Chelsea vs SSC Napoli
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Today’s secondary featured game is the UEFA Champions League game between Chelsea and Napoli in England.
Ordinarily, I’d give Chelsea the nod at home against Napoli. I don’t really rate Italian sides away from home in Europe and Napoli did the job in the first leg so they just have to keep Chelsea at bay here.
However, things have changed since then with Portuguese boss Villas-Boas exiting the club. It’s far from the first time that Chelsea have sacked a manager far too early – he was actually their eighth manager in nine years, worryingly enough! Chelsea have since appointed former player Roberto di Matteo as boss, presumably whilst Abramovich plays in his loft with his train set and doesn’t give his football team a second thought.
So how does that change things? Well, this is only my opinion but I think that this game becomes more about di Matteo’s future than it does about Chelsea’s progression. I hate to be horribly cynical but Chelsea aren’t going to win this tournament and I think they know it, too. For me, it’s far more important that they actually reach the UEFA Champions League next season so their league games must surely take priority.
If that is the case – note the word “if”! – then I expect Chelsea to be a lot more cool, composed, and frankly slow. I watched a lot of Chelsea’s game with Stoke at weekend and their whole focus was to dominate possession and prevent their opponent from scoring. Albeit via a red card for Ricardo Fuller following a shocking “tackle”, Chelsea did manage to do the above rather well. However, they failed to break through Stoke anywhere near enough and it took some Drogba magic to win the game 1-0 for them, although hats off to Stoke ‘keeper Begovic for making a few wonderful saves in the game.
So what are we to draw as a conclusion from the above? Well, again, I expect di Matteo to do what it takes to secure his long-term future here. Yes, he could help them reach the next round of the competition and when they crash out and find out that they’ve potentially blown their chances of a top four finish then he won’t be the most popular man at Stamford Bridge. An exit from this competition isn’t ideal tonight and nobody wants to go out of a competition but the way I would phrase it is that I view Chelsea exiting this competition tonight as “convenient” and “beneficial”, if that makes sense.
Now, if Chelsea properly attack Napoli then I suspect this game will go over 2.5 goals. Napoli simply cannot defend, especially in big games, and they will almost certainly concede in this game if it’s an open one. However, they don’t have to do anything as they already lead 3-1 from the first leg. They can sit back and wait for their beloved counter-attacks, something which they’re frighteningly good at with Hamsik, Lavezzi, and Cavani all dynamite in the final third. An open game should see a 2-1 or possibly a 2-2 scoreline here, in my view.
I still think we’ll see a closed game, though. Di Matteo does not want to lose this game. He must secure momentum to pick Chelsea’s battered morale up and push for a Champions League place next season. I think he’ll play the waiting game for this encounter and the inevitable moment where Drogba’s strength, movement, and finesse is too much for Napoli to handle (which should be inevitable) and settle for a 1-0 or 2-0 win. After all, it doesn’t do his reputation any harm, does it? A 2-0 would see Chelsea go through and Napoli aren’t the hardest side to score against; they’re just a nightmare to keep out!
So, yeah – I really quite fancy under 3 goals here. I don’t expect Chelsea to give the ball away much and I don’t see the reasoning behind Napoli attacking from the start so I expect a cautious start with perhaps a more active second-half. Chelsea aren’t as good in the final third right now as they should be and Napoli don’t need to be. Although I’d not touch the “which side to qualify?” side of things, I do like under 3 goals here, probably more than I should!
Verdict: Under 3 goals at 4/5.
Wednesday’s Picks
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA Champions League:
Chelsea vs SSC Napoli (5) 1-0
Real Madrid vs CSKA Moscow (8) -1.5 handicap
Copa Libertadores:
Arsenal de Sarandi vs Boca Juniors (6) 0-0
Fluminense vs Zamora (7) 2-1
Cruz Azul vs Corinthians (5) 0-0
Libertad Asuncion vs Vasco da Gama (7) 1-0
Austrian Bundesliga:
SV Kapfenberg vs Wiener Neustadt (5) 1-0
Finnish Liiga Cup:
Haka Valkeakoski vs TPS Turku (6) 1-1
FC Lahti vs MyPa Anjalankoski (5) 2-2
KuPS Kuopio vs Jaro Pietarsaari (7) 2-1
Greek Super League:
Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina (6) 1-0
Doxa Dramas vs Atromitos (5) 1-2
Macedonian First League:
Rabotnicki Skopje vs Renova Dzepciste (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
11 Oktomvri vs Ohrid (6) 2-1
Horizont Turnovo vs Sileks Kratovo (4) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Metalurg Skopje vs Bregalnica Stip (8) 1-0
Serbian Super Liga:
Hajduk Kula vs Jagodina (5) 2-1
OFK Belgrade vs Partizan Belgrade (7) 0-2
Sevojno vs Rad Belgrade (6) 2-1
Novi Pazar vs Vojvodina Novi Sad (4) 1-1
Metalac GM vs Spartak Subotica (6) 0-0
Radnicki 1923 vs Javor Ivanjica (7) 1-0
Borac Cacak vs BSK Borca (6) 1-0
Red Star Belgrade vs Smederevo (8) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!