Caersws vs Newtown
FreeToday’s featured game is the Welsh Premier League game between Caersws and Newtown. With just two games remaining, Caersws are already confined to relegation and their recnt form shows just why that is. Newtown are a point from safety and need to maintain their decent form of late to have any chance of surviving the drop this season.
Caersws have been absolutely abysmal all season long. Only bottom club Newi Cefn Druids have lost as many home games as they have with twelve defeats in sixteen games, although Caersws have actually played one less home game than Newi Cefn Druids! No side has conceded as many as Caersws have at home with an average of over two conceded per game. They don’t even manage to score a goal per home game on average either! They’ve not won any of their last ten games, losing nine times along the way. They concede heavily and rarely score so it’s easy to see why they’re faring so badly. They’ve shown absolutely no enthusiasm whatsoever to avoid the drop and they’ve fully deserved relegation for it, in my opinion. They suffered further embarrassment last match with a crushing 7-1 defeat at Bangor City and I can’t see their form getting any better because it has absolutely no reason whatsoever to change. Caersws are demoralised, abysmal defensively, and don’t score enough goals. In my opinion, that kind of side will lose against just about anyone so Caersws look doomed tonight.
Newtown are far from the greatest side in the league but they’re a decent side. Unlike Caersws, Newtown are showing a desire to avoid relegation, something that a couple of wins may just grant them. It’s “squeaky bum time” for Newtown so they have to start winning consistently, and start tonight too. They flattened Caersws 4-1 at home a few games ago and have won three out of their last five away games, losing once along the way. Newtown’s let-down is their defence as they do tend to score goals. Their away record isn’t as bad as you might suppose when glancing at the Premier League table and I’m banking on that assisting them tonight. Overall, Newtown are a better side than Caersws by some way and I thoroughly expect that to show tonight.
I’m not even expecting a close game in this one – Caersws are simply woeful. They concede far too many, they barely score, they have nothing to play for, and they’re massively demoralised as they’re already relegated. Newtown have everything to play for, they’re reasonably good on the road, and they’ve got a real desire to avoid the drop so I can’t see anything but an away win at very generous odds of 5/6 – Newtown should surely be at least 2/5 for this one!
Verdict: Newtown to win at 5/6.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Internazionale vs Barcelona – away win at 11/8.
I can’t put this more simply than that Barcelona are better than Internazionale. I’ve seen a lot of people saying that Inter are the side to stop Barcelona this season – bullshit. You’re a fucking idiot if you believe that. Barcelona are twice the side that Internazionale are and it shows every time they meet. Barcelona haven’t ever conceded a goal against Inter in the Champions League despite four meetings, two at either ground. They’ve played each other twice in the group stages this season with Barcelona dominating both games, winning the home leg and drawing the away leg. Inter were fortunate to escape with nothing from their home game with Barcelona as they were totally outclassed as you’d expect when facing the world’s best side. Barcelona just don’t give the ball away and that was shown at weekend when taking on local rivals Espanyol. Despite Barcelona being reduced to ten men in that game, they still dominated possession which is why they rarely concede goals. One thing I cannot envision happening tonight is Inter scoring barring catastrophic defending or a dodgy penalty – they’re just not good enough or quick enough. Barcelona really shouldn’t lose this game, in my opinion. However, the risky side of this bet is that Barcelona have drawn both of their two games in Italy 0-0 on their previous two visits to face Inter so they don’t often manage to make their possession count out there. However, my counter for that is that Mourinho cannot sit his men behind the ball this time and hope that beating Rubin Kazan and Dynamo Kiev will see them through to the latter stages. This time, Inter must attack and I think it’ll have disastrous consequences.
It’s going to be a close game, in my opinion, because Inter will not want to concede despite being aware that they need to score. Barcelona aren’t looking as potent lately as the can be due to missing players and a lengthy campaign but they’re still a phenomenal side and if anyone will score then it should be them. Frankly, to back Barcelona to beat anyone at 11/8 is a pure bargain and should be taken onboard with whatever stakes you deem worthy.
Verdict: Barcelona to win at 11/8.
Bolivar La Paz vs Juan Aurich – lay Bolivar La Paz at evens.
As you may or may not have heard, Juan Aurich are taking reserves to Bolivia for this game. Why not? They’ve got a tough game at home to Alianza Lima in just two days time and they’re already out of this competition along with Bolivar La Paz so they’ll turn their attention to their faltering domestic campaign. A lot of people have jumped on the Bolivar bandwagon as a result and whereas I can see the logic in that, I can’t accept that Bolivar are 1/2 to win this game. Frankly, I expect Juan Aurich’s reserves to be a match for Bolivar and to at least obtain a draw. Bolivar’s manager has said that he’d like his side to win at least one game in this competition (for a change!) and kudos to him for his optimism. However, you’re not seriously telling me that a meaningless Copa Libertadores game is more important than their big clash with title rivals The Strongest at weekend?! For Bolivar to even dream of getting in this competition again and generating some extra revenue as a result they’ll have to do well domestically so that surely has to take priority? I’d be surprised to see Bolivar go full-blooded for this game, in fact. I expect a somewhat tenacious and boring game between what should be two well-matched sides. I cannot possibly see why Bolivar’s first team is so highly-thought of over Juan Aurich’s reserves, seriously – the Bolivian league is the worst in South America by a long way so the odds of evens on laying the hosts tonight have to be worth a shot, surely? Bolivar are never worth backing at 1/2! I wouldn’t touch them at less than evens for this game!
Lastly, before anyone gets any ideas about altitude advantage – pick up a map of Peru once in a while – it’s pretty damn high up itself!
Verdict: Lay Bolivar La Paz at evens.
Notts County vs Rochdale – home win at 5/6.
This is a meaningless game so do keep punts low. Both sides have already obtained promotion and as such are very happy, and deservedly so; they’ve both had good campaigns. However, I simply can’t overlook odds of 5/6 on the home win for what is clearly a superior Notts County side. They’re so strong in both defence and attack and boast some of the best records in the division for such characteristics. They’ve been absolutely superb of late and bring great momentum into this game, momentum that will not die down purely because they’ve just been promoted. Let’s not forget that the wealth of Notts County threatens the position of every player so they have to play for their place next season. Rochdale have wobbled an awful lot of late with just one win in four games and they look more relieved than delighted to be promoted. I think we’ll see a big anti-climax from Rochdale tonight and they’ll stumble just like they have done many times of late, which is fatal against Notts County.
Although it should be a fairly close game between two good sides, there’s only one “great” side here and that’s Notts County, in my opinion. The odds of 5/6 look generous to me with that in mind but do approach with caution as both sides are already promoted, as I’ve mentioned.
Verdict: Notts County to win at 5/6.
Accumulator fodder:
Estudiantes De La Plata, Levski Sofia, Southampton, Wisla Krakow, Ruch Chorzow, Llanelli.
Recommended bets:
Southampton, Newtown, Wisla Krakow, and Llanelli at 5/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Champions League:
Internazionale vs Barcelona (6) 0-1
Copa Libertadores:
Bolivar La Paz vs Juan Aurich (4) 1-1
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Alianza Lima (8) over 2.5 goals
Bulgarian A PFG:
Lokomotiv Mezdra vs Levski Sofia (8) 0-2
English Championship:
Scunthorpe United vs Reading (6) over 2.5 goals
Queens Park Rangers vs Watford (5) under 2.5 goals
English League One:
Brentford vs Tranmere Rovers (6) under 2.5 goals
Southampton vs Oldham Athletic (8)
English League Two:
Cheltenham Town vs Darlington (7)
Notts County vs Rochdale (8)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Nyiregyhaza Spartacus vs Debreceni VSC (6) 1-2
Irish Premier League:
Bray Wanderers vs St. Patrick’s Athletic (6) 0-1
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Lechia Gdansk vs Polonia Bytom (5) 1-0
Ruch Chorzow vs Odra Wodzislaw (7) 2-1
Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw (8) 2-1
Korona Kielce vs GKS Belchatow (5) 0-0
Singaporean S-League:
Albirex Niigata vs Etoile (6) 0-1
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Helsingborgs vs Malmo (4) 2-2
Djurgardens vs Atvidabergs (6) 2-1
Swedish Superettan:
Jonkopings Sodra vs Angelholm (6)
Hammarby vs GIF Sundsvall (5)
Welsh Premier League:
Caersws vs Newtown (7) 1-2
Welshpool Town vs Aberystwyth Town (7) 0-2
Carmarthen Town vs Haverfordwest County (5) 1-1
Llanelli vs Neath Athletic (8) over 2.5 goals
Connah’s Quay Nomads vs Bangor City (7) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!