Bursaspor vs Manchester United
FreeToday’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League encounter in Turkey between Bursaspor and Manchester United. Newcomers Bursaspor have not adapted to the Champions League style of football at all whereas there are few sides more experienced in this competition than their English opponents so I fancy an uphill task for the hosts tonight.
Bursaspor are yet to register a goal in this competition, losing 0-4 at home to Valencia CF, 2-0 at Rangers, and 1-0 at Manchester United. Bursaspor have some good players but they’re inexperienced at such a level and it shows in each game. I think they’ve impressed me the most in those three games when they travelled to Old Trafford to face Manchester United two weeks ago and didn’t really deserve to lose in a game that Manchester United looked totally uninterested in. However, the reasoning behind Bursaspor’s semi-decent display was an entirely lacklustre display from the hosts; Bursaspor’s football on that occasion was actually quite poor if you consider how much time they were actually given on the ball. They looked somewhat poor and devoid of creativity and although the hosts tonight are dominating the Super Lig again, they’ve not yet mastered the art of European football and I think they’re going to pay the penalty again tonight. Bursaspor are the only side in this group that are yet to register a goal and against a United side that is rapidly growing in confidence again, I’d be surprised to see that change tonight.
Manchester United and Real Madrid are the only two sides in this competition that are yet to concede a goal so it doesn’t bode too well for Bursaspor tonight as they seek to cure their European impotence. Fergie always plays a more defensive 4-5-1 on the road in Europe and I doubt that will change tonight as he usually seeks to see what his opponents can do in the first-half and exploit them in the second-half. United’s excellent away form in European football is due to clinical finishing and solid defending, neither of which is particularly necessary against their somewhat predictable hosts, unfortuantely. That’s quite good news for United as they’ve left Rio Ferdinand behind as he’s carrying a knock but Fergie still has a lot of strength at his disposal and has promised to field a “strong squad”. If this game was two or three weeks ago then I wouldn’t have touched it but United are finally getting into their stride and they look better for it. The win against Tottenham at weekend was arguably the best performance of the season thus far for United – not because they dominated play and were clinical but because Carrick and Fletcher haven’t looked anywhere near as assured on the ball this season as they did in that game and United countered an extremely pacey Spurs side very effectively. United looked solid in defence when you consider the attacking threat that Spurs possess and also demonstrated good attacking ability. United have now won three consecutive games and it’s pleasing to see the confidence ebbing back into the players as United play football as a result. Little Javier Hernandez is taking his chances very well indeed and he’s adapting a hell of a lot faster than I anticipated would and I feel that United have finally found a replacement for Tevez; an enthusiastic striker whose tenacity is infectious although I’d argue that Hernandez is a better striker than Tevez but he’s obviously not as complete a player as Tevez is – yet!
Basically, United have played strongly lately. There is still work to do but a United side with confidence is very nearly unplayable in European football and that’s what I expect tonight. I don’t see a game with many chances here because United should monopolise the ball and convert the odd chance whereas the hosts struggle enough to create chances when they have the ball, let alone when they don’t. The handicap option on the away win was tempting but I’ve avoided it due to United’s defensive tactics on the road in Europe. However, I’m really rather pleased that United are somehow at 3/4 to win this game when they should be shorter if you consider Bursaspor’s inability to score goals. I’m very tempted to back United to win without conceding at 7/4 and with the above in mind, do give it some thought. Nonetheless, my main call is the away win at 3/4 tonight.
Verdict: Manchester United to win at 3/4.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Tottenham Hotspur vs Internazionale – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Both sides are missing quite a hefty number of players for this game but I still fancy the overs here. Why? Well, one of the quickest midfields in the whole competition will be taking on a slow Italian side – that has got to produce goals via one method or another. It’s a beautiful contradiction, really – the experienced slow, brooding Italian tactics versus the somewhat naive but attractive pacey football played by a Spurs side with nothing to lose. The first game between these two sides ended 4-3 to Internazionale although I don’t think the hosts really deserved to win the game, in all honesty – only Tottenham’s inexperience in the early stages of that game cost them a draw or possibly even a win. I think Tottenham’s inexperience will see Inter score at least once tonight but I think the way Tottenham play will scare the Italians, and so it should – it’s very hard to play against at the best of times. I’m not brave enough to touch the 1×2 market here but over 2.5 goals looks decided generous at 4/5 with all of Tottenham’s five Champions League games this season having gone over 2.5 goals and all three of Inter’s Champions League games in the current campaign having gone over 2.5 goals too. I anticipate a great game between these two sides as it’ll be interesting to see which tactical approach triumphs so I’d definitely recommend watching this one over any other tonight.
Spurs need the points, they’re at home, and they know they’re good enough to do damage here. Benitez still hasn’t convinced me that he’s the right man for Inter so it’ll be interesting to see how he does tonight. I can’t see anything but goals, goals, and more goals in this one though so I’ll stay on the fence and take over 2.5 goals!
Team news – Inter miss Julio Cesar, Esteban Cambiasso, McDonald Mariga, David Suazo, Dejan Stankovic, and Thiago Motta for this game whilst Diego Milito, Lucio, and Maicon are supposedly doubts. Spurs miss the usual long-term casualties Ledley King and Jonathan Woodgate, not to mention the likes of Vedran Corluka, Michael Dawson, Jermain Defoe, and Tom Huddlestone. Brazilian goalkeeper Gomes is suspended too. I don’t think either side is strong enough to control this game so I think we’ll see an open game here and we all know what that usually brings!
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Manchester United, Barcelona, Brighton & Hove Albion, Chesterfield.
Recommended bets:
Manchester United and Barcelona at evens.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA Champions League:
Rubin Kazan vs Panathinaikos (7) under 2.5 goals
Tottenham Hotspur vs Internazionale (4) draw no bet, over 2.5 goals
Werder Bremen vs Twente Enschede (5) over 2.5 goals
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs Schalke 04 (5) 0-1
SL Benfica vs Olympique Lyonnais (5) under 2.5 goals
Valencia CF vs Rangers (7) 2-1
Bursaspor vs Manchester United (8) 0-2
FC Copenhagen vs Barcelona (8) 0-2
Copa Sudamericana:
Newells Old Boys vs Liga de Quito (6) under 2.5 goals
English League One:
Southampton vs Dagenham & Redbridge (7)
Milton Keynes Dons vs Yeovil Town (6)
Plymouth Argyle vs Bristol Rovers (5)
Brentford vs Bournemouth (5)
Swindon Town vs Charlton Athletic (6) over 2.5 goals
Rochdale vs Oldham Athletic (5) under 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Sheffield Wednesday vs Huddersfield Town (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Walsall vs Peterborough United (6) over 2.5 goals
Hartlepool United vs Notts County (5)
Carlisle United vs Tranmere Rovers (6) over 2.5 goals
Colchester United vs Leyton Orient (7)
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Exeter City (8) under 2.5 goals
English League Two:
Chesterfield vs Accrington Stanley (8)
Crewe Alexandra vs Shrewsbury Town (4)
Lincoln City vs Northampton Town (5)
Barnet vs Stevenage (6)
Cheltenham Town vs Southend United (6) under 2.5 goals
Rotherham United vs Macclesfield Town (7) over 2.5 goals
Morecambe vs Stockport County (5) under 2.5 goals
Oxford United vs Torquay United (6)
Burton Albion vs Port Vale (7)
Gillingham vs Wycombe Wanderers (6)
Hereford United vs Aldershot Town (5)
Bury vs Bradford City (7)
Estonian Meistriliiga:
Nomme Kalju vs Flora Tallinn (6) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Enjoy your free betting tips!