velez Sarsfield to win at 13/10.
Wiener Neustadt vs Rapid Vienna – lay Rapid Vienna at evens.
Hosts Wiener Neustadt lost their first game back from the winter break at SV Mattersburg as I correctly predicted. It’s now time for them to prove that they’re still a force at home so they can avoid being sent straight back down to Liga 1. Wiener Neustadt have already won six out of eleven home games in the Bundesliga this season and have only been beaten three times during that run. They concede an awful lot of goals as you’d expect from a newly-promoted side but they score an awful lot too. In fact, only LASK Linz and tonight’s opponents Rapid Vienna have scored more goals at home than they have in this campaign with Wiener Neustadt averaging scoring approximately 2.5 goals per home game. Wiener Neustadt therefore have a chance to do damage tonight so it’ll be interesting to see how it goes.
Rapid Vienna are arguably the best side in Austria so it takes a lot for me to go against them. However, their defeat at LASK Linz last week demonstrated why I’m doing so; because I believe that their hosts can outscore them. There’s no way on earth that Wiener Neustadt are as good as Rapid Vienna but they’re incredibly potent at home whereas Rapid Vienna away from home really aren’t that good a side. In fact they’ve only won three times in ten away games this season and don’t score many more than they concede, hence their issues. Rapid Vienna did win here 4-0 earlier in the season but I’m carefully overlooking that because Rapid Vienna were in sublime form at the time; they’re not now, particularly after their 4-2 crushing at LASK Linz. Rapid Vienna are a very capable side but they’re going to have to score a lot of goals tonight to overcome a resilient Wiener Neustadt and I just don’t think that they’re in the right frame of mind to do so.
Aside from Rapid Vienna’s win here earlier in the season, only Salzburg from Austria’s “big four” have won here and they had to score three goals to win the game (full time scoreline was 2-3) which proves my point about the away side needing to score a lot of goals. Rapid Vienna definitely have the potential to do it but they don’t have the form or the momentum. Rapid’s odds are far too short with this in mind so there has to be value in laying Rapid tonight.
Verdict: Lay Rapid Vienna at evens.
Bury vs Shrewsbury Town – home win at evens.
Despite defeat at Chesterfield last match, Bury’s resurgence goes on with more and more players returning from injury. They’re up to third in the League Two table and have won seven out of their last nine League Two games so their momentum is still good. They’ve won their last six home games consecutively, including a 1-0 win against bitter rivals Rochdale, so they’re a reliable force there. Had it not been for an awful start to their campaign then Bury’s home record would look considerably better at the moment. Nonetheless, Bury are looking reliable and consistent at home which is largely because of a compact defence that has only conceded twice in their six home games. Bury aren’t a prolific side at all but they tend to do enough by keeping other sides out and whatever method works for them suits me just fine – they look good value to me!
Visitors Shrewsbury Town are one of League Two’s more notorious home sides. They’ve become a bit better on the road this season but they’ve still lost five out of their fifteen away games and still concede more goals than they score so haven’t yet convinced me that they’re a proper force in this league. Shrewsbury have been playing well lately with four wins in their last five games but it’s worth mentioning that only one of those games were away from home and that was against a very poor Macclesfield Town. Shrewsbury are certainly a capable side but I can’t see them breaking down a resolute Bury defence and I can’t see their leaky defence keeping an efficient Bury out so there should be value in the home win tonight.
Verdict: Bury to win at evens.
Nantes vs Bastia – home win at 5/6.
I’ve been going against Nantes for weeks now but I’m finally going to back them to turn their fortunes around tonight, if only temporarily. My sole reason for backing the home win tonight is odds. You will never see these odds again in your life because Nantes are twice the side that Bastia are; they’re just horrendously out of form. Nantes haven’t been scoring goals hence their issues but that luck has to change at somepoint so why not tonight? They put in a good display at Strasbourg and probably didn’t deserve to lose the game but that’s the way luck has been with them lately. Nantes have scored in four out of their last five Ligue 2 games at home and although they’ve only won once they’re still showing the capability of winning. Although Bastia have improved lately the fact remains that they’ve lost ten out of twelve Ligue 2 games on the road. They also struggle to score goals although their problem is considerably more permanent than Nantes’ as they’ve scored just four away goals all season. Bastia are a lot better than they were a few weeks ago but they’re still not doing enough in my opinion. This should be a close game and could even end a draw but I cannot overlook these odds of a home win for a very good Nantes side that simply aren’t playing well!
Verdict: Nantes to win at 5/6.
Arminia Bielefeld vs MSV Duisburg – home win at 10/11.
Arminia Bielefeld are in good form at the moment with three wins in their last four Bundesliga 2 games. They’ve won their last two home games consecutively and have scored six goals in doing so – an average of three goals per home game. That takes Arminia Bielefeld’s home wins to seven out of ten for the season so they’re certainly reliable at home. Arminia are seeking to return to the Bundesliga following relegation last season and they’re doing a damn good job, in my opinion. Arminia’s strength is in their stout defence which has conceded just eight goals in ten home games. Arminia average scoring nearly two goals per home game too so with all things considered, Arminia have a good chance of winning this game tonight.
Visitors MSV Duisburg are also battling for promotion but they’ve struggled a lot lately and are now without a win in three games. They’ve been good on the road this season but they’ve also lost four out of their eleven away games so they’re capable of being beaten. Duisburg’s flaw on the road is conceding nearly as many as they’ve scored whereas the majority of the sides above them have much more favourable goal ratios on the road. Duisburg have lost two of their last three games and have only scored once along the way, hence the problems that they’re having. As I touched upon briefly earlier, Duisburg are conceding rather a lot and if they’re not scoring then they’re not going to take anything from their games.
This should be a close game between two good sides but I favour the in-form Arminia Bielefeld because they’ve got good momentum, they’re reliable at home, and their opponents aren’t scoring goals at the moment.
Verdict: Arminia Bielefeld to win at 10/11.
Maritimo vs Nacional – home win at evens.
The Madeira derby sees both sides entering the game in poor form. Maritimo edge the form chart over Nacional as they’ve won two out of their last five games despite losing three times. Nacional, however, are without a win in the Liga Sagres in six games so have little momentum to build upon. Maritimo were unlucky to lose against Braga in their last match as Braga’s second goal clearly went out of play initially but that’s football I guess! Maritimo are looking at least partially alive entering this game however so they’ve got the upper hand with momentum at least. Nacional have lost seven out of ten away games already in the Liga Sagres so they’re really going to struggle tonight. However, the overwhelming factor behind my call tonight is the fact that Maritimo have won this exact fixture for the last seven times that it has been played so they’ve got a definite mental edge there. Nacional have only beaten Maritimo once at either ground in their last five games so it’s fair to say that Maritimo have extra confidence tonight.
Although neither side are setting the world alight with their displays, Maritimo are at least winning every now and then; Nacional are not. Both are very good capable sides and derbies should always be approached with caution but I feel there’s enough on Maritimo to make tonight’s call a good value bet.
Verdict: Maritimo to win at evens.
Recommended bets:
Racing Genk, Rotherham United, Brescia, and Velez Sarsfield at 10/1.
HJK Helsinki, Le Havre, and Bury at 5/1.
Fortuna Dusseldorf, Strasbourg, and Maritimo at 6/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Chacarita Juniors vs Colon de Santa Fe (6) 1-2
Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente (7) 1-0
Austrian Bundesliga:
Wiener Neustadt vs Rapid Vienna (5) 2-2
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Racing Genk vs Lokeren (8) 2-0
English League Two:
Bury vs Shrewsbury Town (7)
Rotherham United vs Torquay United (8)
Finnish Liiga Cup:
HJK Helsinki vs MyPa Anjalankoski (9) -1.75 handicap
VPS Vaasa vs Tampere United (6) 1-1
French Ligue 2:
Sedan-Ardennes vs Angers SCO (6)
Nantes vs Bastia (6)
AC Ajaccio vs Stade Malherbe de Caen (7) under 2.5 goals
Strasbourg vs Clermont Foot (7)
Le Havre vs Istres (8)
Chateauroux vs Vannes OC (6)
Dijon FCO vs Metz (5)
Laval vs Nimes (6)
Arles vs Tours (7)
German Bundesliga:
Hoffenheim vs Borussia Moenchengladbach (6) 2-1
German Bundesliga 2:
Arminia Bielefeld vs MSV Duisburg (7) over 2.5 goals
Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Rot-Weiss Ahlen (9)
Union Berlin vs Koblenz (5)
Italian Serie B:
Brescia vs Ascoli (7)
Dutch Eredivisie:
Roca JC Kerkrade vs Heracles Almelo (6) 0-0
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs Excelsior (5)
Veendam vs Dordrecht ’90 (6)
Den Bosch vs De Graafschap (6)
Eindhoven vs Zwolle (5)
Volendam vs MVV Maastricht (6)
Fortuna Sittard vs Emmen (6)
Go Ahead Eagles vs Telstar (7)
Helmond Sport vs RBC Roosendaal (6)
Cambuur Leeuwarden vs Oss (7)
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Maritimo vs Nacional (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Romanian Liga:
Otelul Galati vs International (6) 1-0
Singaporean S-League:
Tampines Rovers vs Armed Forces (5) 1-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Elche vs Levante (6)
Welsh Premier League:
Airbus vs Prestatyn Town (7) 0-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!v