Club Nacional de Montevideo vs Estudiantes De La Plata
FreeThe Copa Libertadores is gradually reaching its climax! This is unfortunate because I (like many) enjoy ridiculously high numbers of red cards the good football on show. Today’s semi-final game is the second leg which sees Uruguayan giants Club Nacional de Montevideo entertain an Argentinian that have somehow fought their way to this position – Estudiantes De La Plata. The Argentinians have been far from convincing in this tournament, particularly on the road. In fact, from the six away games they’ve scored in the tournament, they’ve only managed to score two goals in that time, and that includes games against lower class opposition like Bolivia’s Universitario de Sucre. They’ve not been playing good football, in my opinion, yet somehow they’ve managed to stumble their way here. Having won the first leg 1-0 already, the Argentinians won’t have come here to do anything other than put their team bus in front of the goal. Unfortunately, they’ve left this game in the balance at one of the most fearsome away games you can play in the Copa Libertadores at the moment. The hosts haven’t lost here in fifteen home games in the Copa Libertadores and that does look distinctly ominous for a poor away side like Estudiantes De La Plata. Club Nacional de Montevideo simply have to win this game, regardless of what happens. The visitors can lose and still progress, however, so I am getting a strong sense of a home win here. Unfortunately for the Uruguayans, I’ve got a 2-1 scoreline in my head (with plenty of cards, naturally!) and with odds of 6/5 on a home win, you can’t help but take a bite of this one! For the record though, I do hope the hosts progress because they’ve certainly earned it far more in this tournament than the visitors in my opinion.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
Club Nacional de Montevideo vs Estudiantes De La Plata – home win at 6/5 – see introduction for further details
Tre Fiori vs Sant Julia – away win at 11/8. I gotta tell you here that despite the lack of quality on show, this will be an extremely interesting fixture because it’s two of the minnows of Europe that are competing here. Even the bookies are struggling to seperate these two! Just in case you are struggling to seperate these two sides – Tre Fiori are from San Marino and Sant Julia are from Andorra. There really isn’t an awful lot to choose between these two sides but there is one fundamental difference that I think really does make a difference – player nationality. Tre Fiori only have San Marinese players. They have no cultural variety or difference in style – it’s all the same. Sant Julia are full of a wide variety of nationalities, the majority of which are flambuoyant players from hispanic countries like Argentina and Spain. Sant Julia compete in European football more often than their opponents and can score goals. For those reasons, I’m liking the away win here at 11/8 probably a bit more than I should given that both sides are pretty poor!
VPS Vaasa vs HJK Helsinki – away win at 10/11. HJK Helsinki have beaten VPS Vaasa the last three times they’ve met in all competitions. In fact, VPS Vaasa haven’t even scored against HJK Helsinki in the Veikkausliiga since 2007. However, VPS Vaasa have been on a tremendous run lately, boasting five wins from their last five games, which is currently the best form in the league. I think that’s why the bookies are giving good odds of 10/11 on an away win here. They’ve nailed some impressive scalps too and have certainly tightened up defensively having only leaked two goals in their last five games, and both of those were last match. However, that does sway me further towards the away win, really – if a side can concede two goals at home to lowly JJK Jyvaskyla then you’ve got some issues somewhere! HJK Helsinki aren’t big goalscorers or conceders on the road so this should be an interesting game to view the outcome of, even if it is a boring spectacle. I like the away win and I like under 2.5 goals or even under 1.5 goals at whatever odds you can take them at.
RoPS Rovaniemi vs JJK Jyvaskyla – both sides to score. Both of these relegation battling sides have played pretty well lately, even if results haven’t shown it. Both have battled hard and scored goals against good sides. This should be a gritty game with a few cards flying around. I can see a home win on the day but that’s not my betting focus. My focus on this game is both sides to score. Both sides have managed to find the net for the last three games in a row, all of which were better sides than these two. I predict that neither side will keep the other out, particularly as neither has kept a clean sheet in their last four games either! This should be a goal fest – take both sides to score or over 2.5 goals here, maybe even over 3.5 goals.
Kawasaki Frontale vs Gamba Osaka – home win at 6/5. These odds look a real bargain here. Not only are Kawasaki Frontale flying at the moment with five league wins in a row, but they also have the mental edge over Gamba Osaka after winning away to them 3-2 in the first leg of their Asian Champions League Knockout Stage clash. The hosts also boast an impressive home record in the J-League so far – five home wins and a draw from six home games. However, do approach this bet with caution as Gamba Osaka are still one of the best sides in the country. Their form is poor, or was until they managed to claim three points last match, their first win in three games. One final point, however – Kawasaki Frontale have won this fixture the last three seasons in a row. The decision is yours, but 6/5 looks awfully tempting…
Nagoya Grampus vs Kashima Antlers – away win at evens. I’m not a big advocate of betting on Eastern Asian games, particularly not away wins, but this one has to be in the bag, surely? Kashima Antlers are top of the table which is largely due to the fact that they’ve won their last seven league games in a row and have won five away games from seven this season. Whereas Nagoya Grampus aren’t anywhere near as bad a side as the table indicates, their form is poor and they’ve now succumbed to three defeats in a row. Their heads will have dropped and will no doubt have fresh in their memory the 4-0 hammering they took here at home to Kashima Antlers last season and wonder what’s in store for them. Evens is beginning to look pretty damn good, isn’t it?
As ever, any questions/explanations required, feel free to email me at thefootytipster@gmail.com. For the complete picks listing, see below!
Copa Libertadores:
Club Nacional de Montevideo vs Estudiantes De La Plata (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
UEFA European Champions League:
Tre Fiori vs Sant Julia (7) 1-2
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Manta vs Liga de Quito (7) under 2.5 goals
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
VPS Vaasa vs HJK Helsinki (7) 0-1
RoPS Rovaniemi vs JJK Jyvaskyla (7) 3-2
Tampere United vs Inter Turku (6) under 2.5 goals
Icelandic Landsbankadeild Karla:
Fylkir Reykjavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar (8) 3-1
Japanese J-League:
Kawasaki Frontale vs Gamba Osaka (7) 2-1
Nagoya Grampus vs Kashima Antlers (8) 1-2
Latvian Virsliga:
Blazma Rezekne vs Skonto Riga (8) 1-2
Olimps Riga vs Liepajas Metalurgs (8) 0-2
Norwegian Tippeligaen:
Lillestrom vs Start Kristiansand (6) 2-2
Singaporean S-League:
DPMM FC vs Balestier Khalsa (10) -1.75 handicap
Enjoy your free betting tips!