Chelsea vs Atletico Madrid
FreeWell, I’m not entirely sure how I’ve had the audacity to recommend so many games today given the ridiculous nature of last night’s games i.e. the lack of any home wins in the UEFA Champions League! I mean, there’s some you think to yourself “this could happen” like Dynamo Kiev to take a point at Internazionale and Unirea Urziceni to get a point at Rangers but some of those results were farcical. If any of you had offered me a massive bet that Rubin Kazan would win at Barcelona and I get the home win then I’d have taken your hand off because Rubin Kazan simply aren’t good enough to compete with Barcelona – period. However, the hosts didn’t turn up on the night, as indeed most sides last night failed to do. Incidentally, I do believe Barcelona will batter Rubin Kazan away from home!
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League game between Chelsea and Atletico Madrid. Although Chelsea’s recent domestic form away from home has been poor, they remain a potent threat and also boast a 100% record of wins at home so far this season in all competitions. Today they host an Atletico Madrid side that look capable of losing to just about anyone as they enter this game on the back of a 3-0 thrashing at relegation-threatened Osasuna. They’ve won just one game this season in all competitions and it’s no secret that they have mass problems on and off the field. It takes more than a couple of very talented individuals to make a difference when a side isn’t playing well and it seems Atletico Madrid are simply lacking in that leadership. Worryingly for Atletico Madrid, they’ve averaged two goals conceded per game in their last five encounters. That is not the kind of record you want to take to an impressive Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. Although the hosts are missing star striker Didier Drogba through suspension, the hosts are far more organised and are better placed to comfortably win this game. The visitors are leaky in defence and goal-shy currently. Obviously this bet has an element of risk because we all know that Atletico Madrid certainly have the ability to turn it on – the idea is that they’ll fail to do that tonight as they have done for many nights now. However, taking Chelsea with a -1.75 handicap at 10/11 looks something of a bargain to me because Chelsea must have some serious issues to not comfortably overcome Atletico Madrid at this moment in time.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Chelsea vs Atletico Madrid – home win with -1.75 handicap at 10/11 – see introduction for full details.
CSKA Moscow vs Manchester United – home win with draw no bet at 11/8. As an avid Manchester United fan, this is a very hard call for me to make but I do try to remain neutral when advising on tips. Manchester United boss Sir Alex Ferguson has been dropping hints this week about how the game isn’t quite as important (subtly, of course) as the weekend game and how if Manchester United do well in back-to-back games against CSKA Moscow (note: not this game) then they stand a good chance of qualification. It’s more than apparent after Manchester United’s unconvincing but efficient start to their UEFA Champions League campaign that this game is dubious and also simply not required. Manchester United will have all eyes on the big derby with a massively out-of-form Liverpool at Anfield this coming weekend. Aside from that, Manchester United are missing a host of players like Wayne Rooney, Darren Fletcher, Patrice Evra, Ryan Giggs, and Ji-Sung Park, with doubts over the availability of Dimitar Berbatov and Nemanja Vidic. Effectively, a massive coincidence has arisen whereby the majority of Manchester United’s good players have been “injured” for this game but will miraculously be fit for weekend, which coincidentally overrules UEFA’s ruling on not fielding understrength squads in the UEFA Champions League. Make no mistake – Manchester United are coming here for the draw. However, Juande Ramos has got CSKA Moscow scoring goals if nothing else so they’re beginning to look their old potent selves again with an average of two goals scored per game in their last five encounters. I consider this particularly impressive considering their lack of proven goalscoring talent as youngster Tomas Necid is still a prospect, Maazou isn’t proven yet, Ricardo Jesus hasn’t settled yet, and Guilherme is carrying the side although he’s still very much a future prospect himself, as well as being ruled out of this game through injury anyway. What Juande Ramos would give to have Vagner Love resolve his personal issues and return from his loan spell at Palmeiras to return to Russia and reclaim his status as one of the deadliest strikers in Europe at the moment. However, this facility isn’t available to them so they simply have to use what they’ve got. However, the likes of Maazou and Necid could have some joy in the air against Manchester United if Nemanja Vidic is missing. I also have nightmare visions of lightning-fast Milos Krasic tearing John O’Shea apart in this game. Even more impressively, the Russians aren’t conceding many goals either. In fact, they’ve conceded just two goals in their last five games in all competitions. Effectively, what we have here are two sides that are likely to cancel each other out but the hosts have more attacking potential because the visitors are missing someone who will “make things happen”, basically, which is a massive problem for Manchester United and has been ever since Cristiano Ronaldo moved on. For the above reasons and the additional fact that CSKA Moscow need to win this game, I think the home win with draw no bet odds of 11/8 could hold some value tonight although I’ve no qualms in saying I hope I’m wrong!
Juventus vs Maccabi Haifa – under 2.5 goals at 6/5. Maccabi Haifa proved away to Girondins de Bordeaux in their last UEFA Champions League game that they’re capable of making life hard for their opponents by defending astutely and efficiently. The French side managed to score just once against the Israelis and I expect something similar today for what can be loosely described as a misfiring Juventus. Italian football is still going backwards when in comparison to the rest of Europe and these are the type of games where it tends to show. I expect Juventus to control this game with their slow, steady pace and bore Maccabi Haifa into conceding one or two goals at most. What would upset this call is if the visitors scored first but I’m banking on that not happening as I don’t feel they have the firepower to do it. Therefore, taking under 2.5 goals at 6/5 looks something of a bargain here.
Real Madrid vs AC Milan – over 3.5 goals at 11/8. This bet speaks for itself, surely? AC Milan are leaking goals for fun as they despairingly struggle against the imminent ageing of their side and the ever-decreasing effectiveness of the Italian football sides. Despite their 2-1 win at Olympique de Marseille in the opening UEFA Champions League round, the win was fortuitous as the French side dominated proceedings. What it does show, however, is that Filippo Inzaghi still has one of the most lethal finishes in Europe and a crazy Real Madrid defence are unlikely to keep him out tonight, particularly as the influential Metzelder is missing through injury. I’m a little concerned on this call because Cristiano Ronaldo isn’t playing and he’s frankly the one that carries this Real Madrid side. That said, they’re still a capable side with very good attacking players and have only played one competitive game this season where they’ve scored less than two goals in a game, which was their 2-1 defeat at Sevilla CF. However, an ageing AC Milan shouldn’t be able to keep out the rapid Spanish attack, particularly without midfield general Rino Gattuso in midfield to help break up the play. To put it bluntly – both sides are capable of scoring lots of goals and neither side can defend for shit currently. Therefore, taking over 3.5 goals at 11/8 could prove good value today.
FC Zurich vs Olympique de Marseille – draw at 23/10. I very, very rarely back draws but this one has draw written all over it. Atypically, I’d lean towards the away win if Olympique de Marseille were in form but frankly, one win in four games (including three defeats) says that they’re struggling. Both of these sides are extremely potent, particularly Olympique de Marseille when the impressive Niang plays, which he will tonight. FC Zurich have scored in both games they’ve played in so far, notching up two goals at home to Real Madrid and one goal in their impressive away win at AC Milan. I can’t see either side having the capabiliy to outwit or outplay the other tonight and in a strange sort of way, I think both sides would take the draw here. Therefore, the draw at 23/10 could bear significant value today.
Real Cartagena vs Once Caldas Manizales – home win at 17/20. Once Caldas Manizales are a strange side. Capable of competing with the best at home, the visitors today know that they can win the game. However, something bizarre then occurs in their minds that then means that they lose every away game, which is exactly what they’ve done so far this season. They’ve played six away games, lost six, and conceded over three goals per game on average. For a capable side, this is frankly a shocking record but one that we will take advantage of where possible – cue today’s game. Real Cartagena aren’t a better side than Once Caldas Manizales in my opinion but they’re a relatively competent side at home as they’ve only lost at home twice this season. They’ve unbeaten in their last three games, drawing twice and winning once, which should provide the momentum they need to overcome what is undisputedly the worst away side in Colombia currently. Therefore, the home win at 17/20 looks to contain significant value today.
KPV Kokkola vs JJK Jyvaskyla – home win at 13/8. This is quite the dubious call but one I do like the look of. As the end of the Ykkonen came about, KPV Kokkola said basically “it’s now or never”, seized the bull by the horns and thus won their last five consecutive games to steal second place and achieve a play-off clash with Veikkausliiga outfit JJK Jyvaskyla. I’ve never personally viewed this as a fair way to decide promotion. The way I see it, if you’re bad enough to finish second bottom in the league then you’re bad enough to earn automatic relegation, not a lifeline against the side that came second in the division below. However, I don’t make the rules, unfortunately, so here we are! Whichever way you look at it, KPV Kokkola enter this game with tremendous momentum and they possess some good ability too, enough to match (if not better) JJK Jvyaskyla today. The visitors are only in this position as they managed to salvage a late draw at home to Tampere United on the final day of the Veikkausliiga season, thus keeping them above RoPS Rovaniemi on goal difference. It’s worth nothing that JJK Jyvaskyla haven’t won a Veikkausliiga game in their last ten attempts, losing eight times and drawing just twice. In fact, JJK Jyvaskyla ended their Veikkausliiga season with just one away win from thirteen away games, losing ten times and drawing just twice. The visitors have struggled to adapt to the Veikkausliiga and may yet end up joining RoPS Rovaniemi in their relegation to the Ykkonen as they face a competent KPV Kokkola today. Due to the above information, the home win at 13/8 looks inviting as the hosts have more momentum and arguably more motivation too.
As ever, any questions/explanations required, feel free to email me at thefootytipster@gmail.com. For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Champions League:
CSKA Moscow vs Manchester United (4) 1-0
Girondins de Bordeaux vs Bayern Munich (7) 1-1
Juventus vs Maccabi Haifa (9) under 2.5 goals
VFL Wolfsburg vs Besiktas JK (8) over 3.5 goals
Real Madrid vs AC Milan (8) over 3.5 goals
FC Zurich vs Olympique de Marseille (6) 2-2
Porto vs APOEL Nicosia (9) -2.75 handicap
Chelsea vs Atletico Madrid (9) -1.75 handicap
Asian Champions League:
Pohang Steelers vs Umm Salal (7) 2-0
Al Ittihad vs Nagoya Grampus (6) 1-0
Copa Nissan Sudamericana:
River Plate Montevideo vs San Lorenzo de Almagro (6) 0-0
Cerro Porteno vs Botafogo (5) 1-0
Brazilian Serie A:
Santo Andre vs Palmeiras (4) 1-1
Chinese Super League:
Changsha Ginde vs Chongqing Lifan (6) 1-1
Colombian Futbol Profesional:
La Equidad Bogota vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (8) 1-1
Envigado vs Millonarios Bogota (7) 0-0
Atletico Huila vs America de Cali (7) 2-1
Deportivo Pereira vs Deportes Quindio (8) 1-0
Independiente Medellin vs Deportes Tolima (8) 2-0
Independiente Santa Fe Bogota vs Cucuta Deportivo (7) 1-0
Boyaca Chico vs Atletico Nacional de Medellin (5) 0-1
Real Cartagena vs Once Caldas Manizales (6) 1-0
Deportivo Cali vs Deportivo Pasto (7) 1-1
Finnish Veikkausliiga/Ykkonen Play-Offs:
KPV Kokkola vs JJK Jyvaskyla (6)
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Rampla Juniors vs Fenix (3) draw no bet
Racing Club Montevideo vs Montevideo Wanderers (6) 1-1
Club Nacional de Montevideo vs Atenas (8) -1.75 handicap
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Deportivo Lara vs Trujillanos (6) 2-1
Deportivo Tachira vs Deportivo Anzoategui (8) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!