Bursaspor vs Trabzonspor
FreeToday’s featured game is the Super Lig encounter between Bursaspor and Trabzonspor. Hosts Bursaspor are having yet another successful season and currently occupy third place in the table, six points behind leaders Fenerbahce with a game in hand. Visitors Trabzonspor have had a fairly slow campaign but are gradually gathering momentum and currently occupy sixth place so tonight’s game should be an interesting encounter.
Bursaspor have already won seven out of nine home games this season and average scoring over two goals per home game as well as boasting the joint best defensive record at home in the Super Lig along with Kayserispor. Bursaspor concede just over a goal per every two home games and are extremely reliable on their own turf. They’ve matured from an average Super Lig side to a top six side in recent years and have a promising squad as a result although the most widely acclaimed of those players tends to be Sercan Yildrim, who is considered by many to be the most promising player in Turkish football currently. Bursaspor’s last home game was a few days ago in the Turkiye Kupasi where they thumped Fenerbahce 3-1, which is further testament to their ability at home. Bursaspor are a very capable side in general and this result will have only increased their confidence and momentum, leaving them in good stead ahead of their tricky tie tonight.
Visitors Trabzonspor used to fill the void that Bursaspor now fill. Whereas Trabzonspor are a long way from being out of the picture, their rank in the Super Lig has declined in recent years. However, Trabzonspor are beginning to wake up now and are unbeaten since returning from the winter break, which is a total of eight games in all competitions. However, only three of those games were away and I don’t consider any of those away games to be particularly testing. Whereas Trabzonspor will have gained a good level of momentum from such a run, I doubt their ability to maintain it against a very good Bursaspor side. Trabzonspor have lost here for two out of their last three visits, drawing the other encounter. However, Trabzonspor are the highest-scoring away side in the Super Lig at the present time with an average of over two goals per game scored and have won five out of their nine away games. Trabzonspor are clearly better than the majority of Super Lig sides but their three defeats on this run indicate that they are caught out by good sides sometimes.
Although this should be a very exciting game with plenty of goals as well as featuring two good sides, I have to favour Bursaspor here. They’ve been phenomenal at home this season both in attack and defence so they should be able to overcome Trabzonspor tonight. Trabzonspor have been potent on the road but their defence isn’t as good as it needs to be, particularly here, so I feel they may be exposed tonight, particularly as they’ve struggled travelling to Bursaspor for many years. Ultimately, I feel the value is in the home win tonight.
Verdict: Bursaspor to win at 6/4.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Argentinos Juniors vs Newell’s Old Boys – home win at evens.
Argentinos Juniors have only played two Clausura games in this campaign and although they’re yet to win a home game, they’ve managed to score eight goals, which is an average of four goals per game. Argentinos Juniors managed a respectable 2-2 draw at home to Boca Juniors in their opening Clausura game before travelling to Lanus and playing a frankly bizarre game of football that ended 6-3 in favour of the visitors. Argentinos Juniors are a decent away side but they shouldn’t be capable of that! It was partially suicidal defending from Lanus and taking the initiative from Argentinos Juniors that did the damage but either way their potency at the moment is through the roof so it’s hard to go against them. They were good at home in the Apertura with five wins from ten games and tended to rely on their stern defence rather than attacking ability. However, the tables have now turned and Argentinos Juniors are scoring goals for fun so they’ve got a good chance of doing damage tonight.
Newell’s Old Boys have just returned from a trip to Ecuador where they succumbed to defeat against Emelec Guayaquil, a result that means that tonight’s visitors will not participate in this year’s Copa Libertadores. I think this is a blessing in disguise because Newell’s aren’t really good enough to be there and don’t have the squad to compete on both fronts. Newell’s were the best away side in the Apertura with seven wins in ten games but have struggled to get out of the traps in the Clausura with just one win in three games. They’ve already lost on the road against a poor Huracan side and have had to fight for their few points gained at home so they are struggling. Despite the four that Newell’s scored against Boca Juniors, I’m not convinced that they’re a potent side at all – a side that is primarily based upon defence generally isn’t potent and I don’t think that Newell’s are an exception to this ruling. That said, Newell’s appear to have forgotten about their reliable defence as they’ve conceded four goals in their last two Primera Division games so it’ll be interesting to see what Newell’s side turns up. However, whichever Newell’s Old Boys does show up, one aspect of that side will remain constant – they’ll be tired. The trip to Ecuador is a long one and a fruitless trip like that won’t have done the morale of Newell’s any good at all. They’ve now lost both away games that they’ve played in recent times and now travel to bogey side Argentinos Juniors, a side that they failed to beat in either of their last two meetings and a side that they surprisingly managed to lose at home to last season without even registering a goal themselves. I can’t see Newell’s Old Boys rushing into this game eagerly with glee as I think they’re going to have yet another difficult away game against a good side and frankly I can only see them losing it.
Argentinos have had longer to prepare for this game, they’re scoring goals for fun at the moment, and they’ve got the home advantage. That’s enough for me to take them to beat a Newell’s side that are tired and frankly not that good a side.
Verdict: Argentinos Juniors to win at evens
Strasbourg vs Nantes – home win at 10/11.
Strasbourg’s resurgence continues as they’re now unbeaten in their past four Ligue 2 games, winning twice and drawing twice. Both of Strasbourg’s wins came at home so they’re gradually building up some strong momentum as they seek to become the impressive promotion challengers that they have been for some time. Strasbourg have won six out of eleven home games in Ligue 2 this season despite being fifth from the bottom of the table so it’s easy to see that they do have strength in their squad. Strasbourg have won their last five Ligue 2 home games consecutively and have notched up twelve goals along the way, an average of over two goals scored per home game. Their momentum is strong and their ability is unquestionable so I can see them “doing a job” on Nantes tonight.
Visitors Nantes are witnessing their season going from bad to worse in a matter of weeks. Instead of vying with the likes of Caen and Metz for a promotion place they find themselves being drawn into a relegation battle instead! They’re one of the lowest scoring away sides in Ligue 2 with just eight goals scored in eleven games and they average conceding nearly two goals per away game. With those records in mind, it’s easy to see why Nantes have been beaten in six out of their eleven away games in Ligue 2 this season. Nantes are also without a win in their last six games, losing five times along the way so their momentum and confidence are gone. They fact that Nantes have only scored three goals in their last six games speaks volumes as to why they’re having so many issues and with zero confidence at the moment it’s impossible to see them producing an inspired display currently. They’ve lost their last five away games now and as they’re facing a very potent Strasbourg side tonight that are in good form at home, I can only see Nantes losing this game with yet another goal-shy display.
Verdict: Strasbourg to win at 10/11.
MSV Duisburg vs Kaiserslautern – away win at 8/5.
MSV Duisburg’s push for promotion has suffered several dents in recent times with three defeats in their past five games. Despite averaging scoring two goals per game at home, they’ve lost two out of their last three home games without scoring a single goal in those two games. Duisburg haven’t scored in either of their last two games and I think we’re beginning to see what is a rather big problem for the hosts and that is that they don’t score enough goals currently. A 5-0 win against FSV Frankfurt a few weeks ago indicated that they’re capable of doing it but it just seems that a good side has little trouble in keeping them out, which is a big problem. Duisburg’s home record isn’t great with just four wins in ten games and with their form and goalscoring stalling of late, I find it hard to envision them winning this game tonight.
Visitors Kaiserslautern are marching onwards through Bundesliga 2 despite a blip a few weeks ago. They’re now unbeaten in three games and have won their last two consecutively. Kaiserslautern’s blip came against good sides, good sides that caught them short on goalscoring and leaky in defence. However, Kaiserslautern are back with a bang and have now gone three games without conceding a single goal, which is bad news for goal-shy Duisburg! Kaiserslautern have battered Alemannia Aachen away and Paderborn at home in their last two games, scoring six goals in the process, so their potency is good too. With seven wins from eleven away games already this season, it’s hard to see a driven and potent Kaiserslautern not beating Duisburg tonight, particularly with the hosts struggling to score as Kaiserslautern are solid defensively too.
Verdict: Kaiserslautern to win at 8/5.
Salternitana vs Triestina – home win at 13/8.
This is probably the riskiest call of the day but I do believe that Salernitana are gradually launching something of an attack to escape the drop zone in Serie B. They’ve been losing many games, as you’d expect, but their home form has gone by somewhat unnoticed of late. Salernitana have only lost once in their last four home games, which was a defeat against Brescia, which is acceptable considering their league placing versus Brescia’s ability. Salernitana have won two of those four games against two strong Serie B sides – Empoli and Ancona respectively. In fact, Salernitana’s last home game was their 3-0 win against high-flying Ancona so the hosts are not to be underestimated at home. They’ve scored in all four of their last four home games, which totals six goals. Although they’ve lost three out of their last four games, you have to bear in mind that all their defeats came on the road and even then they fought valiantly, particularly in an unfortunate 3-2 defeat at Sassuolo. Salernitana are gradually becoming a bit of a force, ultimately, so my recommendation is not go underestimate them just because of their league placing!
Visitors Triestina are consistently a bad away side. They’re yet to register an away win in Serie B this season despite playing eleven times. They’ve lost six out of eleven away games this season and average conceding nearly two goals per away game whereas they score less than a goal per away game that they play. Triestina have lost seven out of their last nine Serie B games, losing their last four away games consecutively. Triestina have conceded ten goals during those four away games and scored just three times so it’s very simple to see why they’re having so many problems. Triestina are very much a home side and yet they’re struggling there too so momentum and confidence are ebbing very low indeed. Triestina are ultimately conceding too many goals so taking on a rejuvenated Salernitana side away from home may not be the God-send that the majority of people interpret it to be.
This should be a close game between two sides that can beat each other on their respective days but Salernitana have far more in their favour in my opinion and the odds are good value to see it occur at.
Verdict: Salernitana to win at 13/8.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Argentinos Juniors vs Newell’s Old Boys (6) 2-1
Cypriot Division 1:
APEP vs APOEL Nicosia (9) 0-2
English League One:
Bristol Rovers vs Charlton Athletic (6) under 2.5 goals
French Ligue 2:
Strasbourg vs Nantes (7)
German Bundesliga 2:
MSV Duisburg vs Kaiserslautern (5)
Italian Serie B:
Salternitana vs Triestina (6) draw no bet
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Cambuur Leeuwarden vs Fortuna Sittard (7)
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs Emmen (8)
Veendam vs Oss (6)
Go Ahead Eagles vs Den Bosch (5)
De Graafschap vs RBC Roosendaal (7)
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Naval de Maio vs Vitoria Guimaraes (7) 1-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Tenerife vs Real Mallorca (6) 1-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Lugano vs Yverdon Sport (7) over 2.5 goals
Turkish Super Lig:
Bursaspor vs Trabzonspor (6) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!