Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory
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Today’s free tip is in the early kick-off in Australia between Brisbane Roar and Melbourne Victory.
Despite McManaman’s return for Melbourne Victory, I’m still not convinced they can get something in Brisbane today. I’ll agree that they’ve improved lately, but I would hastily point out that their record flatters them. I thought they were remarkably poor in front of goal against Perth Glory’s “B” defence, and I thought they should have been beaten in their derby by Western United with their neighbours hitting the woodwork twice, and having two goals ruled out, one of which was very harsh. I thought they showed more mettle though, Melbourne Victory, and that will please boss Brebner.
This is still a team that I believe to be quite susceptible, though. It takes the right opponent to irk them but Brisbane Roar are definitely that kind of team. In this match, I would need to see Ansell partnering Shotton at the heart of defence as well as Gestede leading the line before I trusted Victory to potentially get something from this fixture. I can’t deny that their counterattacking game is good, and the likes of Kruse and McManaman will only make it better too. Having Folami through the middle is a good threat too in that respect.
The problem is that Victory require a team to recklessly commit men forward in order to show what they’re made of at the other end, and there’s nothing reckless about the way Brisbane Roar play. Fowler set them up to be extremely disciplined and consistent, and his replacement Moon has picked up where he left off. Breaking Brisbane Roar down is seriously painful. It takes a lot of plugging away, a lot of mental strength, and a lot of belief to manage it because they seldom make mistakes. That’ll be even truer when regular shot stopper Young returns. He’s supposed to be back today but I doubt he’ll start.
Victory need another route to goal in order to hurt Roar, basically – and Gestede is that route. His absence is a real problem for Victory because they don’t have an experienced target man to stand in for them, although I’m sure their fans will be chuffed to finally have backup striker Athiu off their books at least. I doubt I’ve ever seen a worse finisher in my life than him! Other than some McManaman magic, which he is admittedly more than capable of, I can’t see a good route to goal for Victory today. Again, this team will have a strong attack in due course because they’ve finally recruited very well in that department – but it’s not yet. I still don’t believe that Kruse and Rojas are anywhere near their best at the moment, McManaman has only just come back from injury, Kamsoba has no end product, and Folami has only just joined. In due course, they’ll be a massive over 2.5 goals team, Victory – but not yet.
What has been made abundantly clear this season is that, when pressed, Victory will crumble. Brisbane Roar did that to them well in the reversal of this fixture, and I don’t see why they’d change anything today. They’re intense, physically intimidating, and they’ve got excellent stamina levels. Earlier this week, they tied down instrumental players Aldred and O’Shea to longer contracts, which was a real signal of intent from a team that isn’t well-off financially. I really like the balance of this squad, though. I think they’ve got a bit of something special about them, this group, if only for their collective output.
Nothing about what Roar does is complicated to understand. They press hard and high, attack and defend as one, and simply never let opponents settle on the ball until they’re comfortably ahead, and then they sit back and break through the speed of Wenzel-Halls, Champness, and their new arrival, Mebrahtu, whenever he appears. Mebrahtu was a really good signing to make, too. I remember thinking he was a joke of a finisher when he first left Australia but I remember watching him in Czechia a few years back and he became really good in front of goal. He’ll fit right in at Brisbane, assuming he can stay fit.
With a good finisher like McDonald flanked by raw pace and good pressers, Roar will always see the ball more than a team of their somewhat average quality should. Danzaki has played a really big role on the pressing front since moving from Japan too. They’re good from set pieces, Brisbane Roar, and very good at making defenders uncomfortable enough to give chances away. I maintain that McDonald is their only good finisher, mind you – that’s their weak spot. Having said that, Wenzel-Halls is very confident because he keeps scoring, and a confident striker will always bag more than they normally would. There’s a really great energy and balance about this Roar team though, one that I enjoy a lot. Yes, they’re quite defensive, but they aren’t afraid to get forward at all; it’s just that they do it in a very shrewd, measured manner.
Dealing with Roar is complicated, basically, and Victory are not in a position to deal with complicated teams right now. Therefore, I’m on the Roar win at 21/20.
Verdict: Brisbane Roar to win at 21/20.
Saturday’s Thoughts
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts. For confidence ratings, you’ll need to go to the members section here.
Australian A-League:
Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory
Macarthur FC vs Western Sydney Wanderers
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
KV Oostende vs Sint-Truiden
Cercle Brugge vs KV Mechelen
Waasland-Beveren vs Club Brugge
Standard de Liege vs OH Leuven
Brazilian Serie A:
Bahia vs Goias
Atletico Goianiense vs Santos
Croatian Prva Liga:
NK Osijek vs Hajduk Split
Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Rijeka
Czechia Liga 1:
Karvina vs Opava
Bohemians 1905 vs Zbrojovka Brno
Viktoria Plzen vs Slovan Liberec
English Premier League:
Aston Villa vs Arsenal
Burnley vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Newcastle United vs Southampton
Fulham vs West Ham United
Manchester United vs Everton
Finnish Suomen Cup:
PK-35 vs MuSa
KTP vs HIFK
FC Lahti vs HJK
KPV vs VPS
Ilves vs KuPS
Haka Valkeakoski vs IFK Mariehamn
Ekenas IF vs TPS
Jaro Pietarsaari vs RoPS
AC Oulu vs SJK
Gnistan vs MP
FC Honka Espoo vs Inter Turku
French Ligue 1:
Lorient vs Stade de Reims
Olympique Lyonnais vs Racing Club Strasbourg
Racing Club Lens vs Stade Rennais
German Bundesliga:
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart
SC Freiburg vs Bv09 Borussia Dortmund
Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig
Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin
Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg
Borussia Moenchengladbach vs Koln
German Bundesliga 2:
Darmstadt 98 vs Nurnberg
Osnabruck vs VfL Bochum
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hannover 96
Hungarian Liga 1:
Diosgyori VTK vs Varda SE
Mezokovesd-Zsory vs Budapest Honved
MTK Budapest vs Ujpest
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Hapoel Haifa vs Maccabi Netanya
Hapoel Kfar Saba vs Hapoel Be’er Sheva
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs Bnei Sakhnin
MS Ashdod vs Maccabi Haifa
Italian Serie A:
Sassuolo vs Spezia
Atalanta Bergamo vs Torino
Juventus vs AS Roma
Genoa vs SSC Napoli
Italian Serie B:
Salernitana vs Chievo Verona
Brescia vs Cittadella
Cremonese vs Pisa
Pescara vs Reggina
Cosenza vs SPAL
Frosinone vs Venezia
Monza vs Empoli
Pordenone vs Vicenza
Dutch Eredivisie:
PSV Eindhoven vs FC Twente Enschede
PEC Zwolle vs RKC Waalwijk
FC Emmen vs AZ Alkmaar
SC Heerenveen vs Vitesse Arnhem
Portuguese Liga 2:
Feirense vs Vilafranquense
Varzim vs Chaves
Leixoes Matosinhos vs Arouca
Estoril vs Academica de Coimbra
Spanish Primera Liga:
Levante vs Granada
Huesca vs Real Madrid
Elche vs Villarreal
Sevilla vs Getafe
Swiss Super League:
Vaduz vs FC Zurich
Swiss Challenge League:
Grasshopper Zurich vs Chiasso
Turkish Super Lig:
Kasimpasa vs Hatayspor
Alanyaspor vs Rizespor
Istanbul BB vs Fatih Karagumruk
Fenerbahce vs Galatasaray
Enjoy your free betting tips!