Cagliari vs Lazio
FreeUnfortunately, further computer issues mean that today’s previews are very brief indeed so my apologies regarding that – the computer issues should be resolved permanently within the next week.
Today’s featured game is the Serie A encounter between Sardinians Cagliari and Lazio. Cagliari are on a fairly poor run of form but are strong as ever at home whereas Lazio face the very real danger of being relgated due to shambolic displays and problems with scoring goals.
Cagliari have lost three out of their last four games, drawing the other game. However, it’s worth nothing that their three defeats all came on the road so their impressive home form is still in good shape. Cagliari have been rather unlucky in their last four games when you consider that they’ve scored seven times during those games. However, woeful defending has cost them points and Cagliari have suffered as a result. That said, Cagliari remain one of the most potent sides in Serie A at home and sides atypically need to score at least two goals to take points off today’s hosts so you can see the problems that face a goal-shy Lazio today. Despite Cagliari’s lack of form of late, you have to feel that their potency will pay off today.
Lazio have some good players but aren’t good enough as a team. They enter this game missing various players and also enter the game as one of the lowest-scoring sides in the division both at home and away from home. Lazio don’t even manage to average scoring a goal per away game so how they hope to get two goals or more today is frankly beyond me. Much like today’s hosts Cagliari, Lazio have lost three out of their last four games. However, Lazio suffered an embarassing defeat at home to a vigilant but goal-shy Bari side last match without even scoring a goal so they should be even more demoralised than normal! Lazio have lost their last two away games consecutively, conceding five times whilst scoring just twice. I expect this kind of record to continue against a potent Cagliari today so the home win should really be tremendous value today.
Verdict: Cagliari to win at 11/10.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Austria Vienna vs Salzburg – away win at 5/4.
Austria Vienna aren’t playing well at the moment. They’re without a win in four games and have lost two of them, one of which was a demoralising defeat to bitter rivals Rapid Vienna, a game which saw Austria Vienna’s frustrations peak with two men being dismissed for them. The upshot of this is that Milenko Acimovic now misses this key game and Austria Vienna frankly cannot function without this player. It’s bad enough that Austria Vienna are obtaining such poor results due to not scoring goals but now they’re missing their most creative player so look set for yet another long and ultimately disappointing game.
Salzburg are rolling on as they always do and have won two out of their last three games, drawing the other. Whereas Salzburg are far from potent at the moment, they remain a tower of efficiency with their last away game resulting in an away win despite facing title rivals Rapid Vienna. Salzburg might not have a good record here in head-to-heads but today is the opportune moment for that to change with Austria Vienna without a goal scored in three games and Salzburg grinding on with their machine-esque efficiency.
Verdict: Salzburg to win at 5/4.
Germinal Beerschot vs Club Brugge – away win at 4/5.
Germinal Beerschot are good at home but haven’t been good at home for a while, if you know what I mean! They’ve got a good record at home, basically, but that’s largely due to early season form. They’ve not won in nine games, losing six of them, so morale is rock-bottom and the hosts today simply aren’t scoring goals as a result.
Club Brugge are one of the giants of this league and indeed this country and tend to emphasise that where applicable. Their record of late isn’t flattering on the road but I would hasten to point out that they have faced the likes of Zulte-Waregem, Anderlecht, and AA Gent on the road in recent times so it’s not surprising that they’re not loving their away games currently. However, they remain a very good side and are having a good season too. They’re one of the best sides in the division on the road so should have enough to beat an unconvincing and goal-shy Germinal today.
Verdict: Club Brugge to win at 4/5.
Standard de Liege vs AA Gent – home win at 5/6.
Standard de Liege are back! Well, they’re on their way back at least. There’s a lot of work to do to repair the mental damage caused in this side this season but Standard are beginning to look like the machines that they are again, something which may well have come about due to some excellent performance s in the UEFA Europa League. I wouldn’t have touched Standard a few weeks ago but they’re starting to look a real threat again and frankly odds of 5/6 on a win for any Standard side must be given some thought!
AA Gent are one of the best away sides in the Eerste Klasse currently so caution must be taken here. However, they’re not yet at the level of the “big three” in Belgium so the hosts today still have the edge quality-wise. Gent haven’t won any of their last three away games consecutively so they are looking a little vulnerable on the road. They remind me of Aston Villa in that they’re looking stretched at this time of year and this is the kind of ground you don’t want to visit in anythingbut full throttle. Gent lost here last season and I don’t see why the same won’t occur again today due to mental fatigue of the visitors and the mental rejuvenation of the hosts.
Verdict: Standard de Liege to win at 5/6.
Deportivo Cali vs America de Cali – home win at 11/10.
A Colombian derby always spells two things; goals and cards. That’s not an unfamiliar listing for any derby but Colombia is what I would personally call the most violent place on the planet as far as football goes. They’re quite simply all nutters so you get the idea of how passionate the fans are about such games.
The Cali derby has lessened in recent times due to both sides failing to launch a legitimate Primera A title challenge but the passion is still there. Deportivo Cali have won this game for three out of the last four meetings at home so have the mental edge. Deportivo Cali have been strong at home this season with two wins and one draw from three home games whilst scoring over two goals per game on average and conceding just twice. America de Cali have lost all three of their away games in the Primera A this season and are still yet to register an away goal so both head-to-heads and current form point to the home win today. It’s a derby so approach with caution but there’s too much favouring Deportivo Cali for them to do anything but win this game.
Verdict: Deportivo Cali to win at 11/10.
Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav – away win at 11/8.
For the same reason that Kladno vs Viktoria Plzen yesterday was played at a neutral venue, Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav is also being played at a neutral venue. As a result, Bohemians’ one strength – home advantage – is gone so look set to struggle today. Mlada Boleslav have been poor since returning from the winter break but there’s no denying that they’re the better of these two sides. Had this game been played at the original venue then I’d have probably left it but frankly Mlada Boleslav should be able to win this game at a neutral venue with their eyes shut and limbs severed off! Neither side are playing well so keep punts low but ultimately I can’t ignore odds of 11/8 on the “away” win today.
Verdict: Mlada Boleslav to win at 11/8.
OB Odense vs AGF Aarhus – lay OB Odense at 15/8.
OB’s odds are way too short for this game. For OB to be 1/3 to beat AGF, I’d expect the opponents to be three divisions below them and to all be dead. OB are playing well this season as they did last season but the bookies are fools if they think that they’re some kind of new FC Copenhagen because they’re simply not. They’re a good side with some excellent efficiency but they’re not world-beaters. This has been shown consistently since their return from the winter break as they drew at Midtylland and also at home to lowly SonderjyskE. OB aren’t in any kind of shape to win this game comfortably so I expect them to struggle.
In my opinion, OB and AGF have little between them quality-wise. AGF have also been poor since returning from the winter break but remain a competent side that are hard to beat, parciularly on the road where they’ve lost just four times in nine games. AGF don’t score many goals but shouldn’t have to against a somewhat goal-shy OB Odense.
Basically, OB’s odds are way too short and I’m not sure how the bookies have reached this set of odds. OB have a great head-to-head record against AGF, that’s true, but both sides look shaky at the moment and both revert to Plan B when that occurs, which is solid defending. I can see a draw here but either way the value is definitely in laying the hosts rather than backing them today.
Verdict: Lay OB Odense at 15/8.
Manchester United vs Liverpool – lay Manchester United at 11/10.
It pains me to make this call as a United fan myself but the odds on United to win are too short at 8/11 and I won’t be touching them at beneath evens. United have lost their last three games against Liverpool consecutively in rather humiliating fashion. I don’t think anyone is here to make the claim that Liverpool are better than United because they’re simply not. However, what is undeniable of late is that Liverpool want to beat United more than the other way around as this is their cup final nowadays with hopes of actual silverware generally contiually evading them. United have been playing well lately but we’ve been playing well before facing Liverpool before and lost. United have to match their energy and if they do then United should win but I’m not going to take that chance. The value is in laying United today given their constant ability to bottle it in recent encounters between the two sides and I for one won’t be backing the home win at 8/11 although I’ll be over the moon if United do win, naturally!
Verdict: Lay Manchester United at 11/10.
Kavala vs Larissa – home win at 13/10.
Kavala have been a revelation in the Super League this season, particularly at home, due to their physical but efficient football. They’ve won three out of their last five games so bring some good momentum into this game. Only one side has beaten them here this season so they’re a strong home side. Their biggest flaw is not scoring enough goals but a Larissa side that struggle on the road should help them out there! Larissa have lost nine out of thirteen away games this season and although they’re capable of being much higher up the table currently, they’re not for a reason; because they’re not playing well. They’ve won their last two games consecutively so be wary of their momentum but any side that concedes nearly two goals per away game whilst scoring just over a goal per every two away games should struggle at a strong host.
Verdict: Kavala to win at 13/10.
Levadiakos vs Panthrakikos – lay Levadiakos at 10/3.
Where do the bookies get this shit from?? Levadiakos for some inane reason are 1/7 to win this game. 1/7!!! I wouldn’t put them at 1/7 to beat a team of Asian U4’s!!! Levadiakos are a decent side at best and are reliable at home but how on earth they’ve earned odds of 1/7 will evade me forever. This side barely averages scoring more than a goal per home game so why these odds are so short baffles me. Panthrakikos are a poor side, particularly on the road, so I can understand why they’re clear favourites to lose this game. However, the odds don’t appear to reflect the fact that they’ve won two out of their last three away games in convincing fashion against two bloody good home sides – Aris Salonika and Larissa respectively – where even the “big two” have struggled this season. Hell, Panthrakikos won away to those two sides without even conceding so pricing them at outlandish odds just doesn’t make sense to me.
Frankly, Levadiakos aren’t that good aren’t Panthrakikos aren’t that bad so I’ll be having a good ol’ nibble of laying Levadiakos at phenomenally generous odds of 10/3.
Verdict: Lay Levadiakos at 10/3.
Atalanta Bergamo vs Livorno – home win at 21/20.
I think it’s fair to say that this game will not be an advert for the beautiful game. We have two out-of-form sides who will fight tooth and nail to take three points here to climb away from the drop zone. I’m favouring Atalanta because they’re more experienced in this situation, because Bergamo is a tough away game for any side, and because Atalanta have marginally better players. Livorno are terrible on the road and struggle to score goals so we should see at most one goal today, if indeed any. However, odds of 21/20 for the better side to win looks inviting to me irrespective of a lack of goals and form from both sides – there’s certainly some value in it so let’s hope the hosts show up today and make it worthwhile!
Verdict: Atalanta Bergamo to win at 21/20.
Sandefjord vs Molde – away win at 5/6.
Sandefjord have had their honeymoon season; they’re now in for the real test. Sandefjord drastically over-achieved last season and I expect them to struggle immensely this season due to a reality check! They’ve already been brought down to earth by a dominant Start Kristiansand who beat them 2-0 on the first game of the season. Sandefjord now have the unenviable task of taking on the second best side in the Eliteserien currently and stand no chance, in my opinion.
Molde lost their opening game at home to reigning champions Rosenborg BK 1-2. It was a valiant display from the hosts and they were unlucky to lose against Rosenborg. Well, who isn’t unlucky to lose against Rosenborg? I’ve never come across a side that wins so often whilst playing so poorly! However, Molde showed a lot of encouraging sides and their midfield is still arguably the best in the Eliteserien so they remain a very real threat. Molde’s problems during the Rosenborg game were not taking their chances. Sandefjord’s weak defence should give them ample opportunities to correct that today so I’ll be surprised if they don’t take advantage of that.
Molde are basically twice the side that Sandefjord are and I expect it to show today!
Verdict: Molde to win at 5/6.
Viking Stavanger vs Brann Bergen – home win at evens.
This derby sees moneybags Viking Stavanger finally launching their first Eliteserien campaign where they’ve actually looked as good as they should be. Ironically, they looked the part during their opening game day game at Valerenga Oslo and still managed to lose despite dominating for large periods of the game. Viking remain a good side and should have taken at least some comfort from their game at Valerenga, enough so to take the game to Brann Bergen tonight.
Brann were held to a goalless draw at home to newly-promoted Haugesund on their first game of the new season thanks partially to an ineffectual attack and partially to some inspired goalkeeping. Brann are a funny side like that as they’re capable of beating the best and losing to the worst – they’re notorious for it. Brann have lost three out of their last five visits here and don’t travel well in general anyway so should succumb somewhat easily tonight.
A derby is a derby so do be careful with this one, particularly as it’s early season. However, Viking played well during their opening game and Brann didn’t, simply. Neither side scored in their respective games but I’m expecting at least one of them to do so tonight. Either way, the value is with the home side tonight so hopefully it’ll come off!
Verdict: Viking Stavanger to win at evens.
Otelul Galati vs Dinamo Bucharest – away win at 13/10.
Otelul Galati have served me well with bets of late but I fear that their usefulness has now run its course. They claimed a valuable 0-0 draw at reigning champions Unirea last match but now face yet another heavyweight side and one I frankly don’t believe they can deal with. They’ve beaten an out-of-sorts Cluj at home and lost a well-fought game at Steaua Bucharest but could be set to lose at home for the first time against any of the Romanian heavyweights this season. Otelul are traditionally a strong home side but have lost their last two home games against Dinamo Bucharest without even scoring a goal, something which I imagine will be replicated today.
Out of all the Romanian heavyweights, it’s Dinamo Bucharest who have convinced me the most since returning from the winter break. Although they let themselves down by drawing at home to Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt, they have also overcome a resilient Universitatea Craiova, won two derbies emphatically (one lesser derby at International and one massive derby at home to Steaua), and forced Cluj into a 2-2 draw at their own ground. Dinamo Bucharest are basically playing very well and should be too much for Otelul tonight.
Otelul defend well but don’t score enough. For Dinamo to win today, they need to score the first goal by using their strong momentum and that should be enough for them to win the game. Unlike most of their contemporaries, Dinamo can generally hold a lead and Otelul are the kind of side that is unlikely to break a lead so the away win does represent value today in my opinion.
Verdict: Dinamo Bucharest to win at 13/10.
St.Gallen vs Basel – away win at 10/11.
St.Gallen have been good at home in the Super League following promotion last season but odds of this calibre tend to indicate that the bookies don’t recognise that they are in fact a newly-promoted side. I feel they’re giving the hosts too much respect as they host one of the giants of Swiss football – Basel. St.Gallen can hold their own against most Swiss sides but Basel should be too much for them. St.Gallen don’t concede many at home but their lack of goals scored tells me that a rampant Basel should be able to do the damage today. Basel have already won seven out of twelve away games this season and have won four out of their last five games so bring strong momentum into this game. With quality and momentum on their side, it’s hard to overlook Basel winning this game at rather generous odds.
Verdict: Basel to win at 10/11.
Accumulator fodder:
Independiente, Montpellier HSC, Anderlecht, VFL Wolfsburg, Olympiakos Volos, Panserraikos, Pumas UNAM, Santos Laguna, Groningen, AZ Alkmaar, AFC Ajax Amsterdam, Lech Poznan, Steaua Bucharest, Slovan Bratislava, Barcelona, Valencia CF, FC Zurich.
Recommended bets:
Anderlecht, Montpellier HSC, VFL Wolfsburg, and Cagliari at 8/1.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam, AZ Alkmaar, Viking Stavanger, and Lech Poznan at 5/1.
Groningen, Molde, Steaua Bucharest, and Slovan Bratislava at 5/1.
Barcelona, Valencia CF, Basel, and Dinamo Bucharest at 9/1.
Independiente, Deportivo Cali, Santos Laguna, and Pumas UNAM at 8/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Boca Juniors vs River Plate (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Independiente vs Rosario Central (8) 1-0
Gimnasia De La Plata vs Arsenal de Sarandi (6) 2-1
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Banfield (4) 1-1
Austrian Bundesliga:
Austria Vienna vs Salzburg (7) 0-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Germinal Beerschot vs Club Brugge (7) 1-2
Roeselare vs Westerlo (5) 0-1
Cercle Brugge vs Sint-Truiden (6) 2-1
Mechelen vs Zulte-Waregem (6) 0-0
Standard de Liege vs AA Gent (7) 1-0
Racing Genk vs Kortrijk (8) 1-1
Lokeren vs Anderlecht (8) over 2.5 goals
Belgian Tweede Klasse:
Oostende vs Eupen (5)
OH Leuven vs Liege (7)
Bulgarian A PFG:
Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Lokomotiv Sofia (6) 1-1
Lokomotiv Mezdra vs CSKA Sofia (9) 0-2
Colombian Primera A:
Deportes Quindio vs Cortulua (3) 0-1
Cucuta Deportivo vs Envigado (6) 1-0
Once Caldas Manizales vs Deportivo Pereira (6) 1-1
Boyaca Chico vs La Equidad Bogota (6) 2-1
Deportivo Cali vs America de Cali (7) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Cypriot Division 1:
Enosis Neon Paralimni vs Anorthosis Famagusta (7) 0-1
APOEL Nicosia vs Omonia Nicosia (5) 0-0
APOP/Kinyras vs Apollon Limassol (5) 1-1
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav (6) 1-2
Danish Superligaen:
HB Koge vs Aalborg BK (6) 0-1
OB Odense vs AGF Aarhus (4) 1-1
Nordsjaelland vs Esbjerg (6) 1-1
SonderjyskE vs FC Copenhagen (7) 1-2
Danish 1st Division:
Fyn vs AB Copenhagen (6)
Kolding vs Thisted (5)
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Deportivo Quito vs Deportivo Cuenca (4) 0-1
Olmedo Riobamba vs Macara Ambato (6) 1-1
El Nacional Quito vs Independiente (7) 1-0
Espoli Cayambe vs Barcelona Guayaquil (6) 0-0
English Premier League:
Manchester United vs Liverpool (3) 1-1
Fulham vs Manchester City (6) 1-0
Blackburn Rovers vs Chelsea (4) 1-1
English Championship:
Leicester City vs Coventry City (6) under 2.5 goals
Cardiff City vs Watford (6) over 2.5 goals
French Ligue 1:
Girondins de Bordeaux vs LOSC Lille (7) 1-0
Montpellier HSC vs Valenciennes (8) 2-1
Olympique de Marseille vs Olympique Lyonnais (7) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
German Bundesliga:
Hamburger SV vs Schalke 04 (6) 1-1
VFL Wolfsburg vs Hertha HSC Berlin (8) over 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga 2:
Rot-Weiss Oberhausen vs Karlsruher SC (5)
Union Berlin vs Alemannia Aachen (6)
1860 Munich vs FSV Frankfurt (7)
Greek Super League:
Ergotelis vs Iraklis (6) 1-1
Kavala vs Larissa (6) 1-0
PAS Giannina vs Atromitos (6) 0-0
PAOK Salonika vs AEK Athens (5) under 2.5 goals
Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Panionios vs Aris Salonika (5) 1-1
Xanthi vs Asteras Tripolis (5) 1-0
Levadiakos vs Panthrakikos (4) 1-1
Greek B Ethniki:
Agrotikos Asteras vs Kerkyra (5)
Ilioupoli vs OFI Crete (6)
Ionikos Nikaias vs Anagennisi Karditsas (6)
Olympiakos Volos vs Aigaleo Athens (9)
Panserraikos vs Rhodos (8)
Thrasivoulos vs Doxa Dramas (6)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Lombard Papa vs Ujpest (6) 0-1
International Friendly:
Iceland vs Faroe Islands (8) -1.75 handicap
Irish Premier League:
Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk (5) 1-0
Italian Serie A:
Siena vs Bologna (7) 1-1
Chievo Verona vs Catania (7) 1-1
Cagliari vs Lazio (8) 2-0
Atalanta Bergamo vs Livorno (6) 1-0
AC Milan vs SSC Napoli (6) 1-0
Bari vs Parma (5) under 2.5 goals
Sampdoria vs Juventus (5) 1-1
Japanese J-League:
Montedio Yamagata vs Urawa Red Diamonds (6) 1-2
Nagoya Grampus vs Jubilo Iwata (6) over 2.5 goals
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Tauras Taurage vs Zalgiris Vilnius (5) 0-0
Banga Gargzdai vs Atletas (7) 2-0
Mexican Primera Division:
Pumas UNAM vs Jaguares (8) under 2.5 goals
Indios vs Queretaro (5) 1-2
Santos Laguna vs Puebla (8) over 2.5 goals
America vs Pachuca (7) 2-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
RKC Waalwijk vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (10) -2.75 handicap
ADO Den Haag vs VVV Venlo (5) 1-1
Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar (7) 1-2
Groningen vs Roda JC Kerkrade (7) 2-0
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Sandefjord vs Molde (7) 1-2
Lillestrom vs Tromso (5) 1-1
Honefoss vs Aalesunds (6) 1-1
Kongsvinger vs Odd Grenland Skien (7) 1-2
Haugesund vs Stromsgodset (5) 0-0
Viking Stavanger vs Brann Bergen (7) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Piast Gliwice vs Polonia Bytom (5) 1-1
Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia Bialystok (8) over 2.5 goals
Romanian Liga:
Universitatea Craiova vs Politehnica Iasi (7) 2-1
Otelul Galati vs Dinamo Bucharest (6) 0-1
International vs Gloria Bistrita (6) 1-1
Steaua Bucharest vs Gaz Metan Medias (8) under 2.5 goals
Russian Premier League:
Zenit St.Petersburg vs Spartak Moscow (6) 2-1
CSKA Moscow vs Dinamo Moscow (6) 1-1, at l;east one red card in this game
Serbian Super Liga:
Rad Belgrade vs Mladi Radnik (6) 2-1
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Slovan Bratislava vs Senica (8) 2-0
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Koper vs Nafta Lendava (7) 2-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Malaga vs Villarreal (6) 1-1
Real Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid (6) 2-1
Osasuna vs Racing Santander (6) 1-1
Valencia CF vs Almeria (7) over 2.5 goals
Real Zaragoza vs Barcelona (8) over 2.5 goals
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Real Sociedad vs Levante (6)
Girona vs Numancia (5)
Huesca vs Salamanca (6)
Cadiz vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (6)
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Djurgardens vs Helsingborgs (5) 0-0
Trelleborg vs Kalmar (6) 1-1
Mjallby Solvesborg vs GAIS Goteborg (5) 1-0
Swiss Super League:
Neuchatel Xamax vs Aarau (6) 2-1
St.Gallen vs Basel (7) 1-2
FC Zurich vs Bellinzona (8) 2-0
Swiss Challenge League:
Schaffhausen vs Gossau (7)
Winterthur vs Le Mont (8) over 2.5 goals
Stade Nyonnais vs Thun (7) over 2.5 goals
Turkish Super Lig:
Ankaragucu vs Kayserispor (6) 1-1
Sivasspor vs Genclerbirligi (6) 0-0
Trabzonspor vs Galatasaray (6) 1-1
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Atletico El Vigia vs Trujillanos (8) 2-0
Zulia vs Carabobo (6) 1-0
Aragua vs Llaneros de Guanare (6) 2-1
Zamora vs Real Esppor Club (5) 1-1
Deportivo Tachira vs Yaracuyanos (8) 2-0
Deportivo Anzoategui vs Estudiantes de Merida (7) 2-1
Welsh Premier League:
Neath Athletic vs Haverfordwest County (4) 1-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!