BV09 Borussia Dortmund vs Koln
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Bundesliga encounter between league leaders BV09 Borussia Dortmund and battlers Koln. The hosts all but won the Bundesliga with an impressive 1-3 win at bitter rivals Bayern Munich last match whereas Koln’s season is still very much on the knife-edge so it should prove to be an interesting game tonight.
The first question I have to ask is “Are Dortmund really worth 1/3 to win this game?” and my answer would be “Not really”. Why? Well, Dortmund are twelve points clear at the top of the table with just ten games remaining and they’ve just beaten their biggest rivals 1-3 away from home. Aside from demoralised Bayern Munich, the only other two sides who are close enough to concern Dortmund are over-achieving Hannover 96 and a Bayer 04 Leverkusen side lacking in depth so I don’t see them being concerned. Dortmund have done enough to win the Bundesliga this season and perhaps their relatively inexperienced and youthful side may experience a little complacency, especially after such a big win. On paper, Dortmund’s home record is very strong, especially from a defensive perspective. However, I do find them susceptible at the back and I think complacency will be a factor here so Dortmund may well concede in this game.
In my view, Koln are one of the hardest sides in the Bundesliga to play against when they’re playing well because they simply don’t know how to stop battling for every ball and scoring goals that they perhaps shouldn’t be able to. Star striker Podolski is in immense form and the ex-Bayern Munich striker may have a point to prove against the bitter rivals of his ex-club. Podolski’s form is a benchmark for all their other players that they strive to meet and as a result, Koln’s performances have improved tenfold lately. Koln are actually unbeaten in four games, scoring nine goals during the run and winning three out of their four games, including a heroic victory against Bayern Munich. Koln isn’t a side with world-class players but they do present a front that is very hard to break down and each of their players echoes that in their own way. Novakovic and Podolski in attack know how to find the net and Polish duo Peszko and Matuszczyk in midfield should prove their worth in time, the latter of which already is, so it’s fair to observe that Koln are not without threats at all. Incidentally, it’s worth pointing out that Matuszczyk misses this game tonight, unfortunately!
Koln have scored in three out of their last four meetings against Dortmund and given that I expect a very strong Dortmund side to give a fairly complacent display tonight, I think we’ll see goals from both sides. Dortmund still have enough quality to win the game but for me, there’s no value in taking them to win at 1/3. Instead, I’m opting for both sides to score because the odds are good enough to take a chance on and this game matters to Koln as they’re far from free of relegation yet.
Verdict: Team news – BV09 Borussia Dortmund miss Hornschuh, Owomoyela, Sobiech, Kagawa, Kringe, Ginczek, Le Tallec, Stiepermann, and Zidan whereas Koln miss Horn, Schwabke, Basala-Mazana, Cullmann, Geromel, Giannoulis, McKenna, Schorch, Vaassen, Buchtmann, Matuszczyk, Niedrig, Chihi, and Uth.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 10/11.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Inter Zapresic vs NK Zagreb – home win at evens.
As my loyal readers will know, I had an idea that Inter would prove a tough customer for Hajduk Split last week but I did think Hajduk would eventually sneak a win. It proved not to be, however, and thus Inter carry their momentum over from before the winter break to now. Inter are rapidly transforming into a side that is frankly very hard to score against so any goal that they do score tends to be quite fatal for their opponents. Goalscoring isn’t their greatest strength whatsoever but whilst averaging scoring just over a goal per home game, they’ve still managed to win five out of eleven Prva Liga home games this season so you can see my point here.
Visitors NK Zagreb have dipped since the winter break, however. There may not be much between these two sides in any capacity but unlike their hosts, Zagreb are not scoring goals. Indeed, the worst news for Zagreb was the sale of hot prospect Celjak to Sampdoria a couple of months ago, which exposes Zagreb’s defence quite a lot. As defence is their strongest area currently, it’s hard to envision NK Zagreb having a good remainder to the rest of their campaign. They’ve brought in a few players too i.e. experienced full-back Rendulic, ex-Hajduk Split midfielder Cesliscak, and Cesena attacker Chiavarini but it’s sort of pushing Zagreb towards another style rather than their proven successful style and if the transformation doesn’t kill them then their defensive loss will.
I can’t really comment on the long-term plans of NK Zagreb here as I don’t honestly know which way they’re heading. However, I don’t think they’re in the best of positions here, especially against a confident and able Inter Zapresic side. Therefore, I do think there’s value in the home win at evens although I’d leave it if the odds drop.
Verdict: Inter Zapresic to win at evens.
Bohemians 1905 vs Jablonec – both sides to score at 10/11.
This tip kind of goes against my usual style as Bohemians 1905 are a very defensive side at home so I’d usually look at unders.
Howeve, there is a logic behind this tip that is worth taking into consideration. First of all, Bohemians 1905 somehow bagged three goals in their last game, which resulted in a very impressive 1-3 win at Slovacko. Now, I don’t rate Slovacko very highly but Bohemians 1905 are not a good away side and haven’t been for some years so to bounce back from the winter break and record such a good Gambrinus Liga result makes me think that they’ll be very confident for this game too. Bohemians 1905 have been dominant at home this season with only Sparta Prague winning here so I think we’re set to see a strong display from the limited but tenacious hosts.
Visitors Jablonec also surprised me with an emphatic 3-0 win against rivals Slovan Liberec. This surprised me on various fronts because Slovan Liberec are a decent side, because Jablonec had lost star striker Pekhart to Sparta Prague just a few weeks earlier, and because Lafata in attack rolled back the years to score a memorable hat-trick in a man-of-the-match display. I expect normal service to be resumed here, however, as Bohemians 1905 is not an easy away game and Jablonec are wise enough to know it nowadays. I still think that Jablonec’s attack will be affected by the departure of Pekhart and although a glorious derby win may have glossed over that fact, I think it’ll be much more evident against a run-of-the-mill side like Bohemians 1905 tonight, hence my call.
The only side to win at Bohemians 1905 this season has been Sparta Prague, as I mentioned earlier. The only way in which Sparta could to this was to avoid conceding, which is something that no other side has managed at Bohemians 1905 this season. Now, I like Jablonec a lot – I admire their spirit – but they’re susceptible defensively on the road for a club which is nowadays considered to be one of the better Gambrinus Liga sides and I think that hosts Bohemians may just take advantage of that tonight. I’d hate to enter the 1×2 market here but with both sides entering the game on the back of a good result, I fancy both sides to score in this game.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 10/11.
Lecce vs AS Roma – home win with draw no bet at 7/4.
I like this tip an awful lot on varying fronts, really! First of all, Lecce seem very long at 3/1 as no trip to southern Italy is ever easy.
However, from a more logical perspective, Icannot figure out why Roma are such favourites here. Roma obviously possess better individuals – there can be no doubting that – but we’re talking about a side that has consistently demonstrate to be ineffectual and defensively stupid on the road for some time now so what has changed ahead of their trip to Lecce tonight? Not much, in my view. Roma have only won four times in fourteen Serie A away games this season and with only Parma and Lecce having conceded more away from home than they have, it’s easy to see why that is.
Then we also have to take into account the recent displays of both teams. Under ex-striker Vincenzo Montella, Roma recorded a somewhat fortuitous 0-1 victory over injury-ravaged Bologna before succumbing to a 2-2 draw at home to Parma that they barely deserved with Parma bossing the majority of the game. Roma have the quality to take their chances in front of goal but do they have enough to keep sides out? Even with French centre-back Mexes returning tonight, I still don’t see it happening so I think Roma will struggle here, especially as goalscoring has never been an ally of 4-5-1 formation for anyone other than the Deportivo La Coruna side of old!
To top that off, Lecce have played very well lately. They looked down-and-out after falling two goals behind at Brescia early in their last game but they never gave up and ended up claiming a well-earned 2-2 draw. Just look at how confidently and tirelessly they’re playing at the moment! They’ve scored nine goals in their last five games and they’ve only lost twice in their last nine games in two games which saw defence abandoned entirely by both Lecce and Palermo and Lecce and Catania respectively with the each scoreline ending 2-4 and 3-2 respectively.
It’s not like Lecce have simply had “easy games” either. Their last four home games have included games against AC Milan and Juventus respectively and Lecce were admirable in both games. This side has simply been geared up to not accept defeat in any format and to their credit, that’s exactly what they’re doing and I think they’ll give an unconvincing Roma side a real run for their money tonight.
In terms of team news, Lecce are finally almost back to full-strength with only old hand Di Michele still absent. Indeed, that’s another point worth mentioning – Lecce have played well lately despite missing a lot of players – let’s see what they can do now that their Uruguayan contingent in midfield is back in action! Roma are largely at full-strength too but do miss talismanic attacker Totti, which is a big blow in games like these as he’s played here many times before and knows it’s not an easy away game. Roma need leadership here and I don’t see where it’s coming from with no Totti, to be blunt, as I don’t personally feel Montella has what it takes to manage such a big club so early in his managerial career.
For me, the value in this game is takine Lecce to win with draw no bet at a very generous 7/4.
Team news – Lecce miss Ferrario and Di Michele whereas AS Roma miss Totti and Rosi.
Verdict: Lecce to win with draw no bet at 7/4.
Accumulator fodder:
BV09 Borussia Dortmund, Hertha BSC Berlin, Zwolle.
Recommended bets:
Lecce DNB and Zwolle at 3/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
All Boys vs San Lorenzo de Almagro (5) 2-1
Austrian Liga 1:
First Vienna vs St.Polten (5)
Austria Lustenau vs Gratkorn (7)
Admira Wacker vs Hartberg (8)
WAC/St.Andra vs Lustenau (6) over 2.5 goals
Grodig vs SCR Altach (7) over 2.5 goals
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Anderlecht vs Racing Genk (6) 1-0
Chilean Primera Division:
Audax Italiano vs Cobreloa (7) over 2.5 goals
Colombian Primera A:
Envigado vs Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota (5) 1-1
Croatian Prva Liga:
Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Varteks Varazdin (6) under 2.5 goals
Inter Zapresic vs NK Zagreb (6) 1-0
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Bohemians 1905 vs Jablonec (6) 1-1
Finnish Liiga Cup:
MyPa Anjalankoski vs TPS Turku (7) 2-0
Inter Turku vs HJK Helsinki (5) over 2.5 goals
French Ligue 2:
AC Ajaccio vs Stade Lavallois (7) under 2.5 goals
Chateauroux vs Troyes (5)
Clermont Foot vs Istres (6) under 2.5 goals
Grenoble Foot vs Nantes (5)
Reims vs Metz (7)
Sedan-Ardennes vs Nimes (6)
Tours vs Vannes OC (6)
German Bundesliga:
BV09 Borussia Dortmund vs Koln (8) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
German Bundesliga 2:
Osnabruck vs Greuther Furth (5)
1860 Munich vs Rot-Weiss Oberhausen (5)
Hertha BSC Berlin vs FSV Frankfurt (8)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Kecskemeti TE vs Debreceni VSC (6) over 2.5 goals
Ujpest vs Siofok (7) under 2.5 goals
Italian Serie A:
Lecce vs AS Roma (5) over 2.5 goals
Irish Premier League:
Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk (7) 2-1
Bray Wanderers vs Bohemians (7) 0-1
Derry City vs Sligo Rovers (4) 1-1
Galway United vs St.Patrick’s Athletic (5) 1-1
Drogheda United vs UCD (6) 2-1
Mexican Primera Division:
Estudiantes Tecos vs Pachuca (4) 1-0
Dutch Eredivisie:
De Graafschap vs Willem II (5) both sides to score
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Veendam vs Helmond Sport (5)
Go Ahead Eagles vs Eindhoven (6)
Almere City vs Zwolle (8)
Veendam vs Fortuna Sittard (6)
RBC Roosendaal vs Emmen (6)
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs MVV Maastricht (6) both sides to score
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Libertad Asuncion vs Rubio Nu (7) 1-0
Olimpia Asuncion vs Guarani Asuncion (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Slask Wroclaw vs Cracovia Krakow (6) 2-1
Wisla Krakow vs Ruch Chorzow (6) under 2.5 goals
Polish Liga 1:
Pogon Szezecin vs LKS Lodz (6)
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Academica de Coimbra vs Uniao de Leiria (5) 1-0
Romanian Liga:
Unirea Urziceni vs Targu Mures (6) 1-0
Dinamo Bucharest vs Pandurii Targu Jiu (5) 0-0
Singaporean S-League:
Tanjong Pagar vs Woodlands Wellington (6) 1-2
Turkish Super Lig:
Kayserispor vs Manisaspor (6) over 2.5 goals
Ukrainian Premier League:
Metalurg Zaporizhya vs Illichivets Mariupol (4) 1-1
Welsh Premier League:
Bala Town vs Newtown (6) 1-0
Haverfordwest County vs Carmarthen Town (5) 1-1
Airbus UK vs The New Saints (7) 0-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!