Costa Rica vs Mexico
FreeI’m seeing a lot of people favouring Mexico to win on their trip to Costa Rica but I just don’t see why, guys! In fact, I think you might just see a home win as opposed to the away win. Why? Well, Costa Rica have now won their last seven home qualifying games in a row, even beating the mighty USA here. Incidentally, out of those seven games, USA are the only away side to even score here, and that was in a 3-1 defeat. Costa Rica are a very potent side, particularly at home. Anyone who follows football on a widespread scale will be able to tell you that Central American sides i.e. Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador etc. are really making waves in International football and starting to compete well. Add this information to the fact that Mexico have lost five of their last six away games in qualifiers, which have included defeats to El Salvador and Honduras, sides I consider on a par with Costa Rica. The visitors have endured a somewhat difficult past two years under the reign of different managers and suffering under the constant pressure surrounding the national team. I find this interesting because I don’t particularly rate Mexico above their Central American counterparts – I just think there’s more money in their domestic league and have had a couple of big name players over the years. Consider the number of Central Americans that are now playing in the Premier League, for instance. How many Mexicans are there? Just one – Carlos Vela of Arsenal, and he’s not often in the starting line-up. How many Hondurans are there? Well, there’s Wilson Palacios of Tottenham Hotspur, an absolutely key figure in the centre of midfield. There’s Hendry Thomas, a new signing for Wigan Athletic. There’s Maynor Figueora, a regular starter at full-back for Wigan Athletic. Already the Mexicans are outnumbered 3 to 1, and both of these countries are countries that export players rather than import them on a general scale. What I’m basically saying is that the tide is turning somewhat and it’s not a good day to be on the Mexican ship, basically. I think Mexico might just get taught a lesson today by a resilient and talented Costa Rica outfit. A home win at 6/4 looks a good bet, particularly as Mexico find it hard to keep eleven men on the field in most games!
Saturday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Costa Rica vs Mexico – home win at 6/4 – see introduction for full details.
Denmark vs Portugal – home win with draw no bet odds of 5/4. It’s a risky call, but I do like it. After a shock 3-2 win in Portugal, Denmark finally exited their poor form and became a bit of a force again. Don’t get me wrong, they’re nowhere near the Laudrups and Schmeichel era, but they’re getting somewhere. After all, how far could a side get that has a really shit Nicklas Bendtner carrying the hopes of the nation?! That said, Denmark are a well-organised outfit and will cause problems where possible. Portugal absolutely have to win this game and have looked anything but convincing in their whole campaign. They find sides like Denmark hard to break down so I suspect they could well be caught on the counter-attack more often than not. However, this game will be interesting for another reason. I’ve long considered Portugal’s massive problem is that they do not have a good and natural striker in their squad. However, that’s all changed recently with Sporting Clube de Lisboa striker Liedson having declared he’s now happy to give his allegiance to Portugal instead of Brazil after being constantly overlooked. Liedson could well be the solution to Portugal’s problems and is included in the squad so it’ll be interesting to see how that happens. Despite expecting a close game, I think Denmark can make the most of a tie with a wayward Portugal and “bring home the money”, so to speak. A home win with draw no bet odds of 5/4 looks inviting although caution is emphasised here.
Hungary vs Sweden – home win at 2/1. This looks a fascinating encounter to me because I liken it to Debreceni VSC vs Kalmar in the UEFA Champions League Qualifier that was played in Hungary earlier this year. A bit foolish, perhaps, but I think you can often find out a lot about a country’s general level of ability by the ability of their better club sides. Debreceni VSC beat Kalmar convincingly in this game, as I correctly predicted. Today, I’m expecting a similar show. Why? Well, Hungarian football used to be some of the best in the world, once upon a time, back in the days of the legendary Ferenc Puskas. Those days sadly died and Hungary virtually disappeared from footballing existence for a lengthy period of time. However, they’re beginning to make a comeback, which has gone unnoticed by a large number of people. The club sides in Hungary are getting better and the national side is now a hard opponent, particularly when at home. They’ve beaten some big names here and despite losing a rivalry match at home to Romania last time out, they’re still well aware that a win here would put them in a very good position to try and reach the World Cup, particularly if Portugal fail to win at Denmark. If I recall correctly, I think it was in the 80’s when Hungary last reached the group stages of the World Cup and it’s something that will grate on this massive footballing nation. Make no mistake here – they’ll be more than motivated for this game. Sweden have long been an odd International side, capable of beating the best and losing to the worst. These last few years, however, they seem to have stagnated somewhat. Goalscoring has become a virtual memory for them as their U21 side tends to steal the limelight from them these days with some impressive performances. Sweden are still a capable side but if you don’t score goals then you don’t win games. Zlatan Ibrahimovic is supposedly a doubt for this game but I suspect he’ll play as Sweden simply have to win this game. These two sides will go at each other today but I really fancy Hungary to show their newfound belief and ability by beating a disjointed Sweden. Frankly, 2/1 on a home win could be an absolute bargain here although you may want to look at draw no bet if you consider these two sides are not vastly different in terms of quality.
Slovakia vs Czech Republic – home win at 17/10. Czech Republic just don’t look the same without Karel Bruckner guiding the team, do they? There’s only so many times Jan Koller’s towering height and finesse will save the country – he’s 36 years old now! They need to find a new hero! Tomas Rosicky is a great player but he’s always injured. He’s in the squad today but after something like two years of absence from competitive football, do you really expect him to have the same impact? Czech Republic are beginning to look rather old and somewhat toothless in attack. Petr Cech is still one of the best goalkeepers in the world, which helps them, but they’re certainly not the force they were. By contrast, Slovakia are in the ascension by quite a considerable amount. Their midfield and attack is now verging on deadly in my eyes, particularly with the outstanding Marek Hamsik pulling the strings. Their defence is a little weak and it has been exposed before now but I expect attack to be the name of the game in this rivalry match thus leaving Slovakia as favourites in my book, currently. The hosts are in a superb position to achieve qualification with five wins from six games and have a game in hand on the chasing pack. Worryingly for an unconvincing Czech Republic, they have to attack Slovakia and obtain three points or face the very real threat of not reaching the World Cup group stage. I can see this playing right into the hands of Slovakia and the home side taking advantage of it. I expect a lot of goals as there traditionally is between these two sides but ultimately a home win looks the best value at 17/10, odds I simply cannot fathom when you weigh up the above information! Obviously, do approach with caution because this is a rivalry match!
Austria vs Faroe Islands – under 2.5 goals at 5/4. I’ve played it before and I’ll play it again – Faroe Islands to concede very few goals! Ok, that’s not the exact bet but that is the fundamental of it. Despite their lack of goalscoring ability, Faroe Islands simply aren’t pushovers anymore. Sides are only winning 2-0 or 1-0 against the Scandinavian minnows, both home and away. Austria haven’t ever been a particularly prolific nation in my eyes and I don’t expect them to start now. Frankly, a scoreline of 1-0 or 2-0 is something I think both sides would be pretty happy with and I think it’s pretty damn likely too. Under 2.5 goals at 5/4 looks a very intriguing bet indeed!
Cyprus vs Republic of Ireland – home win at draw no bet odds of 2/1. Why on earth are Republic of Ireland favourites to win this game? They were annihlated 5-2 the last time they came here to a Cyprus side that have established themselves well over the past couple of years. Cyprus is no longer a walk in the park for big sides – far from it. In fact, Cyprus have looked better than the Republic of Ireland have for some time now, in my opinion. On top of that, the visitors have been playing some poor football under Trappattoni and haven’t won in five games in any competition – they’ve drawn four and lost one. Interestingly, Republic of Ireland haven’t won away from home under Trappattoni. True, they beat Georgia 2-1 but that was in Germany on neutral territory due to domestic conflict for the Georgians. What this tells us is that the Irish really don’t play well on the road. If you add all this information up and consider the fact that Cyprus are a little better than the Irish today, you have to wonder why the hell odds show 3/1 on a home win. I’m taking 2/1 with draw no bet because Republic of Ireland do have a couple of match-winners in their line-up but I can’t see an away win today so it’s a pretty sound bet in my eyes!
France vs Romania – Romania +1.75 at 13/8. I don’t need to tell you all why France are shit, do I? The fans don’t like the manager, the players feel the additional pressure, the big name stars don’t perform, they only tend to score if Franck Ribery bails them out etc. etc. Romania will be missing Adrian Mutu for this game, which does make me a little hesitant with my call, but having watched these two sides lock horns in the European Championships last year, I’m confident it’ll either be a draw or an away win. Why? France cannot penetrate a stout Romanian defence, as they can’t with most defences. They’ve not scored more than one goal in a game in their last seven attempts in all competitions. The visitors will be happy to take a point when the hosts really need three. Giving Romania a +1.75 handicap at 13/8 looks a potentially really good bet because as I said previously, the hosts really struggle to score goals and there aren’t many defences more organised than the Romania defence on their day.
Peru vs Uruguay – home win with +1.75 handicap at 10/11. This is easily my riskiest call of the day but I like it! Peru are on a horrific run of form and just can’t seem to beat anyone. However, Uruguay are an extremely unpredictable side – it’s very wise to never rely on them to do anything other than what they’re not supposed to do. They’re missing Diego Forlan for this skyward trip, which is a big loss in my eyes, not just as a striker but as a leader. Uruguay failed to win here the last time they came here and despite Peru sitting rock-bottom of the group, they still rarely lose at home having only been beaten twice at home out of seven games. Make no mistake – this is one of the toughest away trips you can make as a South American footballer. The height above sea level does a lot of damage to players and Peru frankly need that advantage to give them the chance that I’m giving them! The only result I can’t see occurring in this game today is an away win despite the Uruguayans having the better squad. The visitors just aren’t good on the road with only one away win in this campaign. For me, taking Peru +1.75 handicap at 10/11 could be a very good bet indeed if things go as I expect them to.
Chile vs Venezuela – home win with -1.75 handicap at evens. Chile are the new sharpshooters in South America with some very talented footballers emerging and a freescoring style of football that the Chileans have not embraced since the days of Ivan Zamorano and Marcelo Salas. However, four wins from their last five qualifier says that the Chile side is making the World Cup their next stop. In their way today, however, are lowly Venezuela, who frankly shouldn’t be in the way for long. Despite their recent impressive results in the group, Venezuela remain one of the weaker nations in South America and have a tough trip today to make it worse. I think Chile should walk this game with some considerable ease and think you’ll find some good value in a home win with -1.75 handicap at evens.
Liege vs Oostende – away win at 6/4. Simply put, this is what I call a “momentum” bet. There’s not too much quality difference between the two sides, although I do think Oostende are the better side here, but the form guide tells you this will be an away win and I agree. Liege haven’t kicked off properly yet this season with two defeats and one draw in their opening three games. Visitors Oostende, by contrast, sit atop the Tweede Klasse with three wins from three games. In my experience, games between closely matched sides with no particular rivalry tends to be decided by the form of either side and today’s form side is Oostende so 6/4 on the away win could be worthwhile today.
Braband vs Thisted – away win at 4/5. Newly-promoted Braband aren’t going to stay in the Danish 1st Division very long if they maintain their current self-destruction. Four games, four defeats and an average of two goals per game conceded says that Braband are keen to move back down to the Danish 2nd Division. They cannot stop conceding and find goalscoring very tricky at the moment. Thisted are no world-beaters but they’re competent enough to win this game. They’ve won two games from four this season and although concede rather easily themsevles, they tend to score more than their opponents today. I can’t see a dominating performance but an away win looks likely at 4/5.
Leeds United vs Stockport County – home win with -1.75 handicap at 5/6. Leeds United are too good to be in League One and Stockport County will be lucky to still be in League One next year with their current form and financial difficulties. Five wins from five says that Leeds United not only have ability but momentum on their side and an average of two goals per game says they’re more than capable of breaking the -1.75 handicap against Stockport County today. Easy enough? Not nearly as easy as winning the bet at 5/6, which really should happen today!
Notts County vs Burton Albion – over 2.5 goals at 4/5. This is the easiest call I’ve made all day, which means it’ll probably fuck up haha! Both of these two sides are notorious for one thing; goalscoring. Burton Albion have been quite smart and realised that they cannot defend after promotion from the Conference and thus adopt the ancient Real Madrid art of “We’ll score one more than you”. This ideology means they’ve scored eleven goals and conceded nine in their opening five games. Notts County are rarely out of the news for various reasons but from a footballing perspective, they’re the biggest goalscorers in the division as they average nearly three goals per game. Put all these statistics together and we have an over 2.5 goals outcome, which is why odds of 4/5 on this selection surprise me somewhat!
Torquay United vs Bournemouth – away win at 6/4. This is quite a risky call but Bournemouth are good enough to do it. Four wins from five games says that Bournemouth’s financial issues aren’t affecting their players nor performances. Torquay United have found life back in League Two difficult with three defeats in five games and don’t really have the quality to match Bournemouth today. True enough, Plainmoor is a difficult venue for most sides but south coast Bournemouth shouldn’t have any great issues with the momentum they have currently. 6/4 on the away win looks a potential bargain.
Netherlands vs Japan – home win with -1.75 handicap at 5/6. This one speaks for itself, really – I’m just surprised the odds are as good as they are! Netherlands weren’t overly impressive against England in their recent friendly but Japan, like all Asian sides, tend to struggle with good European oppositions. Netherlands have more than enough ability to overcome Japan in this friendly game and the visitors don’t really have enough to match them. I would emphasise a little caution due to the game being a friendly but frankly this is a bit of a no-brainer. 5/6 on -1.75 handicap looks a steal!
Banga Gargzdai vs FK Siauliai – home win at 7/5. This was quite a tough call for me to make because I rate FK Siauliai higher than I do Banga Gargzdai, if only a little. However, the visitors have an atrocious away record with seven defeats from nine games and the hosts have a decent enough home record (four wins, two draws and six defeats) to make it count against FK Siauliai today. Make no mistake, this is a risky game and a risky call but Banga Gargzdai are capable of taking all three points today and it could prove to be good value at 7/5.
Queretaro vs Monterrey – away win at 13/10. An away win in Mexico? Surely not?! Normally I wouldn’t go near this kind of game but the abysmal form of little Queretaro and the good form of a good Monterrey side tells me an away win is more than possible here at 13/10. However, Mexico isn’t a nation that witnesses many away wins either domestically or internationally so do approach with caution but Monterrey really should win this game so it could be a good bet at 13/10 as the visitors do have a better team too!
Levante vs Cadiz – home win at 5/6. We were unlucky with Levante last week after they let a 2-goal lead slip away to newly-promoted Villarreal II but I can’t envision a similar mistake today against newly-promoted Cadiz. The visitors have already tasted defeat and a decent Levante should make light work of little Cadiz. Whereas I don’t believe Levante has the strength that they did when they competed in the Primera Liga, I do believe they’ve got more than enough strength to be a solid side in the Segunda Liga, something I don’t believe Cadiz are capable of. A home win at 5/6 looks pretty imminent here in my eyes; I’m just surprised the bookies don’t favour it more!
Cordoba vs Villarreal II – home win at 10/11. Villarreal II scraped a result in their opening game at home to Levante but I can’t see them doing the same again today. Cordoba may have got off to an awful start but they were one of the best home sides in the Segunda Liga last year and that wasn’t for no reason. They’re a good mid-table side and entertain a weak outfit in Villarreal II, a side that really shouldn’t be able to cause them problems. Momentum may be an issue but Cordoba have the ability to win this game and 10/11 looks like some great odds to see the home win come in at!
Recreativo de Huelva vs Castellon – home win at 4/5. Although I rate Castellon quite highly, I do think they tend to stumble against the bigger sides, cue my call of a home win today. A 0-0 opening day draw with Hercules Alicante is far from an embarassing result – in fact, I consider it a rather good result – but the point remains that Castellon struggle with the bigger clubs. Recreativo de Huelva, newly-relegated from the Primera Liga, are one of those sides. The hosts today have already claimed three points in this league with a win away to Real Union Club de Irun in the Basque country, which is always a tough place to go. Recreativo de Huelva have signalled their intent to be back in the Primera Liga next year and I can’t see mid-table/higher table Castellon being able to prevent them taking three points today. 4/5 on a home win looks a good bet here.
Port Talbot Town vs The New Saints – away win at 4/5. These are the kind of odds that you only get in early season in the Welsh Premier League. Why? Well, The New Saints are a lot better than Port Talbot Town but at the start of any season anywhere it’s hard to gain momentum. That said, The New Saints currently have a 100% record with three wins from three games and will be looking forward to locking horns with a Port Talbot Town side that they’ve beaten three times in their last five meetings. The hosts have made an indifferent start to the campaign but will take comfort from the fact that The New Saints haven’t beaten them at their own ground for some years now. That said, momentum and ability favours the visitors today so 4/5 on the away win looks a good bet.
As ever, any questions/explanations required, feel free to email me at thefootytipster@gmail.com. For the complete picks listing, see below!
World Cup Qualifiers – European section:
Ukraine vs Andorra (10) -2.75 handicap
Scotland vs Republic of Macedonia (4) 1-1
Russia vs Liechtenstein (10) -2.75 handicap
Azerbaijan vs Finland (6) under 2.5 goals
Armenia vs Bosnia-Herzegovina (5) 1-1
Moldova vs Luxembourg (7) 2-0
Bulgaria vs Montenegro (6) over 2.5 goals
Denmark vs Portugal (5) 1-0, draw no bet
Hungary vs Sweden (6) 2-1
Israel vs Latvia (8) 2-0
Turkey vs Estonia (9) 3-1
Georgia vs Italy (7) 0-1
Switzerland vs Greece (5) 0-0
Poland vs Northern Ireland (7) 2-0
Slovakia vs Czech Republic (7) over 2.5 goals
Croatia vs Belarus (8) 2-0
Austria vs Faroe Islands (9) under 2.5 goals
Cyprus vs Republic of Ireland (6) 1-0
Iceland vs Norway (6) 1-2
France vs Romania (4) 0-1, draw no bet
Spain vs Belgium (8) 2-1
World Cup Qualifiers – South American section:
Colombia vs Ecuador (7) under 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Peru vs Uruguay (7) 1-1
Paraguay vs Bolivia (8) -1.75 handicap
Argentina vs Brazil (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Chile vs Venezuela (9) -1.75 handicap
World Cup Qualifiers – North American section:
USA vs El Salvador (10) -1.75 handicap
Honduras vs Trinidad & Tobago (8) 2-1
Costa Rica vs Mexico (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
World Cup Qualifiers – Asian section:
Bahrain vs Saudi Arabia (6) 1-2
World Cup Qualifiers – African section:
Malawi vs Guinea (7) 1-2
Rwanda vs Egypt (4) 0-0
Gabon vs Cameroon (6) 2-2
Ivory Coast vs Burkina Faso (9) -1.75 handicap
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Faroe Islands U21 vs Moldova U21 (8) 1-1
Estonia U21 vs Georgia U21 (7) 0-0
Serbia U21 vs Slovakia U21 (8) 2-1
Albania U21 vs Azerbaijan U21 (6) under 2.5 goals
Latvia U21 vs Russia U21 (8) 0-2
Austria U21 vs Scotland U21 (6) 2-1
Norway U21 vs Croatia U21 (7) 1-1
Australian A-League:
Gold Coast United vs Sydney FC (6) over 2.5 goals
North Queensland Fury vs Brisbane Roar (7) 1-2
Belgian Tweede Klasse:
Beveren vs Tubize (7) both sides to score
Liege vs Oostende (8)
Turnhout vs OH Leuven (7)
Brussels vs Dender (7)
Tournai vs Red Star Waasland (6)
Lierse SK vs Standaard Wetteren (8)
Brazilian Serie A:
Palmeiras vs Gremio Barueri (8) 2-0
Sport Recife vs Botafogo (7) 0-0
Gremio vs Vitoria (8) 2-1
Chinese Super League:
Guangzhou Yiyao vs Changsha Ginde (7) 2-1
Dalian Shide vs Chongqing Lifan (6) 1-0
Hangzhou Lucheng vs Shenzhen FC (5) 0-0
Tianjin Teda vs Chengdu Blades (7) over 2.5 goals
Henan Jianye vs Jiangsu Shuntian (7) 2-1
Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai (6) 1-0
Danish 1st Division:
Braband vs Thisted (7)
English League One:
Charlton Athletic vs Brentford (8)
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Wycombe Wanderers (7)
Bristol Rovers vs Millwall (6)
Carlisle United vs Tranmere Rovers (6)
Gillingham vs Exeter City (8)
Leeds United vs Stockport County (9) -1.75 handicap
Milton Keynes Dons vs Huddersfield Town (6) over 2.5 goals
Norwich City vs Walsall (7)
Southampton vs Colchester United (6)
Yeovil Town vs Swindon Town (5)
English League Two:
Rotherham United vs Chesterfield (5)
Aldershot Town vs Hereford United (7)
Bury vs Accrington Stanley (7)
Cheltenham Town vs Dagenham & Redbridge (5)
Crewe Alexandra vs Macclesfield Town (7)
Lincoln City vs Darlington (6)
Notts County vs Burton Albion (8) over 2.5 goals
Port Vale vs Grimsby Town (7)
Shrewsbury Town vs Bradford City (8)
Torquay United vs Bournemouth (7)
Finnish Ykkonen:
FC Hameenlinna vs Viikingit Helsinki (6)
Jippo Joensuu vs KPV Kokkola (5)
International Friendlies:
Jordan vs Malaysia (6) under 2.5 goals
Namibia vs Swaziland (5) 1-1
South Korea vs Australia (6) 1-1
Netherlands vs Japan (9) -1.75 handicap
Uzbekistan vs Iran (6) 1-0
Oman vs North Korea (5) 1-1
Angola vs Senegal (6) over 2.5 goals
England vs Slovenia (9) -1.75 handicap
Germany vs South Africa (8) 2-0
Latvian Virsliga:
Tranzits Ventspils vs Blazma Rezekne (7) 1-1
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Kruoja Pakruojis vs FK Taurus Taurage (6) 0-1
Banga Gargzdai vs FK Siauliai (7) 2-1
Mexican Primera Division:
Queretaro vs Monterrey (8) 1-2
Tigres UANL vs America (6) 1-2, draw no bet
Cruz Azul vs Indios (8) 2-0
Pachuca vs Jaguares (7) 1-0
Northern Irish Premier League:
Institute vs Ballymena United (7)
Glenavon vs Coleraine (6)
Portadown vs Dungannon Swifts (7)
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Gimnastic de Tarragona vs Girona (7)
Huesca vs Las Palmas (6)
Cordoba vs Villarreal II (7)
Recreativo de Huelva vs Castellon (8)
Cartagena vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (7)
Levante vs Cadiz (8)
Swedish Superettan:
Mjallby Solvesborg vs Ljungskile (7)
Welsh Premier League:
Bala Town vs Caersws (7) under 2.5 goals
Bangor City vs Llanelli (6) 2-2
Connah’s Quay Nomads vs Rhyl (8) 0-2
Newtown vs Newi Cefn Druids (6) 1-0
Port Talbot Town vs The New Saints (8) 1-2
Porthmadog vs Neath Athletic (6) 0-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!