Cesena vs AS Roma
FreeToday’s featured game is the Serie A encounter between relegation-threatened Cesena and tite hopefuls AS Roma.
Cesena are just a point clear of the relegation zone and with only bottom club Bari having scored less goals than they have this season, it’s hard to envision a happy ending to their Serie A dream. Cesena actually took a draw from their trip to the Stadio Olimpico at the start of the season as AS Roma laid siege to the Cesena goal but were unable to score against ex-goalkeeper Antonioli. However, Cesena welcome Roma today in a much wearier fashion with their Serie A campaign having been hard on them physically and mentally. The demands of Serie A football are not to be taken lightly and although I doubt Cesena have approach this season with any complacency, they’re finding out the hard way how difficult this division can be. Defensively, Cesena have been fairly decent this season but in attack they’ve really struggled. Only experienced Albanian target man Bogdani has contributed to the Cesena attack wholly with four goals whereas Luis Jimenez has contributed with three goals from midfield. Barring those two players, Cesena really struggle to create chances and score chances so you can see why Cesena struggle. They’ve done quite well since the winter break, winning 1-2 at relegation rivals Brescia and drawing 0-0 at home to Genoa so they do bring some momentum into this game. However, a lack of goal threat in their attack leaves me feeling that they’re going to struggle to take anything off a very good Roma side today.
Visitors AS Roma aren’t great travellers, hence you won’t see me backing them away from home often. Indeed, I was tempted to back them at Sampdoria in their last away game but refrained due to being nervous about how easily Roma shoot themselves in the foot away from home, which is unsurprisingly exactly what happened as they threw away a one-goal lead and lost 2-1. Despite the absence of Sergio and Mexes today, Roma should still have enough to claim a rare away win against Cesena. Ranieri has done a very good job with Roma and his midfield is one of the best in the country, in my view. As long as Roma keep their cool (for a change!) in this game then they really should have too much for little Cesena. Menez, Vucinic, and Totti are all dangerous players on their day and although I wouldn’t be surprised if Roma conceded with no Mexes in the team, I would be surprised to see them not win this game when they really need to win.
Roma haven’t been at their best since returning from the winter break and yet they’ve still bagged five goals in two games so I think this is the kind of problem that you don’t excessively mind as a manager as you know things will get better in due course. Ranieri may even view hosts Cesena as the much-needed catalyst for Roma’s season today so I expect a spirited show from the visitors. Cesena fortunately miss important players Nagatomo (defender) and Schletto (midfielder) so they shouldn’t be at their impenetrable best today. Roma away from home will never be a “dead cert” in my eyes but with the Scudetto in their sights and a side in front of them that they’re a lot better than, backing Roma to win at evens appeals to me today.
Team news – Cesena miss Nagatomo and Schletto whereas AS Roma miss Julio Sergio, Mexes, and Pizarro.
Verdict: AS Roma to win at evens.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips;
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Peru U20 vs Chile U20 – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
This is one of the two Copa Sudamericano U20 games being played today, which is the first day of the tournament. It involves hosts Peru and neighbours Chile so we should see a fairly feisty game here.
Unsurprisingly, Peru have named the highest (altitude-wise) of their three venues – Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustin in Arequipa – as their venue for this tricky game. This gives Peru a hefty advantage as Chile very rarely have any kind of altitude to contend with domestically so there’s a slight inclination towards Peru here. However, that is countered by the fact that Chile has a very promising U20 side, the majority of which I enjoyed watching immensely at the Toulon Tournament last year.
Both squads have promising players and I expect a pretty open game here. To be honest, most games at these tournaments are very open with players keen to seek moves abroad so expecting plenty of goals should become pretty standard. In my view, Chile are better than Peru but Peru’s altitude advantage and home support will shake things up a bit here. I’m not going to enter the 1×2 market here because it doesn’t make sense to but there’s more than enough factors here to presume that this game will clear 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Ethnikos Achnas vs AEK Larnaca – away win at 13/10.
I went against AEK Larnaca last week when they faced Doxa and although what I wrote in the preview was correct, Doxa didn’t bother showing up and were trounced by arising AEK. AEK have financial clout, hence good players like Hofland in their side, and if they play as well as they did last week then I fancy them a lot here.
The ability of AEK is not in question here; all that is in question is how able they are to win games like this after a long season. They showed against Doxa that it’s not a problem at the moment so perhaps the break has done them good as prior to the break they looked very vulnerable. However, I’ll give AEK their due respect here as their win at Doxa was nowhere near as easy as they made it seem.
Hosts Ethnikos Achnas have a reputation of being hard to beat and that should be the same today, hence the bookies’ generous odds on the away win. Despite only winning three out of their eight home games this season, they’ve only lost twice along the way due to solid defending and unadventurous tactics, hence them not scoring many either. However, the absence of Eduardo in midfield today will hurt the functionality of this side and that’s never a good thing for a thin squad (talent-wise). They’re going to miss him a lot today and to be honest, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them rest players for their Cypriot Cup game in four days time against Ermis, whom they beat 0-1 in the first leg four days ago.
Indeed, Ethnikos Achnas will be playing three games in eight days and they just don’t have the squad to do it so I fancy them to rest a few players here. The Cup should take priority for obvious reasons as their domestic campaign is somewhat irrelevant at the moment and if they do that then I think AEK really should win this game.
Either way, with Eduardo out and potentially tired players in their ranks, I certainly don’t think that Ethnikos will bring their usual tactics to this game and deploy them with as much tenacity as usual. In my view, Ethnikos are there for the taking and an impressive AEK should be carefully considered as winners for this game whilst the odds are as decent as 13/10.
Team news – Ethnikos Achnas miss Eduardo.
Verdict: AEK Larnaca to win at 13/10.
Ermis vs Doxa – over 2.5 goals at evens.
Although I was sorely tempted to ay Ermis at evens, I’m going to stick with over 2.5 goals here. Why?
Well, my logic is simple, really. This is a must-win game for both sides in the relegation battle that inevitably looms ahead so both sides should do their fair share of attacking. However, these two sides are polar opposites with Ermis being a very defensive side and Doxa being a very attacking side, which is why I find the odds on the home win laughably short when considering that you have to outscore Doxa to beat them – a single goal usually doesn’t suffice.
However, I’m going to avoid the 1×2 market here – Doxa really let me down with a mediocre display against AEK Larnaca and Ermis were poor at home to AEL Limassol in their 0-0 draw and also at home to Ethnikos Achnas last match in the Cypriot Cup, failing to score in both games. As I mentioned earlier though – this is a big game that both sides need to win so I expect a pretty open game here.
Even if it’s not open – Doxa will make it so. They’ve drawn sympathetic glances from Cypriot fans for their attacking displays despite their difficult placing in the league but it takes a lot more than sympathy to avoid relegation. Doxa attack relentlessly nonetheless and do have some good attacking players so they should have some joy against tedious Ermis today. However, Doxa’s defending is shambolic at best so anything can happen here. For me, this game has to go over 2.5 goals and odds of evens are good enough to take a chance on today.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Olympiakos Nicosia vs Anorthosis Famagusta – over 2.5 goals at 3/4.
The away win at evens intrigued me a lot here but I have far too much respect for Olympiakos Nicosia so I’ll avoid it for now.
The thing with Olympiakos is that they don’t have a lot of interest in winning games. Indeed, it seems like they’re only motivated when they fall behind and at that point in time, you will not find a more tenacious side in Cypriot football. Olympiakos Nicosia will do absolutely anything to avoid defeat but just don’t seem to care about winning, bizarrely. Olympiakos have won 50% of their home games so far this season but we should also point out that they’re one of the leading draw specalists in the division due to their hunger in avoiding defeat. Olympiakos score a lot and concede a lot, as you may expect from a newly-promoted side, but their football is good and their respect for their old club is immense so you’ll always see a committed Olympiakos display. Their current dogged tactics have led them to over 2.5 goals scorelines in four out of their last six home games in Division 1 and considering that Olympiakos hosted inferior sides to Anorthosis in all four games, I think it’s fair to expect more of the same today.
Anorthosis got off to the dream start under new manager Stoilov by beating rivals APOEL Nicosia so they bring tremendous momentum into this game. I was – and still am – tempted to back them to continue that burst of momentum today as their away record this season doesn’t reflect how good this side actually is. However, on the basis that there may still be teething issues, I’m going to overlook it for this game. That said, what I cannot ignore is that Anorthosis looked good against APOEL but most of all, they looked potent, something which has evaded them rather often this season. They look to be back in business now and that means goals. If Anorthosis score first, however, then you can expect Olympiakos to battle back as they almost always do so we should have a great game on our hands here.
For me, this game has over 2.5 goals written all over it. I still think Anorthosis will edge it but Olympiakos make a win against them easy for absolutely nobody so we should see an entertaining match here. Either way, over 2.5 goals is slightly generously priced at 3/4 so that’s my call here today.
Team news – Anorthosis Famagausta miss Laborde, Ramos, and Michail.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 3/4.
Birmingham City vs Aston Villa – home win at 7/5.
Perhaps somewhat foolishly, I’ve decided to try my hand on the Birmingham derby today because the home side has a good chance of taking three points and the odds are good enough to take a chance on. I cannot stress enough that caution must be used, however!
Nonetheless, Birmingham really should be able to take three points here. They’re notoriously strong at St.Andrews when it comes to keeping opponents out, controlling the game in their battling 4-5-1, and taking their chances. Birmingham aren’t your average goalscoring side but they should be able to score a few today, partially because Aston Villa under Gerard Houllier cannot defend (and have demonstrated it many times over the past few months!) and partially because Alex McLeish has already highlighted Birmingham’s most problematic area being their attack, hence his signature of Republic of Ireland international Robbie Keane whilst also moving for experienced Scottish striker Kenny Miller, with whom he’s worked before. Whether Keane will be able to play today or not I don’t honestly know but if not then the likes of Zigic should be working very hard in this game to keep their place – or else! The loss of defender Dann before this game is a blow for Birmingham but this side plays very well as a unit so I don’t expect too much in the way of reprcussions here. Only a handful of sides have conceded less home goals than Birmingham have this season, as was the case last season, so you can expect a strong defensive display from the hosts today. Will their attacking problems finally be resolved though? I guess that’s the main question and for me, the arrival of Keane will either set the other players off trying harder or he’ll solve the problem himself so I do think Birmingham will be a force in this game.
I’ve not made any secret of my lack of respect for Houllier and the job he’s doing at Aston Villa because he genuinely gives off the impression that he doesn’t know what he’s doing. O’Neill built a Villa side that knew how to defend and in a few short months, Houllier has made this side more vulnerable at the back than Blackpool and West Bromwich Albion combined, in my humble opinion! Only Blackburn Rovers have conceded more goals away from home than Aston Villa have in the Premier League this season with Villa averaging conceding 2.5 goals per away game. It also doesn’t help that they average scoring less than a goal per away game too, hence them worryingly being in the relegation zone at the moment. Houllier talks a good game – he even says he wants to bring in Karim Benzema from Real Madrid hahaha you fucking idiot, Houllier – but the fact is that Benzema is not here now and Houllier needs to start working with what he’s got. Signing Makoun from Olympique Lyonnais was a great move, in my view – very strong holding midfielder – but Houllier needs to address Villa’s defensive instability or he’s going to get them relegated – it’s that simple. Dunne can only defend under some managers, which leaves Villa with only hard-working Collins as their reliable centre-back – it’s just not enough. They’ve not dealt with the absence of Luke Young at right-back well at all with Cuellar filling in there more often than not despite only being able to play at centre-back or left-back. Villa do have some talented attacking players, which you could be forgiven for thinking would balance out their defensive issues but I disagree; there’s no merit in scoring once if you concede three times in the same game, for example.
Therefore, I have to expect Villa to lose here. They’ve lost most of their away games already this season so why not their derby today? They miss creative winger Ashley Young through suspension, influential midfielder Stephen Ireland, target man Emile Heskey, and long-term absentees Luke Young and Fabian Delph. Villa welcome back Carew but will he be played following Houllier’s unkind words for his lanky striker? I doubt it. For me, Villa not only have defensive issues ahead of this game but attacking issues too so that makes the home win at 7/5 look very interesting indeed.
Team news – Birmingham City miss Dann and McFadden whereas Aston Villa miss Heskey, Ashley Young, Delph, Ireland, and Luke Young.
Verdict: Birmingham City to win at 7/5.
Sunderland vs Newcastle United – home win at evens.
Yes, I’m getting involved in yet another English derby – I must be insane!
I do have to fancy Sunderland here, though. Steve Bruce was livid with his team as they were demolished 5-1 by Newcastle United in the reversal of this fixture so the mackems will be out for revenge today and they’re very well-placed to obtain it, too.
Sunderland may have Cattermole back for this game, which is a lot earlier than expected – that’d be a massive boost for Bruce’s boys. Danny Welbeck has a slight knock too but he should play in this game either way. Aside from those two, Bruce has a largely full squad to choose from and when he’s had that luxury so far this season, he’s tended to make it count. Indeed, Sunderland have been so good at home than only Manchester United and Chelsea can match their strong defensive record of having conceded just seven goals at home all season long. Sunderland don’t score as many as they should when you consider the wealth of attacking options avaialble to them but they do tend to win their home games, winning six out of eleven at the Stadium of Light already this season, drawing four times, and losing just once along the way. All in all, Sunderland have been very strong at home this season and I can’t overlook that ahead of this Tyne-Wear derby.
Of course, it helps massively that Newcastle United are not in the best of positions at the moment. There’s no Andy Carroll in attack, which is a massive bodyblow as they look very weak in attack without him. They’ve only done well against West Ham United without him and that was due to West Ham United’s defensive capitulation so I don’t have much faith in Newcastle here. They’re also missing integral centre-back Steven Taylor for this game, not to mention suspended Tiote in midfield and having doubts over experienced defender Sol Campbell so Pardew’s geordies aren’t well-placed at all here. Newcastle have already lost 50% of their away games this season due to not scoring enough goals and with no Carroll available today, I don’t see that improving here. Let’s face it – if they can’t handle Stevenage away from home without him then I don’t see them being able to handle their bitter rivals today either!
For me, this game looks like a home win. There’s one key area that I’ve not yet address that I feel will be pivotal to Sunderland’s success and that’s the right flank. Egyptian winger Al Muhammadi operates that flank and although he’s gone through this season without any real praise or without being singled out for his displays, he’s been a very shrewd signing for Bruce with his consistency and pinpoint crosses and he’s been absolutely invaluable to Sunderland this season. That’s indicated by the fact that only Henderson has played more games for Sunderland this season and it’s about time the Egyptian got some credit – he’s impressed me a lot this season. If Newcastle don’t contain him, which they probably won’t as Jose Enrique tends to slot in there, then Newcastle should lose this game comfortably as Sunderland do a lot of damage down the flanks.
Either way – the home win at evens interests me an awful lot today.
Team news – Sunderland miss Campbell, Turner, Meyler, Carson, and Mensah whilst having doubts over Welbeck and Cattermole whereas Newcastle United miss Carroll, Ben Arfa, Tiote, Taylor, and have doubts over Campbell.
Verdict: Sunderland to win at evens.
Liverpool vs Everton – Louis Saha anytime goalscorer at 5/2.
I’m not going to touch the 1×2 market of this derby because anything can happen in these games.
However, I am interested in backing Saha to score anytime. Why? Well, he’s one of those weird strikers who plays entirely on confidence. When he’s scored once, he tends to go on a run for a couple of months where he scores in each game. However, when he’s out of confidence, he can barely find the woodwork, let alone the back of the net. Saha has bagged for two consecutive games now and his overall game has looked better as a result, which is fortunate for Everton as they looked screwed without Cahill. Saha is a very clever and able striker and for me, I think there’s a damn good chance that he’ll score today. Liverpool’s defending all season long has been terrible, especially without the experience of Carragher back there and even minnows Blackpool exploited that with a 2-1 win mid-week. Liverpool’s attacking is improving but their defending is not so I fancy Everton to cause the problems here, especially from set pieces. For me, 5/2 is too long on Saha to score anytime and with him playing so well at the moment, I have to take advantage of that today, especially with Liverpool unlikely to play well as there’s no Gerrard today, who is still suspended.
Team news – Liverpool miss Carragher, Gerrard, and Spearing whereas Everton miss Cahill, Jagielka, and Barkley.
Verdict: Louis Saha to score anytime at 5/2.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hannover 96 – away win with draw no bet at 13/8.
Statistically speaking, Frankfurt look quite strong at home. They’ve won four out of eight home games this season, drawing once, and losing three times along the way. They owe this record to their defence, which has conceded just ten goals in eight home games. Their attack has been somewhat non-existant with just nine goals scored in eight home games so suffice to say that they have to defend well to take points at home.
Well, good news, everyone – most of Frankfurt’s defence misses this game through injury! Frankfurt miss Russ, Vasoski, and Franz from their defence for this game, two of which are regular starters so Frankfurt should really struggle here. Their only method of attack is to utilise the brute Gekas, which is hardly creative or surprising so I don’t see Frankfurt doing too well here at all.
Hannover 96 have impressed me a lot this season, however, and I look forward to seeing more of them in the latter stages of the Bundesliga to see how they fare. They’ve got a strong nucleus and some very able attacking players and although their away record this season doesn’t reflect that very well, I still fancy the away win here. Hannover don’t miss anyone of great importance today so we should see exciting duo Ya Konan and Abdellaoue partnered in attack for Hannover 96 today, which will cause Eintracht Frankfurt’s makeshift defence a lot of problems.
Although Hannover 96 didn’t impress me much whilst pissing around in Turkey earlier this month, playing friendlies, I still think that they’ll win this one today. Or more accurately, this is the best chance that they’ll have to beat the ever-boring and ever-dogged Frankfurt side. Hannover 96 have their best side in years and to overcome their virtually defenceless hosts with a draw no bet cover price of 13/8, I find it very hard indeed to overlook the away win here.
Team news – Eintracht Frankfurt miss Rossl, Bajramovic, Schwegler, Alvarez, Franz, Vasoski, Tosun, and Russ whereas Hannover 96 miss Miller, Burmeister, Hofman, Andreasen, Carlitos, Ernst, Schmiedebach, Evseev, and Rama.
Verdict: Hannover 96 to win with draw no bet at 13/8.
Arminia Bielefeld vs FSV Frankfurt – away win at 7/5.
Arminia Bielefeld have drafted in some players to help stave off the threat of relegation and from what I understand, they’re still looking to do a lot more business this month. However, it’s asking a lot for Ivanov and Denneboom to save this club alone, good signings though they are, so I won’t read too much into their signatures at the moment. What I will read into is that they’re bottom of the Bundesliga 2 with seven defeats in nine home games this season and also the fact that veteran striker Neuville retired back in December, leaving Arminia Bielefeld short of…well, everything in attack, hence the signing of Denneboom. This Arminia side is still going to average conceding two goals per home game, however, so they’re still going to struggle against superior sides like FSV Frankfurt, hence their predicament.
FSV Frankfurt are not the relegation-battlers that they were last season, hence their lofty perch in the Bundesliga 2. They play good football and have a strong midfield; they’ve surprised many sides this season because of it too. They’ve been much more solid at home than away from home but it’s still worth noting that they have won three out of seven away from home, which I think is a pretty presentable record in this difficult division. Only Hertha HSC Berlin have conceded as few away goals as FSV Frankfurt so an impotent Arminia Bielefeld shouldn’t trouble their defence. The big question for me is whether FSV Frankfurt will score enough goals to win the game but I think that they have enough to do so. The attacking threesome of N’Diaye, Molders, and Cidimar have caused a lot of problems this season, especially Molders, so they should trouble a leaky Arminia defence a lot today, just as they did earlier this season in a 2-1 victory.
For me, FSV Frankfurt are far too generously priced here. They’re a very good side this year and they’re playing the worst side in the division. Arminia have improved and will continue to do so but for the present time, I still think going against them is a good idea so the away win at 7/5 intrigues me a lot here.
Team news – Arminia Bielefeld miss Fort, Delura, Fischer, and Lense whereas FSV Frankfurt miss Tufan Tosunoglu and have doubts over Heitmeier.
Verdict: FSV Frankfurt to win at 7/5.
Larissa vs Iraklis – potential fixed game.
Bookies everywhere are pulling this game as it’s a supposedly fixed home win. I’d personally recommend avoiding betting on the game, as with all fixed games, as you never know just where the fixing rumour has come from.
Verdict: Avoid betting on this game
Juventus vs Bari – both sides to score at 11/10.
I think this one speaks for itself, really – one of the worst home defences in Serie A versus one of the worst away defences in Serie A! The problems of Juventus have been well-documented with Sissoko lashing out at the club, Qualiarella suffering the bad injury, Luca Toni being signed to replace him and then getting injured himself, and Juventus playing very badly in general. Things are not perfect for Juve at the moment but maybe today is the day for them to turn things around. I wouldn’t bet on it personally – the odds are a joke – but Juventus can surely at least score here, especially considering Bari’s poor defensive away record. However, no side in Serie A concedes as many home goals as Juve do so I fancy rock-bottom Bari to cause a few waves here. They scored in their 0-1 derby win at Lecce in their last away game and have now signed Hungarian target man Rudolf to bolster their attack so I would treat Bari cautiously here. I think Juventus are capable of conceding against anyone, which is why the home win doesn’t interest me here. The risk comes predominantly from Bari scoring but for me, both sides scoring in a game with two terrible defences is rather generous when priced at 11/10 so that’s my call here.
Team news – Juventus miss Quagliarella, Melo, Toni, Iaquinta, Rinaudo, De Ceglie, and have doubts over Sissoko whereas Bari miss Barreto, Almiron, Ghezzal, and Masiello.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 11/10.
Catania vs Chievo Verona – over 2.5 goals at 27/20.
This is more speculative than factual but I still like it a lot. Chievo are one of the best counter-attacking sides in Serie A and although they’ve been very ineffectual lately, I would still urge you all not to write them off. Chievo are not an easy side to play against at home, contrary to popular belief – they’ve got a very swift attack – so I think they’ll trouble Catania here. However, Catania are very strong in Sicily with just two defeats in ten home games in Serie A, winning five times along the way, so they too can’t be understimated here. I’d normally be tempted to take the home win here but injuries and a congested fixture schedule really puts me off.
Instead, I’m going to plump for over 2.5 goals here. For a lower-placed team, Catania score a lot of goals, especially with powerful striker Maxi Lopez in good form so they should be a threat here. However, Catania have been playing in the Coppa Italia lately whereas Chievo Verona haven’t so Catania are more tired. Catania do have depth in their team but they’ve played AS Roma, Internazionale, and Juventus in the past ten days and now they have a tough game with Chievo without some important players (i.e. Izco, Biagianti, Potenza, Alvarez, Terlizzi etc.) so I don’t fancy them at all here. Catania are missing important defenders for this one so we should see Chievo bounce back from recent poor form with a good display. I’d not like to call this one on the 1×2 front but over 2.5 goals looks intriguing at 27/20.
Team news – Catania miss Morimoto, Izco, Biagianti, Delvecchio, Potenza, Terlizzi, and Alvarez whereas Chievo Verona miss Luciano.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 27/20.
Brescia vs Parma – over 2.5 goals at 27/20.
This one follows a very similar vein to the above preview as it’s more speculative than statistical. Basically, this is a relegation six-pointer and both sides know it. Both sides have come out raring to go after the winter break and as a result, the two sides have both played two games which have gone over 2.5 goals due to sloppy defending and incisive attacking. Brescia have been particularly poor in defence, looking very nervy when having the lead and often end up giving it away. I think Parma should edge this game but I’m not suicial enough to back them to win it! Nonetheless, over 2.5 goals intrigues me here becauase Parma have a lot of firepower with Giovinco, Crespo, and Bojinov but they can’t defend for shit whereas Brescia miss important defender Dallamano, as well as two key midfielders (Hetemaj and Baiocco) so I don’t expect an assured performance from them, especially as they lose a lot of experience with those absences. For me, this should be an open game and thus over 2.5 goals appeals to me in this one.
Team news – Brescia miss Dallamano, Hetemaj, and Baiocco whereas Parma miss Dzemaili and Marques.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 27/20.
Lazio vs Sampdoria – Federico Macheda to score anytime at 9/2.
A lot of people will be tempted to back Lazio here but not me. They’ve got a big derby with AS Roma looming and looking at the players that they’re without today, it’s quite apparent which game they value more. Lazio cannot defend without Radu so the fact that they’re also missing Biava in defence means that they’re about as reliable as Parma for defending in this game! Given that Lazio don’t score many goals, keeping a solid defence is generally instrumental to them winning games but they don’t have a solid defence today, hence my concern. They’re missing important striker Rocchi, which is a massive blow, not to mention holding midfielder Matuzalem so there are some hefty losses for Lazio today that I cannot overlook; they’re not worth 4/5 with these absences.
That said, Sampdoria are still adjusting to life without Cassano so what to do here? Sampdoria’s defending is usually solid enough but Pazzini can’t score goals on his own so what to do? Sign Federico Macheda on loan – that’s what they did! I think he’ll do very well for them as he’s quick and playing in England gives him a much quicker response time than Italian football so we should see him improve as long as he controls his temper. Macheda is quick and has decent off-the-ball movement so I fancy him to cause an inept Lazio defence a lot of problems today. I don’t honestly know if he’ll start or not but 9/2 on him scoring anytime in a game that he will most likely feature in really appeals to me, especially as Lazio was the club that Manchester United signed him from – he’s a Lazio academy boy! The script usually dictates that the striker will score in that situation and with generous odds of 9/2 on show, I think it’s worth a punt today.
Team news – Lazio miss Radu, Garrido, Biava, Matuzalem, Gonzalez, and Rocchi whereas Sampdoria miss Zauri, Semioli, Padalino, Gastadello, Lucchini, and Pescina.
Verdict: Federico Macheda to score anytime at 9/2.
Genoa vs Udinese – away win with draw no bet at 6/5.
With Wigan Athletic striker Mauro Boselli having failed a fitness test ahead of this game, Genoa are again struggling in attack. Luca Toni signed for Juventus and there’s basically only Palacio left who can do anything useful in attack. They’ve got Swedish youngster Hallenius, who it’d be fascinating to see as he’s very talented but he’s not in the squad for today. Genoa just don’t concern me, which may be a tad naive of me but I just don’t see where the threat is coming from for the Genova-based outfit.
It’ll comfort poor-travelling Udinese that Genoa have only won three times at home in nine Serie A games. It’ll also comfort them that Genoa have been competing in the Coppa Italia and thus will either have a tired team for this game after their game with Internazionale or they’ll rest players for the return leg in a few days times. Either way, the advantage has to be with Udinese here when you consider how many goals that they score so they have to be taken seriously here. AC Milan didn’t take Udinese seriously during Udinese’s last away game and that game ended 4-4. Udinese don’t have a good record when playing Genoa away but I think today is the first realistic chance that they’ve had to win this game for some time. They’ve got a largely full squad and with the talented Alexis Sanchez leading the line for Udine, I really fancy a strong away display today.
I’d obviously recommend covering this selection with draw no bet but 6/5 on the away win is still a generous price with that cover taken. Therefore, my call is for Udinese to win this game with draw no bet cover at 6/5, especially as only three sides have scored more away goals than Udinese have in Serie A this season so I’d be surprised to see them lose this one.
Team news – Genoa miss Kharja and Boselli whereas Udinese miss Domizzi.
Verdict: Udinese to win with draw no bet at 6/5.
Monagas SC vs Caracas – away win at 6/4.
The Venezuelan Primera Division is the first South American competition proper to return and I always find it hard to preview games at the start of the season as there’s not an awful lot that you can say.
However, I’m going to stick my neck out on a bold away win tonight as I rather fancy this Caracas side to do well. Caracas are one of the top three sides in Venezuela and have been for years whereas Monagas SC are usually a top seven side but rarely anything more prominent. These two sides tend to play out a good game of football with plenty of goals but Caracas know that they need to win the Clausura this time around to battle with Deportivo Tachira for a Copa Libertadores place. Caracas won six out of nine away games in the Apertura, which is more than any other side, so they’re definitely capable of it. I’ve been impressed with Caracas’ transfer activity over the break too as they’ve picked up Real Cartagena striker Jimenez to compliment Cabezas in attack as well as Panamanian playmaker Barahona, not to mention emerging Venezuelan striker Pena on loan from Portimonense. Caracas are really pushing for the Clausura title and I just think that they’ll have too much for a decent Monagas SC side tonight with 6/4 being a very generous price indeed so my call is the away win.
Verdict: Caracas to win at 6/4.
Accumulator fodder:
MSV Duisburg, Augsburg, Panathinaikos, Aris Salonika, AC Milan, Porto, SL Benfica, Barcelona, Real Madrid.
Recommended bets:
AS Roma, Porto, and AC Milan at 3/1.
Both Copa Sudamericano U20 games to go over 2.5 goals at 2/1.
Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Sunderland at 2/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Asian Cup:
China vs Uzbekistan (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Qatar vs Kuwait (6) 1-0
Copa Sudamericano U20:
Argentina vs Uruguay (4) 1-2
Peru vs Chile (6) both sides to score
Australian A-League:
Newcastle Jets vs Central Coast Mariners (6) 1-1
Cypriot Division 1:
Ethnikos Achnas vs AEK Larnaca (6) 1-2
Ermis vs Doxa (3) draw no bet, over 2.5 goals
Olympiakos Nicosia vs Anorthosis Famagusta (6) over 2.5 goals
English Premier League:
Birmingham City vs Aston Villa (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Sunderland vs Newcastle United (7) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Liverpool vs Everton (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester United (5) over 2.5 goals
French Ligue 1:
Olympique de Marseille vs Girondins de Bordeaux (7) 1-0
German Bundesliga:
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hannover 96 (5) 0-1, draw no bet
Kaiserslautern vs Koln (7) 2-0
German Bundesliga 2:
Augsburg vs Ingolstadt (8) under 2.5 goals
MSV Duisburg vs Osnabruck (8)
Arminia Bielefeld vs FSV Frankfurt (6)
Greek Super League:
Larissa vs Iraklis (7) 1-0
Aris Salonika vs Panionios (8) 2-0
Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens (5) 0-1
Panathinaikos vs Kavala (8) 2-1
Xanthi vs Ergotelis (6) 1-0
Italian Serie A:
Cagliari vs Palermo (5) 1-0
Juventus vs Bari (4) 1-1
Catania vs Chievo Verona (6) over 2.5 goals
Brescia vs Parma (4) over 2.5 goals
Cesena vs AS Roma (7) 1-2
Lazio vs Sampdoria (5) 2-1
Genoa vs Udinese (5) 1-2, draw no bet
Lecce vs AC Milan (8) 0-2
Mexican Primera Division:
Morelia vs Guadalajara (6) 2-1
Pumas UNAM vs Santos Laguna (6) 1-1
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
CD Nacional de Madeira vs Rio Ave (6) 1-0
Vitoria Setubal vs Maritimo Funchal (6) 1-1
Uniao de Leiria vs Beira-Mar (5) 1-1
Porto vs Naval de Maio (9) -1.5 handicap, Hulk to score anytime
Academica de Coimbra vs SL Benfica (8) 1-2
Spanish Primera Liga:
Valencia CF vs Deportivo La Coruna (6) 2-1
Almeria vs Real Madrid (8) -1.5 handicap
Barcelona vs Malaga (9) -1.5 handicap
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Elche vs Granada (5) under 2.5 goals
Recreativo de Huelva vs Villarreal II (4)
Ponferradina vs Tenerife (4) draw no bet
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Estudiantes de Merida vs Trujillanos (5) 2-1
Atletico El Vigia vs Atletico Venezuela (6) 1-0
Yaracuyanos vs Deportivo Tachira (4) 0-1
Zulia vs Deportivo Lara (6) 1-1
Aragua vs Zamora (7) 2-1
Monagas SC vs Caracas (6) 1-2
Caroni vs Carabobo (5) under 2.5 goals
Real Esppor Club vs Mineros de Guayana (7) 1-0
Deportivo Petare vs Deportivo Anzoategui (7) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!