Club Nacional de Montevideo vs Palmeiras
FreeLast night boasted one of the most shocking things I have ever seen; Flora Tallinn and Levadia Tallinn both failing to win! Honestly, for those two of you that know anything about the Estonian Meistriliiga, you’ll realise this happens about as often as alien invasions. I confess to being disappointed by these results and apologise that we were let down by these sides last night, something which almost never occurs.
However, today we witness some interesting (and hopefully more profitable) games in various competitions for various reasons but the most interesting one for me is in South America’s Copa Libertadores between Uruguayan giants Club Nacional de Montevideo and Brazilian hotshots Palmeiras. Both sides have had impressive campaigns and I frankly can’t wait to see this encounter.
Onto the betting side of things, however; a home win looks favourable. 11/8 is very good odds for a side who haven’t lost at home in the Copa Libertadores for something like 14 games now. The Uruguayans have now proven they have an added dimension to their game in that they’re tough to beat away from home also, as Palmeiras discovered some weeks ago in the first leg, which ended 1-1. Furthering what I have said, Palmeiras really have to take the game to Club Nacional de Montevideo to have a chance of progression and I can’t see them doing it over 90 minutes despite their impressive campaign. I could accept a draw as an outcome, but I really do fancy the home win here. The trouble is that both sides are very capable of being reduced to 10 men or less which obviously can dramatically affect the outcome of the game. However, there’s value in this game somewhere and I’ll be damned if I let it slide by unnoticed!
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
The bets I like the look of today are listed below:
Club Nacional de Montevideo vs Palmeiras – home win at 11/8 – see introduction for full details.
South Africa vs New Zealand – New Zealand to win with draw no bet at 13/2. If I’m honest, I absolutely cannot believe such odds are floating around. People are reading way too much into the game between Spain and New Zealand in my opinion. In the first half, Spain annihlated New Zealand, no question, but in the second half it was a much more even affair. New Zealand have convinced me that they aren’t that bad a side and what South Africa managed to prove in their opening game with Iraq is that they’re slightly worse than I anticipated. Admittedly, South Africa will be spurred on by the home crowd but I can’t see them winning the game. There’s potentially some awesome value here!
Spain vs Iraq – Spain to win with -3 goal handicap at 7/5. Let’s not beat around the bush; Spain are currently the best International side in the world, no question. They can demolish the most sturdy of defences at any given moment and I’ll be astounded if they don’t win this tournament. However, despite that, don’t underestimate Iraq. Whereas I’ll be amazed if they get anything from this game, they’re a better side than New Zealand and have played much better sides to be here. I don’t think they’ll lose quite as heavily; I’ve got 4-0 and 3-0 in my head as scorelines, so taking Spain at -3 at odds of 7/5 should be fruitful. However, keep punts low as 3-0 definitely isn’t out of the question.
Australia vs Japan – home win at 11/10. There’s not much between these two sides at the best of times but both have qualified already for the World Cup and ultimately this game is redundant. That basically means keep punts low. However, despite both sides stating they’ll be resting some big names, it seems Australia are under pressure to put on a show in front of what is rumoured to be a sellout crowd. Both sides have impressed me a lot lately but I just think the Aussies will edge this by a goal.
Bahrain vs Uzbekistan – under 1.5 goals at 7/4. The game is redundant, neither side likes to score goals, and there hasn’t been a game here in the World Cup Qualifiers with over 1 goal in it since September 2008. To say this game will be boring is an understatement. That said, there’s always money to be made so I’d recommend taking under 1.5 goals at 7/4 or under 2.5 goals if you wish to approach with caution. Anything that occurs that leads the game over 2.5 goals will no doubt cause a rip in space time continuum.
Saudi Arabia vs North Korea – home win -1 goal handicap at 11/5. Saudi Arabia must win this game to qualify for the World Cup and let’s face it – they always seem to be there! Failure to win this game will see North Korea enter their first World Cup for many years and they’ll be desperate not to lose here. However, what convinces me with the handicap is that I can see the hosts scoring and then the visitors have to take the game to them. North Korea aren’t that good, they’re just grafters. I can see them being hit on the counter-attack by a shrewd Saudi Arabia and the scoreline being 2-0.
Gremio vs Caracas – home win with -1 goal handicap at 5/6. The hosts have scored two goals or more in their last three home games in the Copa Libertadores and I can’t see plucky Caracas ending that particular run. Gremio are somewhat masterful at home, especially when it comes to keeping clean sheets. There’s no doubt they’re better than Caracas and I fully expect them to show that tonight.
HB Torshavn vs NSI Runavik – home win & over 2.5 goals. The home side has won each encounter between these two sides the last eight times the game has been played at either ground. Neither of these sides manage to win when playing away against each other, so a home win is definitely on the cards. Out of those eight games, five have been over 2.5 goals, three of which were the most recent encounters between these two sides. Regrettably, I can’t find any odds for these selections but if you can find them, I’d recommend taking them!
IFK Mariehamn vs Haka Valkeakoski – 1-1 draw at 5/1 or under 2.5 goals. This game is going to be very interesting for me because I’m sad to see which side continues their splendid run. Strong IFK Mariehamn haven’t lost a hame at home in the Veikkausliiga this campaign and high-flying Haka Valkeakoski haven’t lost an away game in the Veikkausliiga this season. To be honest, I think this game will end with both sides keeping their respective records entact as I thoroughly expect this game to end in a draw. The hosts don’t score or concede many goals and the visitors have only conceded one goal on the road this season. Both sides have had fantastic starts to their campaigns but if truth be told, both are punching above their weight and I think both would probably take the draw here.
VPS Vaasa vs KuPS Kuopio – home win at 4/6. For the life of me I can’t work out why it’s only 4/6 for a home win here given that the home side are considerably better than the away side, they enter the game on the back of three straight victories and entertain a side that have lost 8 games from 10 this season. In fact, Ykkonen-bound KuPS Kuopio haven’t even scored a goal in 5 games now. It may even be worth taking VPS Vaasa on the handicap, but I’ll leave that up to yourselves.
JJK Jyvaskyla vs FC Lahti – home win at double chance, odds 4/5. The hosts play on a quagmire of a pitch that sides find it hard to strut their stuff on. They’ve scored in three of their five home games this season and have only lost two of them, which isn’t that bad considering their league position. They’re not in good form but neither are FC Lahti, who managed to draw yet again last match. The visitors now haven’t won a game in their last three and haven’t won an away game in the Veikkausliiga this season. Whereas there’s no doubt in my mind that they’re capable of winning, I can’t see it occurring today as a resilient JJK Jyvaskyla bravely fight against what seems like already inevitable relegation. Interestingly, however, the hosts haven’t won a home game this season so something may have to give way here. The most likely outcome is a draw and despite FC Lahti being the better side, I’d actually confess to being a bit surprised if they win this encounter.
If those bets aren’t enough for you, consider a Colombian treble including Deportes Tolima, Once Caldas Manizales and Atletico Junior Barranquilla. Approach with some caution as these games are crucial in deciding which side progresses to the final (which decides the league winner) but they should come in and missing odds of 6/1 would be criminal!
You may also wish to consider a treble in the Finnish Ykkonen, which includes Klubi 04 Helsinki, Hameenlinna and PS Kemi Kings at approximately 5/1. Klubi 04 Helsinki are such a bargain at 4/6 because they’re infinitely better than Atlantis FC Helsinki, who can barely manage a goal, let alone a win. I thoroughly expect PS Kemi Kings to destroy TP 47 Tornio, much like everyone else this season, so a handicap is worthy of consideration here. Hameenlinna is distinctly more dubious than the others but I expect their win last match to carry them through to victory here.
As ever, any queries/explanations required, feel free to email me at thefootytipster@gmail.com. For the complete picks listing, see below!
Confederations Cup:
Spain vs Iraq (9) 4-0
South Africa vs New Zealand (5) 1-1
World Cup Qualifiers – Asian section:
Australia vs Japan (8) 2-1
South Korea vs Iran (5) 1-1
Bahrain vs Uzbekistan (7) 0-0
Saudi Arabia vs North Korea (8) 2-0
Copa Libertadores:
Club Nacional de Montevideo vs Palmeiras (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Gremio vs Caracas (8) -1.5 handicap
Colombian Futbol Profesional:
Once Caldas Manizales vs La Equidad Bogota (8) 2-1
Deportes Tolima vs Boyaca Chico (7) under 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs Envigado (8) 2-1
Cucuta Deportivo vs Deportivo Cali (6) 1-1
Faroese Meistaradeildin:
HB Torshavn vs NSI Runavik (8) over 2.5 goals
IF Fuglafjordur vs AB Argir (6)
KI Klaksvik vs B36 Torshavn (7)
07 Vestur Sorvagur vs Vikingur Gotu (9) -1.75 handicap
B68 Toftir vs EB/Streymur (7)
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Tampere United vs RoPS Rovaniemi (8) 2-0
VPS Vaasa vs KuPS Kuopio (9) 2-0
IFK Mariehamn vs Haka Valkeakoski (6) 1-1
JJK Jyvaskyla vs FC Lahti (4) 1-1
Finnish Ykkonen:
Atlantis FC Helsinki vs Klubi 04 Helsinki (8)
FC Hameenlinna vs TPV Tampere (8)
PS Kemi Kings vs TP 47 Tornio (9)
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Kruoja Pakruojis vs Suduva Marijampole (9) 0-2
Vetra Vilnius vs FK Siauliai (7) 2-0
LKKA Teledema Kaunas vs Banga Gargzdai (6) 1-0
Ekranas Panevezys vs Tauras Taurage (8) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!