Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warsaw
FreeFor membership details, go here.
Today’s secondary featured game is the Ekstraklasa encounter between Cracovia Krakow and sleeping giants Legia Warsaw. The hosts have made a habit of randomly signing players whereas the visitors have under-achieved all season long so we should have a fairly interesting game here.
Cracovia Krakow have mysteriously brought in about eight players over the transfer window that nobody really knows anything about, which is bizarre in every sense. Why do such a thing mid-season? They cannot possibly galvanise and play as a unit after no more than six weeks together. Cracovia do have some good players like Slovakian centre-back Jarabica, ex-Legia Warsaw defender Mierzejewski, and attacking engine Nitbazonkiza but their depth is non-existant and the sale of striker Bartosz Slusarski to Lech Poznan during the transfer window is sure to have hit them hard. Before the winter break, Cracovia were scoring goals but without Slusarski, I think they’re going to struggle with that side of things. Despite the signing of ex-Wisla Krakow defender Nawotczynski, who is usually injured, I still think Cracovia’s defence is poor enough for them to be relegated. They’re usually quite spirited but with so many new players and very few leaders, I simply cannot envision Cracovia getting a result here.
Legia Warsaw aren’t a favourite side of mine to bet on because their displays have often been lethargic over the past couple of years, especially this season. However, they’ve been impressive over the break, playing well in some friendlies with their transfer activity being rather shrewd. They’ve drafted in towering Czech striker Hubnik on loan from Sigma Olomouc and Slovenian defender Kehnar as Skorza finally begins to assemble a team that is not only capable of playing well enough to win the Ekstraklasa but also a side that plays like they’re capable of winning it. They’ve been encouraged with Wisla Krakow’s sales over the window, especially with only Iwanski leaving themselves for Manisaspor in the Super Lig, so they should be motivated here. In Vrdoljak they have one of the best midfielders in the division; in Radovic they have a player re-born, and in Mezenga they have the potential to score against anyone if he maintains his focus. Legia will miss Kielbowicz and Komorowski for this game as far as fairly important absences go but against a disorientated and unconvincing Cracovia side, it shouldn’t show much.
If Legia can’t motivate themselves for this game with Wisla having lost some of their most important players over the transfer window then they’re useless, to be blunt. They’ve looked good lately and the signing of Hubnik gives them a great option in attack so I expect a good Legia display here. If they don’t show up then they can draw this game but if they play as I expect them to then the win looks a bargain at 6/5 as they’re twice the side that Cracovia are, irrespective of what the Ekstraklasa table shows.
Team news – Legia Warsaw miss Szalachowski, Komorowski, Rybus, and Kielbowicz.
Verdict: Legia Warsaw to win at 6/5.
Fridays’ Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Colon de Santa Fe vs Gimnasia De Le Plata – home win at 4/5.
Hosts Colon have started the Clausura campaign well with a comfortable 2-0 win against Quilmes and a 1-1 draw at a good but somewhat “new” Banfield side. They’ve already got a good foundation; all they lacked over the last year or two was consistency, in my view. Just look at their attackers – Higuain, Larrivey, and now Cano all available as a partner for veteran Fuentes – that’s a superb attack! Colon are a side I like to bet on because their ability is often underestimated due to how poorly they play when they have no confidence/momentum. However, whilst they’re on the ball, they’re a good side and that should be seen tonight.
Visitors Gimnasia De La Plata aren’t a side I like to bet against because they’re usually a nightmare to break down. However, new boss Angel Cappa is trying to make them attack more and that’s a dangerous move because they’re not a good attacking side and his tactics means that they lose their defensive strength. It didn’t show during their battling 1-1 draw at San Lorenzo de Almagro but oh boy did it show at home to Olimpo last match as Gimnasia inexplicably lost 1-3 in a terrible game – it’s probably the worst I’ve seen them play for some time. Olimpo are not good enough to score three against anyone of their own making so that tells you a lot about how bad Gimnasia were. If they take that approach here then they’ll be destroyed and Cappa is shrewd enough to know it. I think we’ll see a defensive Gimnasia return here and that should make the game go under 2.5 goals rather than the over that there would inevitably be if they deployed the same tactics as they used against Olimpo.
However, I’m still all over the home win here. Colon with momentum are strong and they’re playing a side that they know they can beat so the home win looks favourable here, especially at generous odds of 4/5. Bizarrely, Angel Cappa has named Gimnasia’s starting eleven for tonight’s game already – he named it last night, in fact, which I have strong opposition for as it’s stupid. Cappa has basically given the hosts enough time to prepare to face them and given that Colon are the better of these two sides, I think it’s a really stupid move on his part. Their line-up is as follows: Monetti, Rieloff, Masuero, Aguero, Sapetti, Gonzalez, Rinaudo, Aued, Neira, Schelotto, and Cordoba with Pellegrino, Fontanello, Casco, Castro, Encina, Pacheco, and Vizcarra on the bench.
With the above stupidity and quality difference mentioned above, I think Colon are too generous to be overlooked at 4/5 although I expect a narrow home win rather than a flambuoyant display.
Verdict: Colon de Santa Fe to win at 4/5.
Slavia Prague vs Brno – lay Slavia Prague at 5/4.
I’ve been waiting for months to go against Slavia Prague again and after all that time I see that their first game back is against a mediocre Brno team? Boo!
Nonetheless, I’m all over the lay here as Slavia Prague winning this game being priced at 4/7 is farcical! Slavia Prague had a lot of problems earlier this season due to their financial issues and this resulted in them losing a lot of quality players. Well, the transfer window that has just passed saw the same thing occur again with Slavia Prague parting with most of their midfield – Jaroslav Cerny leaving for Ankaragucu, Tijani Belaid leaving for Hull City, Adam Hlousek leaving for Kaiserslautern, and Hocine Ragued leaving for Karabukspor. Hell, even Milan Cerny tried to fashion a move to Russia’s Rostov-na-Donu but failed a medical so he’s back in Prague. This means that Prague’s one remaining strength – midfield – has been destroyed and they look like cannon fodder to me. Ironically, I expect that to galvanise the supporters and make the team more spirited in a bizarre sort of way as Slavia Prague is the working man’s club in Prague – Sparta Prague are the moneybags team – so I expect them to work hard. However, I just can’t see them scoring goals anymore – where will they come from? Only Kisel’s set pieces are of any use to them anymore as the Slovakian winger is deadly with them but there’s so little else in their team that it’s unreal. In addition to the afore-mentioned, Kisel is a doubt for this game, as is experienced monster Vicek in attack so where are the Prague goals coming from? Brno’s defence is susceptible but Prague have to have something going forward and I just don’t see anything here.
Brno actually outplayed Slavia Prague earlier this season and biarrely threw away a 2-0 lead to lose 2-3, which demonstrates how poor their defending can be at times, hence their Gambrinus Liga placing. However, don’t misunderstand their league placing – they’re near the foot of the table solely through their defending as their goalscoring is pretty damn good. In fact, only Slovan Liberec outside of the top five have scored more goals than they have in the Gambrinus Liga this season so I expect Brno to smell blood here as a single goal could very well be all that they need to overcome their impotent hosts.
Brno aren’t a particularly good side but for the first time in a while, Brno bring more experience into this tie than Slavia Prague do, which could be instrumental here. The likes of Polach, Michalek, and Stresnik should provide a lot of support for Kalabiska and Hodek in attack and I don’t see how Slavia Prague will outscore them as a result. Even if Slavia take advantage of Brno’s lax defending – are they going to score more goals than Brno? I just don’t see it and therefore there could and should be value in laying Slavia Prague at 5/4.
Team news – Slavia Prague miss Naumov, Gulajev, Hubacek, and Mikula whilst having doubts over Kisel, Cerny and Vicek.
Verdict: Lay Slavia Prague at 5/4.
MyPa Anjalankoski vs Inter Turku – under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Five out of the last seven meetings between these two sides have gone under 2.5 goals because MyPa play boring and defensive football and because Inter Turku are very hard to get the ball off but rarely score goals. Inter competing in a game involving seven goals against FC Honka Espoo last match was just bizarre in every sense. Honka attract goals to them, admittedly, but it’s not like Inter to be drawn into such games so the result surprised me an awful lot.
However, I expect parity to be restored today because both sides generally look as impotent as ever, to be horribly blunt. It aids my cause that this game has acutally been moved to Myyrmaki-halli, which is an indoor arena in Vantaa, so the hosts aren’t actually on their home pitch here. The general concensus is that indoor games produce more goals than outdoor games and there may be some truth in that. However, what we have here are two of the most “under” sides in Finnish football, in my view, so we should see an under here.
If I had to be drawn into the 1×2 market then I’d side with Inter here because they’re simply a better team that plays better football. The reason I’m not entering that market, however, is that only Timo Furuholm scores goals for the visitors and that’s quite restrictive on them as a whole. Inter are a very good side, however, and should dominate the game here. MyPa have an unfortunate ability to score goals from nowhere that I’m hoping will slip by for this match but either way, under 2.5 goals still looks very generously priced at 11/10, which is probably due to the high number of over 2.5 goals games in the Liiga Cup thus far.
Team news – Inter Turku miss Kauko and Parviainen.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Metz vs Chateauroux – home win at 4/5.
I’ve stayed away from backing Metz for a while now but I think it’s time to get involved again. The fact is that they’ve impressed me a lot during three very convincing games, especially against Ajaccio when they could and should have won. Metz have a good side but a poor attack, hence me usually avoiding them. However, the one time that they become dangerous is with belief and with no defeats in three games, it’s fair to say that they have belief again. This is a relegation six-pointer; Metz need to win this game and as they better of these two sides, I fancy them to make it count (for a change!) although they are missing important midfielder Fleurival tonight.
Visitors Chateauroux are one of those sides that tends to win away games that they shouldn’t win so the mildly superstitious side of me. However, from a logic perspective, Chateauroux are a side that Metz could and should beat tonight. The visitors tonight haven’t scored many on the road this season at all, hence them losing half of their away games and winning just three times along the way. They’ve actually not scored for four consecutive away games in all competitions, losing all of those games as a result. They’ve scored just twice in their past five games and although they overcame an able but impotent Stade Lavallois last match, I’m still not convinced by them at all, especially with star striker Dupuis and important defender Reynaud absent tonight.
Metz have to take their chances in this game if they intend winning it and to be honest, they’ve finally got the momentum to do it so they really should be able to. They should be motivated well as a result, not to menton that this is a relegation battle, so I expect quite a feisty game here. However, a usually-solid Metz defence against a Chateauroux attack devoid of Dupluis and a Metz attack against a Chateauroux defence without Reynaud should mean that a narrow home win is a likely outcome here. I’m interested as long as the odds remain at 4/5 or above but I’d leave it if the odds drop.
Team news – Metz miss Fleurival and Englebert whereas Chateauroux miss Balde, Giraudon, Dupuis, and Reynaud.
Verdict: Metz to win at 4/5.
VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Moenchengladbach – home win at 4/5.
I think it’s finally time to climb aboard Wolfsburg as the odds look decidedly generous here.
I watched Wolfsburg’s trip to Freiburg lately and they were desperately unlucky to lose that game, having some very near misses for a good portion of the game. They looked a lot more unified than I expected from what is essentially a bunch of strangers so credit must go to new boss Littbarski for that. Let’s face it – Wolfsburg aren’t short on talent; only cohesion. The likes of Tuncay, Diego, and Helmes are all very talented attacking players so Wolfsburg are not without a threat here, despite the ever-absent Grafite. Wolfsburg can take a lot of positives from their last match and had they converted their chances better then I’m sure they’d have at least drawn the game. Happily, they’re hosting a side tonight that concedes goals for fun and that versus a Wolfsburg side not only due a win but also a Wolfsburg side with plenty of attacking ability makes the home win look tempting here.
A lot of people like going against Gladbach because they’re bottom of the table, something which I’m generally quite opposed to. True, there’s a reason they’re there, but it doesn’t necessarily make them the worst side in the Bundesliga – it means at least one aspect of their game is weaker than anyone else’s but it doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re shit everywhere. Gladbach actually attack rather well and claimed a valuable 2-1 win against Schalke 04 last match so confidence is high. Gladbach have won two out of their last four games and have scored in all four of those games so confidence is high and they shouldn’t be underestimated solely for their league placing. Venezuelan playmaker Arango supporting Idrissou and De Camargo can be a very dangerous combination but as I said earlier, Gladbach’s undoing is their dodgy backline and I think it’ll cost them against a potentially dangerous Wolfsburg side here.
Don’t be surprised if Gladbach score here – Littbarski isn’t a God, after all. However, if Wolfsburg recapture the form that they showed last match then I’ll be surprised to see anything but a home win here. Wolfsburg are generously priced at 4/5 with the above in mind so I’ll stay with a Wolfsburg win here.
Team news – VfL Wolfsburg miss Lenz, Karimow, Klamt, Madlung, Cigerci, Kahlenberg, Kreuels, Scindzielorz, Wolze, Grafite, Klos, Mandzukic, and Polter wheras Borussia Moenchengladbach miss ter Stegen, Dorda, Janeczek, Jaures, Stalteri, and Matmour.
Verdict: VfL Wolfsburg to win at 4/5.
Follow the latest betting odds comparison on this event at www.OddsPortal.com!
Cambuur Leeuwarden vs Volendam – home win at 10/11.
Cambuur are riding the crest of a wave and it’s been a long time coming this season, to be frank! They’re steadily ascending the Eerste Divisie table and with three wins and no defeats from five games, morale is high and the side are playing well as a result. Cambuur have bagged fourteen goals in five games and have done it in style, too, so they should be respected here. Their league placing doesn’t tell the full story at all about how good this side can be and although they’ll unquestionably be disappointed to have allowed a lead to slip against RBC Roosendaal last match, they’re scoring enough goals to beat just about anyone in the division so I fancy them tonight.
It aids my cause that previously high-flying Volendam are no longer playing well. They’ve won just once in their last six games, losing three times along the way. They’ve shipped six goals in their past two games and they’re basically looking very vulnerable as a result. Volendam’s problem is that they’ve only done well this season due to a stout defence but now that’s seemingly left them somewhere along the way, they tend to be on the receiving end of defeats as scoring a single goal isn’t often enough in this division, especially against a very potent side like Cambuur! I think a demoralised Volendam will really struggle in Leeuwarden tonight so I have to favour the hosts here.
Again, I’d leave it if the odds drop as Volendam could suddenly flick a switch and become competent defensively again. However, Cambuur are playing so well at the moment and scoring goals for fun so I think they’ll outscore Volendam tonight, hence my call for them to win at 10/11.
Verdict: Cambuur Leeuwarden to win at 10/11.
Arka Gdynia vs Wisla Krakow – away win at 5/4.
Amusingly, one of Arka Gdynia’s latest friendlies in preparation for the upcoming season was against Bulgaria’s Beroe, which is just hilarious as both sides play the same bland, dour football. Therefore, it wasn’t a great surprise when the game ended in a low-scoring draw. The game itself was played as a mark of respect for the original meeting between the two sides a long time ago, to be fair, but nowadays, these two sides are not the same as they were!
Anyway, back onto this game now! This is both sides’ first game back in the Ekstraklasa following a lengthy break and the bad news is that this game may yet be called off due to extremely cold weather although we’ll only see confirmation of that later today.
If the game goes ahead then I’m all over Wisla here. Arka are a very hard side to break down but if you penetrate their defence then you tend to win because Arka do not score goals. Arka signed exciting Peruvian talent Junior Ross during the transfer window to bolster their attacking options and his pace should prove to be a problem for most sides in the Ekstraklasa if he’s utilised proprely. However, one player won’t make Arka a better side immediately so Arka should still struggle against a frankly superior Wisla side today. The other side of the coin is that Arka’s limited squad is missing too many big players here with two vital strikers -Ivanowski and Labukas – both absent, not to mention promising midfielder Budzinski and the doubts they have over vital defender Bruma.
With the above in mind, you can see part of the reasoning behind my favouring of Wisla here. However, let’s not get too carried away here as Wisla lost both of their legendary Brozek twins to Trabzonspor and goalkeeper Pawlek to Konyaspor. For me, there was no way back for Wisla with those important players departing the club. However, they’ve impressed me by moving swiftly in the transfer market, signing experienced Estonian goalkeeper Pareiko from Tom Tomsk in Russia, Bulgarian hitman Tsvetan Genkov, Hapoel Be’er Sheva midfielder Meliksson, experienced Dutch defender Jaliens, and most impressively of all, Belarusian midfielder Sivakov from Cagliari. All of these players bring additional quality to Wisla that they need in key areas – a lethal finisher in front of goal, an experienced defender at the back, and a good passer of the ball in midfield. Maaskant is one of the few managers in recent years to get Wisla into any kind of order and the Dutchman has them playing some decent football as a result. If his players play well here then they’ll win the game comfortably. As I said earlier, they’re far too good for Arka; the only question is whether they’ll score the necessary quota of goals or not.
Given that the title is now largely to be fought between Legia Warsaw and Wisla Krakow, you have to expect an enthused Wisla display here. True, their signings may take some time to bed in but they’ve still got a good nucleus and their hosts are very depleted so a Wisla win looks far too generously priced here at 5/4, even without defenders Cikos and Bunoza.
Team news – Arka Gdynia miss Budzinski, Ivanowski, Labukas, Glavina, and have doubts over Bruma whereas Wisla Krakow miss Sobolewski, Bunoza, and Cikos.
Verdict: Wisla Krakow to win at 5/4.
Accumulator fodder:
SCR Altach, HJK Helsinki, Ferencvaros, Zwolle, Etoile.
Recommended bets:
Etoile, Ferencvaros, and VfL Wolfsburg at 3/1.
HJK Helsinki and Legia Warsaw at 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Colon de Santa Fe vs Gimnasia De Le Plata (7) 1-0
Olimpo vs Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (6) 1-1
Austrian Liga 1:
Lustenau vs Hartberg (5)
St.Polten vs Austria Lustenau (6) under 2.5 goals
SCR Altach vs First Vienna (8)
WAC/St.Andra vs Grodig (6) over 2.5 goals
Gratkorn vs Admira Wacker (7) over 2.5 goals
Croatian Prva Liga:
Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Osijek (6) 0-0
NK Zagreb vs Sibenik (6) 1-1
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Slavia Prague vs Brno (4) 0-1
English League One:
Notts County vs Charlton Athletic (5) both sides to score
Finnish Liiga Cup:
HJK Helsinki vs IFK Mariehamn (8) -1.5 handicap
MyPa Anjalankoski vs Inter Turku (5) under 2.5 goals
French Ligue 2:
Evian Thonon Gaillard vs Dijon FCO (6)
Istres vs Angers SCO (4) draw no bet
Stade Lavallois vs Boulogne (4) under 2.5 goals
Le Mans vs Sedan-Ardennes (6) over 2.5 goals
Metz vs Chateauroux (6)
Nantes vs Reims (5)
Nimes vs Clermont Foot (4)
Troyes vs Grenoble Foot (5)
Vannes OC vs AC Ajaccio (6) under 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga:
VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Moenchengladbach (6) over 2.5 goals
German Bundesliga 2:
Rot-Weiss Oberhausen vs MSV Duisburg (5)
Union Berlin vs 1860 Munich (6)
Energie Cottbus vs FSV Frankfurt (6) over 2.5 goals
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Siofok vs Gyori ETO FC (5) 1-2, draw no bet
Ferencvaros vs Kecskemeti TE (8) 2-1
Italian Serie B:
Padova vs Piacenza (4)
Livorno vs Ascoli (7)
Mexican Primera Division:
Necaxa vs Santos Laguna (5) 0-1
Dutch Eredivisie:
VVV Venlo vs Excelsior Rotterdam (5) 2-2
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Cambuur Leeuwarden vs Volendam (7)
Den Bosch vs RBC Roosendaal (5)
Helmond Sport vs Sparta Rotterdam (5) under 2.5 goals
MVV Maastricht vs Dordrecht ‘90 (6) over 2.5 goals
RKC Waalwijk vs Veendam (7) under 2.5 goals
Zwolle vs Eindhoven (8)
Emmen vs AGOVV Appeldoorn (6) over 2.5 goals
Telstar vs Almere City (6)
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Cracovia Krakow vs Legia Warsaw (7) 0-1
Arka Gdynia vs Wisla Krakow (7) 0-1
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Academica de Coimbra (6) 1-0
Romanian Liga:
Pandurii Targu Jiu vs Otelul Galati (6) 0-1
Rapid Bucharest vs Unirea Urziceni (7) under 2.5 goals
Singaporean S-League:
Etoile vs Balestier Khalsa (8) 2-0
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Tatran Presov vs MSK Zilina (6) 0-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Tenerife vs Deportivo Xerez (7)
Turkish Super Lig:
Bucaspor vs Bursaspor (6) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!