Buducnost Podgorica vs Polonia Warsaw
FreeI see the site went down yesterday. Apologies guys – this is fucking me off as much as it is you, no doubt. Apparently our server people are masturbating all over their equipment or some other exasperated over-exaggeration so that the site keeps going up and down. Rest assured, we’re doing everything we can to kill these meddling fuckers get the situation resolved with minimum death.
Two notices before today’s preview:
1. I’ve had a bit of insider knowledge thrust at me today that Paul Ince will take over the helm at Milton Keynes Dons after current boss Roberto Di Matteo left to take over at West Bromwich Albion. Ince managed at Milton Keynes Dons before moving to Blackburn Rovers about a year ago and allegedly he’s set for a return there so a punt may be worthwhile!
2. I’ve noticed something very interesting in the Icelandic Landsbankadeild Karla regarding FH Hafnarfjordur. Did you know…that I have predicted every outcome of their fixtures in the league this season correctly? They’ve won nine and lost one and I’ve got every single one correct. I’m rather proud of that. Ok, they’re the best side in the country but to call their outcomes successfully for ten games in a row is impressive in my book, particularly as there was a defeat in there for them. No doubt this will jinx them today, but I thought I’d share that!
Today’s featured game is between Montenegrin side Buducnost Podgorica and Polish side Polonia Warsaw. In my opinion, Buducnost Podgorica are the best side in Montenegro, whether the league table indicates that or not. This side is strong both home and away and should be viewed in the same context as an away trip to one of Serbia’s decent sides i.e Vojvodina Novi Sad – not the best side in the country, but a good one. Last season, Buducnost Podgorica were only beaten once at home, having won twelve of their seventeen home games. Consider that they also averaged nearly three goals per game and you have to start wondering why the bookies are giving 11/10 on an away win here. Polish sides are notorious bad travellers, as indeed are most Eastern European sides. Balkan sides, however, are particularly strong at home. This area of Europe is difficult to go and play in, particularly in a new nation to European football like Montenegro is. You can rest assured they’ll be doing their utmost to outplay their Serbian neighbours in European achievements this season and will be gunning for a home win here. Polonia Warsaw were a surprise package last side and I’m surprised they’ve made it into Europe. My main reasoning behind this is because they’re really not very good and I don’t expect them to be in this feisty country. I hope I’m not made to eat my words here, and I really don’t think I’ll have to, but 2/1 for a home win here is a steal and I think the bookies are giving such bizarre odds purely because they’ve got nothing to go on in terms of Montenegrin football history. Either way, I’ll be taking these odds and hoping the Montenegrins show the same kind of resilience and quality as their Serbian neighbours do – in fact, I thoroughly expect them to.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
Buducnost Podgorica vs Polonia Warsaw – home win at 2/1 – see introduction for full details.
Sutjeska vs MTZ-RIPO Minsk – home win at 10/11. This game in Montenegro is also a rather interesting game. Again, the bookies don’t know an awful lot about sides from this country in Europe. Indeed, who can? However, looking at their general style and location, you know you’re in for a rough ride. This is the last kind of game that Vladimir Romanov-owned MTZ-RIPO Minsk need at the moment. They’re in such haphazard form that they can’t string any consistency together at all. They enter the game on the back of a home defeat to title rivals BATE Borisov and now face a lengthy trip south from Belarus to the Balkan state of Montenegro. Sutjeska proved last season that they are well and truly a home side, winning more home games than the two sides that finished above them in the league and indeed, winning more home games than anyone in their division. They don’t score many goals – they barely creep over 1.5 goals scored per home game – but they’re very effective. The visitors are going to have a very rough ride here and 11/10 looks very tempting.
Valur Reykjavik vs FH Hafnarfjordur – away win at 10/11. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – the Icelandic Landsbankadeild Karla throws up some of the most fascinating and bizarre statistics in European football. Did you know that Valur Reykjavik have only scored in one of their past five games at home to FH Hafnarfjordur in the Landsbankadeild Karla? The only time they have scored was a 4-1 drubbing they dished out in 2007. They’ve lost every other game at home to reigning champions FH Hafnarfjordur without scoring a single goal. Atypically, this isn’t a very poignant point to make when a side entertains the champions, but when the side in question is often considered a title rival, you have to sit up and take note. This statistic, I am confident, will not be unbeknown to the hosts and I think it will unnerve them, if only a little. It’s daunting enough to entertain a side of FH Hafnarfjordur’s quality without having this “monkey on their back”, so to speak. What makes the odds of 11/10 even more juicy is that Valur Reykjavik are unbeaten at home this season but FH Hafnarfjordur boast the best away record in the division with five wins from six games. Summarised; I really like the sound of an away win here!
Stjarnan Gardabaer vs KR Reykjavik – home win at 15/8. This is one of my more difficult/risky calls of today. Newly-promoted Stjarnan Gardabaer have been flying since their promotion. Well, that was until lately when they had a poor run of a couple of games where it looked like their wheels were beginning to fall off and life in the Landsbankadeild Karla didn’t appear quite as rosy. However, they pissed on my interpretations of their form by annihlating title challengers Valur Reykjavik 3-0. Stjarnan Gardabaer may not be much of a force on the road but they are one hell of a team at home. They’ve got the best home record in the division with five wins from five games, averaging a massive three goals per game, and they’ve nailed some impressive scalps along the way. KR Reykjavik, however, are a very good side that are capable of turning it on. Interestingly enough, the bookies favour an away win here, which is brave of them. The visitors have won two games on the road this season from four, only losing one overall, which was a 3-0 battering by oddballs Fram Reykjavik a couple of games ago. Aside from that battering, they’ve only conceded two goals on the road this season. Against goal machines Stjarnan Gardabaer, something just have to give way. In my eyes, there’s a home win on the horizon and money to be made, particularly with tremendous odds of 15/8. However, I’ll leave you with one final hilarious fact that may put you off but I find it amusing – Stjarnan Gardabaer have never beaten KR Reykjavik, a record which goes back to 1994, at which point I couldn’t be bothered looking back any further. Perhaps the bookies have taken this too literally! I’ll hope to capitalise on it, however!
Tampines Rovers vs Super Reds – home win at 5/6. You have to love the Singaporean S-League – it’s one of the most predictable around. If a side is good at home, they tend to win at home. Tampines Rovers are a very good side at home. In fact, there’s only three sides in the division with a better home record than they do, as they currently boast six wins and two draws from eight home games. Why the good odds, then? Well, Super Reds are one of the heavy-hitters from this nation, even if their league placing doesn’t show it. They’re somewhat inconsistent so do approach this game with caution, but with five defeats from eight on the road this season, a home win looks favourable.
As ever, any questions/explanations required, feel free to email me at thefootytipster@gmail.com. For the complete picks listing, see below!
Copa Libertadores:
Gremio vs Cruzeiro (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
UEFA Europa League Qualifiers:
Olimpi Rustavi vs B36 Torshavn (9) -1.75 handicap
Dinaburg Daugavpils vs JK Nomme Kalju (8) 3-1
Simurq Zaqatala vs Bnei-Yehuda Tel-Aviv (8) under 2.5 goals
Banants Yerevan vs Siroki Brijeg (7) 0-0
FC Lahti vs Dinamo Tirana (7) 2-1
Valletta vs Keflavik (7) 1-2
Sutjeska vs MTZ-RIPO Minsk (8) 2-1
Zimbru Chisinau vs FC Okzhetpes (7) 1-0
Dinamo Minsk vs Renova Dzepciste (8) 2-0
Trans Narva vs Rudar Velenje (7) 1-1
Szombathelyi Haladas vs Irtysh Pavlodar (8) 3-1
Anorthosis Famagusta vs Kaerjeng (10) -1.75 handicap/-2.75 handicap
Slaven Koprivnica vs Birkirkara (10) -1.75 handicap
Spartak Trnava vs Inter Baku (5) 0-0
Randers vs Linfield (8) 2-0
CS Grevenmacher vs Vetra Vilnius (8) 0-3
Sligo Rovers vs Vllaznia Shkoder (7) 2-1
Fram Reykjavik vs The New Saints (7) 2-0
NSI Runavik vs Rosenborg (10) -2.75 handicap
Buducnost Podgorica vs Polonia Warsaw (8) 2-0
Lisburn Distillery vs Zestafoni (6) under 2.5 goals
Helsingborgs vs Mika Yerevan (10) -1.75 handicap
Motherwell vs Llanelli (9) -1.75 handicap
Chinese Super League:
Shaanxi Zhongxin vs Changsha Ginde (7) 1-1
Changchun Yatai vs Hangzhou Lvcheng (8) 2-0
Shenzhen vs Chengdu Blades (7) 2-1
Shandong Luneng vs Jiangsu Shuntian (7) 1-0
Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Shide (7) 2-1
Qingdao Jonoon vs Guangzhou Yiyao (6) 1-1
Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye (6) 0-0
Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Lifan (8) 3-0
Icelandic Landsbankadeild Karla:
Breidablik Kopavogur vs Fjolnir Reykjavik (7) 2-0
Stjarnan Gardabaer vs KR Reykjavik (7) 2-1
Valur Reykjavik vs FH Hafnarfjordur (8) 0-2
Singaporean S-League:
Tampines Rovers vs Super Reds (7) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!